[Trade] Flames acquire Mike Smith (25% retained) for Chad Johnson, Brandon Hickey, & cond 3rd

[bigrangy]

The Hart Trophy will be awarded to the wrong guy on the grease this year but Chiarelli couldn't accept fast enough if Treliving was dumb enough to offer Hamilton for him.

[Roof-Daddy]

I concur, goalies are very weird value wise. You'd think they'd be the most valuable assets because they play the most minutes and obviously have a huge influence on the success of their team. Really though, I don't think any goalie is as valuable on the open market as they are to their own team.

The biggest reason for this IMO, is not a lot separates a higher end goalie from an average one. Your average NHL starter faces about 1800 shots in a season. A goalie with a 0.915 sv% will save 1648 of those shots. A goalie with a 0.925 sv% will save 1665 of them. A difference of 17 goals.

So take the Flames for instance. If they had a goalie save them from 17 more goals against that would have dropped them from 219 GA to 202 GA, a difference of 8%.

However, the Flames scored 222 goals and Dougie Hamilton had 50 points, so he contributed to 23% of the Flames offense last season.

So you have a 1st round pick. One Gm is going to give you a potential 50 point Dman for it, the other GM is going to give you a potential 0.925 sv% goalie. Which one do you take?

I take the Dman every time and then go bargain bin shopping for an average 0.915 sv% goalie.

[blender]

[QUOTE=Fan in Exile;6292442]Talbot cost a 2nd, a 3rd and a 7th. His cap hit is 4.1.

Hamilton cost a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd. His cap hit is 5.75.

I like Hamilton but do you really think he's more valuable to the Flames than Talbot is to the Oilers? I disagree. Maybe if he keeps on getting better in the future. But surely not right now. Do you think the Oilers would trade Talbot for Hamilton and Mike Smith?[/QUOTE]

I'm not sure what the Oilers would or wouldn't do is a good indicator of anything, but in my opinion they'd be crazy NOT to do that trade.

[RougeUnderoos]

This thread for some reason reminds me of the way Oilers fans talk, never conceding that they did anything but the best thing ever, especially when it comes to the Flames.

They got a good goalie, unfortunately. The Flames got a good defenseman, fortunately.

They are such different things, I'm not sure why we're going around and around on this.

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

This thread for some reason reminds me of the way Oilers fans talk, never conceding that they did anything but the best thing ever, especially when it comes to the Flames.

They got a good goalie, unfortunately. The Flames got a good defenseman, fortunately.

They are such different things, I'm not sure why we're going around and around on this.

I agree with you and I concede the point on what goalies get compared to D-men on the open market. Don't want to carry this on further. Really, the initial point with which I concur is that Treliving hasn't solved our needs in net yet. Smith is a stop-gap and hopefully one that succeeds, and hopefully our prospects are ready to take over by then. A lot of big ifs remaining if you ask me. If it's so easy to sign a Talbot or a Jones, then we should have done so by now without squandering so many assets and a berth in the playoffs. Jones for San Jose, Talbot for the Oilers, and Andersen for the Leafs have made huge impacts for their teams. Teams who haven't figured their goaltending out, such as the Stars, have squandered prime years of some great players on their rosters.

So sure, kudos to Treliving for getting Hamilton. But I'm sceptical that we've solved our goaltending issues with this latest move.

[FireGilbert]

Originally Posted by SmoggyFlamesFan

The last time the flames had a goalie with "Mike" as his first name, they won the cup. Just saying!

Also, isn't Miikka Finish for Michael?

It's obvious that the Flames + goalie Mike = success!

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

I agree with you and I concede the point on what goalies get compared to D-men on the open market. Don't want to carry this on further. Really, the initial point with which I concur is that Treliving hasn't solved our needs in net yet. Smith is a stop-gap and hopefully one that succeeds, and hopefully our prospects are ready to take over by then. A lot of big ifs remaining if you ask me. If it's so easy to sign a Talbot or a Jones, then we should have done so by now without squandering so many assets and a berth in the playoffs. Jones for San Jose, Talbot for the Oilers, and Andersen for the Leafs have made huge impacts for their teams. Teams who haven't figured their goaltending out, such as the Stars, have squandered prime years of some great players on their rosters.

So sure, kudos to Treliving for getting Hamilton. But I'm sceptical that we've solved our goaltending issues with this latest move.

Yeah fair enough. Smith is definitely a stop-gap measure. But the Flames do have a gap that needs stopping, and that gap is a #1 goalie. So here we are. Hopefully it works.

I do wonder if we were so spoiled by the ridiculous way the Kiprusoff trade turned out that we might expect too much? Talk about squandering some prime years though. Sigh.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

However, the Flames scored 222 goals and Dougie Hamilton had 50 points, so he contributed to 23% of the Flames offense last season.

You're looking at this wrong. The goalie's impact on GA is far more attributable to him than the defenseman's impact on GF... someone else would take his minutes, an assist is only part of a goal. The Flames, without Dougie Hamilton, would be unlikely to score 23% less goals with other players replacing his minutes. You're looking at the goalie's difference from replacement, but not applying that logic for the defenseman.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by SebC

You're looking at this wrong. The goalie's impact on GA is far more attributable to him than the defenseman's impact on GF... someone else would take his minutes, an assist is only part of a goal. The Flames, without Dougie Hamilton, would be unlikely to score 23% less goals with other players replacing his minutes. You're looking at the goalie's difference from replacement, but not applying that logic for the defenseman.

Yeah, it's complicated but another thing Dougie Hamilton (or any good top pairing Dman for that matter) does is help prevent goals, not just contribute offense.

I didn't account for that either.

My point is, a high end skater (especially Dmen and centers) are much harder to replace and make more of a difference to their team winning than a high end goaltender, because downgrading that high end goaltender to just an average goaltender (which is easy to do) doesn't subtract from the team as much as taking out a high end skater would.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

This thread for some reason reminds me of the way Oilers fans talk, never conceding that they did anything but the best thing ever, especially when it comes to the Flames.

I don't know about that, there is a lot of dissent in this thread. I'm pretty lukewarm about Smith personally. Better than some of the options, but not exactly what I was hoping for. I only spoke up because I feel the Hamilton trade was a home run. I'll be happy enough if this Smith signing is a broken bat single.

[868904]

No one thought Talbot would be as good as he has been.

The team that saw him the most and was most familiar with him traded him away for a low return. If they thought he was a Vezina or Conn Smythe type goalie, they would have demanded a lot more.

Hamilton was much more proven a commodity at the time.

Oilers got lucky as usual, stupid horseshoes up their butt.

You can't just look at the Talbot trad and assume that Raanta or Grubauer would do the same thing. Furthermore, Talbot didn't lead the Oilers to the playoffs in his first year, it took him a year to adjust. The Treliving haters would be out in full force if he acquired Raanta or Grubauer and they took the same adjustment time as Talbot.

[FlamesAddiction]

When was the last time a 35+ year old goalie joined a new team and had a lot of success?

[Corral]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

When was the last time a 35+ year old goalie joined a new team and had a lot of success?

i want to say Dwayne Roloson with the Wild or the Oilers run in 2006? but i'm not sure of this.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Do you think the Oilers would trade Talbot for Hamilton and Mike Smith?

I absolutely think Edmonton would make that trade, without thinking twice.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

When was the last time a 35+ year old goalie joined a new team and had a lot of success?

Luongo to the Panthers. 2014.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I concur, goalies are very weird value wise. You'd think they'd be the most valuable assets because they play the most minutes and obviously have a huge influence on the success of their team. Really though, I don't think any goalie is as valuable on the open market as they are to their own team.

The biggest reason for this IMO, is not a lot separates a higher end goalie from an average one. Your average NHL starter faces about 1800 shots in a season. A goalie with a 0.915 sv% will save 1648 of those shots. A goalie with a 0.925 sv% will save 1665 of them. A difference of 17 goals.

So take the Flames for instance. If they had a goalie save them from 17 more goals against that would have dropped them from 219 GA to 202 GA, a difference of 8%.

However, the Flames scored 222 goals and Dougie Hamilton had 50 points, so he contributed to 23% of the Flames offense last season.

So you have a 1st round pick. One Gm is going to give you a potential 50 point Dman for it, the other GM is going to give you a potential 0.925 sv% goalie. Which one do you take?

I take the Dman every time and then go bargain bin shopping for an average 0.915 sv% goalie.

Have fun shopping - the odds are steep against your team winning the Cup with your bargain bin goaltender. Proven money goaltenders rarely see the open market in their prime years - and I mean the real legit guys like currently Carey Price or Jonathan Quick or when Mikka was the best in the NHL - that's why the market value for goalies seems weird.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

I agree with you and I concede the point on what goalies get compared to D-men on the open market. Don't want to carry this on further. Really, the initial point with which I concur is that Treliving hasn't solved our needs in net yet.

Do you think maybe this is yet another sign that building a team is really hard work?

Smith is a stop-gap and hopefully one that succeeds, and hopefully our prospects are ready to take over by then. A lot of big ifs remaining if you ask me. If it's so easy to sign a Talbot or a Jones, then we should have done so by now without squandering so many assets and a berth in the playoffs. Jones for San Jose, Talbot for the Oilers, and Andersen for the Leafs have made huge impacts for their teams. Teams who haven't figured their goaltending out, such as the Stars, have squandered prime years of some great players on their rosters.

I don't think anyone would disagree that Smith is a stopgap, and there is still a long term issue in goal that needs to be resolved. But here is the thing: ALL of those teams that you have listed which have effectively addressed their netmninding issues continue to have other holes on the roster which require filling. This is part and parcel of competing in today's NHL. The Flames are still a work in progress, and while they inch closer to their ultimate goal with every successive season, there is still work to be done. It seems abundantly clear to me that Treliving is both aware of that, and he has a plan in place to address the issues over time, and to continue to slowly build the Flames into a championship team. If the team continues to improve incrementally each year, then I would say that he is still effectively doing his job. Does Smith improve the Flames for next year? I think the answer is most likely "yes."

So sure, kudos to Treliving for getting Hamilton. But I'm sceptical that we've solved our goaltending issues with this latest move.

Of course goaltending has not been "solved." What Treliving has done with Smith is bought time while he continues to find a permanent solution.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Do you think maybe this is yet another sign that building a team is really hard work?

Of course goaltending has not been "solved." What Treliving has done with Smith is bought time while he continues to find a permanent solution.

Paraphrasing, Tre is again handling goaltending like a live grenade.

It's obvious Smith is not a long term solution.

There is still time left in the off season, and I get the idea that Vegas can have a different ask for a truly desperate team.

But if we enter the season with Smith, as it appears we will, then what the heck, bring back the 3 headed monster.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Corral

i want to say Dwayne Roloson with the Wild or the Oilers run in 2006? but i'm not sure of this.

Seriously?? Tim Thomas won a Stanley Cup at the age of 37 in 2011. But it really depends on what the poster means by "success." I would say that the expectations on the Flames with Smith in goal should be at least two or three playoff series' wins.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Paraphrasing, Tre is again handling goaltending like a live grenade.

While I believe he likely could have resolved the issue over the last two years I do believe it would have come at the expense of some other crucial parts of the roster. I would say Treliving is managing his goaltending.