The Athletic: Calgary Flames season preview

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I know, it's weird that many Flames fans have come to expect "doom and gloom"

I can't figure out why

I think it's the pages of wallowing in doom and gloom that are making me really look forward to having some actual hockey to discuss.

I wanted a core shakeup through trades. Didn't happen. But now I'm still excited and looking forward to see what this team does with an elite head coach. I don't see a need to bask in the negativity over something I'm supposed to enjoy. It's the same reason I quit watching while Gulutzan was coach I guess.

I get it. Different strokes for different folks. But sometimes over summer this place gets so negative and seems like a big contest to see who dislikes this franchise the most. It gets very tiring after a full offseason. Meaningful games are coming soon though and I think this team may surprise this year with a Darryl Sutter system.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

I think it's the pages of wallowing in doom and gloom that are making me really look forward to having some actual hockey to discuss.

I wanted a core shakeup through trades. Didn't happen. But now I'm still excited and looking forward to see what this team does with an elite head coach. I don't see a need to bask in the negativity over something I'm supposed to enjoy. It's the same reason I quit watching while Gulutzan was coach I guess.

I get it. Different strokes for different folks. But sometimes over summer this place gets so negative and seems like a big contest to see who dislikes this franchise the most. It gets very tiring after a full offseason. Meaningful games are coming soon though and I think this team may surprise this year with a Darryl Sutter system.

I get it.

It's no fun to ready doom and gloom all the time. It's kind of the reality of the situation though, more often than not with this team.

Hopefully this season they can buck the trend.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I get it.

It's no fun to ready doom and gloom all the time. It's kind of the reality of the situation though, more often than not with this team.

Hopefully this season they can buck the trend.

I think the worst part about last season was the lack of effort we all witnessed. Especially the first part of the season under Ward. If this team even comes out and works hard and shows well in the playoffs win or lose people might not be as cheesed around here all the time.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by chedder

Hoping Monahan bounces back to almost point per game, scoring 30 goals and that isn't good enough and is disappointing? Sounds like a perfect 2nd line center to me.

The only way Monny gets 30 goals and 80 points is being perfectly healthy and getting first line minutes with Johnny .

If he’s the second line centre playing with a Coleman and Mangiapane, a very good season would be 20 goals and 50 points.


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[Inglewood Jack]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The only way Monny gets 30 goals and 80 points is being perfectly healthy and getting first line minutes with Johnny .

you'd also have to use a MiB neuralyzer on opponents so they all forget how to defend that line. just reuniting the purple gatorade boys is not going to have them get back to that 2018-19 level.

my expectations for Mony now are 25+30, with dependable defensive play. that second part is still a work in progress, but it's more realistic than trying to get back to PPG.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You just knew the pessimistic posters on this board were going to come out in droves when they saw the OP. Here comes 20 pages of doom and gloom....

Man, even Websters knows what's going on.

Essential Meaning of 'average'

1. a number that is calculated by adding quantities together and then dividing the total by the number of quantities
   • The average of 16, 8, and 6 is 10.
   • Take all these temperatures and find their average.
2. a level that is typical of a group, class, or series : a middle point between extremes
   • His work has been better/worse than average. = His work has been above/below average.
   • His work has been above the average.
3. baseball : BATTING AVERAGE
4. hockey : THE CALGARY FLAMES

[HighLifeMan]

It's funny how Lindholm is statistically a "worse transition" player than Monahan and has had continually decreasing defensive metrics after becoming Gaudreau's center. It's almost as if playing with a one dimensional - high end puck carrier that the transition runs through has an effect on those totals.

If anything Monahan's totals at even strength are going to increase especially in comparison to last year where the injury absolutely derailed his season.

I don't see the center position being an issue whatsoever especially if Dube can comfortably slide over in a situation where an injury arises.

Outside of Gaudreau and Tkachuk this team generally lacks playmaking ability and creativity. That's my main concern.

I expect huge bounce back years from Markstrom and Monahan. Vladar's one game where he got hung out to dry last year really reflects poorly on these goaltending projections.

[Kipper_3434]

Wish the shades of blue weren't so similar . Trying to figure out if markstrom is a top 20 or top 30 goalie ...oof

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

It's funny how Lindholm is statistically a "worse transition" player than Monahan and has had continually decreasing defensive metrics after becoming Gaudreau's center. It's almost as if playing with a one dimensional - high end puck carrier that the transition runs through has an effect on those totals.

If anything Monahan's totals at even strength are going to increase especially in comparison to last year where the injury absolutely derailed his season.

I don't see the center position being an issue whatsoever especially if Dube can comfortably slide over in a situation where an injury arises.

Outside of Gaudreau and Tkachuk this team generally lacks playmaking ability and creativity. That's my main concern.

I expect huge bounce back years from Markstrom and Monahan. Vladar's one game where he got hung out to dry last year really reflects poorly on these goaltending projections.

Yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing Mangiapane - Monahan - Coleman at some point. I think that could be a strong line. Both wingers are defensively strong, and I think Mangiapane is primed for a big year offensively while Coleman could easily get to that 20 goal mark on a line like that. If that line clicks, while Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk continue to impress things then start looking pretty damn good up front. I like Dube-Backlund being the duo on the 3rd line as well.

Another good reason for optimism is the play of Vladar in the pre-season. We know Markstrom is going to get a lot of games (and so far, he's on track to bounce back to his pre-injury levels it looks like), but if Vladar can come in and give us the goaltending he's given us in pre-season consistently? That's a really strong duo.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You just knew the pessimistic posters on this board were going to come out in droves when they saw the OP. Here comes 20 pages of doom and gloom....

Are we only allowed to discuss team previews that paint a rosy picture? That would be fine and all if they existed but all we have to discuss is what is provided by prognosticators and advanced stats crushers. As far as I'm concerned anyone that aligns with this preview is being realist and not a pessimist or optimist. This is what Dom's algorithms calculated. I think most Flames fans would hope the reality is better but it's probably a good base for expectations.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Wish the shades of blue weren't so similar . Trying to figure out if markstrom is a top 20 or top 30 goalie ...oof

top 10

Maybe for the first time in his career he will have a team that actually helps him out defensively

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Are we only allowed to discuss team previews that paint a rosy picture? That would be fine and all if they existed but all we have to discuss is what is provided by prognosticators and advanced stats crushers. As far as I'm concerned anyone that aligns with this preview is being realist and not a pessimist or optimist. This is what Dom's algorithms calculated. I think most Flames fans would hope the reality is better but it's probably a good base for expectations.

I totally agree (although I also think the "realist" self-designation is far too frequently adopted as a cover for pessimism). And I also appreciate and respect those of you who are just as prepared to call out poor performances as you are clearly happy with good ones. What I have absolutely no time for are the guys who never have anything good to say; never seem to be interested in seeing the team do well; never on hand to celebrate the small victories; never do anything here but whine, bitch and complain about management, about coaches, about players, about other posters, about seemingly everything.

You and a few others are definitely not the problem.

[FlamesAddiction]

I think that review is actually fairly optimistic. I expect the team to be in the bottom 10 this season, likely around the the 23rd or 24th spot.

Hard to say for sure. I think the talent is there to be a playoff team, but the push and drive isn't there. Sutter may make the difference as he has been known to get players pushing hard, and adding guys like Pitlick, Lewis, Coleman, and Richardson might also help change the country club culture. So I am not saying a playoff team is an absurd suggestion, but I think the natural and stable state of this roster is bottom 10. It will take a pretty big push to break out of that gravity IMO.

[united]

Here is what the JFresh Roster Builder spits out using the same lineup. Forwards and defence net out very similar to Dom's but JFresh is much higher on Markstrom - JFresh uses three-year weighted while Dom uses two. Centre is a huge concern by this model, too.
*Unsure what Dom uses for goalie workload so guessed 55/27
*Using Dell as a proxy for Vladar as Darth doesn't meet the minimum for that model

[united]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Wish the shades of blue weren't so similar . Trying to figure out if markstrom is a top 20 or top 30 goalie ...oof

If you look on the right side of the image he has Markstrom ranked 17th.

[Calgary4LIfe]

The review is fair I think. That's what the Flames have been for the last 2 seasons, basically. People who have a negative outlook are going to point to this and agree. I can't argue with them.


I also think that there are realistic explanations (not having to put homer glasses on and drink the kool-aid) for seeing things a bit differently. Monahan has been a regular 30 goal scorer, and he started out as one last season until he got hurt. Gaudreau is an elite PPG player. Lindholm and Tkachuk also have that ability. Being able to run 2 lines now with that potential is a FIRST for Calgary, thanks to Mangiapane breaking out and Coleman joining the team. Backlund + Pitlick + Dube on the third? That's going to be a very quick line that will be disrupting other team's top lines. The 4th line - everyone laments Ryan departing, but I say 'good riddance'. Ryan was good when moved up into a scoring line - that depth was nice. However, as a 4th liner, I thought he was useless. This team will put up better numbers - notice how Sutter had them out against the McDavid line? Notice how they scored (though it got waived due to an insignificant off-side 20+ seconds earlier). That's going to be a good 4th line for the Flames this season.


Defence does scare me, I won't lie. I still can't come up with 3 pairings that make sense to me. Zadorov and Gudbranson are both just terrible puck movers, Andersson is good in some ways, but exceptionally weak in other areas. I worry about the transition, I worry about bad unforced turnovers leading to high danger chances against... but Sutter is a guy that can squeeze out blood from a stone, so there's that.


I am not worried about Markstrom in net. He is good. Playing behind a system like Sutter should make him elite (assuming that Sutter fixes some of the defensive concerns I raised in the previous paragraph). Vladar to me is maybe a bit less of a known commodity than Rittich, but the way I see it, he is at a higher level relative to the experience Rittich had when he became the backup in Calgary. Let's face it too - Rittich was unbelievably good for stretches (last season vs Toronto, for one), but he has also been mostly inconsistent. Maybe Vladar just comes in and gives this team a bit more consistency.


So, who knows how this story unfolds? Maybe the Flames fizzle out this season yet again? Maybe with some actual solid coaching, this team plays consistently well all year and becomes a team of nightmares for opposing playoff teams? I am not entering this season with expectations of either - I am simply going to just allow myself to be entertained by whatever may come.



What I do think is that this team is going to be a difficult team for anyone to model properly. This team has been widely inconsistent in prior seasons, and this team is working towards building an identity for itself this season. If they are successful at building that identity, then what I notice is that teams with real identities tend to over-deliver and exceed expectations, just like that less talented 2014/15 team did.

[Igottago]

I think the analysis is spot on. I am leaning slightly optimistic simply because Sutter is behind the bench and I think the top line will be pretty good. But I can see it going the other way as well. Hopefully the first month or two go well because I can see the pressure mounting if they dig themselves a bit of a hole.

[Enoch Root]

I think the review is fair, and based on what it does - rating each player by their performance over the last couple years - it produces just about exactly the result you would expect.

But I think the Flames will be a little better than this, because I think, on balance, there is more potential upside surprises than downside surprises.

Where we can reasonably expect to see better results than the numbers:

1) Markstrom
2) Monahan
3) Tkatchuk

and most importantly:

Sutter.

I think the JFresh prediction that united posted will be closer to the truth: 95 points. But somewhere in the 92-95 point range is probably a really accurate and fair predictor.

[Drunk Uncle]

I think the assessment is fair.

The key to whether the Flames overachieve or underachieve is the defense.

They've tried a bunch of combinations this preseason and most have looked pretty meh to the point I could see them carrying 8D into the season to sort it out.

Find some consistent pairs reliable in our own end and we exceed the 92-95pt mark. Struggle to generate that consistency and we miss the playoffs.

[the_only_turek_fan]

x-Calgary

Believe it!