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Old 07-23-2018, 06:10 PM   #2121
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(Hamilton included, even though he is the oldest and closest to revealing what his top form will be).
First, he has to absorb 17 and 18.
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Old 07-23-2018, 06:13 PM   #2122
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I'm not trying to crap on advanced stats, and I know they are useful when they are used properly, but it seems like our team is good when we have a crappy corsi and they suck when we are dominating the corsi battle. Watching games last year where we had 40+ shots on net but never seemed to have a really good scoring chance was painful. Reminds me of the greasers a couple of years ago when they were one of the worst teams in the league but had great advanced stats so they were going to win eventually right?


I really think this team is hugely improved, the team is just better balanced all around. Our top 6 should be a bit better, our bottom 6 should be a massive improvement, I really think our defence will be as good or better.
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Old 07-23-2018, 06:18 PM   #2123
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I'm not trying to crap on advanced stats, and I know they are useful when they are used properly, but it seems like our team is good when we have a crappy corsi and they suck when we are dominating the corsi battle. Watching games last year where we had 40+ shots on net but never seemed to have a really good scoring chance was painful. Reminds me of the greasers a couple of years ago when they were one of the worst teams in the league but had great advanced stats so they were going to win eventually right?


I really think this team is hugely improved, the team is just better balanced all around. Our top 6 should be a bit better, our bottom 6 should be a massive improvement, I really think our defence will be as good or better.
Personally, I think it is because GG was coaching for Corsi assuming the wins would come because of it. He was known to be a sucker for advanced stats before the Flames hired him. The team lacked a coherent system and failed the eye test on most nights, but yay for advanced stats I guess.

Obviously, having a good Corsi rating is good and most (but not all) great teams will naturally have a good Corsi. But it isn't terribly hard to fake a good Corsi if that is the goal.
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Old 07-23-2018, 06:31 PM   #2124
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Honestly, I don’t even sweat letting Hamilton go in the trade. A big part of this was to reunite Gio and Brodie. Hamilton had to go to make that happen. Good for team management for seeing that. Hard to believe that Dougie had to leave in an addition by subtraction scenario but there you are. Calgary reunites its favourite D pairing this year and adds two core players at the same time.
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Old 07-23-2018, 06:31 PM   #2125
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The Hamilton trade is going to be debated likely for a long time.

At the end of the day the Flames gave up a players that were
1- 3 years away from UFA
2- 1 year away from UFA
3- 2 years away from UFA

They acquired 2 RFA’s and signed one to a 6 year deal already and will either go long term or bridge the other.

I think the Flames taking a step back last year had Treliving subtlety pumping the brakes opposed to putting his foot on the gas last summer. He gave up the best player but this player also was 2 years away from being extension eligible and he is certainly on pace for a $8-10M per deal. The Flames acquired Dougie after surprisingly winning a round in the playoffs but haven’t won a playoff game since halfway through his contract. Now they get a younger Dman and likely are not faced paying one of their own players $10M per season until Johnny is up.
Well said. This deal was as much about cap management to extend the contender window as it was about adding a core piece right shot top 6 RW/C.
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Old 07-23-2018, 07:00 PM   #2126
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Honestly, I don’t even sweat letting Hamilton go in the trade. A big part of this was to reunite Gio and Brodie. Hamilton had to go to make that happen. Good for team management for seeing that. Hard to believe that Dougie had to leave in an addition by subtraction scenario but there you are. Calgary reunites its favourite D pairing this year and adds two core players at the same time.
I'm a little worried that the reuniting of Brodie and Giordano doesn't pay off as well as we hope as Gio is still a great player but he's on the slow decline and Brodie has been the most mistake prone defenseman on the roster. That said maybe something as simple as Brodie playing back on the RH side is all it will take to see immediate improvement. I have no doubt we will see some slippage in quality of the first pairing but the hope is that the team can score a few more goals to offset that.
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Old 07-23-2018, 07:01 PM   #2127
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i'm surprised a bit at how long the process of signing Hanifin is taking. Not alarming in any way. But the wizard must be wanting to take a fishing break before they gear up for China.
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Old 07-23-2018, 07:21 PM   #2128
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i'm surprised a bit at how long the process of signing Hanifin is taking. Not alarming in any way. But the wizard must be wanting to take a fishing break before they gear up for China.
They are probably going to figure out Jankowski and the other arb pieces before settling with Hanifin. I feel there is a want to go long term but if the cap space is not there they may explore a bridge deal.

Personally I would love a 7 year deal under 5.5 I think the Flames would be laughing by year 3
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Old 07-23-2018, 08:06 PM   #2129
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I'm a little worried that the reuniting of Brodie and Giordano doesn't pay off as well as we hope as Gio is still a great player but he's on the slow decline and Brodie has been the most mistake prone defenseman on the roster. That said maybe something as simple as Brodie playing back on the RH side is all it will take to see immediate improvement. I have no doubt we will see some slippage in quality of the first pairing but the hope is that the team can score a few more goals to offset that.

Is he though, yet? Certainly he will be, sooner or later, but this implies you think he declined last year. That's not what I saw. No decline yet, slow or not.
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Old 07-23-2018, 08:44 PM   #2130
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Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814 View Post
First, he has to absorb 17 and 18.
If he reaches his Perfect form, the Flames lose this deal.
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Old 07-23-2018, 09:11 PM   #2131
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One metric that contradicts some of what you're saying is goals above replacement (GAR) (https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...-sprigings-nhl), which tries to take into account contextual factors such as the level of teammates one plays with and the level of competition.

GAR says Hamilton was the Flames best defenceman in 2017-2018. League-wide, he was 99th percentile for overall play, 99th percentile for 5v5 offence, 92nd percentile for 5v5 defence and 82nd percentile for the power play. However, GAR does say he struggles in terms of taking penalties (9th percentile) and drawing penalties (26th percentile).

I think a pretty good comparable for Hamilton is Seth Jones. In 2017-2018, Jones was better on the power play and much better in terms of taking penalties and drawing penalties while Hamilton was better at 5v5 offence and 5v5 defence.

If you look back to 2015-16 and 2016-17, Hamilton was 80th percentile and 95th percentile for overall play, while Jones was 84th percentile and 79th percentile for overall play.

Over three seasons Hamilton and Jones are neck and neck in terms of overall play.

I think in evaluating the trade it is important to understand the kind of player the Flames gave up. They gave up a monster.

On the positive side of things, GAR says Hanifin is a great young defenceman. In 2017-18, he was 79th percentile for overall play, 86th percentile for 5v5 offence and 32nd percentile for 5v5 defence. This is similar to what Hamilton and Jones were in 2015-2016. It'll be interesting to see if Hanifin grows to become a dominant player like those two. I think the potential is there.
Again, the stats say this, but watching the player play sure didn't. Hamilton was a good player last year, and his shot is elite. But suggesting he was a monster is laughable.

My original point was that stats guys hate the trade because they love Hamilton. And people that rely on watching him play are far less enamored with him. And you refuted that with another stat calling him a monster.

Yes, he is a stats darling. But the Flames will not miss him defensively IMO.
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Old 07-23-2018, 09:14 PM   #2132
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Originally Posted by Erick Estrada View Post
I'm a little worried that the reuniting of Brodie and Giordano doesn't pay off as well as we hope as Gio is still a great player but he's on the slow decline and Brodie has been the most mistake prone defenseman on the roster. That said maybe something as simple as Brodie playing back on the RH side is all it will take to see immediate improvement. I have no doubt we will see some slippage in quality of the first pairing but the hope is that the team can score a few more goals to offset that.
Absolutely NOTHING in Giordano's game last year suggested any kind of decline. I know you have carried that narrative since the contract was signed, but let's wait until there actually is some decline before we hold it on him.
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Old 07-23-2018, 10:22 PM   #2133
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he is the oldest and closest to revealing what his top form will be).
Its venusaur...freakin venusaur
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Old 07-23-2018, 10:33 PM   #2134
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Off the top of my head, I'm having a hard time thinking of a team that won a trade where they traded the best player in the deal in an attempt to improve team culture. Usually the team seeking "intangibles" and "desire to win" comes out on the losing end.
The Bruins traded center Phil Esposito and defenseman Carol Vadnais for Rangers center Jean Ratelle, defenseman Brad Park and minor league defenseman Joe Zanussi. The trade turns out better for the Bruins, who get several superb seasons from Park and Ratelle and advance to the Stanley Cup Final in 1977 and 1978.

https://www.nhl.com/news/this-date-i...-7/c-283451160

Okay, now you know i'm old
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Old 07-23-2018, 10:49 PM   #2135
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Off the top of my head, I'm having a hard time thinking of a team that won a trade where they traded the best player in the deal in an attempt to improve team culture. Usually the team seeking "intangibles" and "desire to win" comes out on the losing end.
The deals the Flyers made to move on from Carter and Richards come to mind
Tough to say who won those deals. Both sides seemed to do ok...which is how I think this one will also turn out
I don’t think the flames made this deal for intangibles. They made the deal to change their core, get younger within the core, get more balanced and put themselves in a more favourable contract position
Very rare to find this type of hockey trade anymore so tough to find conparables
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Old 07-23-2018, 10:57 PM   #2136
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Deleted - Jiri Hrdina beat me to it
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Old 07-23-2018, 11:21 PM   #2137
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The deals the Flyers made to move on from Carter and Richards come to mind
Tough to say who won those deals. Both sides seemed to do ok...which is how I think this one will also turn out
I don’t think the flames made this deal for intangibles. They made the deal to change their core, get younger within the core, get more balanced and put themselves in a more favourable contract position
Very rare to find this type of hockey trade anymore so tough to find conparables
I think Philly won the Carter trade pretty handily. Carter did well again in LA, but his short time in Columbus was not great.

Philly got Voracek, who made it a win alone, imo, but also came with a the eighth overall pick and a 3rd, whether or not you want to consider the fact that the 1st turned into Couturier the next day.

Columbus turned him into Jack Johnson and a 1st (27th overall - Marko Dano), but even if you consider that Columbus's return on the trade, I think Philly gets a clear win.
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Old 07-23-2018, 11:33 PM   #2138
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Personally, I think it is because GG was coaching for Corsi assuming the wins would come because of it. He was known to be a sucker for advanced stats before the Flames hired him. The team lacked a coherent system and failed the eye test on most nights, but yay for advanced stats I guess.

Obviously, having a good Corsi rating is good and most (but not all) great teams will naturally have a good Corsi. But it isn't terribly hard to fake a good Corsi if that is the goal.
How do you fake a good corsi?
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Old 07-24-2018, 12:26 AM   #2139
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How do you fake a good corsi?
Fake probably isn't the best way to articulate it, but you can promote players on an individual level to do things that make the Corsi look good while totally ignoring the subtleties that actually create real scoring chances or changes of momentum.
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Old 07-24-2018, 12:46 AM   #2140
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Fake probably isn't the best way to articulate it, but you can promote players on an individual level to do things that make the Corsi look good while totally ignoring the subtleties that actually create real scoring chances or changes of momentum.
How exactly does this work?
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