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Old 10-23-2020, 05:35 PM   #21
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The day of reckoning is coming for pro sports. These leagues are built on two foundations that are starting to crumble:

1) Huge TV deals that networks are realizing are money losers
2) Public funding for stadiums/areas are becoming more contentious with each new project

Sports seems taken a lot of money from people who don't actually care about sports (through TV packages and money for stadiums) and finally those people are starting to avoid paying for something they don't want.
I think at some point sports as a whole will be very niche hobbies
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Old 10-23-2020, 08:39 PM   #22
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The day of reckoning is coming for pro sports. These leagues are built on two foundations that are starting to crumble:

1) Huge TV deals that networks are realizing are money losers
2) Public funding for stadiums/areas are becoming more contentious with each new project

Sports seems taken a lot of money from people who don't actually care about sports (through TV packages and money for stadiums) and finally those people are starting to avoid paying for something they don't want.
Pro sports economics have always driven me crazy. I have no problem with owners and players making however many millions of dollars if they are making it from fans willingly buying tickets, watching ads on TV, or willingly subscribing to a channel or service.

Like you said, the problem is all the millions of cable subscribers, and tax payers unknowingly and unwillingly paying cable fees and taxes so these players can make 10 million per year instead of 5 million.
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Old 10-23-2020, 09:11 PM   #23
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The end of US regional sports networks probably makes the Flames more competitive. Ticket prices here are higher than many US teams, but they have bigger areas to stuff the cable package with a regional sports network.

The Canadian regional contracts are more likely to remain high, because hockey is the tier 1 sport here.

Less revenue league wide would bring down the cap, but since US regional contract revenue doesn't come to the Flames, it wouldn't hurt them. The Flames being higher up the league revenue list would be good - maybe next time we need a coach they could hire a top tier choice.
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Old 10-23-2020, 09:25 PM   #24
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The end of US regional sports networks probably makes the Flames more competitive. Ticket prices here are higher than many US teams, but they have bigger areas to stuff the cable package with a regional sports network.

The Canadian regional contracts are more likely to remain high, because hockey is the tier 1 sport here.

Less revenue league wide would bring down the cap, but since US regional contract revenue doesn't come to the Flames, it wouldn't hurt them. The Flames being higher up the league revenue list would be good - maybe next time we need a coach they could hire a top tier choice.
I completely agree with this. The Flames and other Canadian teams have a decent ratio of TV Contract dollars to actual viewers. The teams that have actual fans buying tickets and watching games will fair fine.

A more recent article about Diamond Sports after the Hulu news:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...in-latest-blow

That paints an even more dire picture of their debt situation.

Here are the hockey teams with Sinclair TV contracts:

Arizona Coyotes
Carolina Hurricanes
Detroit Red Wings
Florida Panthers
St Louis Blues
Minnesota Wild
Columbus Blue Jackets
Nashville Predators
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning
LA Kings
Anaheim Ducks
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Old 10-23-2020, 10:58 PM   #25
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Their first lien debt trading in the 60s is a pretty bad sign. That implies a pretty high likelihood of bankruptcy, imo. If that happens, I imagine they are likely to walk away from some of those contracts.
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Old 10-23-2020, 11:12 PM   #26
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You guys realize the streaming services are streaming the cable broadcast right?
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Old 10-23-2020, 11:32 PM   #27
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You guys realize the streaming services are streaming the cable broadcast right?
Not sure where you are going with that?
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Old 10-24-2020, 12:35 AM   #28
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Not sure where you are going with that?
He's saying the source of the stream - the broadcast itself - is from those cable companies that are at risk of bankruptcy.

Not that it would really matter. If the source is altered for the streaming company, there will either be an alternative that would step in (Regional ESPN like TSN/Sportsnet?), or they could produce the product themselves.

The of these new regional deals may be interesting though if it comes to the point that Fox Sports can't operate anymore.
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Old 10-24-2020, 12:48 AM   #29
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I think at some point sports as a whole will be very niche hobbies
Let’s pump the brakes a little on that.

Human beings are not about to get tired of watching other human beings perform incredible physical feats.

The Spanish Flu killed 50M people, and after it went away (and it did go away) in April 1920, Babe Ruth celebrated by starting to play for the New York Yankees.

A readjustment of pro sports economics, sure.

The disappearance of sport to the point of a niche hobby?

No.

The Colosseum in Rome is only 70 years younger than Christianity.

Maybe we should try building ours to last a little longer than 40 years.
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Old 10-24-2020, 08:46 AM   #30
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Let’s pump the brakes a little on that.

Human beings are not about to get tired of watching other human beings perform incredible physical feats.

The Spanish Flu killed 50M people, and after it went away (and it did go away) in April 1920, Babe Ruth celebrated by starting to play for the New York Yankees.

A readjustment of pro sports economics, sure.

The disappearance of sport to the point of a niche hobby?

No.

The Colosseum in Rome is only 70 years younger than Christianity.

Maybe we should try building ours to last a little longer than 40 years.
Circus Maximus was built in 500 BC and could hold up to 150,000 people (about 3 times as much as Colosseum). Those numbers tend to blow people's minds

I also find it fascinating that sports in Rome had so many of the same surrounding phenomenons, such as merchandising, sponsorship deals, advertising and fierce rivalries between fanbases (mostly with chariot racing, which was what Circus Maximus was for).
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Old 10-24-2020, 08:49 AM   #31
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The Flames just inked a new arena deal in the middle of a severely depressed local economy. The appetite for taxpayers to subsidize pro sports doesn’t seem to be going away, as insane as that is. These new NFL stadiums in LA and Vegas are more expensive than an inflation adjusted Apollo mission and received either direct public funding or tax breaks.

I’m not shorting pro sports franchises just yet.
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Old 10-24-2020, 01:21 PM   #32
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The Flames just inked a new arena deal in the middle of a severely depressed local economy. The appetite for taxpayers to subsidize pro sports doesn’t seem to be going away, as insane as that is. These new NFL stadiums in LA and Vegas are more expensive than an inflation adjusted Apollo mission and received either direct public funding or tax breaks.

I’m not shorting pro sports franchises just yet.
I dunno. Everyone who signed that deal knows that they either aren’t spending their own money or won’t be around if the building is later declared a financial disaster. The economic hit of COVID lockdown is only now starting to reveal itself in the form of empty retail spaces, consumer and mortgage loan defaults... and people in seats for full stadiums seems like fantasy well into 2021. There are definitely some franchises that should be shorted
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Old 10-24-2020, 02:07 PM   #33
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I dunno. Everyone who signed that deal knows that they either aren’t spending their own money or won’t be around if the building is later declared a financial disaster. The economic hit of COVID lockdown is only now starting to reveal itself in the form of empty retail spaces, consumer and mortgage loan defaults... and people in seats for full stadiums seems like fantasy well into 2021. There are definitely some franchises that should be shorted
Short the Coyotes.
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Old 10-24-2020, 06:04 PM   #34
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Short the Coyotes.
If the Coyotes can't make it, line up several other teams. Flames included - that new arena isn't getting built with the current deal and this new reality.

Expect an arena 2000-3000 seats short of estimates if it does get built.

If COVID took place shortly before Seattle bought expansion rights and had everything approved by the league, there would be no Seattle Kraken right now.

This industry is in a long term world of hurt. The reality that the league is slowly but surely going to realize. Unless the league takes a %^&* it, open up every arena approach.. there won't be sold out arena's in the U.S. for YEARS

If Trump wins, this virus will go on for possibly his entire second term. There is no willingness to put an end to it federally.
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Old 10-27-2020, 01:38 PM   #35
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If the Coyotes can't make it, line up several other teams. Flames included - that new arena isn't getting built with the current deal and this new reality.

Expect an arena 2000-3000 seats short of estimates if it does get built.

If COVID took place shortly before Seattle bought expansion rights and had everything approved by the league, there would be no Seattle Kraken right now.

This industry is in a long term world of hurt. The reality that the league is slowly but surely going to realize. Unless the league takes a %^&* it, open up every arena approach.. there won't be sold out arena's in the U.S. for YEARS

If Trump wins, this virus will go on for possibly his entire second term. There is no willingness to put an end to it federally.
maybe the Flames could build the first arena build with COVID in mind.
change the plan, have only about 10,000 seats. put them on sliders so they could be moved in order for cohorts to sit together.

the middle class mostly won't be able to affords to go to many games anyway, so higher prices shouldn't be a big deal to the well off.
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Old 10-27-2020, 01:53 PM   #36
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maybe the Flames could build the first arena build with COVID in mind.
change the plan, have only about 10,000 seats. put them on sliders so they could be moved in order for cohorts to sit together.

the middle class mostly won't be able to affords to go to many games anyway, so higher prices shouldn't be a big deal to the well off.
If they were going to build a 10k seat arena, they’d just keep playing out of the Saddledome.

Babe Ruth’s entire career with the Yankees took place following the Spanish flu, which killed 49M more people than Covid has to this point.

This is going to go away, at some point, and when it does, we’ll go back to attending events in public.
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Old 10-27-2020, 02:15 PM   #37
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DAZN is great for NFL. I pay monthly and just cancel it when the season is over. There is also MLB on there, KHL hockey and soccer.

For NFL, it actually has different options for watching pre-recorded games. Highlights, Game in ~20 minutes or Game in it's entirety. Pretty sweet.
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Old 10-27-2020, 08:16 PM   #38
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This is going to go away, at some point, and when it does, we’ll go back to attending events in public.
I don't understand why some people are talking like it isn't ever, and that for the rest of mankind, we'll have to physically distance from each other. Like this is the first ever pandemic that has ever happened.
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Old 10-27-2020, 11:12 PM   #39
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If they were going to build a 10k seat arena, they’d just keep playing out of the Saddledome.

Babe Ruth’s entire career with the Yankees took place following the Spanish flu, which killed 49M more people than Covid has to this point.

This is going to go away, at some point, and when it does, we’ll go back to attending events in public.
Sure this will eventually be controlled. Will it go away? Nobody knows that yet. Comparisons with the Spanish flu are difficult. Remember that was a world where the only way to travel across oceans was by boat and most people still relied on horses or train for long distance overland. Containment was much easier And it still killed 50 million. In a global interconnected human civilization these viruses can be far more difficult to contain. Even an effective vaccine will take years to distribute world wide.

Pro sports is in trouble
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Old 10-27-2020, 11:29 PM   #40
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Remember that was a world where the only way to travel across oceans was by boat and most people still relied on horses or train for long distance overland. Containment was much easier And it still killed 50 million.
Containment of the Spanish flu was not easier, it was impossible. The principal breeding ground for the virus was the huge body of troops awaiting discharge at the end of the First World War, and they had to be repatriated to their home countries (where they spread the virus like wildfire) because they could not simply be kept on the battlefields and left to die.

The Black Death killed nearly as many people as the Spanish flu, out of a far smaller population, in a world that had no railways and no transoceanic travel at all. Modern transportation isn't the game-changer that you make it out to be. Pandemics don't need aeroplanes to spread.
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