Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2020 - Round 8

[Bingo]

It's time for the 8th annual Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking, but at a different time of year and certainly at a different time.

First a look back at previous years can be done with this handy link: Previous Results

Once again vote how you want. There are those that vote 100% on potential, some that vote 100% on the likelihood to see an NHL rink, others that apply a mix, some using the value in a trade. Completely up to you.

I'll run one a day until we are done, and then FlamesAddiction wants to do a one off list version to compare the results.

We start with 35 names so this should get us pretty close to a Flames camp.

2020 Results
1. Valimaki - 85%
2. Zary - 62%
3. Pelletier - 74%
4. Wolf (Run Off)
5. Mackey (Run Off)
6. Pettersen 42%
7. Phillips 36%

[Funkhouser]

Lil' Z for me...he has put up great numbers in Jr. and was signed early to his entry level by the Flames which tells me they see serious potential.

Gawdin may be a safer pick to make the NHL as a 4th liner, but Z still has potential as a middle-sixer IMO.

[Enoch Root]

Sticking with the killer Ps... Poirier, then Parsons

[ForeverFlameFan]

Zavgorodniy

[Cali Panthers Fan]

It came down to 3 Russians for me: Nikolaev, Kuznetsov, and Chechelev.

Of the three, Chechelev has the most impressive numbers, but he's a goalie in a lower league. Can't take that too seriously yet.

Nikolaev has some abilities, and is a point per game player so far in the MHL, but has a ways to go before he's NHL ready.

Kuznetsov plays a mobile defensive game, and can be dominant in that facet. I doubt he scores much in the NHL, but a really good shutdown d-man shouldn't be overlooked. He's playing in a strong program at Connecticut, and by already playing in North America, has the strongest shot of transitioning to the NHL.

I went with Kuznetsov, and I don't doubt that I'll be voting for a while, but I see really good NHL potential there.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

It came down to 3 Russians for me: Nikolaev, Kuznetsov, and Chechelev.

Of the three, Chechelev has the most impressive numbers, but he's a goalie in a lower league. Can't take that too seriously yet.

Nikolaev has some abilities, and is a point per game player so far in the MHL, but has a ways to go before he's NHL ready.

Kuznetsov plays a mobile defensive game, and can be dominant in that facet. I doubt he scores much in the NHL, but a really good shutdown d-man shouldn't be overlooked. He's playing in a strong program at Connecticut, and by already playing in North America, has the strongest shot of transitioning to the NHL.

I went with Kuznetsov, and I don't doubt that I'll be voting for a while, but I see really good NHL potential there.

I dont think it's impossible that Kuznetsov develops his own style of offensive game too- no one ever thought Chara was going to put up big points at NHL level but he rounded out his own offensive game to suit his play style.

I think we're sleeping on Kuznetsov. He was the youngest player in college last year and was not at all out of his element. He has a lot of potential.

[timbit]

Kind of baffling how Poirier is getting more votes than Kuznetsov when the latter was drafted,earlier, in the 2nd round, 2 weeks ago.

[GioforPM]

I generally start out these polls looking at ceiling. As they move on I start weighing floor (as in "odds of making the NHL") a lot more heavily, because there are always some guys with incredible ceilings who have notable flaws that almost guarantee that the NHL is a real long shot. That's when I start looking at guys like Gawdin, who is almost certainly a call-up consideration right now.

[SuperMatt18]

This prospect ranking is one of the toughest IMO - with a big group of guys that could all be justified from 5 on IMO.

You had the clear top 3 IMO: Valimaki, Zary, Pelletier.

Then Wolf who has done nothing but be exceptional in his WHL career.

Then you have a big grouping of guys that IMO have all had pretty similar results/pedigree.

Mackey - Top College UFA
Pettersen - Strong NCAA performance
Phillips - Proven at the AHL level
Gawdin - Proven at the AHL level
Kuznetsov - Recent second rounder with strong NCAA as a 17 year old
Kinnvall - Dominating against men in Sweden
Poirier - First round talent that dropped to round 3
Zavgorodiy - Strong post draft QMJHL performance

Honestly IMO you could have any of those guys in any order from 5-12.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by timbit

Kind of baffling how Poirier is getting more votes than Kuznetsov when the latter was drafted,earlier, in the 2nd round, 2 weeks ago.

More baffling to me is the amount of votes that a defenseman who doesnt play defence is getting.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by timbit

Kind of baffling how Poirier is getting more votes than Kuznetsov when the latter was drafted,earlier, in the 2nd round, 2 weeks ago.

I think it illustrates that fans like players with a high ceiling. GMs understand that you have to build a full roster, and it takes all kinds of players to build a good team.

But fans want the sexy players, the point producers and PP guys.

Poirier is a flawed player, but with the potential to be a top pairing offensive defenseman. Some feel he is the steal of the draft. Some feel he is the most talented defenseman in the draft. But unless he learns how to play defense, he will never see the NHL.

Kuznetsov is not as sexy and doesn't have the offensive potential, but he is a better all around player. He is far more likely to play in the NHL but has a lower ceiling - probably a bottom pair or middle pair guy.

Fans are always going to prefer the Poirier types - more hope and excitement attached to them.

[Bingo]

Plus that's not really the whole story.

Poirier was selected after Kuznetsov ... can't argue that.

But rating and projections going into the draft had Poirier potentially going first round, and Kuznetsov going later than the second.

He's flawed so I didn't vote for Poirier until round eight, but at some point you have to give a nod to out right skill and see where the player takes it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by transplant99

More baffling to me is the amount of votes that a defenseman who doesnt play defence is getting.

Beyond the top few, all of the remaining players are flawed. They all need to improve on their deficiencies if they have any hopes of playing in the NHL.

Playing defense is a learned skill. And Poirier will be coached HARD in order to improve on his defense. If he can improve that, he has elite offensive potential.

And you can't teach elite.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I look at bust potential at this point in the rankings, and admittedly, I use different criteria at different rounds of the ranking. Having all the skill in the world doesn't mean much if you never play an NHL game because you can't do anything else at an NHL level.

That's Poirier to me. Crazy offensive skill, but almost nothing else that will make him an NHLer. It can be taught, but he is far more likely to bust than to make the NHL. I have him in this group of players, but he's lower down for me, around 10.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I look at bust potential at this point in the rankings, and admittedly, I use different criteria at different rounds of the ranking. Having all the skill in the world doesn't mean much if you never play an NHL game because you can't do anything else at an NHL level.

That's Poirier to me. Crazy offensive skill, but almost nothing else that will make him an NHLer. It can be taught, but he is far more likely to bust than to make the NHL. I have him in this group of players, but he's lower down for me, around 10.

For sure he is. Which is why he went in the 3rd round instead of the 1st.

[1991 Canadian]

Went with Gawdin here. Right hand shot. Seems to be projecting to be a bottom 6 utility player.

There are more exciting prospects left that have a higher potential ceiling, but at some point there is some value to the Bouma's and Jooris' of the world.

I'm a sucker for these "free" prospect signings. Most don't work out, but they provide a decent amount of value if they do. I think having a steady stream of these type of prospects is incredibly important in the salary cap era. It makes it a lot easier to walk away from a Colborne, Jankowski, Bouma, etc... arbitration. Being able to slot in a 700k player vs a 1.5 million player adds up.

[Freddy]

Kuznetsov for me; a big mobile defensive defenseman that committed himself to a pro hockey lifestyle (playing away from home, extra time spent in the gym) at a super young age tells me he has great potential to transition smoothly up every level until he’s there with the best in the world. I hope he becomes the Flames top pairing shutdown D capable of stifling the McDavids, Lafrenieres, etc.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I went with little Z but at this stage it's close between all of him, Poirier, Kuznetzov, Gawdin and others. Hard to quibble with any of those choices.

[keenan87]

Going with Gawdin again for the 3rd straight round.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Crazy offensive skill, but almost nothing else that will make him an NHLer. It can be taught, but he is far more likely to bust than to make the NHL. I have him in this group of players, but he's lower down for me, around 10.

I don't like this take.

What you're implying is that Poirier is just some guy who shows up in the offensive zone, creates a few chances, and then does absolutely nothing in the other two zones.

It isn't that simple.

Yes, he clearly does struggle without the puck. Could be plenty of reasons for that. Maybe he's never been asked to focus on the defensive side. Maybe the systems his team plays magnify his issues. Maybe he's never had his "Method" or "Brodie" type partner to cover for him at that end, which again magnifies his issues. Or maybe he's just bad. But let's set all of that aside for now, because we know that:

1) He admits he's not at all good at that end, and needs to get better
2) He will probably spend time in the AHL working on that end, in an organization that can really show him video of his miscues and afford him minor league icetime to make mistakes to learn from

I'd rather focus on attributes that could make him an NHLer that aren't as simplistic as "offensive skill".

- Elite at controlled zone exits - low turnover rate with elite exit rate
- High-end skating ability

Why?

1) Because if you can get the puck out of the zone, you defend less.
2) If you can skate, you can recover from poor positioning and still close gaps

Ultimately, I believe the idea of a "boom or bust" prospect is so overstated. Most prospects bust. Even role players at the NHL level though, have some high-end attribute that got their foot in the door. If for Poirier that's his offense, that still gives him a higher chance at getting a chance in the NHL than, say, Boltmann who will need to absolutely PERFECT his game to take it to the next level.

I've seen some people compare Poirier to Kylington, and I can see why.

What I will say is this - Kylington's defensive game has come miles from where it was when he was drafted. If he has had any issues in the NHL, it's arguably been at the offensive end where he doesn't generate as much as we need him to and ends up being a net-zero type player when we need more. Of course he's not perfect defensively, but he's more than passable at this point and those other attributes can swing a game. If Kylington can start scoring more, he's a potent top six defenseman, still with a high enough ceiling to be more. Why can't Poirier follow a Kylington type development curve at the defensive end?

So yeah, I'm voting Poirier, but I do also like the potential of guys like Zavgorodny and Parsons