Can you show the math on that, or provide a link? The cheapest Camry is ~26k. The cheapest model 3 is ~53k. I'm interested to see how the numbers play out on your assertion.
I have no idea what he has done. If you look at his spreadsheet it links to a Lexus RX vs a model Y, but at the bottom says model 3 vs Camry. The numbers obviously are not for a Camry.
Ok, I suspect he had played around with a different vehicle. Putting Canadian prices in, I get about 41k for the Model 3, 32k for the Camry. It would be nice to see his original numbers, because his claims make no sense.
Either way I'm not here to convince anyone or change any minds. What I am certain of is EVs by 2030 will account for way more than 5% of sales. If you think that is false then short the stock of EV makers you'll do very well if you're correct. In fact you're retire very rich, 5% adoption in 10 years will mean the death of Tesla and any auto maker that is going all in on EVs which is almost all the big players.
The response you expect? Analyzing someones statements and finding them incorrect? Maybe the numbers make sense for where he is, with rebates and such. I just don't believe every blog article without seeing the numbers myself, because there is a lot of bluster out there in the green energy world.
Anyway, I'm not against EV's, I just like to take a realistic view, and be properly informed. I do agree sales will be way higher than 5% in 2030.
Honestly I didn't take much time to change the values as I'm busy currently, so I'm not going to vouch for my numbers as being 100%, but on quick check I couldn't see how he came up with his, as his original data that he used to write the article doesn't appear to be there anymore.
Barring any actual regulation that excludes the sale of ICE vehicles, I don't see Electric vehicles having much impact (exceeding 5% of global marketshare) within the next 10 years.
This is basically "The churches will be packed at Easter" level thinking while staring at a chart of exponential growth.
Barring any actual regulation that excludes the sale of ICE vehicles, I don't see Electric vehicles having much impact (exceeding 5% of global marketshare) within the next 10 years.
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Dead wrong on this point.
Gm planning 0 tailpipe emissions on all light duty vehicles by 2035. All other manufacturers have similar goals including hydrogen.
It's coming fast and furious due to regulations and it's something people desire. I don't have an EV yet but I know one day I will.
By 2030 new vehicle marketshare is likely 50/50 ice/EV,hydrogen and accelerating at an exponential rate. By 2040 ICE will be a thing of the past. It's just something we have to do no matter the expense.
I have no idea what he has done. If you look at his spreadsheet it links to a Lexus RX vs a model Y, but at the bottom says model 3 vs Camry. The numbers obviously are not for a Camry.
There's multiple tabs on the spreadsheet for different cars, and since the article was from 2019 he must have changed the spreadsheet since then.
__________________ Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
There's multiple tabs on the spreadsheet for different cars, and since the article was from 2019 he must have changed the spreadsheet since then.
Ya, I flipped through them but didn't see one for the article. it looks like it was the first one, because the lower section still says Camry. But then one of his links for "cost to own" is for a Honda.
Would need to re-do the whole thing, and it's Friday, so I'm out!
Gm planning 0 tailpipe emissions on all light duty vehicles by 2035. All other manufacturers have similar goals including hydrogen.
It's coming fast and furious due to regulations and it's something people desire. I don't have an EV yet but I know one day I will.
By 2030 new vehicle marketshare is likely 50/50 ice/EV,hydrogen and accelerating at an exponential rate. By 2040 ICE will be a thing of the past. It's just something we have to do no matter the expense.
50% in 9 years, there is no way that there is the infrastructure to support that.
Anyways, would be great, and im interested in the tech, I just don't think it's actually coming as quick as you all think it's coming. My opinion, maybe I'm wrong, but I'm pessimistic.
EVs don't require as much energy as you think. If your car was as efficient as a Tesla your gas tank would be less than 3 gallons and go 500km on a fill.
50% in 9 years, there is no way that there is the infrastructure to support that.
Anyways, would be great, and im interested in the tech, I just don't think it's actually coming as quick as you all think it's coming. My opinion, maybe I'm wrong, but I'm pessimistic.
Everybody has electricity at their house and the chargers are relatively inexpensive. Realistically I'd very rarely need to visit a public charging facility. This would be a huge advantage IMO. That being said I see 50% adoption in NA with higher adoption rates in Europe and lower rates in third world economies.
Everybody has electricity at their house and the chargers are relatively inexpensive. Realistically I'd very rarely need to visit a public charging facility. This would be a huge advantage IMO. That being said I see 50% adoption in NA with higher adoption rates in Europe and lower rates in third world economies.
Except if 50% of cars are electric it will impact the total power generation and distribution network. That is the infrastructure I'm talking about.
Except if 50% of cars are electric it will impact the total power generation and distribution network. That is the infrastructure I'm talking about.
At 15 kWh / 100 km and 20,000 km / yr that’s only about 3000 kWh of powered 10-12kWh / year for housing.
So somewhere at full adoption somewhere between 25-50% more power required however most charging will be done at night so peak load might not change all that much. In summer due to air conditioning you can get 50% differences in peak to off peak load.
So while transmission and generation may be challenging I think that with better utilization of existing infrastructure with batteries allowing for consistent use rather than peaks and valleys will offset some of these challenges.
I would love an electric car but today reinforced that I need one that is big enough to carry 4 people and a hundred pound dog plus all our stuff for a 4 day trip 250 km away at minus 17. Until that is something I can buy for under $60,000 I won't be in the market.
We have a mid size suv and until the kids and dog are gone anything smaller just wouldn't work for our lifestyle.
And this doesn't even touch the summer when it would have to be a pickup that can tow a trailer 200 plus km then have a place to charge itself for the excursions and trip home.
Don't get me wrong, as soon as all of this is feasible I'll be first in line and I'd also love to have a small electric car to commute in but it just makes no financial sense.
At 15 kWh / 100 km and 20,000 km / yr that’s only about 3000 kWh of powered 10-12kWh / year for housing.
So somewhere at full adoption somewhere between 25-50% more power required however most charging will be done at night so peak load might not change all that much.
But that assumes there will be baseload generators like coal and nuclear that generally don't deviate their output significantly over a 24 hour period. But many of them are retiring in areas pushing EV sales, like Western Europe or California, and where peak demand (cold winter mornings and evenings in Europe, hot summer late afternoon and evening in California) are already very challenging. And these same areas are trying to electrify heating and cooking and move away from natural gas which will further strain their weakening systems.
