Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Beninho]

Neal is ####, I’d rather have a 3rd round pick than that cancer on the team


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[cannon7]

Neal: -8
Lucic: -4

[Azure]

At the end of the day a guy showing up not ready to play at the start of the season and then basically acting like a child all year long because a better play stole his spot is going to create a massive problem in the locker room and on the ice.

[JohnnyB]

I don't have a problem with Lucic after having watched him play a few games, apart from his being way overpaid for what he brings. I still don't like the trade though because of who the partner was and that the player we sent them is a good fit for their needs. As is, Neal is a good goal scoring fit for a team that is in direct competition with the Flames. The Oilers are two points ahead of the Flames, they are +6 as a team and Neal has 12 goals. The Flames are definitely a better team, and should still be ahead in the long run, but Neal has been a good boost to them and made them better than they were.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Dragomir

Nothing wrong with admitting we lost that trade pretty badly in the short term. That draft pick could change all of this but Tre really messed up this whole situation, I hope he’s learned his lesson from this.


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Oilers scoring after 18 games last season:
Draisaitl + McDavid 21 goals
Chiasson 6
Caggiula 6
RNH 4
12 other guys combine for 15 goals, with nobody having more than 2.

Oilers scoring this season:
Draisaitl + McDavid 22 goals
Neal 12
Kassian 4
10 other guys combine for 13 goals, with nobody having more than 2.

As expected, Neal has done nothing to improve their overall scoring. He's just getting fed the opportunities others used to get. His personal numbers are way up, as expected, but their overall scoring is actually down by a goal compared to last season.

[Robbob]

Yup. Lindolm is far superior to Neal in every aspect of the game. Flames don't need Neal because Linholm is better. Every one clamoring about the Neal trade and all his goals need to ask themselves would they give that ice time to Neal instead of Lindholm or Tkachuk? That is what it would take for him to be in a similar role. I have not looked at the stats, but I would be pretty confident that even strength Mangiapane brings more to the table than Neal.

That is why Neal is no good and would never have done what he is doing this year in Calgary. He would not be able to break into the top 6, top 9 is debatable. Neal had trouble making the top 12 when the season was on the line. This trade was always about sending a 5.25M 13th forward because they didn't fit, for a 6M with money retained bottom 6 player. The draft pick is just a bonus.

Even Rene Corbet saw an uptick of production when he came to the Flames because he was given more ice time with Fleury.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I don't have a problem with Lucic after having watched him play a few games, apart from his being way overpaid for what he brings. I still don't like the trade though because of who the partner was and that the player we sent them is a good fit for their needs. As is, Neal is a good goal scoring fit for a team that is in direct competition with the Flames. The Oilers are two points ahead of the Flames, they are +6 as a team and Neal has 12 goals. The Flames are definitely a better team, and should still be ahead in the long run, but Neal has been a good boost to them and made them better than they were.

See I don’t get this. Do people actually think Neal is a good hockey player? If you watched him last season you’d know he isn’t. He’s total garbage. We sabotaged them by giving them Neal. Good fit for their needs? I didn’t know their needs were to acquire more players that are god awful 5 on 5. Neal doesn’t significantly improve the Oilers at all imo.

[monkeyman]

People are too caught up in the number of goals and seem to be forgetting that a team is made up of many different parts. Teams need these different parts to be successful and Lucic is an important part of this team, he provides a part this team was missing.
Besides his physical presence, Lucic seems to be a better fit in the locker room, and despite the lack of points, has created chances and made a lot of great plays. It's really only a matter of time before some of those chances start to convert.
Lucic's presence also reduces/removes the need for other players who are not suited to play that role from having to do it. It opens them up to play roles they're better suited for.
Neal, if not scoring provides nothing, and even when he scores, his defensive liabilities outpace his production.
I'd still take Lucic 10 times out of 10 based on this teams needs, add in the contract disparity and it's a slam dunk.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

See I don’t get this. Do people actually think Neal is a good hockey player? If you watched him last season you’d know he isn’t. He’s total garbage. We sabotaged them by giving them Neal. Good fit for their needs? I didn’t know their needs were to acquire more players that are god awful 5 on 5. Neal doesn’t significantly improve the Oilers at all imo.

I honestly don't know if the Oilers would have even made the deal if Lucic's contract wasn't less impactful to buy out.

Calgary wanted him gone, sounds like they asked ownership to buy him out and were rebuffed, so found the only deal they could. Can't believe how many times this needs to be revisted.

The disaster was the Neal signing, the trade is doing the best they can with said disaster.

My hope in this was a better 5 on 5 player that could provide a physical element. So far this year Lucic has been a factor in 3-4 games for his physical play and his holding his own 5 on 5.

Comparison

xGF%
Neal 48.1%
Lucic 51.1%

Shots%
Neal 47.6%
Lucic 53.3%

HDCF%
Neal 50.8%
Lucic 51.2%

Zone Starts
Neal 70.8%
Lucic 47.8%

Neal is playing with better players, getting favourable sheltering, and is pushing the needle less.

Pretty much what I hoped for.

[EldrickOnIce]

Has probably been said once each page, but both are no good. That the Flames have one on the payroll is a reminder of the many blunders Treliving has made through free agency, this one obviously the worst.
But if given a choose, I would take Lucic every time.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I just want that sweet sweet third round pick

[Travis Munroe]

Isn't the trade on pace to become
To EDM
Neal + an additional 750k cap bite

To CGY
Lucic - 750k cap
3rd Round Pick

When watching Lucic, I ignore what he is being paid as we really didn't have any option.... we were going to have a player with that cap hit regardless so which player do I prefer?

Lucic has added some serious jam to the team and also make the games more fun to watch knowing if something happens, we have someone to take care of it not named Tkachuk or Bennett.

Neal is scoring at a great clip and good for him. He has made the oilers better but I wouldn't make a trade based on what it will possibly do for the other team. You trade for your own team.

To this point in the season, with the cap space the oilers gave (required to sign Tkachuk and keep the same team) and the third round pick, I call the trade very even.

If the Oilers do not protect Neal and he is taken off their hands for free, then the Oilers win the trade unless our third round pick turns into a NHL player. At this rate, the Oilers may protect Neal and we would have to assess the trade in 2-3 years. If Neal isn't putting 12+ goals in the net at that point, it is a anchor for an anchor but we will have a third rounder, cap space and a gritty player to show for it.

[Strange Brew]

If you truly believe Neal is the worst player in the league and will sabotage whatever team he is on, I can only imagine what your opinion must be of the GM who signed him to a cap busting long term deal.

I honestly don't know how long we can go around and around essentially saying the same things, it was a clusterf*** in every way possible.

The signing itself was disaster. Poorly thought out and researched it would seem.
The player himself was an utter disaster in his one year here, in every way possible.
The attempts to rehabilitate or extract some value from him during the season failed miserably.
The trade for Lucic was poor asset management with the team selling as low as possible on an asset. Because of the first three failures, it seems Treliving saw no other option.

Really the only thing that could happen that would change my view on any of this is if Lucic showed he was more than a replacement level player, which I'm really not seeing.

[Vinny01]

The problem with the Neal signing is it was only going to work if he played on the top line. He wouldn’t fit with Backlund in a shutdown role and Janko/Bennett were not good enough to carry him either.

I was a huge fan of the signing because I though we needed another top 6 forward and Lindholm was going to replace Frolik on the second line chipping in with 15-20 goals and 40-50pts. The great news is Lindholm is much more than that and is a legit top line player capable of near ppg production. Neal came in like a guy that just got paid and was not fully engaged. He sulked when he wasn’t given a huge rope on the top line and basically punched his ticket out of town.

[zamler]

The problem with the Neal signing is the guy that signed him it's not any more complicated. Now isn't it time to move on?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

If you truly believe Neal is the worst player in the league and will sabotage whatever team he is on, I can only imagine what your opinion must be of the GM who signed him to a cap busting long term deal.

I honestly don't know how long we can go around and around essentially saying the same things, it was a clusterf*** in every way possible.

The signing itself was disaster. Poorly thought out and researched it would seem.
The player himself was an utter disaster in his one year here, in every way possible.
The attempts to rehabilitate or extract some value from him during the season failed miserably.
The trade for Lucic was poor asset management with the team selling as low as possible on an asset. Because of the first three failures, it seems Treliving saw no other option.

Really the only thing that could happen that would change my view on any of this is if Lucic showed he was more than a replacement level player, which I'm really not seeing.

Agree completely on the signing, and assessing the team's (Treliving's) ability to sign UFAs.

If you want him gone, and can't buy him out you shop him. I honestly think the Lucic option was the only one available. So not sure I see it as asset management at that point, but sunk cost accounting.

Interesting to see the replacement player thing ...

To date Evolving Wild has the two players at the following

Goals Above Replacement
Neal -0.7
Lucic 0.2

Wins Above Replacement
Neal -0.1
Lucic 0.0

In both measures, Neal is the one below replacement value, and that includes all ice time, not just even strength.

Neal is a boat anchor when it comes to even strength offence at a -1.8, which matches what we saw last year to a "T"

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by zamler

The problem with the Neal signing is the guy that signed him it's not any more complicated. Now isn't it time to move on?

They've gone from a non playoff team to a conference winner, improved their draft record, and the guy has won his share of trades.

So no ...

But I hope he's learned (they've learned) on the UFA front.

[The Big Chill]

If you ever find yourself thinking that Neal's goals might have been useful here this season, just go rewatch the Colorado series.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Agree completely on the signing, and assessing the team's (Treliving's) ability to sign UFAs.

If you want him gone, and can't buy him out you shop him. I honestly think the Lucic option was the only one available. So not sure I see it as asset management at that point, but sunk cost accounting.

Interesting to see the replacement player thing ...

To date Evolving Wild has the two players at the following

Goals Above Replacement
Neal -0.7
Lucic 0.2

Wins Above Replacement
Neal -0.1
Lucic 0.0

In both measures, Neal is the one below replacement value, and that includes all ice time, not just even strength.

Neal is a boat anchor when it comes to even strength offence at a -1.8, which matches what we saw last year to a "T"

I hear what you are saying. I guess at what point was Neal a totally sunk cost? He certainly wouldn't be the first player whose request for a trade was not granted. Could you have gotten more for him if he shows up in shape and ready to play? At what point last year did you realize the mistake and could have gotten something for him? Honestly thinking about it just kind of pisses me off.

The wins and goals vs. replacement I guess are indicative of Neal's shooting percentage. Presumably his PP goals have actually helped the team win. Wins that are in the bank now and can't be disputed. But even so, can't say I miss the guy.

[stang]

The real questions are how many more points will Lucic have over Smith? And will Lucic punch him in the head again?