Buying a car in this mess

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by billybob123

There is always that feeling of "what if" with a car purchase. I've used the Carcostcanada and Unhaggle sheets to figure what is the "best" price, which I'm sure can be beat with more haggling and may not in fact be the "best" price. I like to think "this is the price I'm willing to pay" and then be happy with that price even if I can get it cheaper later.

Look at the bright side - you have a new warrantied car with a baby on the way, that I'm sure you love driving, instead of your old car where you have to debate if you should pay the $2000 transmission job to keep it running.

This. The key to buying new is settling on what you are happy to pay and only paying that.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by flamesfan1297

Not sure if they're all the same, but the one where I live will do in person, by appointment only but they encourage as much as possible done online or over the phone

If the registries are open, does this mean that it’s possible to do the learners’ permit test? That test is mostly just online at the registry, isn’t it?

[flamesfan1297]

Originally Posted by Wormius

If the registries are open, does this mean that it’s possible to do the learners’ permit test? That test is mostly just online at the registry, isn’t it?

It is all online at the registry yeah. I would assume you would just have to call your local registry to make an appointment for it.

[Gundo]

So I pulled the pin and bought a used '18 Ford Explorer just picked it up this morning.

Honestly, I found 3 that I liked that were all the same trim level (Sport) and sent out an email to all 3 salesmen and their managers on the same email. Then played them against each other unit I got what I thought was the best deal. Once I had that I dropped that I had a trade-in on them as well which was even more fun.

Not being face to face an doing the entire deal via email and phone definitely made dealing with the business manager and going back and forth over interest rates easier. Naturally, they tried the whole to get the lower rate you need the extended warranty trick so I sent off another email to all the dealerships saying here is what's on the table and I feel like I'm getting the run-around with my rate and within minutes I got a call back with an interest rate almost 2% lower without the warranty. It wasn't a new purchase so there was an optional 3-month deferral the bank offered if we wanted

So, in the end, I got the Explorer for almost $5000 less than the original ask, I was also able to work the dealerships back and fort and get my trade-in appraisal up to a little over $19,000 from the $14,500 offered initially.

Definitely felt like I was able to dictate a lot of the details in comparison to previous car buying experiences.

[Derek Sutton]

So you got a $35,000 Exploder and opted out of any warranty? There's got to be little factory warranty left. Warranty is always something people think they get hosed on but foregoing warranty tends to be costly option if you plan on owning the vehicle for any length of time.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Derek Sutton

So you got a $35,000 Exploder and opted out of any warranty? There's got to be little factory warranty left. Warranty is always something people think they get hosed on but foregoing warranty tends to be costly option if you plan on owning the vehicle for any length of time.

Well you do inherently lose money on warranty. That’s why it is sold. The question is if you had a 5-10k repair on a vehicle before it was paid off could you afford it. If not buying warranty is a good idea if you can you shouldn’t buy it.

On average it will cost a person more to purchase a warranty.

[Gundo]

Originally Posted by Derek Sutton

So you got a $35,000 Exploder and opted out of any warranty? There's got to be little factory warranty left. Warranty is always something people think they get hosed on but foregoing warranty tends to be costly option if you plan on owning the vehicle for any length of time.

It actually has 18 months factory warranty left, got the lower interest rate (4.1%) and purchased extended warranty at a lower negotiated rate rather than financing it into the cost and paying interest on it.

[3thirty]

Originally Posted by Gundo

It actually has 18 months factory warranty left, got the lower interest rate (4.1%) and purchased extended warranty at a lower negotiated rate rather than financing it into the cost and paying interest on it.

Ford's interest rate is 4.1 right now?

[DownhillGoat]

Originally Posted by 3thirty

Ford's interest rate is 4.1 right now?

On a 2018 it likely isn't financed through Ford.

[GullFoss]

The used car market is going to implode, so just wait it out. Take advantage of the great deals.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The used car market is going to implode, so just wait it out. Take advantage of the great deals.

The time to take advantage of those great deals is... not yet.

[burn_this_city]

With the state of travel and rental car companies near bankruptcy the fleet dumps will drive the used car market down.

[DownhillGoat]

Originally Posted by you&me

The time to take advantage of those great deals is... not yet.

Assuming you're talking the used market, not new.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by DownhillGoat

Assuming you're talking the used market, not new.

You know what they say about assuming...

The message I quoted in my post -

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The used car market is going to implode, so just wait it out. Take advantage of the great deals.

[DownhillGoat]

Originally Posted by you&me

You know what they say about assuming...



The message I quoted in my post -

Yes. Making assumptions makes an ass out of you and umption.

I was genuinely wondering if your thoughts applied to both markets.

[REDVAN]

Looks like my old truck (I bought it last May, 12 years old and 300+ kms) has blown the whole flippin' engine...

Any good deals out there yet? Might be time to try something a little bit newer and stop trying to make it by with #####boxes.

[You Need a Thneed]

I picked up a Chevrolet Bolt on a really cheap 6 month lease. $199 per month.

Wanted to try an EV, this is a good way to try one without much risk.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by DownhillGoat

Yes. Making assumptions makes an ass out of you and umption.

I was genuinely wondering if your thoughts applied to both markets.

Well, since you asked...

Both the new and used automotive market is in for a rough ride. Here are some fun facts -

YoY, US retail auto sales in March were down about 23%... or $35B. In absolute dollars, this is the single biggest decline of any segment of the retail sector, by a factor of about 3. To put it another way, the new car market is shrinking by more than the size of the entire apparel market in the US.

The average quarterly new car sales volume has consistently been in the 4.25 million unit range for about 5 years now. 2020Q1 dropped to about 1.6 million units... or over 62%.

Quarterly sales volumes aren't expected to return to the previous levels until Q2 or Q3 of 2022.

Wholesale auction sales volumes - a leading indicator of the used car retail market - have dropped by as much as 80%, with sell-through rates dropping to as low as 15%... Wholesale dealer auctions typically run close to 90% sale rates.

Used wholesale prices are expected to drop by up to 17% through Q3 of this year and may drop up to 25% over the next three quarters.

Manufacturers and lease companies are expected to drop the residual values on MY20 & MY21 cars by an average of 12%.

Traditionally, rental fleets see their biggest turns through summer. With decreased demand and other financial pressures, many rental companies are expected to maintain a smaller than normal fleet. This could mean an additional 600,000 - 1mm ex-rental units hit the used market at the end of Q3.


So, to summarize - if you can wait, the best deals will be around the end of this year. Used prices will have seen their most significant adjustments by then. On the new side, manufacturers will be reopening production, but sales will remain stagnant. In about six months, the incentives on new cars should be nice and juicy.

However, when it comes to leasing, the finance companies will play it (extra) safe and drop their residuals, meaning even with a pile of incentives and low interest rates, the actual lease payments may end up increasing from current levels.

So, those are my thoughts...

[You Need a Thneed]

^ Jack Carter was offering 6 month leases at a rate essentially just paying the interest.

That’s what I got my Bolt on.

Hopefully in 6 months I can find a great deal on something.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

^ Jack Carter was offering 6 month leases at a rate essentially just paying the interest.

That’s what I got my Bolt on.

Hopefully in 6 months I can find a great deal on something.

Individual dealerships typically don't have much control over the details of finance deals. Finance and lease terms reset monthly... Most deals available today will most likely be better than the ones available tomorrow.