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Old 12-23-2020, 09:58 AM   #41
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Great news Moderna is finally approved.

I wonder if we are going to get into a situation where some people will be waiting to get their ‘preferred vaccine’. Like if the Oxford vaccine is available at 65% efficacy, but a person wants to hold out and get the Moderna option. Are we going to be discussing what brand we got stuck with, and will there be feelings of disappointment if you only got what becomes perceived as a lesser option?

Inevitably there are going is going to be a ranking of which ones are the best, as multiple options get approved. Having said that, it is wonderful that it is even going to eventually be something that is discussed, as opposed to ‘will there be an effective vaccine?’
I don't know how it's going to work, but I definitely hope that I get either Pfizer or Moderna, not Oxford. I find myself hoping Health Canada delays the Oxford one, although since I'm not in the first group, it would have to be a long delay to affect me.

I heard once that since Pfizer and Moderna were 90+% effective that it might affect Oxford being approved, since it's effective rate was so much lower. But I can't remember who said it and I only heard it the one time.
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Old 12-23-2020, 10:02 AM   #42
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A Festivus miracle!
This years Festivus pole.

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Old 12-23-2020, 10:07 AM   #43
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I don't know how it's going to work, but I definitely hope that I get either Pfizer or Moderna, not Oxford. I find myself hoping Health Canada delays the Oxford one, although since I'm not in the first group, it would have to be a long delay to affect me.

I heard once that since Pfizer and Moderna were 90+% effective that it might affect Oxford being approved, since it's effective rate was so much lower. But I can't remember who said it and I only heard it the one time.
In the US they have a “equally effective” clause in there medical approvals so that if you want a drug to get approved it needs to be similarly effective to the existing drugs on the market. So there was talk of Oxford not being effective enough to meet that requirement. Not sure if that would apply to pandemic vaccines or if Canada has a similar rule.
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Old 12-23-2020, 10:30 AM   #44
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Absolutely, but on a more individual level I still expect that conversation. I’m referring more to the psychology of having multiple options and human behaviour, but for sure on a macro level it doesn’t really matter.
yes good point, I was going to add this. we are in agreement!
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Old 12-23-2020, 10:31 AM   #45
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^^ Yeah, that's what's called "non-inferiority" and Canada has the same language as the FDA in their COVID-19 vaccine guidance documents. Here's Canada's:

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When comparing a potential vaccine with a COVID-19 vaccine that has already met the efficacy criteria outlined above and been approved by a stringent regulatory authority, a non-inferiority trial design may be used with a non-inferiority margin of less than 10%. This means that the vaccine may show no more than 10% lower efficacy compared to the approved vaccine (lower bound of the confidence interval around the primary relative efficacy point estimate is >-10%).
So the Oxford vaccine wouldn't come close to that unless you accept the 1/2 dose cohort as its own thing, and even then the confidence intervals would be so wide because of the small sample that I don't think the lower bound would get within 10% of Moderna's or Pfizer's (which are both around 90%).

However, it's not clear if the non-inferiority will actually come into play, since as far as I'm aware none of these vaccines are "approved" yet, they've just received emergency authorization. So I don't know if emergency use vaccines count as the benchmark. I believe the UK also has the same language in their guidance documents and they're apparently approving the Oxford vaccine within a week. I imagine it'll eventually get approved in North America, but the FDA (and likely Canada) are probably going to wait until the US trial data comes through on that. The UK/Brazil trials just seem like too much of a mess to really make a good judgement about the efficacy.
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Old 12-23-2020, 10:38 AM   #46
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I have nothing to add other than I'm sick of living like this and I'll be the first in line when my demographic is allowed to get it.
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Old 12-23-2020, 11:02 AM   #47
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They aren't side effects, they are a "robust immunological response".

Body working as intended.
Exactly this.
And further to that, I'd suggest not taking anything to offset this immune response. No advil unless a fever got quite high. Let the body have the intended, robust response. Bring on those beautiful titers
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Old 12-23-2020, 12:48 PM   #48
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Sounds like Pfizer is delivering additional doses in January. Trudeau just announced that they're expecting 250K more doses than previously announced (so 750K total in January from them). Overall, between Pfizer and Moderna they're expecting a little over 1.2M doses by the end of January (and presumably 4.8M over Feb + March if their current estimates hold).

Also of note regarding Pfizer, the US has ordered an additional 100M doses to be delivered by the end of July. The good news for Canada is, as part of that agreement the US government has committed to use the Defense Production Act to assist Pfizer (and other vaccine companies) in getting priority access to raw materials and supplies in order to boost production. This should theoretically allow Pfizer (and likely other companies) to increase their US production beyond their estimates, which would then mean more worldwide supply generally.
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Old 12-23-2020, 01:12 PM   #49
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.
The good news for Canada is, as part of that agreement the US government has committed to use the Defense Production Act to assist Pfizer (and other vaccine companies) in getting priority access to raw materials and supplies in order to boost production.
President Trump used the DPA for testing supplies for Covid. He has not yet enacted DPA for vaccine production. I believe he has mentioned that he would but hasn't. I am not smart enough to understand why this wouldn't be a thing already. With the US' size it seems like a no brainer to start cranking these things out.

It looks like this decision will fall to President-elect Biden.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...n-law-n1252011



edit: also I missed the part where you said " as part of the new deal." It sounds like people expect this be invoked but it is not guaranteed.

Last edited by nickerjones; 12-23-2020 at 01:15 PM.
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Old 12-23-2020, 01:28 PM   #50
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Yeah, my understanding was that Pfizer could only commit to 50M Q2 doses and 50M Q3 doses for the US, unless the government intervened to get them additional supplies. Based on this article, it sounds like that's happening:

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A law dating back to the Korean War gives the government authority to direct private companies to produce critical goods in times of national emergency. Called the Defense Production Act, it’s expected to help Pfizer secure some raw materials needed for its vaccine.
“Operation Warp Speed and the Department of Health and Human Services are using the Defense Production Act to support the production of the six OWS-related vaccines, including Pfizer,” said HHS spokesman Michael Pratt. “Through the selective application of DPA authorities, OWS helps prioritize access to the critical materials and supplies necessary to expand vaccine production in support of U.S. government contracts.”
https://apnews.com/article/health-co...ign=SocialFlow


This won't necessarily boost production for non-US markets (I assume any additional doses produced as a result of the DPA will be to satisfy the US timeline), but it will free up more non-US produced doses for other countries. So it should mean fewer doses from European production going to satisfy US demand.
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Old 12-23-2020, 01:28 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Ryan Coke View Post
Great news Moderna is finally approved.

I wonder if we are going to get into a situation where some people will be waiting to get their ‘preferred vaccine’. Like if the Oxford vaccine is available at 65% efficacy, but a person wants to hold out and get the Moderna option. Are we going to be discussing what brand we got stuck with, and will there be feelings of disappointment if you only got what becomes perceived as a lesser option?

Inevitably there is going to be a ranking of which ones are the best, as multiple options get approved. Having said that, it is wonderful that it is even going to eventually be something that is discussed, as opposed to ‘will there be an effective vaccine?’
People should not have a preference about Moderna vs Pfizer. Other than the logistics, and maybe some propriety aspects to the lipid component, they are basically identical.
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Old 12-23-2020, 06:38 PM   #52
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Sounds like BC is going to stretch the time between doses for Pfizer and Moderna in order to get a higher proportion of vulnerable people vaccinated sooner. Dr. Henry mentioned that because of the fairly high protection after the first dose, they're planning on going for 35 days between doses early on, which will allow a larger number of at-risk people to get at least partial immunity.
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Old 12-23-2020, 08:39 PM   #53
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Sounds like BC is going to stretch the time between doses for Pfizer and Moderna in order to get a higher proportion of vulnerable people vaccinated sooner. Dr. Henry mentioned that because of the fairly high protection after the first dose, they're planning on going for 35 days between doses early on, which will allow a larger number of at-risk people to get at least partial immunity.
I tink Pfizer and moderna have both indicated that there is a wide tolerance on when you can get the second dose. Two weeks to six weeks or something?
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Old 12-24-2020, 12:36 PM   #54
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looks like as of this morning more than 1/1000 Canadians have now been given the first vaccine dose. I realize this is a pathetically small number in the race to herd immunity, but yet somehow I see optimism in this number- I think the Pfizer approval was 2 weeks ago?


https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html
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Old 12-24-2020, 01:11 PM   #55
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looks like as of this morning more than 1/1000 Canadians have now been given the first vaccine dose. I realize this is a pathetically small number in the race to herd immunity, but yet somehow I see optimism in this number- I think the Pfizer approval was 2 weeks ago?


https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html
I am quite the optimist myself. For me that means 1 out of every 1000 people won't get severe illness from disease (in theory). Super exciting.

My wife mentioned that the States number seemed low too. However as of yesterday in the states 1.23 million people have been vaccinated out of 210 million (+/-) adults. Thats a staggering number for a couple weeks with one vaccine.... in my mind anyway.
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Old 12-24-2020, 02:21 PM   #56
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Some states are very much out front with this. Some obviously not.
Illinois has vaccinated more than 1% of the adult population (over 100k vaccinated).
8 states have vaccinated no one.
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Old 12-24-2020, 02:43 PM   #57
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Why do the maritimes have so many Doses. PEI has .8% of its population vaccinated.
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Old 12-24-2020, 02:47 PM   #58
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Why do the maritimes have so many Doses. PEI has .8% of its population vaccinated.
yes this irrationally angers me. there seemed to be (from what I recall) sort of 3 sizes of original batch dose
'big provinces' got a certain amt (quebec and ontario)
alberta and BC got a medium amount
and the other provinces all seemed to get an amount that was 1/2 that of Alberta and BC.



given that Alberta/BC have 8-10x the population of some of those provinces that didn't seem to make much sense- particularly given the relative covid burden..but I guess it is what it is


PEI has currently vaccinated (or reported) at 12 times the rate of Alberta per person. PEI has also had 91 total cases, with zero currently in hospital
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Old 12-24-2020, 02:59 PM   #59
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Why do the maritimes have so many Doses. PEI has .8% of its population vaccinated.
Guessing is because how it is packed and shipped... X amount of vials in a container, combined with smaller populations.
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Old 12-24-2020, 03:01 PM   #60
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Guessing is because how it is packed and shipped... X amount of vials in a container, combined with smaller populations.
Yes was thinking about that, It could be that 1800 doses is the smallest ship able container. If that is the case we should see it balance out over the next week.
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