I do think that there are going to be some tough times in this city.
I do think that we're going to start losing the things that make Calgary world class.
If the pipeline doesn't get built, we might see an exodus of head offices.
I firmly believe that the Flames will be playing elsewhere in 5 years.
I think the Olympic bid is a desperation hail mary, but it will fail out early.
As much as people doubt it, losing companies and something like the Flames tends to gather momentum for other events.
This needs to stop.
We're not world class. We're a 1.5 million metro prairie town with a higher than average salary pool.
If people are basing the expectations of what Calgary is going to be on us currently being a world class city, the "downfall" is going to be a lot harder on them. Be realistic about what we are and it won't be such a dramatic change.
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I agree that the topic is serious enough and deserves a serious discussion rather than a "pffft..." dismissal. With the oil & gas energy industry decline seemingly becoming just a matter of time, Calgary has built nothing else to sustain its economic engine. So, yes, there is a very high probability that Calgary will become a western version of Winnipeg in 10 to 20 years from now. Edmonton is already a wasteland and will deteriorate even further.
Preventing this could be a futile task unless the provincial government makes attracting other industries to Alberta its highest priority and re-focuses its fiscal policies towards that objective.
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We're not world class. We're a 1.5 million metro prairie town with a higher than average salary pool.
If people are basing the expectations of what Calgary is going to be on us currently being a world class city, the "downfall" is going to be a lot harder on them. Be realistic about what we are and it won't be such a dramatic change.
And we never have been.
We're an amazing City to live in and I love living here, but we're not up there with other Major Metropolitan Cities.
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I don't think so. In my line of work I deal with companies looking to sign 5 sometimes 10 year leases and last year we saw a lot of great business sign 10 year leases and go long on Calgary. Yes a big part of that is getting amazing space at discount prices but to commit to a 10 year term tells me they are here for the long term.
Towards the end of Q4 last year we were projecting positive absorption (i.e. the change in occupied space) downtown for the first time since 2015 but then Pengrowth put all their space on the market and sent things back into the negative but they are the last major O&G co to do so. This year I suspect we will see some positive growth (albeit very small) in the market place.
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In my line of work there's tons of projects and new opportunities that we're pursuing. Oil and gas may be not what it was, but other industries are still moving along. I'm operating my team at 110% capacity at the moment, there's so much work out there.
Granted lots of it is in Edmonton, but still, work is work... if your firm is able to extend its tentacles province-wide or even nationally, you're probably in a much safer position.
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Maybe because I don't work in Oil & Gas I don't see the same things others are seeing, but I'm finding it hard to continue to hear these doom and gloom stories about Calgary. There is no denying that the city has hurt over the past few years, but its not like the city is falling apart. Last year GDP grew almost 7% and is foretasted to grow another 2-3% annually over the next few years - that doesn't align with a lot of posters feelings that Calgary is experiencing mass exodus and the city will be a shell in 10 years.
Honestly, its probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. I think the city is going pretty good as I've personally been virtually unaffected the Oil & Gas issues. Others who are deep in the O&G industry see the city on the edge of despair as they've been the hardest hit. The reality is somewhere in the middle.
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I know people want the tech industry to move in, but the growing ability to work from home means Calgary is at a disadvantage. Would you work from home in Calgary? Or would you move somewhere warmer/more interesting and still get to do the same thing?
I have a colleague who is a software developer from Eastern Canada. Came to Calgary just like many did in the 2000s. Still doing well, and keeping busy. However, his job is work-from-home most of the time these days (as a contractor). When I chatted with him recently he said there's no point in staying, he can do all of this from Nova Scotia, where he's from and wants to go back. Another person i know is doing software development and project managment operating out of his holiday home (now permanent home) in Fernie. No need to be on-site unless critical.
And I don't think that's going to be an uncommon story going forward. Even as a contractor and freelancer myself, I don't need to be on site for what I do. And the client don't even have to be in Canada, let alone Alberta anymore.
The only thing that would pull me back to Calgary is friends and family, and that is priority number one. However, the economics certainly aren't ideal anymore (e.g. pay is down, housing hasn't gotten cheaper, etc.) If I didn't have my social circles there, I don't know if I would do it.
Granted lots of it is in Edmonton, but still, work is work... if your firm is able to extend its tentacles province-wide or even nationally, you're probably in a much safer position.
Things are going to hurt in lots of places in Canada in the next while. The reality is the problem is bigger than Calgary and occurring on a macroeconomic level. The economics of Canada just don't work right now. Specifically, factors like personal debt and property prices are destroying the ability of young Canadians to become entrepreneurs and work. Canada is a country built on economic mobility, which doesn't really exist right now.
The problem is that Canada has swept a lot of its problems under the rug with historically low interest rates. Cities like Calgary simply don't have the economy they once had, but are being kept afloat by the interest rates. Oil was expected to be an ever dwindling resource that the world depended on. Instead alternative fuel sources, like natural gas and renewable energy, have flourished. The rest of Canada seems hell bent on preventing Alberta from exporting its oil off the continent or setting up proper infrastructure for Alberta to refine their own oil or pass it more easily to other parts of North America.
To add to this issue, Canada can't use the old trick of dropping its dollar to keep exports high, as the USA has wised up and plays this game too (largely to compete with China). The USA is also on the verge of energy independence and becoming an oil exporting nation.The Saudis have recognized this and are keeping their oil prices down to be more competitive. Long story short, I just don't see oil prices going up anytime soon.
The problem is far more widespread than Calgary though. Cities like Vancouver and Toronto never had the economies to support their outrageous costs of living or property prices, but the government let people borrow as though they did. Traditional Vancouver industries like lumber and fishing, don't exist on the scale they once did. Overall Canada's major cities are unattractive places to set up businesses. The costs of living and operating a business are outrageous and non-competitive with many cities in the USA, even once you've taken into account the weak Canadian dollar.
At the end of the day, Canada is suffering from poor leadership. Harper's government was solid in keeping us out of the securities crisis, with good regulation. However, they really bit it in the end with poor interest rate management and allowing too much foreign investment into real estate. Trudeau seems totally detached from reality and downright helpless. Some of his ideologies are great, but he doesn't seem able to effectively make decisions and manage the country.
Anyways, my point is that Canada, as a whole, is in a very precarious situation economically. The problems Calgary has are shared by the majority of the country. I wouldn't say there's anything specific about Calgary being in trouble that isn't shared by most other major cities in Canada.
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At the end of the day, Canada is suffering from poor leadership. Harper's government was solid in keeping us out of the securities crisis, with good regulation. However, they really bit it in the end with poor interest rate management and allowing too much foreign investment into real estate. Trudeau seems totally detached from reality and downright helpless. Some of his ideologies are great, but he doesn't seem able to effectively make decisions and manage the country.
Anyways, my point is that Canada, as a whole, is in a very precarious situation economically. The problems Calgary has are shared by the majority of the country. I wouldn't say there's anything specific about Calgary being in trouble that isn't shared by most other major cities in Canada.
This is such a myth, I made 2 posts in the past 2 weeks about it in the Cdn Federal Politics thread. If you want to thank anyone for that, THANK Paul Martin! The only people who shouldn't be thanking him are the Mainland Chinese investors. They would have gotten their Vancouver/Toronto properties at 60% off.
The City of Edmonton, the universities and colleges, and developers are in full out spend mode right now. There's billions worth of public and post-secondary design and construction projects up there right now that are currently in progress or have been announced within the last year. Just insane.
Edmonton is THE place in Alberta for work right now. If they're a 'raging river' of projects right now, Calgary would be a slight trickle from a water fountain.
This is such a myth, I made 2 posts in the past 2 weeks about it in the Cdn Federal Politics thread. If you want to thank anyone for that, THANK Paul Martin! The only people who shouldn't be thanking him are the Mainland Chinese investors. They would have gotten their Vancouver/Toronto properties at 60% off.
I don't disagree with what you're saying. However, it also needs to be taken into account that the global trend was for de-regulation, and that's what led to the global crisis. Leaders around the world were outbidding each other with more and more lax securities rules. Harper keeping Canada out of that race to the bottom required very reasonable decision making. In other words, it wasn't just about making new regulations, but keeping existing regulation in place in the face of extreme pressure to lift those regulations.
