Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Definitely not, if you think the market is going into recession. And that is a very popular sentiment these days if you listen to stock commentators and portfolio managers on TV.

In general, I just love this "time to buy" notion. Yeah, if you are sitting on oodles cash to invest and if you are confident about these investments being profitable, then maybe. Most retail investors have portfolios of stocks, bonds and a relatively small amount of cash that needs to be there as a buffer. And if the stocks in those portfolios are down, the "time to buy" advice is not that useful.

Well the other side of the coin is that people who can’t stomach this now aren’t going I want to buy back in when/if things go lower. Almost no one is going to invest at the bottom.

Truthfully, if you invested $100 at the peak in the S&P 500 in 2007 and did nothing, it’s worth about $230 at this point. You had some painful times in there, and probably wanted to sell at least a few times, but doing nothing was the best plan.

[snootchiebootchies]

Lots of indiscriminate selling right now, which means lots of great valuations out there. I made some purchases two weeks ago but now wish I had waited because I could have bought those names for even cheaper valuations. But at some point, the selling will stop and it's going to be a good time to step in if you have extra cash to deploy. I think a reversal could happen anytime because I think the selling is overdone and companies continue to buy back their stocks at these lower valuations.

[wwkayaker]

I bought more shares on Friday. I wish I had more money on hand and that the sales would get better.

[jeffporfirio]

Most of my limit sell order on my long term positions have triggered
I'm mostly holding cash on the sidelines until the market recovers, and bagholding some losing position that will probably never recover.

[bomber317]

if you have nothing better to do with your money that is currently tied up in stocks, don't sell.

Unless you have a better investment option, what's the point of selling, especially now?

If you're sitting on cash, and want to invest in stocks, now is a good time to LOOK at certain companies that you can get behind. Look at the charts, look at the financials, look at the companies' outlook and upside. Look at the circumstances behind the stock movements.

I purchased some AAPL / MA / MFST on one of the dips about 3-4 weeks ago. Still about even on those trades even with all of the recent dips. Dividend paying stocks, although not tax favorable due to them being US stocks.

I can afford to sit on those companies even if there is a recession coming. I'm fairly confident those companies will still generate income and ride through a recession.

I'm staying away from Cannabis stocks right now, but I feel you could make a lot of money on those stocks if you can tolerate the risks and the large swings in pricing.

[OMG!WTF!]

I think it's interesting to look at where we are in the big picture. We've been in a price channel on the SPY chart for almost ten years. Trump nudged it up and above that channel and no surprise we've fallen back to it. So I don't see this as a massive drop but rather a return to normal.



From here it all depends on the interest rate announcement today at noon. Trump's impending freak out or not will have an effect too. Fed days are so boring.

Spoiler!

multiple pic upload

[jeffporfirio]

SPY broke 1yr support today.
I personally would not get into any long positions right now. You are better off swing trading the volatility.

[OMG!WTF!]

Yeah I think you look at the bottom of the channel now for support. I would expect it bounces off that. If you need to buy then you could around 235-240. But there's so much uncertainty now. Fed's gonna Fed so that paradigm is over. You need more to go on than valuations for sure.

[jeffporfirio]

We're not at 2016 New Year market rout levels, but getting there. Scary time for holding long-term.

Spread between junk and govt bond yields, which directly correlates to bull/bear markets

[bluejays]

I don't understand, but the US seems to be fearful at this moment. I've lost about 15% of my portfolio in the past few months and really wish there were some Trump punching bags at the gym (though there's probably more to it than just him).

[Johnny199r]

If you don't need the money in the short term (ie investing for retirement) and your time frame is still long term (ie 10+ years) why would you panic and why on earth would you touch your money?

On the other hand, if you can't sleep at night due to the fact you're down 10% and you absolutely need that money short term, why do you have it in the market?

Invest in some index based etfs on a semi annual basis and forget about it for 20 years. If you give in to the nagging thoughts in your head (human nature) you will make some major mistakes and lose money. You cannot time the market.

[bluejays]

I get what you're saying and personally I'm not losing sleep over it, but it's definitely aggravating seeing your money going nowhere in these situations. Personally, I'm saving for a downpayment on home, so there will be a time to withdraw it. I'd rather have a larger lump sum for the downpayment, and with the portfolio down, I'll have to hold off while I make that money up in the meantime.

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by fleury

I get what you're saying and personally I'm not losing sleep over it, but it's definitely aggravating seeing your money going nowhere in these situations. Personally, I'm saving for a downpayment on home, so there will be a time to withdraw it. I'd rather have a larger lump sum for the downpayment, and with the portfolio down, I'll have to hold off while I make that money up in the meantime.

We have had such a long bull run that it's hard to adapt back to reality. I sympathize, but stay the course.

[OMG!WTF!]

I don't know if I'd have a ton of faith in a long term horizon saving your bacon. I think we could have a very prolonged period of low price volatility that just slowly kills returns. Stocks won't go down forever but they can certainly bumble along if nothing catalyzes a new trend up. Anyway, the scariest news in my opinion is this...


https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-a...ic-stagnation/

[Johnny199r]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I don't know if I'd have a ton of faith in a long term horizon saving your bacon. I think we could have a very prolonged period of low price volatility that just slowly kills returns. Stocks won't go down forever but they can certainly bumble along if nothing catalyzes a new trend up. Anyway, the scariest news in my opinion is this...


https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-a...ic-stagnation/

I'll take my chances that in 30 years when I retire, the markets will be significantly higher than they are today and that my money will have grown.

[Shazam]

https://twitter.com/user/status/961562760575205376

[moncton golden flames]

Just getting into investing and wondering how to find undervalued stocks?

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by moncton golden flames

Just getting into investing and wondering how to find undervalued stocks?

It's a big question you have. It depends what your metric is for measuring the "undervalueness" of a stock. If you want to look for stocks with the highest p/e ratios or the most earnings per share or the highest short float or most insider buying, or analyst upgrades, you can do all of that at www.finviz.com. But you'll be frustrated with the results. What you're really looking for is investor perception of value, not actual value. And there's really no measure for that.



Tesla didn't make a cent during its rise from $40 to $300. But investors perceived great value in its potential. When you look at the stocks that made the greatest gains over the last year you generally see stocks that bumbled along with low volatility until something surprised the market that fundamentally changed the way investors perceived that company's ability to make money. A positive drug result for example. A merger, purchase or takeover. New business contracts. Those companies with the biggest yearly gains were not undervalued when the fundamental change happened.



But whatever you decide you're looking for, you need a way to test your hypothesis, back test for results, and move forward with a way to find stocks that have a positive expected result. Finviz will get you started. Finding surprises in the market is a bit harder but by no means impossible.

[Bonded]

Has anyone tried any of the following platforms: https://collective2.com/
https://www.zulutrade.com/


Got my interested piqued by OMG WTF post on Algolabs and have been debating tossing some of my portfolio at some of these automated trade platforms. I feel like the outsized returns = outsized drawdowns as well

[OMG!WTF!]

Still amazing how trend lines are so predictable.....

Spoiler!