Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[OMG!WTF!]

It looks to me like the VXX and all the fear index etn's have gone into a parabolic up move which normally would suggest we've reached peak fear and selling. But who knows at this point. It is parabolic relative to the last few weeks. It can stay that way but hopefully we settle down a bit now. I do think 212 on the SPY is the last support that should hold. Still 10% away from that.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Flacker

Hope you were patient, just dipped below $10 briefly.

Think im going to hold off till single digits.

[united]

Me to my family members, particularly the older ones, every freaking day the past two weeks:



Most got out last week but a couple are still trapped in the "it can't go any lower" movement. They may be nearing that point now, but suffered immense losses in the process sadly.

[rain_e]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

The heck happened to Telus today?

Stock Split

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Looking for an angle to profit off of a crisis is a line I'm not willing to cross.

Ignoring the very valid point that stock sales are how public companies raise capital in the first place, think about what you're saying; you are not willing to profit off of the misfortune of others.

What do you think the stock market is? If you are making money, it is because someone else is losing it. The market isn't a cash printer, it's the exchange of assets between buyers and sellers. Whether the market is going up or going down, there are people making and losing money. That is what the market is. People who were bearish on the market got destroyed over the past decade; people lost and made money. The market now going down like it was dropped out of an aircraft is erasing people's gains who held for too long, while others are now profiting on the downward direction of the market.

No matter the market's direction, no matter the external factors that control the direction of the market: if you are in the market to make money, you are relying on the misfortunes of others in some way. The fact that there is a crisis going on is simply an outside variable affecting the price direction of assets in the market.

[Mayo]

Originally Posted by Weitz

CNQ at sub $13 is extremely tempting.

CNQ @ $10 - drooling

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Looking for an angle to profit off of a crisis is a line I'm not willing to cross.

I don't know if this is the biggest virtue signal of all time or what it is?

Why don't you get in now - profit over the next X months (likely off a big bank somewhere that is recklessly shorting the market to profit off of fear) - and then put your profits towards a local charity or laid off workers in Calgary

Then you can virtue signal AND be part of the solution

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

The heck happened to Telus today?


Also wondering why REITs are taking a battering, since they would seem to be more stable.



I had thought about maybe averaging in selectively over the next couple of weeks, but that Imperial College study linked in the Coronavirus thread has me thinking this is a total free-fall now. And the US hasn't even got its virus transmission numbers remotely in yet.

REITs are likely a combination of the overall downward pressure coupled with fears of bankruptcies and foreclosures reducing revenue going forward.

DIR.UN from three weeks ago to today is making me weep though.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

...
Also wondering why REITs are taking a battering, since they would seem to be more stable. ...

Forthcoming tsunami wave of tenants unable to make lease payments, tenants getting bankrupt, landlords unable to re-lease at rates supporting their mortgages...

[flylock shox]

That makes sense re: REITs (and Telus' stock split clears up that mystery - I was totally confused when I saw that change in valuation).



I'm coming around to the idea that only Loblaws is relatively safe now. Maybe utilities, banks, and telecoms. Anything else I should even contemplate hiding my money in? I'm also coming around to the idea that the safest move is just to hold cash for a couple of months at least, or maybe buy some appreciating goods if they go on sale (do Rolexs go on sale?).



Or just buy a lot of hooch so I can barter for necessities, like all the doomsday preppers I've been watching on Crave...

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

...
I'm coming around to the idea that only Loblaws is relatively safe now. Maybe utilities, banks, and telecoms. Anything else I should even contemplate hiding my money in? I'm also coming around to the idea that the safest move is just to hold cash for a couple of months at least, or maybe buy some appreciating goods if they go on sale (do Rolexs go on sale?). ...

This is a common perception mistake. Just because Loblaw and Costco are selling a lot right now due to fears of closures and supply shortages, their valuations are very over-priced. These businesses make a thin net margin (about 3%) based on a through-put volume of goods, for which they do not pay their suppliers until the goods are sold. Their cost of operations is very high and its ratio to revenue can quickly escalate once population's buying capacity dwindles and perishables start going bad. Not a single public stock is safe right now. Neither are private companies. Shrinking cash flows is going to be a recurring theme for the next 6-12 months, unfortunately.

[Resolute 14]

There's also going to be a knock-on effect from all the hoarders.

The thing about the people that bought five-year supplies of toilet paper is the fact that they won't be buying more toilet paper for five years. So the extra revenue those stores made now is pulled out of future revenue. It'll end up zero sum for many products.

[Schraderbrau]

I have been looking to move long term investments from equities to bonds. In 2008 my bonds outperformed my equities by about a 20% differential. Any thoughts on this strategy to weather the storm?

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

There's also going to be a knock-on effect from all the hoarders.

The thing about the people that bought five-year supplies of toilet paper is the fact that they won't be buying more toilet paper for five years. So the extra revenue those stores made now is pulled out of future revenue. It'll end up zero sum for many products.

Does TP go bad? Maybe that triple-ply degrades to double-ply.

Back in my day quality TP lasted 50 years.

[sa226]

Every position you hold needs to be evaluated.

I'm pulling my hair out trying to evaluate my positions. My amateur stock picking skills are really under the gun right now. So I'm doing the best I can to further my evaluation skills.

I count myself somewhat fortunate as my long term portfolio is down about 18% Partially due to luck as I was slowly consolidating our families portfolio into our investing philosophy.

Banks and utilities I think I'll leave alone. Telecoms I'm still evaluating. Every one getting unlimited data is going to hurt, but people consider their internet and devices a necessity these days.

Broad market ETFs I'm still not sure. VCN, XUU, DGRO, ZDH, IDV etc. With market volatility and some long term holds, I may try to get out even and free up some cash.

I'm still resting on the fact that we're still long with our investments. 20 plus years, and a quick look at historical charts show that the market always recovers. But what does it look like on the other side of this?

Sent from my SM-G973W using Tapatalk

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

There's also going to be a knock-on effect from all the hoarders.

The thing about the people that bought five-year supplies of toilet paper is the fact that they won't be buying more toilet paper for five years. So the extra revenue those stores made now is pulled out of future revenue. It'll end up zero sum for many products.

A lot of it will be thrown out, canned goods and frozen food, not because its gone bad but because people don't like old things (and frozen food does go bad anyway)

[MoneyGuy]

If you’re in the equity market and have years, stay there. If you’re sitting on lots of cash, I’d dollar-cost average in over several months (as I’m doing).

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

If you’re in the equity market and have years, stay there. If you’re sitting on lots of cash, I’d dollar-cost average in over several months (as I’m doing).

How many months are you spreading it over, and have you started?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

How many months are you spreading it over, and have you started?

Not who you asked, but I am up to about 50% of my previous brokerage account cash into the market now. I expect to continue to buy more next week.

[bluejays]

Personally, I think there's a ways to go on this correction. In 2008 the market dropped roughly 50%. What makes us think this is lesser of an issue? It relates to health, it's highly contagious, it shows no effects for a few days, and the result is it affects our economy through people not being able to work out of a rational fear. I few days ago I was thinking to myself what the outcome could be and I can't think of anything positive short of a vaccine. And that's 18 months away. So for the minds brighter than mine, at some point the economy may be doing what Italy is doing, and at what point will it be safe to go back to work? It's really the ultimate question in determining when you can normalize your economy.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by fleury

Personally, I think there's a ways to go on this correction. In 2008 the market dropped roughly 50%. What makes us think this is lesser of an issue? It relates to health, it's highly contagious, it shows no effects for a few days, and the result is it affects our economy through people not being able to work out of a rational fear. I few days ago I was thinking to myself what the outcome could be and I can't think of anything positive short of a vaccine. And that's 18 months away. So for the minds brighter than mine, at some point the economy may be doing what Italy is doing, and at what point will it be safe to go back to work? It's really the ultimate question in determining when you can normalize your economy.

I actually think a bigger positive is anti-virals and treatments/recoveries. A vaccine would be great news also, but if we had a great treatment and a lot of recoveries it would do a lot to calm some fears.

And as far as finding a bottom, it's basically impossible. I worked through 2008-09 in this industry, and let me remind you that there was nothing special about March 9,2009. It was just another day, with no particularly glaring news. Just that day, for some reason, people bought more than the sold and they kept doing that. That's how the bottom works. It's possible that one major policy announcement coincides with the bottom, or one piece of bad news that people take as not quite so bad is the bottom, but it's not likely. The old saying is that bottom pickers just get smelly fingers.

(And futures went from pretty solidly green to close to limit down last time I looked...)