The end of the Korean war. South and North Korea agrees to complete denuclearization.

[combustiblefuel]

https://globalnews.ca/news/4171897/n...edium=Facebook

The two Koreas announced they would work with the United States and China this year to declare an official end to the 1950s Korean war and seek an agreement to establish “permanent” and “solid” peace in its place.

The two leaders declare before our people of 80 million and the entire world there will be no more war on the Korean peninsula and a new age of peace has begun,” the declaration said.

As part of efforts to reduce tensions, the two sides agreed to open a liaison office, stop propaganda broadcasts and leaflet drops along the border, and allow Korean families divided by the border to meet. Just days before the summit, Kim said North Korea would suspend nuclear and long-range missile tests and dismantle its only known nuclear test site.

[OutOfTheCube]

I think it’s fair to speak for the rest of the world and say: I’ll believe it when I see it.

[photon]

“common goal of realizing, through complete denuclearization, a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula,” isn't quite the same as what the US has wanted; “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearnization”.

They also didn't define what denuclearization means.

So yeah, Trump can crow about his pending Nobel all he wants, don't count your denuclearnized nations before they hatch.

[Locke]

Is it April Fool's Day?

[GGG]

I think this is one area where Trump deserves some credit.

He became a credible crazy person who would attack NK. Obama, Bush, and Clinton weren't credibly willing to accept the SK casualties. Trump was. Is stupidity was correct from a game theory perspective on how to deal with a nuclear threat

[Looch City]

Seems like it was a couple weeks ago when they were testing missiles and sending threating messages.

Some kind of bipolar disorder?

Put me in the group with "I'll believe it when I see it".

[CaptainCrunch]

Its a good step forward, but to me its the easy stuff we're dealing with, things like verification, sanctions and other things are going to be the tough negotiations. But its certainly a situation that's come a long way.

Who knows where this goes after North Korea and the US show up for their summit between leaders.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think this is one area where Trump deserves some credit.

He became a credible crazy person who would attack NK. Obama, Bush, and Clinton weren't credibly willing to accept the SK casualties. Trump was. Is stupidity was correct from a game theory perspective on how to deal with a nuclear threat

Absolutely. Trump being crazy on twitter and a lot of behind the scenes negotiation. North Korea finally saw that they could not continue to make threats in exchange for lifting of sanctions.

The new South Korean President deserves a lot of credit as well. The previous President Park Gyen Hee was a hardliner against communism just like her dictatorial father in the 70s.

And Kim Yong-Un's sister went to the Olympics and came back saying we've got to change, look at them. We can't solely rely on China for everything. And finally Kim himself was educated abroad. He does have some democratic leanings and doesn't 100% listen to the old guard.

[nik-]

Also, this has nothing to do with their nuclear test site collapsing, effectively shutting down their nuclear testing for the time being regardless.

Nothing at all.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think this is one area where Trump deserves some credit.

He became a credible crazy person who would attack NK. Obama, Bush, and Clinton weren't credibly willing to accept the SK casualties. Trump was. Is stupidity was correct from a game theory perspective on how to deal with a nuclear threat

Disagree. That's like suggesting the school bully deserves the credit for the class reunion because everyone hated his guts and had something in common. I think China was a much bigger player in this than the United States.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/what...e-korean-thaw/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43895428

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8326321.html

One last point, no one, and I mean no one in US government or military believes a nuclear attack on NK is possible, with provocation through an attack initiated by NK. They all know any such action would set dominos in motion that would lead to nuclear annihilation of a number of American cities.

[Plett25]

"Ending the Korean War" by signing a piece of paper is exactly the kind of "win" Trump is looking for.

It sounds great, it sounds substantial, but the Koreas being at war is a technicality. It's been an uneasy peace, but there hasn't been 65 years of war since 1953. And even if the North gives up their nukes, a conventional war could kill 20,000 a day in South Korea. Day 1 of a conventional war would kill close to 10 times as many civilians as died on 9/11.

Even if a conflict ends on day 2, North Korea is a mess and even in a best case scenario, it will take generations for North Korea to close the gap with South Korea. Worst case scenario has anarchy in the North post-Kim. Best case scenario has a unified Korea struggling to absorb millions of brainwashed, malnourished refugees with no marketable skills.

"End of the Korean War" my ass. It's just a piece of paper that changes nothing. Did North Korea only become an issue since they developed a few small nukes? No, it's been a no-win scenario for decades.

[CaptainCrunch]

Funny how peoples images get insta-cleaned up in situations like this

Kim goes from being a complete despot who murdered a relative with nerve gas in a public place, who's executed multitudes, attacked South Korean property and naval assets.

There were actual grounds to arrest him when he stepped across the boarder.

I think we'll get symbolic change, but disagreements will be huge over US troops, and verification, and are we really talking de-nuclearization, or are we talking the end of development, I doubt he's going to give away what he has unless its after a war in which he reunifies the Koreas.

And like him or not, Trump did something that other Presidents have been unable to do, and yes South Korea's President and China absolutely deserve credit, but I think Kim looked at this president and realized that he's different and more of a lunatic then what he was dealing with in the past.

[combustiblefuel]

Nm

[Senator Clay Davis]

What happens to the people of North Korea will be perhaps the most interesting aspect of this. As much as ending the nuclear threat is nice and all, it's worth remembering there are still 25 million people living under brutal, totalitarian conditions. If this ends with no nukes, but those people still living in an alternate reality where they are subject to vast human rights abuses, it's not much of a win overall.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

What happens to the people of North Korea will be perhaps the most interesting aspect of this. As much as ending the nuclear threat is nice and all, it's worth remembering there are still 25 million people living under brutal, totalitarian conditions. If this ends with no nukes, but those people still living in an alternate reality where they are subject to vast human rights abuses, it's not much of a win overall.

The Kim's are only concerned with a few things.

The preservation of their power and wealth

Their image outside of their borders as a boogey man threat

The control of their population as slaves to feed the families wealth and excess

I have no doubt that when Kim went to China they told him to play nice and make an effort, and they did.

But that might be as far as they take it. Anything that effects the Kim's powerbase isn't going to be negotiated way.

Remember that the Kims are always involved in a three way battle between the Military, Internal Security Services and Their overall intelligence services.

Giving away Nukes will completely screw him with the Military, opening his borders with ISS.

I'm pretty sure also that this move was made to placate the very large China favorable factions within the government.

Ending the Korean War means very little and scaling back the border security saves some money, and if Kim can convince the American's and Koreans to pull back on US reliance to secure the border its a huge win for him with his military.

But he will never be open on verification beyond the fact that he's ended development and testing, which he can do because he's got ICBM and IRBM's in his arsenal, he has what he needs to back up his military.

What he's probably going to be willing to give is symbolic and allows him to present a major victory to his government, look I made the American's withdraw troops and we're going to keep the nukes that we have.

[FlameOn]

North Korea has always come to the negotiating table, rattled sabers and pushed international norms because they always knew there was relatively sane leadership on the other side that they could eke out an existence from. When they would try to bully the South Korea, China and the US would just roll their eyes knowing North Korea would never really do anything, give NK some aid and be done with it.

Times are changing though and North Korea no longer see itself dealing with a sanity with the US, China is getting sick of their nuclear saber rattling and US and Chinese interests are starting to align a lot more politically than they do with the Chinese and NK. It was time for them to drop the crazy act.

Also, North Korea would have to invest significant amounts of money to build a new nuclear test site or risk significant nuclear damage to their own country should they want to rattle the nuclear saber again. It probably isn't worth it to them anymore and they'll give up nothing if asked to shut down the program.

North Korea’s main nuclear test site has collapsed following its latest bomb test and could be at risk of leaking radiation, research by Chinese geologists has shown.

As a result, the Punggye-ri site under Mount Mantap has been rendered unsafe for further testing and should be monitored, scientists from the University of Science and Technology of China have said.

Their findings raise questions about Kim Jong-un’s announcement his country was ceasing its testing programme ahead of planned meetings with the US president, Donald Trump, and his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in.

Data was collected following the detonation of the most powerful of North Korea’s six nuclear bomb tests on 3 September, thought to have triggered four earthquakes.

At the time, Japanese media said the detonation caused one of the tunnels to collapse, potentially killing 200 construction workers.

Another similar test “would produce collapses in an even larger scale, creating an environmental catastrophe,” the study said.

Pyongyang said the promise to shut down the Punggye-ri site was to “transparently guarantee” its dramatic commitment to stop all nuclear and missile tests.

“They’re not giving up anything,” Robert Kelley, a former inspector for the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, told Reuters. “That complex, I would guess, has been damaged beyond reuse.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8322971.html

[Locke]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

North Korea has always come to the negotiating table, rattled sabers and pushed international norms because they always knew there was relatively sane leadership on the other side that they could eke out an existence from. When they would try to bully the South Korea, China and the US would just roll their eyes knowing North Korea would never really do anything, give NK some aid and be done with it.

Times are changing though and North Korea no longer see itself dealing with a sanity with the US, China is getting sick of their nuclear saber rattling and US and Chinese interests are starting to align a lot more politically than they do with the Chinese and NK. It was time for them to drop the crazy act.

Also, North Korea would have to invest significant amounts of money to build a new nuclear test site or risk significant nuclear damage to their own country should they want to rattle the nuclear saber again. It probably isn't worth it to them anymore and they'll give up nothing if asked to shut down the program.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8322971.html

Challenge accepted North Korea! Just wait until Justin gets over there....you ever been embarrassed by your own cultural wardrobe?

Get ready...

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

What happens to the people of North Korea will be perhaps the most interesting aspect of this. As much as ending the nuclear threat is nice and all, it's worth remembering there are still 25 million people living under brutal, totalitarian conditions. If this ends with no nukes, but those people still living in an alternate reality where they are subject to vast human rights abuses, it's not much of a win overall.

Having relatives reunite is a big step. Having money and information going in will slowly change the North.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Having relatives reunite is a big step. Having money and information going in will slowly change the North.

The information that goes in will be decided by Kim. They reported the story of the meeting with the South Korean president but muted everything that Kim said, so they can change the narrative to whatever they want. The families will be allowed to visit, but the North Korean's will view these meetings with a lot of suspicion and not allow the spread of information.


The money won't go to the people. It will be given to the North Korean government to use as they will. Emergency relief shipments will arrive at the dock and the North Korean military will take it and distribute this as they see fit.

Kim will not give up power, neither will the rest of that government, and they won't give enough to their people to enable an uprising. And the narrative that North Korea is in better shape then the rest of the world, will continue and the people will be too busy trying to find grass to eat to worry about what's happening.

[metallicat]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Having relatives reunite is a big step. Having money and information going in will slowly change the North.

Glad the north didn't get nuked now?