Russia invades Ukraine

[djsFlames]

It's a losing battle any which way you cut it.

How can you expect to occupy and maintain governance over a population that wants you gone.

The only thing they had going for them was when they were targeting military bases/installations only in the initial days.

Now that they're hitting apartments with fire, there's no going back from that. You won't buy allegiance nor submission from those citizens in a million years after killing innocents not inadvertently.

[Fuzzy14]

I don't see how this conflict ends without further military engagement.

Ukraine's position in negotiations is going to be: leave now and we won't shoot you in the back on your way out.

Russia's position in negotiations is: surrender and submit to our terms.

Russia knows that if they walk back from this now, the world is going to spend the next decade+ punishing them for this. They have no choice but to double down.

[GirlySports]

I wonder what China is thinking. There was always a hypothetical, how would America and the World react if they ever attacked Taiwan. Are we seeing this hypothetical in reality? Would it be the same type of response? China is in a stronger position than Russia but does this put the brakes on any Chinese ambition of invading Taiwan? Would an Asian NATO be established?

[Azure]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

It's a losing battle any which way you cut it.

How can you expect to occupy and maintain governance over a population that wants you gone.

The only thing they had going for them was when they were targeting military bases/installations only in the initial days.

Now that they're hitting apartments with fire, there's no going back from that. You won't buy allegiance nor submission from those citizens in a million years after killing innocents not inadvertently.

Exactly.

Russia has already lost. Maybe not right now, maybe in 10 years, but they've lost.

If the West adopts a plan to wean off of Russian oil & gas over the next 5-10 years, Russia is done.

The oligarchs won't like this.

Big question is who really pulls the strings. The oligarchs need oil & gas to continue to flow.

I think we'll wake up one day and hear that Putin committed 'suicide' and that Russia is ready to negotiate.

[djsFlames]

Yeah, if they're going to empty their forces into this... only solution is to get as many Ukrainians out of there as possible. Not that many will listen.

I think people are clinging to this narrative that the tide turned in Ukraine's favour because they deterred the initial wave.

But Putin is crazy enough that no short term economical consequences are going to dissuade him from this.

Russia will be ####ed in the end still, but I think we need to be realistic, forego the patriotic feel-good stories and get these brave people to safety before they are needlessly killed.

Even if ground troops can't overwhelm them, bombs will. And we saw that dam break when they started bombing residents today.

[curves2000]

I really am starting to wonder how long until NATO or some sort of ally military support starts to get involved? What is the end game for them and will they need to be preventative or reactionary ?

To quote beloved Ukrianian Canadian (I believe?) Wayne Gretzky, "Where is the puck going?"

Are we going to follow this trailing puck down the ice or are we going to cut across the ice and intercept it as it goes around the boards? How long of a runway does NATO and the rest of the world have?

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Azure

Exactly.

Russia has already lost. Maybe not right now, maybe in 10 years, but they've lost.

If the West adopts a plan to wean off of Russian oil & gas over the next 5-10 years, Russia is done.

The oligarchs won't like this.

Big question is who really pulls the strings. The oligarchs need oil & gas to continue to flow.

I think we'll wake up one day and hear that Putin committed 'suicide' and that Russia is ready to negotiate.

Well, for their sakes (and Ukraine's), that day better come soon.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by curves2000

I really am starting to wonder how long until NATO or some sort of ally military support starts to get involved? What is the end game for them and will they need to be preventative or reactionary ?

To quote beloved Ukrianian Canadian (I believe?) Wayne Gretzky, "Where is the puck going?"

Are we going to follow this trailing puck down the ice or are we going to cut across the ice and intercept it as it goes around the boards? How long of a runway does NATO and the rest of the world have?

Nato will not get involved militarily if Russia stays in Ukraine.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Nato will not get involved militarily if Russia stays in Ukraine.

Yes. Whether we want to think otherwise or not, I don't see a future where NATO gets involved that doesn't result in a weapon being used against a NATO member, and then we might as well kiss our families goodbye.

Strategically, this needs to end without NATO becoming directly involved. Even if Ukraine falls to Russia.

[Azure]

I don't see NATO getting involved either.

But that is not to say we are not involved in a big way otherwise waging financial war. The oligarchs are not going to like what is happening. I can't see Putin last much longer. I think he was given a wide berth here probably based on a bunch of promises he made.

The other big thing to watch here are the exports on the farming side. Canada might have a big year on that side after the drought and poor crops last year.

[Fuzz]

What if we dissolved NATO and formed a new Allaince called NATA, and then Putin wouldn't have an argument? I think I've got this game figured out.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Azure

Feels like we're living in a warped reality.

Has a country ever made this serious of a strategic screw up? There is literally nothing going right from Russia's perspective right now.

Have to think even if they double down and exert more military power, it still won't help.

Nothing will question the resolve of the Ukrainian people right now.

Who knows, the Russian's still have a ton of military strength that's either just started moving and isn't engaged, or sitting on the border as strategic reserve.



Without re-enforcements, I'm still going to say its not a matter of if, but when the Ukrainian military wears down. There are a lot less of them, and continuous fighting will wear them down, and they will lose their more experienced men and leaders as it goes along.



I expect a major Russian push to happen now that talks have started and broken off.



I'm still on the mind set that the Ukrainians will draw a ton of blood, they will hurt the Russian Military, and fight extremely hard. But another week of Combat ops is just as likely to break the Ukrainian Military.



Add on if Putin is desperate enough to start dropping FAE's Then he's desparate enough for other measures.

[tony-soprano]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1498448724204437508

[calculoso]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1498349668522201099

[Ozy_Flame]

NATO might not get involved, but NATO expanding membership is a reality that Russia will have to deal with (e.g. Finland). One of Russia's goals is (and has always been) to create a buffer of neutral or puppet states. Russia wants Ukraine to either be like Belarus, or shrink to accommodate annexation for supposed "independent republics" (and Luhansk and Donetsk are just the tip of the iceberg).

The smaller Ukraine gets, the more likely they are to join NATO. And then Russia will have no choice but to have NATO on its doorstep.

Even if Russia "wins" this war with Ukraine, they may have cut off their nose to spite their face.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

It's a losing battle any which way you cut it.

How can you expect to occupy and maintain governance over a population that wants you gone.

The only thing they had going for them was when they were targeting military bases/installations only in the initial days.

Now that they're hitting apartments with fire, there's no going back from that. You won't buy allegiance nor submission from those citizens in a million years after killing innocents not inadvertently.

Or why you would want to even try? I dont see any potential endgame that ends well for Russia here.

Assume they destroy the Ukrainian military and take over Ukraine.

Then what?

You've got a determined and motivated populace that not only doesnt want you there, but outright hates you.

And then what?

The entire rest of the world just sits back and says: "Welp. You wont that war. I guess Ukraine is all yours now, fairs and squaresy. Back to business as usual!"

I dont see that happening.

[nik-]

The complete lack of rationality in this action seems to indicate that Putin is clearly suffering from Botox poisoning.

[curves2000]

I am not suggesting that NATO actually get involved or that I want Canadian Forces being deployed directly to Ukraine or anything.

I do think this is evolving a hell of a lot quicker than anybody expected a week ago. 10-15 days ago it was all this UN chatter about diplomacy and peace talks and this just being a threat etc and now we are opening seeing civilians targeted and cities being torched.

Realistically what level of human suffering and tragedy is the the world going to accept in this scenario? I do think we need to quantify this so we are all on the same page. It seems the ground has really shifted very quickly with countries like Canada and Germany, who were VERY hesitant about sending arms, now sending Russian killing equipment.

God knows I have done a lot of rookie analysis on this thread like everybody else but at what stage does the global community just take Putin and his top generals out?

Sure if he attacks a NATO member you react, what about if that is accidental? What if that causes untold damage to said NATO member? What if 2 million Ukrainian's end up being killed in very short order? At what point is he just done so that this is all done?

I really do think some people are forgetting we are literally dealing with a crazed person who's done an insane level of damage, death and destruction in 20+ years.

[tony-soprano]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1498452454626799616

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by curves2000

I am not suggesting that NATO actually get involved or that I want Canadian Forces being deployed directly to Ukraine or anything.

I do think this is evolving a hell of a lot quicker than anybody expected a week ago. 10-15 days ago it was all this UN chatter about diplomacy and peace talks and this just being a threat etc and now we are opening seeing civilians targeted and cities being torched.

Realistically what level of human suffering and tragedy is the the world going to accept in this scenario? I do think we need to quantify this so we are all on the same page. It seems the ground has really shifted very quickly with countries like Canada and Germany, who were VERY hesitant about sending arms, now sending Russian killing equipment.

God knows I have done a lot of analysis on this thread and in this post but at what stage does the global community just take Putin and his top generals out?

Sure if he attacks a NATO member you react, what about if that is accidental? What if that causes untold damage to said NATO member? What if 2 million Ukrainian's end up being killed in very short order? At what point is he just done so that this is all done?

I really do think some people are forgetting we are literally dealing with a crazed person who's done an insane level of damage, death and destruction in 20+ years.

I think people who don't want to intervene believe that is the best way to minimize total human loss and suffering here.

If you believe as I do that Putin would use nukes, then nato jumping in can't be on the table.

If you think a cornered and outgunned Putin would not use nukes, then yeah, we should help out. Quite the gamble, though.