View Poll Results: Pick the best prospect from the following
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Adam Ruzicka
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29 |
15.51% |
Alexander Yelesin
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41 |
21.93% |
Andrew Nielsen
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0 |
0% |
Artyom Zagidulin
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11 |
5.88% |
Carl-Johan Lerby
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0 |
0% |
Demetrios Koumontzis
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39 |
20.86% |
Dustin Wolf
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2 |
1.07% |
Eetu Tuulola
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9 |
4.81% |
Glenn Gawdin
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13 |
6.95% |
Jeremy McKenna
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1 |
0.53% |
Jon Gillies
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29 |
15.51% |
Josh Nodler
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0 |
0% |
Justin Kirkland
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0 |
0% |
Linus Lindstrom
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1 |
0.53% |
Lucas Feuk
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1 |
0.53% |
Luke Philp
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1 |
0.53% |
Milos Roman
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4 |
2.14% |
Mitchell Mattson
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0 |
0% |
Nick Schneider
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1 |
0.53% |
Pavel Karnaukhov
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0 |
0% |
Rinat Valiev
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0 |
0% |
Ryan Lomberg
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4 |
2.14% |
Spencer Foo
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1 |
0.53% |
07-19-2019, 11:54 AM
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#21
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2016
Location: ATCO Field, Section 201
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I'm never going to tell someone how to vote, but I just don't understand why playing in a game or two as filler is a big hurdle for a prospect when it comes to ranking their value.
Ryan Lomberg will always be an energy guy that will likely never be a full time NHL player at any role. If he is, which I can't see, it's a fourth liner or a popcorn muncher.
I just don't see players like that as prospects, they're fillers.
When I vote Gillies soon it will be because of the unpredictability of goaltending, and his tools that could still translate and not because he's the next guy up if a goalie gets hurt.
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To be clear, I was not complimenting Lomberg so much as I was suggesting that the talent left in the prospect pool was close to drying up. I think that in two or three rounds the ceiling of most of these players is either a very long shot or a fourth liner/ popcorn muncher. Among those popcorn munchers, Lomberg has proven that he can contribute to the PK, and that he can skate at an NHL level, never mind that he ruffles a few feathers. Indeed at this point in his career the only noticeable difference between him and Hathaway is three inches.
I don't think that is a slight against the Flames. With the amount of picks they have made in the last three years, and the rate that players are graduating having a decent prospect pool 15 players deep is better than expected.
In the end its a moot point, because I haven't voted Lomberg, and wont until Ruzicka is off the board.
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07-19-2019, 12:00 PM
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#22
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden
To be clear, I was not complimenting Lomberg so much as I was suggesting that the talent left in the prospect pool was close to drying up. I think that in two or three rounds the ceiling of most of these players is either a very long shot or a fourth liner/ popcorn muncher. Among those popcorn munchers, Lomberg has proven that he can contribute to the PK, and that he can skate at an NHL level, never mind that he ruffles a few feathers. Indeed at this point in his career the only noticeable difference between him and Hathaway is three inches.
I don't think that is a slight against the Flames. With the amount of picks they have made in the last three years, and the rate that players are graduating having a decent prospect pool 15 players deep is better than expected.
In the end its a moot point, because I haven't voted Lomberg, and wont until Ruzicka is off the board.
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But a guy that's almost 100% figured out with a top side of energy fourth liner will never get a vote from me over any of ...
Ruzicka, Koumontizis, Gawdin, Lindstrom, Feuk, Philp, Roman or even Foo ... because if they make it they'll have a larger impact. (or Yelesin, Lerby, Gillies in non forwards).
Give me 30% at finding a middle six, or 5th defenseman than 65% chance of getting a full time healthy scratch.
Honestly not trying to pick on you, I firmly believe everyone has a right to vote how they wish.
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07-19-2019, 12:13 PM
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#23
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GOAT!
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Gawdin! Gawdin! Gawdin!
Come on, who’s with me?
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07-19-2019, 01:22 PM
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#24
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2016
Location: ATCO Field, Section 201
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
But a guy that's almost 100% figured out with a top side of energy fourth liner will never get a vote from me over any of ...
Ruzicka, Koumontizis, Gawdin, Lindstrom, Feuk, Philp, Roman or even Foo ... because if they make it they'll have a larger impact. (or Yelesin, Lerby, Gillies in non forwards).
Give me 30% at finding a middle six, or 5th defenseman than 65% chance of getting a full time healthy scratch.
Honestly not trying to pick on you, I firmly believe everyone has a right to vote how they wish.
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In principle I agree with you. There is some nuance to be added though. I think that in terms of long shots, youth is a factor that need to be kept in mind. With that, I concede that the players left who were drafted after 2017 should be ahead of (someone like) Lomberg by virtue of their youth. But if contribution is the metric we are using, whether that is minimum or maximum future contribution, at some point optimism needs to give way to realism. This distinction is difficult to quantify and in any given year it changes. This year that tipping point is coming up sooner then it has before, simply because the Flames prospect depth is more slight than in previous years.
A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, might not always be true. Still, here we are arguing about three skinny birds. If the birds in the bush were a little fatter I would completely agree with you, but I don't think that they are.
Don't worry about it even if you were picking on me I wouldn't mind because I respect you opinion, and don't really pride myself on how I evaluate the Flames bottom twenty prospects.
Last edited by TheIronMaiden; 07-19-2019 at 01:27 PM.
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07-19-2019, 05:18 PM
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#25
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Franchise Player
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Ruzicka would be easily in my top 5 if he didn't (at least SEEMINGLY) have a huge wart - lack of drive.
I will always prefer size if all other attributes are equal. Ruzicka has the talent-level in my mind to be in and around the top 5 prospects on this team. I just see a lot of prospects with a tonne of potential just fizzle-out because they didn't work as hard as the next guy who was less talented.
Is Ruzicka the next Mangiapane, or is he the next Baertschi? That's what has me down on him. The one area of concern for him since before he was drafted was his lack of motivation. I really do think that this is a career-killer of a wart. I love some of the smaller skilled (equally skilled) players as they have been known to be extremely hard workers. Pelletier, Zavgorodniy, Sveningsson, Peterssen - yes, I do think that Ruzicka fits in skill-wise with them, stands-out from them since he is a head taller and has a much easier time adapting to the physicality of the NHL, but is nowhere near a consistent workhorse as the above mentioned players, especially in all 3 zones. That's why I haven't voted him ahead of these players, rather than me having some perceived notion of favouring smaller skilled players. That's actually the opposite - I favour the big guys with skill (almost to a fault, actually).
Stillman's interview does give me pause, but is it who Ruzicka really is, or was it just the energy from being traded back onto a powerhouse team (or even worse, just mere platitudes?). I need to see his effort level stay at a consistently high level for me to scratch off what I consider a rather big wart, and push him up my list.
Maybe I don't appreciate Ruzicka's skill-level? If Ruzicka is motivated, I expect him on the roster this upcoming season. That's how highly I think of him as a prospect given his attributes and abilities. Maybe not to start, but at some point with his size and skill level, it would only be a matter of time before he made the jump at some point in the season. I just can't ignore this perceived lack of drive in his game.
I voted Yelesin this round. Hard-nosed D-man that does everything well, and does it playing against men. You can make the case that he should have been picked earlier, and I wouldn't argue with it. I wonder what his upside is really going to be like, but at least he moves the puck well, and that's crucial for a defencemen hoping to be a top 4 in today's NHL.
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07-20-2019, 01:01 AM
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#26
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First Line Centre
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Adam Ruzicka
He's big, he has decent hands and offensively ability, he is decent in his own end...but his attitude and commitment are concerns. He isn't always engaged and is easily rattled and knocked off his game, and when that happens he looks like a beer league player during a 10:45 PM weekday game going through the motions to get home ASAP. But when he is on he can drive a line and contribute at both ends of the ice. 32 even-strength goals in 65 games is impressive as is generating over 3.5 shots per game, while also having decent vision. Excellent in the dot, too - arguably the best in the OHL. If he can get the mental side figured out he has a good shot at making it as he has every tool in the box. If not, I reckon he'll be saying "what if" when he looks back on things later in life.
Ceiling: 2nd line C
Probable: 4A C
Floor: Outright bust
Also in consideration
Jeremy McKenna
One dimensional goal scorer but scoring goals is the most difficult skill in hockey. Excellent at getting open and finding gaps in coverage which allows him to get his hard and accurate shot off. Also terrific on the powerplay. But, his defensive shortcomings significantly reduce his probability of success. Hockey is full of junior snipers who didn't pan out, but there are a few who have turned into mighty good scorers. Over 5 shots per game is insane.
Ceiling: 2nd line W
Probable: Tweener
Floor: Outright bust
After Ruzicka and McKenna, I see a drop with the rest of the lot, noting I value ceiling much higher than probability of playing a handful of games on the 4th line.
Lucas Feuk
Milos Roman
Ryan Lomberg
Demetrios Koumontzis
Glenn Gawdin
Luke Philp
Eetu Tuulola
Josh Nodler
Alex Yelesin
Carl-Johan Lerby
Rinat Valiev
Dustin Wolf
Jon Gillies
N/A
Artem Zagidulin
Nick Schneider
No hope
Spencer Foo
Mitchell Mattson
Linus Lindstrom
Andrew Nielsen
Justin Kirkland
Pavel Karnaukhov
__________________
"I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?"
Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
"You ain't gotta like me. You're just mad 'cause I tell it how it is and you tell it how it might be."
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07-20-2019, 06:08 AM
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#27
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tromboner
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: where the lattes are
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neo45
Also in support of Ruzicka (voted Yelesin though)
- highest NHLe of the players remaining (pretty sure at least)
- higher NHLe this season than Pelletier, MEP, Phillips etc
- has size
- good defensively and on faceoffs which lowers the bust factor for me
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I tried to find a list of Flames prospects with NHLe but couldn't find one. (Could of course make one, but I have other projects.)
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07-20-2019, 05:11 PM
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#28
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SebC
I tried to find a list of Flames prospects with NHLe but couldn't find one. (Could of course make one, but I have other projects.)
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These are from my own model, which will vary from others' so use skepticism and adjust as you see fit. Adjusted column is adjusting everyone to age 24.0. As always, huge impact from (or lack of) special teams minutes.
- Dube, Phillips, Gawdin should be given extra credit as AHL rookies (very tough level change).
- Philp and Koumontzis excluded.
- Mattson credited with 1 point though he actually had 0.
__________________
"I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?"
Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
"You ain't gotta like me. You're just mad 'cause I tell it how it is and you tell it how it might be."
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07-20-2019, 06:01 PM
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#29
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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I'll get a new one up tomorrow.
Took a pass today in light of the Lucic napalm
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The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Bingo For This Useful Post:
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07-20-2019, 06:08 PM
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#30
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All I can get
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Conditional 2020 Third Rounder.
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07-22-2019, 12:02 PM
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#31
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2016
Location: ATCO Field, Section 201
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So, it's a run off?
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