Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Vail
I think you are understating it.
2+ weeks in and 80 schools have covid cases, 14 outbreaks and one watch. Kids are already starting to catch covid from each other at school and we have to get to June.
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There are 700 Edmonton and Calgary schools so let’s limit the demonator to 1000 for number of schools with Covid potential so as not to skew the numbers with rural schools
Or 80 cases 1000 schools in cities is 8% of schools with cases. Averaging four cohorts per school that means 2% of cohorts have been impacted.
With 10 / 200 days complete (ignoring the first week) we are 5% done school.
I don’t think anyone challenged the idea that if each cohort had to be isolated for two weeks over the course of the year that we would say school was a success.
The question is can we keep community infection down. At 100 cases per day 13% are school age children. This is the plan, it appears to be working as intended. We certainly need to watch the in school spread numbers over the next few weeks because if it is prevalent we will be in trouble. We don’t have significant signs of that yet.
A metric that I can’t find any data for is positive test rate of children before and after start of school adjusted for prevalence of Covid in the general pop. As decisions are made about schools understanding of school spread is increasing the number of people with Covid in the province or if increasing numbers in the province leads to increased numbers in schools.
Where we are failing is in reducing community cases in non school settings.