Flames hoping an old coach can help Milan Lucic find his game

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Has it become a thing?

I think there's a fairly solid assumption that they wanted him gone at almost any price. That could be due to a room problem, or it could simply be they didn't see him getting top six minutes and felt four years of not seeing that opportunity was bound to effect his attitude, and then the room?

I certainly haven't seen any proclamations or certainties from anyone on the room stuff.

Well wanting him gone at any price only became an assumption once he was traded for Lucic. I don’t recall people saying he needed to be gone before that. Most people were preaching patience IIRC.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think it is totally reasonable to expect an uptick in production from Lucic this upcoming season. How much that uptick is remains the 1 million dollar question.


Lucic is being setup for some success here. He is reunited with Ward who has helped him become an effective NHL'er in the past. He is working with Oates on his skills and, seemingly, his general on-ice awareness and skating. Boston has always been a very structured team and players in that organization play within it. Edmonton - we can all agree on - doesn't seem to play with any semblance of structure. The general talent-level on that team is far below average.


Lucic comes here without any pressure. He is not, unlike James Neal, going to be demanding premium ice time and arguing with the coach about it on the ice in front of the rest of the team. I don't say this often about players, but Neal was trash for 95% of the season in Calgary. A garbage player who added nothing useful, and who scored 6 lucky goals out of his total of 7.



I do think that it makes total sense that the Flames wanted to cut bait with Neal at all costs. He complained to the coach on the ice in full view of the rest of the team regarding his lack of premium minutes, and then put in a TERRIBLE performance the next game. Peters then FINALLY benches him for the last game in the playoffs. What do you think the general sentiment was with Neal there? You can be fairly sure he was really angry and even embarrassed, and I would wince when thinking about him returning next season and bringing that onto the team.


See, this is what I don't get about Neal. We ALL could see he was useless out there. He was slow, wasn't physical, was terrible at making and receiving passes, and his shot seemed like the worst shot on the team (Smith seemed better at passing and shooting than Neal!). Did Neal not see how crappy he was? Or did he simply feel that he just needed more minutes to 'play through it'? Did he legitimately expect to get those minutes in the playoffs when it counted the most? How damn oblivious are you to everything when you have the gall to openly argue with the head coach in front of the team during the single most important period of the season? Then you come in and you put in THAT kind of an effort? Being at fault for the GA on the winning goal for Colorado?



Next season wasn't going to be pretty. Peters gave up on Neal. If that wasn't an upcoming locker room distraction next season, I don't know what would be. To be THAT detached and incognizant of his own play, his teammates' play, the direness of the situation - that's some next level type of audacity to get into an argument with the coach in front of the entire team and cameras demanding more ice time.



You don't have to love Lucic on the team next season. You do have to be happy, however, that there is not going to be ANY issues with roles, forcing undeserving players into unearned opportunities, etc. Lucic is coming here hoping to turn his career around, but at the very least, he is coming here accepting of his role on the team, and actually being a better fit than a lot of people will give him credit for. Anywhere between 10 points and 50 points wouldn't surprise me too much from Lucic. There is reasonable enough arguments to be made of Lucic performing in either direction - enough for me to agree with in both directions.


I am just happy Neal and his 6 lucky goals is no longer on the team. I am just happy that there won't be a huge distraction on this team next season. I am just happy that I won't have to see a player being forced into premium opportunities without earning them. I am just glad that I am not going to see a player drag down every line combination he ever gets put with next season.


Lucic will more than likely bounce up and down the line-up from 4th line all the way up to the 1st line, depending on the circumstances. I think he will have the majority of his time playing on the 3rd and 4th lines, and that's fine with me.



Between Oates helping Lucic in the off-season with his game, Ward being familiar with Lucic already and helping to make who he was back then, the general structure that Calgary plays with, the general skill-level of his future expected line-mates, Lucic's own expectations.. and simply knowing that Lucic is replacing James "The Real Heel" Neal - I will just be happy regardless of how many points Lucic attains. I know he will at least battle for this team and not cause a distraction. Anything else is simply the proverbial cherry on top.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Well wanting him gone at any price only became an assumption once he was traded for Lucic. I don’t recall people saying he needed to be gone before that. Most people were preaching patience IIRC.

I think this is mostly a reaction to the trade, however, wondering "what other reason could there be?" regarding the trade.

As for preaching patience, that was fans. I don't recall hearing that out of the Flames. So different groups, different opinions.

[cannon7]

Lucic has gotten far with average conditioning. If he expects to go further, he needs to show up at training camp in the best shape of his life.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Well wanting him gone at any price only became an assumption once he was traded for Lucic. I don’t recall people saying he needed to be gone before that. Most people were preaching patience IIRC.

Nobody has said anything ... before, during or after.

I'm suggesting the actions show they wanted him gone at any price, or there wouldn't be a Lucic issue in Calgary.

[JackIsBack]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Well wanting him gone at any price only became an assumption once he was traded for Lucic. I don’t recall people saying he needed to be gone before that. Most people were preaching patience IIRC.

Because we were being good fans and we knew that we were stuck with him for four more years (or so we thought). We saw what he did in Las Vegas the year before and we were hoping that he could repeat that and since he had a down year last year, we were hoping he could rebound to near his 2017-2018 performance, in fact, we hoped that all year long last season... we waited and waited for him to break out - and we were patient (as fans) for the most part, we were being good fans.

I for one... was excited about having Neal on our team when we signed him, I had him being penciled in on our 1st (and sometimes 2nd) line... and was surprised when many on here had Lindholm there, and they were right. As the season wore on... I struggled more and more as to where exactly he fit onto this team... and near the end of the year, I was even struggling to place him on our forth line, as there were other options and combinations I liked better. But when the playoffs rolled along, I was again excited that we had Neal with all his playoff experience - I thought, now he'll rebound with that experience and help us in the playoffs... but my hope there too were dashed.

It's called HOPE... we all have it, and many of us still hoped Neal would rebound all year long and then we reignited that hope once the playoffs started. We then reignited it again for next season - we were willing to give Neal even more room and rope to prove himself... then... the Lucic for Neal trade went down - and at first we HATED it... you see, we still had hope for Neal, but we had NONE for Lucic, and besides, we ridiculed that Lucic contract that Edmonton signed practically everyday since it was signed... and NOW... it was OUR contract, and we HATED it.

But then we thought about it... we thought about what Neal did for us last season, we thought about his attitude and we heard about his fit on the team and his whining about that, and his attitude in the room. We thought about Lucic and his willingness to do anything for his teammates and team, even though it was the Oilers, we thought it might be good. Then we thought about what our team lacked during the playoffs and who could offer us something to plug that hole... we didn't need Neal's scoring... we were second in the league without Neal contributing much of anything... but what we needed was some team toughness. We thought about how Lucic puts fear in the heart of his opponents, how he shows up and plays hard and his willingness to play every role with such passion. We thought that 5.25 million is a little high for that... BUT that 5.75 million of that was sunk costs that we couldn't get back anyhow... (or 1.9 million for 8 years post buyout)... we thought that maybe it was worth the risk and certainly it couldn't get worse then NOTHING (Neal's contribution last year), and we save 500,000 per year as a bonus.

So... I'm turning around on the trade... like many people here have and are.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Lucic has gotten far with average conditioning. If he expects to go further, he needs to show up at training camp in the best shape of his life.

By all accounts hasn’t he done that the past few years in Edmonton? Conditioning is important but I think it is overrated. Neal being in better physical shape is not going to see his production jump on the Oilers in my opinion. Earl is about to play on a new team for the 4th straight year. If he feels very comfortable mentally I think there is a chance he finds his game in Edmonton.

Similarly Lucic started to really feel the pressure when the Oilers and his game slipped in his second year with the team. He dedicated himself to being in top shape when last season started but mentally he put far too much pressure on himself and the entire team was u see immense pressure. Maclellan, Chiarelli were on the hot seat at the beginning of last year and the whole team could feel it.

I am being optimistic but I feel Lucic is entering a great situation for his game. He is on a team that has a chip on their shoulder after a incredible regular season that was cut short by an embarrassing playoff loss. The Flames have strong team top to bottom and should be a contender again next year. Lucic adds an element of toughness the GM has been searching for the last 5 years and at the very least he can contribute in providing that deterrent to other teams as well as providing leadership of being a former cup champ.

The tea carrot for Lucic is the fact there is an opening in the top 6 that he can hope to attain with a strong start to the season. Right now it appears Frolik, Bennett, Mangipane would all be well ahead of him on the depth chart but the spot with Tkachuk and Backlund is written in pencil right now.

Basically in a TL/DR point. Lucic doesn’t need to be more than a veteran leader and enforcer in our bottom 6 but there is a path where he can aim to be more. There is no pressure on him here and a fresh start could be what he needs. I think with him it is more about overcoming the mental hurdles than the physical ones.

[JackIsBack]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Lucic doesn’t need to be more than a veteran leader and enforcer in our bottom 6 but there is a path where he can aim to be more. There is no pressure on him here and a fresh start could be what he needs. I think with him it is more about overcoming the mental hurdles than the physical ones.

I totally agree... but an extra step or two would payoff huge dividends if he could muster it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by JackIsBack

I totally agree... but an extra step or two would payoff huge dividends if he could muster it.

To be honest I'm done with "hope" for any 30+ players to find a step, or rediscover something.

Neither guy will.

The win for Calgary that most in the general media don't get is that Lucic doesn't have to to be a better fit in Calgary. Neal is going to be a drag on the Oilers top six until they march him out of it.

[Vinny01]

The Oilers are done hoping that Lucic was going to find his game. The fact he was brought in on a massive 7 year deal and basically sold as being the Hall replacement made it an impossible hill to climb. They were able to take a chance on a guy that had one horrible season but is a scoring winger who had a decade of success prior to.

The Flames decided quickly in their mind that Neal was not going to rebound next year and it was probably made clear by Peters and his staff that they believe Neal is done in the NHL. Neal can easily become the next Heatley and fall straight off a cliff for the next 1-2 years until the Oil can stomach a buyout.

Calgary is likely sick of buying out the FA mistakes and saving $500k on the cap and getting a player better suited to their bottom 6 was appealing enough to take on a contract that contains a NMC and is not one that can be bought out to save cap $.

My personal hope is Lucic is able to be a 10 goal 30pt player while bringing the toughness he is known for. Personally I have no interest in the 3rd round pick and would enjoy Neal continuing his downward trend in the next couple of years.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

The Oilers are done hoping that Lucic was going to find his game. The fact he was brought in on a massive 7 year deal and basically sold as being the Hall replacement made it an impossible hill to climb. They were able to take a chance on a guy that had one horrible season but is a scoring winger who had a decade of success prior to.

The Flames decided quickly in their mind that Neal was not going to rebound next year and it was probably made clear by Peters and his staff that they believe Neal is done in the NHL. Neal can easily become the next Heatley and fall straight off a cliff for the next 1-2 years until the Oil can stomach a buyout.

Calgary is likely sick of buying out the FA mistakes and saving $500k on the cap and getting a player better suited to their bottom 6 was appealing enough to take on a contract that contains a NMC and is not one that can be bought out to save cap $.

My personal hope is Lucic is able to be a 10 goal 30pt player while bringing the toughness he is known for. Personally I have no interest in the 3rd round pick and would enjoy Neal continuing his downward trend in the next couple of years.

Lucic's buy out is actually pretty close to Neal's in a year's time.

Something like $180K per year on a six year buy out difference. Neal is flat at $1.9M, Lucic is rough for a year, better for a year, rough for a year, and then a non factor for three years.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Lucic's buy out is actually pretty close to Neal's in a year's time.

Something like $180K per year on a six year buy out difference. Neal is flat at $1.9M, Lucic is rough for a year, better for a year, rough for a year, and then a non factor for three years.

I don’t believe this is completely accurate. Unless by better for a year you mean $4mil. This is what cap friendly showed me:

If he is bought out next summer, his cap hits are:

20/21: $5,500,000
21/22: $4,000,000
22/23: $5,500,000
2023 through to end of 2026: $500,000

Bought out summer 2021:
21/22: $4,083,333
22/23: $5,583,333
2023 through to end of 2025: $583,333

Bought out summer 2022:
22/23: $5,333,333
23/24: $333,333

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

I don’t believe this is completely accurate. Unless by better for a year you mean $4mil. This is what cap friendly showed me:

If he is bought out next summer, his cap hits are:

20/21: $5,500,000
21/22: $4,000,000
22/23: $5,500,000
2023 through to end of 2026: $500,000

Bought out summer 2021:
21/22: $4,083,333
22/23: $5,583,333
2023 through to end of 2025: $583,333

Bought out summer 2022:
22/23: $5,333,333
23/24: $333,333

And that's why it was dubbed a buyout proof contract.

No matter when you choose to buy out Lucic you'll still be stuck with nearly the entire caphit for the years remaining on his original deal.

You would really only do it if you felt that he wasn't good enough to be the 13th forward on the team.

[Bingo]

Just had a quick look.

Flames buy out Lucic next summer and they're on the hook for a total cap hit $14.4M for six years while the Oilers are on the hook for an AAV of $2.1M

At the same time the Oilers buy out Neal and they have a total cap hit of $11.5M for six years.

Oilers are $11.5M + $2.1M for a total of $13.6M
Calgary $14.4M

Difference 800K over six years.

Basically no difference at all.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Just had a quick look.

Flames buy out Lucic next summer and they're on the hook for a total cap hit $14.4M for six years while the Oilers are on the hook for an AAV of $2.1M

At the same time the Oilers buy out Neal and they have a total cap hit of $11.5M for six years.

Oilers are $11.5M + $2.1M for a total of $13.6M
Calgary $14.4M

Difference 800K over six years.

Basically no difference at all.

I see what you’re saying, but the post you replied to said you can’t buy it out to “save cap $”. Your post seemed to imply that isn’t the case, but in fact you’re just discussing two different aspects (seasonal vs total). Total cap hit is irrelevant in my opinion.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

I see what you’re saying, but the post you replied to said you can’t buy it out to “save cap hit”. Your post seemed to imply that isn’t the case, but in fact you’re just discussing two different aspects.

I think they looked at buying out the Neal contract, or swapping him and getting the Oilers to retain some Lucic salary to make the future look in a year pretty much the same.

Which it is.

Get a player that fits better, but if he doesn't the buy out with the retained salary the buy out is no different than Neal's.

[Heavy Jack]

But the cap hit on the year would be no? That’s what makes buying out Lucic darn near impossible to consider; 4 to 5 million of dead cap space would be hard to stomach especially in our current window of being competitive.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

But the cap hit on the year would be no? That’s what makes buying out Lucic darn near impossible to consider; 4 to 5 million of dead cap space would be hard to stomach especially in our current window of being competitive.

Cap hit in the first three, and specifically year one and three are rough, but then years four and six are nonexistent.

Neal is $2M straight through.

Totals are close to the same with Edmonton taking a hit for part of Lucic's buyout though.

[Rando]

Buying out Milan's contract sucks because you don't get any immediate relief, but the post-contract penalties aren't as harsh however. The extra three years the Flames would be on the hook for a 437k cap hit. The Oilers buying out Neal would be 1.916M for three seasons.

Doesn't matter, buyouts suck. Just be smarter with these singings. Resist filling holes via big money free agency as much as possible.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Cap hit in the first three, and specifically year one and three are rough, but then years four and six are nonexistent.

Neal is $2M straight through.

Totals are close to the same with Edmonton taking a hit for part of Lucic's buyout though.

Of course the totals are close, the money owed is close. Lucic's contract is buyout "proof" however because buying him out offers virtually no relief, which is why you buyout a contract in the first place. You buy out Lucic you're still left with a similar cap hit immediately and you have to replace him on the roster after.

Like I posted above, yes the low hit in years 4-6 are fine but that's not going to matter much since years 1-3 offer nothing in help.