Francis: Backlund contract talks heating up. Ask is around $5 mil x 5 or 6 years

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Is this a joke? League handed all that to them on a silver platter for $$$$

It's such a unique situation you can't compare...besides, I could have picked a better team with what they were given.

Many fans said that at the time, but the Vegas management has proven that foregoing some present assets for some future assets, while still picking a decent team for now, was the smarter strategy.

If you think it was an easy exercise to field a top team with what they were given, you are very wrong.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Which makes his advanced stats all the more impressive. Guy has a ton of defensive zone starts, and despite not winning a majority of face offs in those starts his corsi is still consistently good.

FO% has little to no impact on Corsi.

Backlund averaged 686 faceoffs taken in the last 2 seasons. His current faceoff % is 48.6, which means he would be expected to win 333 of these 686 faceoffs.

If he improved his faceoff percentage to be exactly 50/50, he would be expected to win 343 faceoffs, and increase of 10 faceoffs over the course of a season, or 0.122 per game.

As long as you are probably within a reasonable range of the average (50%, so probably within 2-3%), FO% really isn't that important and is probably one of the most overrated stats in the game right now.

Unless you are drawing in a 40% or something like McDavid, it really doesn't have a noticeable impact.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

FO% has little to no impact on Corsi.

Backlund averaged 686 faceoffs taken in the last 2 seasons. His current faceoff % is 48.6, which means he would be expected to win 333 of these 686 faceoffs.

If he improved his faceoff percentage to be exactly 50/50, he would be expected to win 343 faceoffs, and increase of 10 faceoffs over the course of a season, or 0.122 per game.

As long as you are probably within a reasonable range of the average (50%, so probably within 2-3%), FO% really isn't that important and is probably one of the most overrated stats in the game right now.

Unless you are drawing in a 40% or something like McDavid, it really doesn't have a noticeable impact.

Ya, I was just trying to highlight that what really matters are his advanced stats. Pointing to his (not that bad) FO% while not acknowledging his Corsi and defensive zones starts just seems disingenuous to me.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Many fans said that at the time, but the Vegas management has proven that foregoing some present assets for some future assets, while still picking a decent team for now, was the smarter strategy.

If you think it was an easy exercise to field a top team with what they were given, you are very wrong.

They haven't proven anything yet...this early success could very well hurt them long term

unless they win the cup because then I can't say a damn thing

Anyway it was a ridiculous post and most agree...shrewdest management in NHL history lol

They got easier expansion rules than any other team plus were the only team picking (usually an expansion is 2+ teams)

[Kovaz]

I really don't think there's a ton of risk that Backlund's play falls off a cliff because of how he plays. His game is built around smart positioning and making quick, responsible decisions with the puck. Plus his skating style is really smooth and efficient, which is another attribute that ages pretty well. IMO it's the guys who aren't good skaters, and the ones that are inefficient but powerful, that really lose a step or two as they age.

Also to those pointing out his plus-minus: the 3M line's shooting percentage has been literally half of what it was last year (4.15% vs. 8.10%). They've actually been even better defensively this year (probably more due to the D behind them, but still). And Backlund's still on 50 point pace despite that.

I've been hoping all along for a 5x5, so anything under $5M is a bonus to me.

[J79]

I’m no fan of Backlund. Never was and probably never will be, but if this is the price I’m happy to keep him.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

FO% has little to no impact on Corsi.

Backlund averaged 686 faceoffs taken in the last 2 seasons. His current faceoff % is 48.6, which means he would be expected to win 333 of these 686 faceoffs.

If he improved his faceoff percentage to be exactly 50/50, he would be expected to win 343 faceoffs, and increase of 10 faceoffs over the course of a season, or 0.122 per game.

As long as you are probably within a reasonable range of the average (50%, so probably within 2-3%), FO% really isn't that important and is probably one of the most overrated stats in the game right now.

Unless you are drawing in a 40% or something like McDavid, it really doesn't have a noticeable impact.

All true, except I have notice that Backlund gets waived out of the circle a lot (and then Frolik or Brouwer has had to take the draw with less than optimal results). I don't know how that factors into the numbers. Getting tossed should give you a FO loss.

[Geeoff]

If this could be 5x4.75 or something that would be amazing. Probably just a matter of sitting down and hammering it out.

[Geeoff]

BTW since Marchessault was brought up. Looking at the stats, he has taken less than half as many faceoffs than Monahan and Backlund. That tells me that he is mostly a winger who has some limited use at centre.

[カナダ人です]

Not sure why people are so concerned about a 5 or 6 year contract that takes him to ~35 years old. People around here like to compare him to elite, 2-way, Selke winning centres like Bergeron and Kesler.

Bergeron is 32 and Kesler is 33, and both are still very, very good.

Backlund at 33-35 will either still be a good 2C, or likely a great 3C IMO...

[Oling_Roachinen]

Marchessault plays on the line with Karlsson. Doubling dipping there if you're counting both as centers.

[FanIn80]

I think Backlund needs to be moved for a top-six winger we can add to our core. Monahan and Janko are our top two C moving forward, and I think it's much easier to cultivate a 3rd line C from the farm than it is a legit top-six wing.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I think Backlund needs to be moved for a top-six winger we can add to our core. Monahan and Janko are our top two C moving forward, and I think it's much easier to cultivate a 3rd line C from the farm than it is a legit top-six wing.

We don't have either in the pipeline right now. Who do you see coming to fill one of those roles?

[Oling_Roachinen]

I think Dube becoming a third line center is a lot more likely than any of the other prospects becoming a top 6 winger.


With that said, a rental Backlund isn't going to get you a bonafide top 6 winger either. So, as an asset depending on cost, I think makes most sense to re-sign him.

[Itse]

We need to move a top six forward to get a top six forward? Say what again?

Since when did centers stop being more valuable and versatile than wingers?

And what's our problem again? Lack of production from the top six, or lack of production from the bottom six and defense?

Moving Backlund for a winger makes zero sense.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They haven't proven anything yet...this early success could very well hurt them long term

unless they win the cup because then I can't say a damn thing

Anyway it was a ridiculous post and most agree...shrewdest management in NHL history lol

They got easier expansion rules than any other team plus were the only team picking (usually an expansion is 2+ teams)

Being the best team in the league in year 1 does not hurt Vegas long term - it practically puts them into Nashville circa 2014 territory, and that's a good thing for a new market.

[Royle9]

Relevant news:

Backlund told the Calgary Sun on Thursday he's less than thrilled the two sides are negotiating in-season.

“It’s not what I wanted, but it is what it is,” Backlund told the Sun. “I wish I didn’t have to deal with it during the season, but it’s part of business and we’re professionals and have to deal with it. Both sides want the best, so we’ll see what happens.

https://www.tsn.ca/backlund-on-timin...anted-1.979627

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Being the best team in the league in year 1 does not hurt Vegas long term - it practically puts them into Nashville circa 2014 territory, and that's a good thing for a new market.

We will see...their plan was to move vets at the deadline. That ain't happening. I would bet a large sum of money they are a worse team next year.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I think Backlund needs to be moved for a top-six winger we can add to our core. Monahan and Janko are our top two C moving forward, and I think it's much easier to cultivate a 3rd line C from the farm than it is a legit top-six wing.

I agree with adding a top 6 winger but would rather deal from a position of strength rather than create another hole. Move a Dman for a winger, we have lots of those and lots of prospects back there

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

We will see...their plan was to move vets at the deadline. That ain't happening. I would bet a large sum of money they are a worse team next year.

Probably a safe bet considering they are the 2nd best team in the league this year.

But they did have it pretty easy, they were the only team picking the cast-offs from the other 30 teams after those teams protected their best 7 forwards, 3 dmen and best goalie or 4 best dmen, 4 best forward and best goalie.

Any blowhard could have put together a team on pace for 116 points in that scenario (better than any season the Flames have ever had save one).