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Old 06-29-2020, 06:01 PM   #201
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https://www.sciencealert.com/was-cor...lert-Latest%29

This article echoes GGG sentiment that the March 2019 test is likely a false positive.

Some key notes:
-they were screening for 3 genes but only tested positive for one and only after 39 cycles of amplification.
-no spike in respiratory diseases locally were reported during that period
-this result suggests the virus was present in the population in March at high enough frequency to be detected but then at not high enough levels to be detected for the next nine months. Doesn't seem plausible for Covid as we know it.

My guess is the sample was contaminated or some other error. Even if they can reproduce the result I think its dubious at best without additional supporting evidence.
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Old 07-27-2020, 02:12 PM   #202
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https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ies-speaks-out

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Shi Zhengli’s group at the Wuhan Institute of Virology has long been at the centre of conspiracy theories about the origins of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. In a rare interview, Zhengli — who has spent more than 15 years studying bat coronaviruses — addresses speculation that the virus could have been created in the institute. “Scientists from around the world have overwhelmingly concluded that SARS-CoV-2 originated naturally rather than from any institution,” she says. “US President Trump’s claim that SARS-CoV-2 was leaked from our institute totally contradicts the facts. It jeopardizes and affects our academic work and personal life. He owes us an apology.”
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Old 07-27-2020, 02:18 PM   #203
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LOL at the idea of Trump apologizing.
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Old 07-27-2020, 11:53 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by nobles_point View Post
From the article:

“However, Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University, New Brunswick, who from the early days of the pandemic has urged that an investigation look into the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 entered humans through a laboratory accident, was decidedly unimpressed. “Most of these answers are formulaic, almost robotic, reiterations of statements previously made by Chinese authorities and state media,” Ebright says.”
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Old 12-01-2020, 01:53 PM   #205
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-1...rt-11606782449

Another test affirming that COVID-19 was very present in the US in 2019. Out of 7,389 blood donations made in December 2019, there were 106 cases. That is quite the positivity rate meaning this thing was around long before researchers and health officials really started sounding the alarm in China about this thing.
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Old 12-01-2020, 03:25 PM   #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros View Post
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-1...rt-11606782449

Another test affirming that COVID-19 was very present in the US in 2019. Out of 7,389 blood donations made in December 2019, there were 106 cases. That is quite the positivity rate meaning this thing was around long before researchers and health officials really started sounding the alarm in China about this thing.
Wonder if we can get similar data on Vancouver. In December I knew a number of people who had awful chest symptoms.
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Old 12-01-2020, 04:42 PM   #207
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I always thought it was weird in the early days of the virus that the infection rate in Richmond, BC was so low given the large Asian population and the frequency of travel between Vancouver and China.
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Old 12-01-2020, 07:41 PM   #208
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Originally Posted by Manhattanboy View Post
I always thought it was weird in the early days of the virus that the infection rate in Richmond, BC was so low given the large Asian population and the frequency of travel between Vancouver and China.
Because more likely it wasn’t widespread in China when they locked down Wuhan and it took some time for enough to get it to spread it quick.

Epidemiologists say it’s unlikely that COVID was circulating that early.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/133...869633537?s=20

https://twitter.com/user/status/1333647437869633537
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Old 12-01-2020, 10:15 PM   #209
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From the above Twitter thread. All 10 posts are a good read questioning whether contamination from the common coronaviruses would cause false positives. I prefer his final piece of logic.


Quote:
The other angle to consider is that if we're supposed to believe that 2.0% of random blood donors in Dec 2019 are COVID+ this would translate to millions of infections in the population at large, in which case we would have noticed due to people dying in large numbers. 10/10
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Old 12-01-2020, 10:21 PM   #210
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The only way I could see it happening, and I read an article on it recently, is that the virus looks to have mutated around Dec/Jan to a more deadly strain, which is what we have now. So could a low impact version have been around months before?
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Old 12-01-2020, 10:36 PM   #211
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Originally Posted by Fuzz View Post
The only way I could see it happening, and I read an article on it recently, is that the virus looks to have mutated around Dec/Jan to a more deadly strain, which is what we have now. So could a low impact version have been around months before?
If you read the twitter thread above, basically says the test they use has a 0.6% false positive rate, and speculates that it would not be a surprising result to see 3x the false positive rate with people who had recently contracted a closely related Corona virus.

Rather than a direct parent of this strain causing the false positives, it's probably a not to distant cousin that was and remains not nearly as dangerous.

I think this goes back to people needed to insert themselves into a narrative that seems to be controlling their lives but feels distant.

Last edited by #-3; 12-01-2020 at 10:38 PM.
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Old 12-01-2020, 10:56 PM   #212
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Based on the paper, the test they used has a 0.7% false positive rate, but the confidence interval of that extends up to 1.6%, so it's possible for every single positive in that sample to be false and still have it fall within the range of the CI.
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Old 12-01-2020, 11:40 PM   #213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #-3 View Post
I think this goes back to people needed to insert themselves into a narrative that seems to be controlling their lives but feels distant.
What is this word sandwich meant to mean?
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Old 12-01-2020, 11:43 PM   #214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros View Post
What is this word sandwich meant to mean?
People feel the need to have gotten Covid in November when that bad Flu was kicking people down. This way they feel part of the story as they were an early hidden case in Canada.
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