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Old 11-16-2022, 06:59 PM   #7781
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Pence Town Hall on CNN now …

“we need NEW leadership” … “there are better choices”
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Old 11-16-2022, 07:06 PM   #7782
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It's interesting to see Ivanka has completely stepped away and didn't even go to the event yesterday. I'm not going to say that her and Jared aren't terrible people, but from most accounts, they were the only ones keeping the White House sort of on the rails.

I can't imagine Trump has much of a chance of getting through the primaries and winning the general election, but it's hard to imagine how much more awful a second term would be without the moderating family members, and who knows what for a staff.
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Old 11-16-2022, 07:21 PM   #7783
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It's interesting to see Ivanka has completely stepped away and didn't even go to the event yesterday. I'm not going to say that her and Jared aren't terrible people, but from most accounts, they were the only ones keeping the White House sort of on the rails.

I can't imagine Trump has much of a chance of getting through the primaries and winning the general election, but it's hard to imagine how much more awful a second term would be without the moderating family members, and who knows what for a staff.
She issued a statement that she is not going to be involved in politics going forward. Trump really destroyed and and Jared's standing the socialite community and now that they got their $2 billion of Saudi money, why continuing supporting her failing father.
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Old 11-16-2022, 08:09 PM   #7784
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Mike Pence is such a scumbag used car salesman. I have his townhall on CNN on in the background and he has mentioned his "book" like 50 times so far. Eff off. No decent human will pay money for that junk.
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Old 11-16-2022, 08:16 PM   #7785
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I think Trump learned that moderates will stand against him even if they say they're working for him. Later in his tenure he put more and more true believers around him.

If he gets back in that's not the ending point, that's the starting point.
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Old 11-16-2022, 08:41 PM   #7786
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Mike Pence is such a scumbag used car salesman. I have his townhall on CNN on in the background and he has mentioned his "book" like 50 times so far. Eff off. No decent human will pay money for that junk.
That aside, he's also able to come out now, 5 days after midterms and say that Trump was reckless and put him and his family in danger on Jan 6. Why couldn't he say all of this after Jan 6 happened? Why not even before the midterms? Wonder if him coming out now is because of the shift on the right away from Trump after Trump's chosen ones lost in the midterms and Trump's power is now perceived to be less? Pence does what's best for him.
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Old 11-16-2022, 10:36 PM   #7787
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What a surprise.... Not...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1592717086605852674
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Old 11-16-2022, 11:24 PM   #7788
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I really hope we get to learn what Trump has on Lindsey one day, it must be pretty good
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Old 11-16-2022, 11:31 PM   #7789
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I really hope we get to learn what Trump has on Lindsey one day, it must be pretty good
It's kinda sad because everyone already knows the Lady G #### and he's still trying to figuratively phillate Trump publicly, so it doesn't become confirmed that he phillates gigalos litteraly
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Old 11-17-2022, 02:12 AM   #7790
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It’s ‘fellate gigolos literally’

Sorry man, 3 words in a row. I’m a pedant I guess
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Old 11-17-2022, 05:46 AM   #7791
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1593081058676727808
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Old 11-17-2022, 07:43 AM   #7792
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While it would be state by state, I started checking the 1948 election where the Dixiecrats carried several deep south states. One was with 32% or so.

Then I checked 2020 and not all states had 50%+1. Looks like it's a winner takes all, regardless of the winner having a majority of total votes.

Thus Trump would likely render GOP unelectable if he ran as an independent.
Another example is 1992 and 1996 with Ross Perot. Lots of states under 50%. One example: New Mexico where George H.W. Bush won with 38%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_U...ion_in_Arizona
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Old 11-17-2022, 07:49 AM   #7793
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It's interesting to see Ivanka has completely stepped away and didn't even go to the event yesterday. I'm not going to say that her and Jared aren't terrible people, but from most accounts, they were the only ones keeping the White House sort of on the rails.

I can't imagine Trump has much of a chance of getting through the primaries and winning the general election, but it's hard to imagine how much more awful a second term would be without the moderating family members, and who knows what for a staff.
I honestly don't see how Trump can lose the primaries. He has his hard core base and there are a lot of them so it's going to be him against the field. If there's 6 or 7 candidates overall, he's getting 40-45% of the vote right off the start. He's going to win a ton of delegates unless the others drop out really fast.

It'll be very interesting if he does lose, though. He will definitely claim that it's rigged and that the nomination was stolen from him. No question, he would run no matter what. I don't see that happening, though.
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Old 11-17-2022, 08:02 AM   #7794
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I honestly don't see how Trump can lose the primaries. He has his hard core base and there are a lot of them so it's going to be him against the field. If there's 6 or 7 candidates overall, he's getting 40-45% of the vote right off the start. He's going to win a ton of delegates unless the others drop out really fast.

It'll be very interesting if he does lose, though. He will definitely claim that it's rigged and that the nomination was stolen from him. No question, he would run no matter what. I don't see that happening, though.
I guess it really depends on how many other candidates there are and how they play it. In 2016, Republicans didn't take Trump seriously and he was able to pick them off 1 at a time. Contrast that with how the Democrats treated 2020; Bien wasn't particularly strong, so the other candidates were willing to bow out early so the party could coalesce around Biden. (of course that had the Bernie supporters screaming 'conspiracy' but that's a whole different discussion.)

If the moderates/anyone but Trump folks bicker and stay divided, I could see Trump with a path again based on his devoted core. But I think if the party can rally around someone else early and make it a 2 candidate fight, he would probably lose.
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Old 11-17-2022, 08:20 AM   #7795
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I guess it really depends on how many other candidates there are and how they play it. In 2016, Republicans didn't take Trump seriously and he was able to pick them off 1 at a time. Contrast that with how the Democrats treated 2020; Bien wasn't particularly strong, so the other candidates were willing to bow out early so the party could coalesce around Biden. (of course that had the Bernie supporters screaming 'conspiracy' but that's a whole different discussion.)

If the moderates/anyone but Trump folks bicker and stay divided, I could see Trump with a path again based on his devoted core. But I think if the party can rally around someone else early and make it a 2 candidate fight, he would probably lose.
Good points. It sort of depends on how many voters you get as well. A lot of conservative parties in Canada have issues where in their leadership races - the membership skews way to the right of the population - so they end up picking the more extreme/less electable leader over the person who could actual win an election.

US parties have tended to favour electability (i.e. Biden over Bernie) but is the Republican party sliding down that slope where they pick based on a purity test vs electability. They lost a bunch of races in this recent election because they picked awful candidates over more moderate ones.
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Old 11-17-2022, 08:32 AM   #7796
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This ad in retrospect looks beyond terrible for Desantis if he's going against Trump

If I were Trump I would run that ad non-stop in Florida. NON-STOP! DeSantis would take a beating and it would completely confuse the conservative base.
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Old 11-17-2022, 08:45 AM   #7797
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If I were Trump I would run that ad non-stop in Florida. NON-STOP! DeSantis would take a beating and it would completely confuse the conservative base.
100%. Also, this ad plays off like a Saturday Night Live skit.
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Old 11-17-2022, 08:55 AM   #7798
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I really hope we get to learn what Trump has on Lindsey one day, it must be pretty good
I think maybe nothing. I'm leaning towards Lindsey is just a little bitch.

We thought Trump had dirt on tons of these guys, which is why they'd fall into line, but I can't think of a single example of Trump releasing dirt on literally anybody.
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Old 11-17-2022, 09:15 AM   #7799
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The scariest thing about that is that Ivanka is "bowing out of politics". I think that she was one of the few that was able to exercise a modicum of commonsense/control over Trump.
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Old 11-17-2022, 09:45 AM   #7800
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I predict that by the end of 2023, Trump will announce his divorce from Meliana. And then just as we kickoff the 2024 primaries, he will announce that’s he’s going to marry Ivanka with the goal of creating a race of purebred MAGA Americans to lead them for the next century.

And America will accept it and vote him into office.
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