Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Mayo]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Another example of Quebec making things worse for spurious reasons.

At the very least, sometime in the mid ‘20s this egress nightmare will hopefully be over with pipelines to a coast flowing, minimal diff, and curtailment policy ended. At the point, the current situation we find ourselves in of the west being choked back with a high differential while the east imports copious amounts of premium priced world cruse, a true national embarrassment and economic calamity, will at least be half over. At the point the east can import our oil, or not, it’d be nice if they did I guess but the benefit of reaching the ocean is that it no longer matters who purchases it. If Quebec wants to support Saudi and Angola that’s their prerogative.

What is the solution in dealing with Quebec?

[Mr.Coffee]

There is no solution. I don’t believe separation is as good an option as current state or changes anything for Albertans to the better. So, sometimes you hush have to suck it up and live with it as stupid as it is. They’re dinks, bank it, remember it for next time they need anything from us.

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Another example of Quebec making things worse for spurious reasons.

At the point the east can import our oil, or not, it’d be nice if they did I guess but the benefit of reaching the ocean is that it no longer matters who purchases it. If Quebec wants to support Saudi and Angola that’s their prerogative.

Almost all of Quebec imports are from the US

[Suave]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

There is no solution. I don’t believe separation is as good an option as current state or changes anything for Albertans to the better. So, sometimes you hush have to suck it up and live with it as stupid as it is. They’re dinks, bank it, remember it for next time they need anything from us.

As much as we like to complain about energy east, I don't see an economic case for it getting built anymore (as long as Keystone gets finished). We will have more than enough pipeline capacity for the foreseeable future.

Excess capacity actually hurts oil producers through higher transportation tolls. The same way it hurts them with too little capacity through lower crude pricing. Right now we don't have enough. With Keystone and Trans Mountain we hopefully hit that sweet spot, Energy East would put us over the top.

Although tanking and railcars are not the most environmentally and logistically ideal way to get to our eastern refineries. It still seems like a economical solution if that is the crude the refineries want.

[CaptainCrunch]

From the standpoint of emissions, Energy East makes far more sense then rail, truck and freighter.



From the standpoint of efficiency Energy East makes far more sense as well as adding business value to the refineries out East.


I'd presonally prefer out own form of energy independence instead of relying on American pipelines to transport energy across our own country, and maybe feeding money into this country instead of regime's like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela etc.


At the same time, the optics of killing Energy East via goal post moving and killing Northern Gateway combined with the stupidity of C-48 and C-69 chased more then a 100 billion in investments out of this country and will have long ranging economic impacts when it comes to our recovery.


Pipelines make way more sense then freighters spending 30 days to transport one day of oil and gas, shipping things by truck or rail.

[CaptainCrunch]

https://calgaryherald.com/commoditie...box=1594042979

WINNIPEG — Six years ago, Canadian oilfield services firm Calfrac Well Services commanded a $2.1 billion market value and was poised for U.S. expansion.


But by last month, Calfrac’s market value had collapsed to just $23 million and it deferred an interest payment on debt that does not mature for six years. The Texas billionaire Wilks brothers, already its top shareholder, scooped up more of the company’s debts in June, a regulatory filing showed, preparing to salvage what they can from restructuring.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Mayo

What is the solution in dealing with Quebec?

I don't know if there is a solution, besides cracking down and enforcing the constitution on them while risking the rise of more separatism. That would have to be backed up by a strong federal mandate and polling opinions across Canada showing people being sick of this perpetually aggrieved act Quebec always pulls. I'm sure a majority of Westerners feel that way, I'd have to think enviros in BC are annoyed by the hypocrisy as well. They said no to a pipeline through BC that is getting built now, Quebec says no and suddenly the Liberals pull out all the stops to prevent it from happening. I'm not sure how people in Ontario feel about Quebec but I'd have to think at some point that the political industrial complex in Quebec of demanding more and more while refusing more and more will reach a tipping point where the ROC gets sick of it and lame threats of a new referendum won't sway people.

Specifically to oil and gas the battle with Quebec is basically over. *IF* TMX Keystone and Line 3 replacement go ahead that will be enough pipeline capacity for decades for the West, quite possibly forever. Quebec and the east can source from TMX or Keystone at the Gulf, or not, Alberta crude will be selling to overseas markets and whether they're Canadian or not isn't all that important. The real wrench in things will be if Keystone gets quashed. Suddenly we're back in the 2017 boat of still needing transport egress while the east imports oil, and energy east becomes a political issue again although it would still need a proponent company which might not happen. I've given the USA props for being much more common sense than Canada when it comes to pipelines but it looks like the contagion seeded within the environmental activist obstructionist sect 10 years ago of fighting pipelines specifically to hamper oil sands production has now spread through the US and is effecting domestic US projects. There were two big developments down there recently, one was the pulling of a natural gas pipeline from west Virginia to Virginia that had been in the works since 2014 and was affected by the ruling in April that has held up Keystone in the states. The other was a bigger bombshell, the Dakota Access pipeline running from North Dakota to Illinois was ordered to shutdown due to an "improper" environmental assessment despite the fact that this pipeline has been running for three years already. This pipe was targeted by activists similar to keystone and I guess they never have up on it, goes to show that you can have a pipe running in the ground for years and obstructionists can still obstruct. Keystone was an even bigger target than this one, is just getting built, Biden's senile ass has his sights on it, and it's actively tied up in litigation now. I don't feel at all confident that keystone ever gets finished. I think it would be a smart move for Trudeau to push for it hard because it diffuses for all time the potential of putting a pipe through Quebec but I have my doubts that he would really go to the matt for it.

We're entering a very uncertain time here and rulings have shown on both sides of the border that nothing is safe. It really does seem that if the roving Eye of Sauron ever fixes on a pipeline that you require it's only a matter of time until you're ####ed. Doesn't matter if it's a new proposal, replacement, or existing pipeline young or old. It's possible that US interests sometime in a Biden administration succeed in killing keystone, stopping Line 3, and even shuttering line 5 which pathetically feeds almost all of our eastern supply. It's exceedingly likely to me that an W-E pipeline will need to be commissioned and built by the government again, because not only will western canada be pipeline constrained but eastern canada supply will be cut off due to the strategically inept situation we find ourselves in of having 60 year old pipelines running through a foreign country that are now also a massive political target.

[Gundo]

Big defeat in US Oil news. Dakota Access pipeline to be deactivated and emptied.

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/enviro...rcing-shutdown

[CaptainCrunch]

https://edmontonjournal.com/commodit...box=1594055486

To be an energy superpower, U.S. oil and gas requires a suitably gargantuan pipeline network that stretches for millions of miles. The country’s ability to expand that infrastructure is being tested like never before.


In what’s possibly the biggest victory yet for an environmental movement targeting the conduits carrying fossil fuels, Dominion Energy Inc. and its partner Duke Energy Corp. said Sunday they’ll no longer pursue their US$8 billion Atlantic Coast natural gas pipeline after years of delays and ballooning costs.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

I don't know if there is a solution, besides cracking down and enforcing the constitution on them while risking the rise of more separatism. That would have to be backed up by a strong federal mandate and polling opinions across Canada showing people being sick of this perpetually aggrieved act Quebec always pulls. I'm sure a majority of Westerners feel that way, I'd have to think enviros in BC are annoyed by the hypocrisy as well. They said no to a pipeline through BC that is getting built now, Quebec says no and suddenly the Liberals pull out all the stops to prevent it from happening. I'm not sure how people in Ontario feel about Quebec but I'd have to think at some point that the political industrial complex in Quebec of demanding more and more while refusing more and more will reach a tipping point where the ROC gets sick of it and lame threats of a new referendum won't sway people.

Specifically to oil and gas the battle with Quebec is basically over. *IF* TMX Keystone and Line 3 replacement go ahead that will be enough pipeline capacity for decades for the West, quite possibly forever. Quebec and the east can source from TMX or Keystone at the Gulf, or not, Alberta crude will be selling to overseas markets and whether they're Canadian or not isn't all that important. The real wrench in things will be if Keystone gets quashed. Suddenly we're back in the 2017 boat of still needing transport egress while the east imports oil, and energy east becomes a political issue again although it would still need a proponent company which might not happen. I've given the USA props for being much more common sense than Canada when it comes to pipelines but it looks like the contagion seeded within the environmental activist obstructionist sect 10 years ago of fighting pipelines specifically to hamper oil sands production has now spread through the US and is effecting domestic US projects. There were two big developments down there recently, one was the pulling of a natural gas pipeline from west Virginia to Virginia that had been in the works since 2014 and was affected by the ruling in April that has held up Keystone in the states. The other was a bigger bombshell, the Dakota Access pipeline running from North Dakota to Illinois was ordered to shutdown due to an "improper" environmental assessment despite the fact that this pipeline has been running for three years already. This pipe was targeted by activists similar to keystone and I guess they never have up on it, goes to show that you can have a pipe running in the ground for years and obstructionists can still obstruct. Keystone was an even bigger target than this one, is just getting built, Biden's senile ass has his sights on it, and it's actively tied up in litigation now. I don't feel at all confident that keystone ever gets finished. I think it would be a smart move for Trudeau to push for it hard because it diffuses for all time the potential of putting a pipe through Quebec but I have my doubts that he would really go to the matt for it.

We're entering a very uncertain time here and rulings have shown on both sides of the border that nothing is safe. It really does seem that if the roving Eye of Sauron ever fixes on a pipeline that you require it's only a matter of time until you're ####ed. Doesn't matter if it's a new proposal, replacement, or existing pipeline young or old. It's possible that US interests sometime in a Biden administration succeed in killing keystone, stopping Line 3, and even shuttering line 5 which pathetically feeds almost all of our eastern supply. It's exceedingly likely to me that an W-E pipeline will need to be commissioned and built by the government again, because not only will western canada be pipeline constrained but eastern canada supply will be cut off due to the strategically inept situation we find ourselves in of having 60 year old pipelines running through a foreign country that are now also a massive political target.

We should put Alberta on trial in the "am I the @#$hole" thread.

[indes]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

We should put Alberta on trial in the "am I the @#$hole" thread.

Quebec gets the only vote, votes yes and AB has to pay them billions every year?

[indes]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

We should put Alberta on trial in the "am I the @#$hole" thread.

Quebec gets the only vote, votes yes and AB has to pay them billions every year?

[DiracSpike]

lol I thought this would happen, US Supreme Court overturns the ruling that snagged keystone...except for keystone. Somehow every other pipeline in the states can use this streamlined application system but keystone cannot. I’m not sure how much control kenney has over the 1 billion to finance construction this year but at this point I would stop and save money if I could. I want to see this built more than anyone but between this additional ####ing delay and the election it’s best to wait it out until 2021 and see what the world looks like then. What a rollercoaster ride Jesus.

[Mr.Coffee]

Energy East is not economic today. Certainly not for the timeline it would require, but even streamlined it wouldn’t make economic sense. The east will have to do with existing pipeline capacity or buy from international markets from here on out unless the Feds want to take on the circus of building a trans-Canada pipeline, which they could do but won’t. Even if it was economic, consider the risk. Can’t see any company taking the leap to spend billions of dollars for 10 years or more. Simply not going to happen.

I have it on fairly good authority that’s why TransCanada backed out in the first place (economics were too challenged, back when it was cancelled). Too bad it was better for the environment because we’ll have to stick with risking oceans I guess vs. a pipeline that would have navigated bald ass prairie of nothingness or Canadian Shield of nothingness.

Canada was a place to invest because it was low risk. You didn’t get a lot of oil per well here unless you’re in the oil sands but it had the advantage of a very low geographic risk profile.

After multiple royalty reviews, environmental and government resistance to the industry, Canada is now an extremely high risky investment thesis for oil and gas. High cost, high risk, low reward... doesn’t go around. No wonder the junior capital markets have almost entirely evaporated and we are stuck with an industry in its death spiral. Things will not get better and broader Canada is in fact primarily blame despite what you hear from lefties across our nation who are insanely wildly ignorant about why their life is so good, and why it is going to get worse as well nationwide.

[Brewmaster]

I don't see a scenario where Energy East gets revived. Like Mr. Coffee said, the economic case is not there. Building these projects requires commitments from shippers to supply the oil and pay the tolls, and I don't see any of the large players wanting to take that on. Not to mention the new hurdles like C-69 that layer on even more uncertainty to the slow moving projects of today.

In fact, if Line 3R, TMX, and KXL all get built there may be more pipeline capacity than we ever need. The investment case for major oil sands growth projects is no longer compelling and it is tough to envision any new mines getting sanctioned. In situ might see some growth but emissions and regulations are becoming increasingly large hurdles. There would have to be quite an extended period of high oil prices before companies start allocating capital towards large scale growth. Investors around the world have been burned over the last decade by oil companies growing production to their own detriment.

[CaptainCrunch]

Well pipelines are going to be rare because frankly there's no way any private firm is going to trust investing in Canada again around infrastructure projects like pipelines. We amazingly chased about 100 billion worth of investments out of Canada.


We should have been striving to build more energy independence, now Ontario is going to be reliant on US Oil and Oil from murderous brutal regimes with little or no environmental standards. We've done the opposite of what we've set out to do.


With judges shutting down pipelines from the US to Canada, and us stupidly now trying to ship oil from Vancouver to the East, the first people that are going to face the squeeze of massive increases in heating, electrical and gas costs will be Ontario. Oh well.


At the same time we've literally now pissed away one of our best resources to help with paying down the massive debt that's been racked up.


What a mess.

[Snuffleupagus]

Energy East should have been completed 20 years ago, right along side my supertanker company supplying western Europe with cheap Canadian oil. sadly neither happened!

[Mr.Coffee]

All I know is Albertans have a lot of “inventing” to do to save our province / asses. I was in a ridiculous debate on the weekend with one of my best friends and his wife. Both are like borderline left wing extremists and they were explaining the logic of carbon tax and how it is designed to incentivize green energy and more efficient energy generation including oil and gas development. I pointed out that if certain things get pushed to uneconomic levels due to additional carbon tax (BC’s for example does this- stifles investment and kills projects / opportunities- I know this because I run economics), the reality isn’t the 20 engineers who previously were employed go hunker down and start working on green initiatives. The reality is that the 20 engineers becomes more like 5 and then 15 people end of on EI, some of those people probably end up in huge debt, divorce and have social problems that society will have to pay for because they can’t find a job.

Canada doesn’t operate in a vacuum. I know Canadians like to think so but unfortunately we are in this very key thing called a global market. For a product very high in demand. So we can pat ourselves on the backs for implementing green initiative policies but we also can destroy our industry- which we have done. Like... the show is over folks. Alberta is so, so screwed and it’s mainly Quebec, BC and then the Feds we can thank. Albertans have a victim complex and get probably correctly identified as always blaming others, but no easterners or other Canadians take the next critical thinking step as to asking- well- why do they feel that way? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[CaptainCrunch]

Its funny because your left wing friends are going to be the first to cry for government subsidies when their electricity bills and fuel costs and things like consumer electronic costs goes through the roof, all while screaming their eat their rich platitudes.


I mean you look at the amount of money people in Ontario are already paying for their utilities because of the Green Energy boondoogles and its psychotic.



Add on the carbon tax. and its effect on everything.



Sure people can claim, revenue neutral and refunds, but there are questions on if rebate = Cost to living increases with the Federal plan.

[burn_this_city]

I'd argue after yesterday's DAP decision the regulatory risk is now greater in the US than Canada.