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Old 03-09-2018, 04:13 PM   #201
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Just run the ####ing table and get home ice
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Old 03-10-2018, 10:12 AM   #202
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28.3%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:39 AM   #203
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13 games left: If 95 points is the end goal then we need to go 8-4-1 or 7-3-3.


Opponents:

Islanders, Coyotes x 2, Oilers x 2, Knights x 2, Blue Jackets, Sharks x 2, Kings, Ducks, Jets


I can see us winning the 7 or 8 games in here but when I look at final schedule, the questions I come up with is: Can we finally beat the Oilers? Can we at the very least split the California games? Will the Knights and Jets rest their regulars? Can we avoid slipping on those banana peel games? If the answers are mostly yes, then I think we get in.
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Old 03-11-2018, 07:14 AM   #204
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My favorite McCurdy graph.
Or least favorite maybe?
Sadness - meaning no playoffs and no top 5 pick.
At least the little win streak had dropped the sadness a little from league leading a few days ago. No more sadness, please!

From hockeyviz.com
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Old 03-11-2018, 08:27 AM   #205
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13 games left: If 95 points is the end goal then we need to go 8-4-1 or 7-3-3 to get in.

95 points gives us about a 50% chance of making the playoffs, so we may well need 96 (70%) or 97(90%) to get in.

We need to keep winning and the playoffs will take care of itself.




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Old 03-11-2018, 09:56 AM   #206
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At this point in the season, it isn't about projecting points, it's about winning the games against the teams you're fighting.

They play 2 against the Sharks, plus the Kings and the Ducks.

Win those 4 games and they are completely in the driver's seat. Win 3, and they are in very good shape. Win 2 and they are in deep trouble. One or less and they're toast.

Beyond that, keep beating the crappy teams and hope we gain some ground.

Need to win today and good some good juju going on home ice.
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Old 03-11-2018, 11:43 AM   #207
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I want to be hopeful but the Flames have by far the worst goal differential of all the western conference contenders. They deserve to be on the outside looking in based on play to date. Here’s hoping they turn it around....
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Old 03-11-2018, 01:02 PM   #208
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I want to be hopeful but the Flames have by far the worst goal differential of all the western conference contenders. They deserve to be on the outside looking in based on play to date. Here’s hoping they turn it around....


What’s deserve got to do with it.


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Old 03-14-2018, 06:35 AM   #209
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The Flames are up to 30.4% on the 50/50 and 28.9% on the weighted chart.
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Old 03-14-2018, 06:39 AM   #210
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So you're saying there's a chance
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:32 AM   #211
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The Flames are up to 30.4% on the 50/50 and 28.9% on the weighted chart.
I see 22.2% on the weighted?
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:36 AM   #212
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The Flames next 7 games (SJ, @LV, @ARZ, ANA, @SJ, @LA, COL) and 5 are teams directly we are chasing. Now would be a good time to get on a streak.
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:57 AM   #213
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The Flames next 7 games (SJ, @LV, @ARZ, ANA, @SJ, @LA, COL) and 5 are teams directly we are chasing. Now would be a good time to get on a streak.
The ANA and LA games are particularly important, as Calgary most likely play off spot is through the Pacific. Winning both of those games is a near must, as they likely need to finish ahead of both of them, and losing a 4-point game to either of them would be near fatal.
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Old 03-14-2018, 10:19 AM   #214
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Right now, Friday's game(San Jose) looks awfully important no matter which way you look a it. No need to look beyond that. That goes beyond the "one game at a time" mantra that the players need to apply.
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Old 03-14-2018, 10:24 AM   #215
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The ANA and LA games are particularly important, as Calgary most likely play off spot is through the Pacific. Winning both of those games is a near must, as they likely need to finish ahead of both of them, and losing a 4-point game to either of them would be near fatal.
I'm not convinced it's going to be thru the pacific. Dallas is on a nasty road trip right now. They've just lost 2 in a row, they play in Toronto tonight(without Ben Bishop it looks like) and then still have to go to Winnipeg and Washington.

They could be outside looking in by the time they play at home again later next week.
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Old 03-14-2018, 10:34 AM   #216
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I'm not convinced it's going to be thru the pacific. Dallas is on a nasty road trip right now. They've just lost 2 in a row, they play in Toronto tonight(without Ben Bishop it looks like) and then still have to go to Winnipeg and Washington.

They could be outside looking in by the time they play at home again later next week.
I get that.

But if Dallas doesn't make it, they still have to beat a number of teams to get to a wild card spot. Colorado, Dallas, St. Louis and whomever of ANA and LA that doesn't make it.

That's 5 teams fighting for 2 spots. And Calgary is 5th in that race right now, and only has the tie-breaker over ANA.
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Old 03-14-2018, 01:59 PM   #217
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I get that.

But if Dallas doesn't make it, they still have to beat a number of teams to get to a wild card spot. Colorado, Dallas, St. Louis and whomever of ANA and LA that doesn't make it.

That's 5 teams fighting for 2 spots. And Calgary is 5th in that race right now, and only has the tie-breaker over ANA.
It's gonna be tough either way. It's either 5 teams fighting over 2 spots (Wildcard), or 4 teams fighting over 2 spots (Pacific).

Really wish Flames didn't crap away that game against the Knights. 2 points right now is huge.
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Old 03-14-2018, 02:14 PM   #218
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Really wish Flames didn't crap away that game against the Knights. 2 points right now is huge.
We can say that about a lot of games this season. I personally feel they gifted San Jose both of their wins. Get those points like they should have and they're the one second in the Pacific right now.
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Old 03-14-2018, 02:24 PM   #219
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It's gonna be tough either way. It's either 5 teams fighting over 2 spots (Wildcard), or 4 teams fighting over 2 spots (Pacific).

Really wish Flames didn't crap away that game against the Knights. 2 points right now is huge.
Sport Club has them at about a 15% for the Pacific and 8% for the Wild Card.

San Jose is just about in. They can get to 96 points by playing .500, Calgary needs to go 8-3 for the same thing. LA needs 7-5 and ANA 8-4 (and Calgary has the tie breaker over them, so really 8-3-1).
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Old 03-14-2018, 02:25 PM   #220
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I shouldn't assume because of what happened to LA last night, but assuming we take both from Arizona, that makes it only 6-3 to get to 96 which feels more hopeful
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