Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If he was bought out after next year, the Flames save about $1.3M in cap out of the $15.75M they are responsible for over the 6 years.

Don't get me wrong buying Lucic out less than desirable, that's not the point I was trying to make. I am just trying to say that there isn't as much of a lingering effect of a buyout as there is with Neal.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Is it sillier than inventing numbers to coincide with your original argument to avoid addressing that paying a 4th line player 5.25 per is awful?

It doesn't 'change your math', it changes the entire basis of your argument.

Hathaway just signed 1.5x3

Ferland just signed for 3.5 after a 40 point season.

There's no comparable to suggest what you're saying.

The flames are overpaying their 4th line tough guy by about 3-4 million per year. You don't have to try to prove everything is great all the time.

Inventing?

You don't think a top fighter/physical player would use Reeves current contract as a point of negotiation if Calgary was trying to bring one in?

Sorry man that's not inventing at all. I gave you the numbers based on correcting what the Flames had offered, which was fair. Just said the Reeves comparable going forward would be in play.

We just disagree on most things but I'm not inventing.

Glad to see CanadaMatt is happy though, you get a thanks every time you come after me.

And yeah .... one word answers look silly.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by JTech780

Don't get me wrong buying Lucic out less than desirable, that's not the point I was trying to make. I am just trying to say that there isn't as much of a lingering effect of a buyout as there is with Neal.

I think there isn't much lingering effect because there isn't that much current relief.

But you've raised an interesting point, they could buy him out as much due to the expansion waiver issue as opposed to cap savings.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I think there isn't much lingering effect because there isn't that much current relief.

But you've raised an interesting point, they could buy him out as much due to the expansion waiver issue as opposed to cap savings.

Exactly.

With this clause you can deal him if you can find one of his eight teams that have a nead/fit. If not you can just buy him out.

Or ... if the differential between the player you lose by protecting him or not is small you may not care.

[CsInMyBlood]

Yeah, I'm not buying that Neal is going to have some monster bounce back season due to off season training. He absolutely looked clueless without the puck, was really slow to make decisions and handled it like a hand grenade when he did have it. His shot took forever to get off and was laughable most of the time.

Unless Gary Roberts also installs hockey IQ chips, speed and work ethic upgrades and gives heart transplants I dont see how Neal is going to suddenly bounce back.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I know there has been some video hits with Treliving but is there any substantial coverage or interviews to be found anywhere?

Are all the hockey media people on summer break?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

Are all the hockey media people on summer break?

Yes. Bob Margarita is back and Bob Mckenzie is gone for now:
https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie

[mrdonkey]

The expansion draft issue is an academic point, as the only reason for Lucic not to waive is to be a dick. He’s the last player on this roster Seattle would want to pick up, and if for some reason they did, he’d be closer to home and everyone wins.

The big problem as I see it is the Flames did not receive sufficient compensation for the risk that Neal bounces back for a divisional rival (a 3rd round pick is nothing), the buyout-proof nature of the contract, and the added difficulty in trading/burying him down the line due to the NMC. That is what makes this trade so bad. There should’ve been a more substantial sweetener involved for the added level of risk the Flames have assumed in this contract.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

The expansion draft issue is an academic point, as the only reason for Lucic not to waive is to be a dick. He’s the last player on this roster Seattle would want to pick up, and if for some reason they did, he’d be closer to home and everyone wins.

The big problem as I see it is the Flames did not receive sufficient compensation for the risk that Neal bounces back for a divisional rival (a 3rd round pick is nothing), the buyout-proof nature of the contract, and the added difficulty in trading/burying him down the line due to the NMC. That is what makes this trade so bad. There should’ve been a more substantial sweetener involved for the added level of risk the Flames have assumed in this contract.

An Oilers 3rd pick is just about a 2nd rounder.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Exactly.

With this clause you can deal him if you can find one of his eight teams that have a nead/fit. If not you can just buy him out.

Or ... if the differential between the player you lose by protecting him or not is small you may not care.

This is where I am at in regards to the expansion draft, as of right now we are most likely losing a defenseman in the expansion draft. We have Giordano, Valimaki, Hanifin, Andersson and Kylington all eligible for the expansion draft and we can only protect 3, unless we go with 8 skaters. So that most likely means Giordano and Kylington would be exposed with one likely taken in the expansion draft. Having to protect Lucic doesn't change this.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

The expansion draft issue is an academic point, as the only reason for Lucic not to waive is to be a dick. He’s the last player on this roster Seattle would want to pick up, and if for some reason they did, he’d be closer to home and everyone wins.

The big problem as I see it is the Flames did not receive sufficient compensation for the risk that Neal bounces back for a divisional rival (a 3rd round pick is nothing), the buyout-proof nature of the contract, and the added difficulty in trading/burying him down the line due to the NMC. That is what makes this trade so bad. There should’ve been a more substantial sweetener involved for the added level of risk the Flames have assumed in this contract.

That was my thought at first too.

I guess it comes down to this though. If that's all he could get out of the Oilers and if that was the only team he could even get engaged do you walk away or take the best you can get?

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

An Oilers 3rd pick is just about a 2nd rounder.

Still a pretty small return for the risk involved.

The only leverage the Oilers had in this swap is the amount of money owed, and please excuse me if I’m not exactly sympathetic to Murray Edwards and his London penthouse suite.

[Oling_Roachinen]

What type of sweetner could be expected when they are already taking Neal back, in essence, at 6.5M cap-hit after accounting for the retained salary transaction of Lucic? Especially when they are taking on 9M in actual salary.

I made no bones about Neal before the trade, I thought he was a hindrance down the stretch and was better for the team not on the ice. So to me I still can't believe Edmonton would be willing to take him on.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Is it sillier than inventing numbers to coincide with your original argument to avoid addressing that paying a 4th line player 5.25 per is awful?

It doesn't 'change your math', it changes the entire basis of your argument.

Hathaway just signed 1.5x3

Ferland just signed for 3.5 after a 40 point season.

There's no comparable to suggest what you're saying.

The flames are overpaying their 4th line tough guy by about 3-4 million per year. You don't have to try to prove everything is great all the time.

Hathaway is meh and isn't worth $1.5 and If Ferland would have signed here for $3.5 we still would have been stuck with Neal's $5.75. Buyout? we are talking about throwing away over $15m just to sign a Ferland who appears to be one punch in the head away from retirement.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Still a pretty small return for the risk involved.

The only leverage the Oilers had in this swap is the amount of money owed, and please excuse me if I’m not exactly sympathetic to Murray Edwards and his London penthouse suite.

Let's do a risk analysis.

What are the odds Neal bounces back for a divisional rival?
- The odds are pretty good that Neal improves on his totals because he could not possibly be worse. So even though he will be better at best he will transform the Oilers from a bottom 5 team to a bottom 10 team. So in terms of making the Oilers better its not really an issue.

What is the added difficulty in trading/burying him down the line due to the NMC compared to Neal?

- Neal literally could only be traded for someone as bad as Lucic, so lets say the trade difficulty remains the same.

- Buying him out is not going to save the Flames any cap space. Still buying out Neal would result in 6 or 8 years worth of dead cap space, so while slightly more palatable it was probably never seen as a possibility

-His NMC wont be an issue for the expansion because he will be placed on LTIR or bought out by then.


In conclusion I've said it before, it's a nothing trade of meaningless players that will have little to no impact on the on ice results. Its July and that is why it seems important.

[Harry Lime]

There are a lot of options, that we saw play out, for the expansion draft.

You can offer Jankowski and a second to Seattle if they agree to select an expiring contract, for example. This type of deal worked out famously poorly for Florida during the Las Vegas expansion. It was Florida's idea, however.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

Yeah, I'm not buying that Neal is going to have some monster bounce back season due to off season training. He absolutely looked clueless without the puck, was really slow to make decisions and handled it like a hand grenade when he did have it. His shot took forever to get off and was laughable most of the time.

Unless Gary Roberts also installs hockey IQ chips, speed and work ethic upgrades and gives heart transplants I dont see how Neal is going to suddenly bounce back.

How would it not be possible? I can see him not having a bounce back year but that would be more so due to skills deteriorating with age/wear.

He has been a productive player for the past decade scoring 20+ goals each year, prior to last year. If it was the case that he couldn't think the game or a lack of work ethic, one would have expected him not to be able to have been able to reach those levels before.

[Robbob]

I think the sticking point that was being negotiated was the retention. As much as we all wanted the Oilers to retain more than the 12.5%, I think that is all the Oilers good realistically manage.

They are currently sitting at 2.4. If Smith plays 40 games they are down to 1.65. He plays 45 and that goes down to 1.4. If any of their ELC value contracts make the team, it won't take much for that remaining cap space to be eaten up and then they will have to worry about bonus overage being applied to next year. I think Holland will be playing the paper waiver game to manage the cap. I think Brad squeezed as much as he could from a retention point of view.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Inventing?

You don't think a top fighter/physical player would use Reeves current contract as a point of negotiation if Calgary was trying to bring one in?

Sorry man that's not inventing at all. I gave you the numbers based on correcting what the Flames had offered, which was fair. Just said the Reeves comparable going forward would be in play.

We just disagree on most things but I'm not inventing.

Glad to see CanadaMatt is happy though, you get a thanks every time you come after me.

And yeah .... one word answers look silly.

A team would probably use Reaves as a comparable, but Lucic's agent would use Tom Wilson as a comparable.

I think Lucic could probably get something in between those two, which would put his market at least in the $3 million range.

2 years at $3 million per doesn't seem to out of whack to me and if that's the case, he's $2 million over paid.

As much as Lucic's production has declined, he still has a much better resume and overall skill set than Reaves. I would have preferred Reaves at $2,775,000 to Lucic at $5,200,000, but i'd probably prefer Lucic at $3,500,000 to Reaves.

As I stated in this thread earlier, when Wilson signed his big deal, his career high was 35 points, so $5,200,000 AAV for a heavy weight power forward who scores in the 35 to 50 point range is market.

[dino7c]

Guy on the radio made a great point...next summer Lucic Only has like 9M in actual salary to be paid over 3 seasons. Perfect contact for some cheap team trying to hit the cap floor.

I wouldn't be shocked if Lucic is totally off the books next summer.