Alexander Ovechkin v. The World

[zamler]

Originally Posted by browna

When you see how terrible the goalies in the league were for the first half of Gretzky career or more, and the goals he and players got on goalies who’s only move was a awkward kick save, Ovechkin getting within 100 of Gretzky (802 and pass Howe) would be much more of a feat.

It's all relative training back then was vastly worse, equipment and a whole bunch of other things were inferior.

But I think Ovechkin can and will beat 99's record.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by zamler

It's all relative training back then was vastly worse, equipment and a whole bunch of other things were inferior.

But I think Ovechkin can and will beat 99's record.

Ovechkin is a blend of Bobby Hull and Mike Bossy, power and exceptionally quick release and yes...

He has a chance.

[zamler]

I think he'll do it because Alex has been durable. But it does depend a whole lot on how the Caps do the next 5 years if they turn to suck then I can see Ovechkin not getting there.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Nsd1

Maybe Neon Leon up north. He needs 440 to get to 600 but is a year older than McDavid. He has been out scoring Conner though.

I added the poll and included the German Gretzky. The thing is, he has not actually scored at a higher rate than McDavid over the past three years, and is only matching his pace now because McDavid has missed games this year.

[Flashpoint]

I think age 34-36 is a lot steeper decline of a hill than 32-34. I hope for the best for Ovi, but doubt he manages it.

[TheScorpion]

I would easily put $100 on Ovechkin hitting 895. He'll play until he gets it.

[DeluxeMoustache]

What may end up mattering most would be - is he ... young and fresh?

[Chingas]

Looking at that list makes it even more criminal that Iginla (625) wasn't recognized in the top 100 players of all time.

[djsFlames]

Was just going to say, this list makes Iginla's feat of 625 that much more impressive in the modern era, with one of his prime scoring years taken away too (without the '05 lockout he could've feasibly finished around 675).

One of the goal scoring greats.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I would easily put $100 on Ovechkin hitting 895. He'll play until he gets it.

Yeah, I wouldn't underestimate a man's willpower and longevity when you have an all time record there possibly in reach.

We've seen Thornton be a highly effective PPG producer until age 36, and a 50 point guy until last year.

I think it's a lock if #8 can hit 50 the next two seasons to pass 800 at 36.

Just needs to save the scoring drop off until after 36, but if he plays till 40 can chip away at those final 95 over his last few years.

[gt4flames]

The real bet is of how many cups will Mcavi win before OVY scores 800...


Two pieces of math ADD up...
E=NG and...


(Top of the circle*Backstrom sauce)^One Timer + powerplay time=995 goals.

(this is if you use BEDMAS as a formula solving premise...Brackets;exponents;Devision/Multiplication;Addition/subtraction)

[transplant99]

I dont think there is any way Ovechkin catches Gretzky....and I am cheering for him to do so.

Father time is undefeated and AO cannot beat him either.

Gretzky was 5 years younger than Ovi when he hit 700.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Gretzky was 5 years younger than Ovi when he hit 700.

Okay but Gretzky had 23 goals at 34, Ovechkin at 34 has 42 and counting.

Time and age are against him, that decline can happen any moment and suddenly but would I bet against it, would I say there "isn't any way"?

No way!

[Strange Brew]

As both Gretzky and Ovechkin get older, they became more one dimensional. Gretzky became exclusively a playmaker and Ovechkin becoming primarily a sniper. His stat line this year is Cy Young-esque.

That kind of works in his favor for catching Gretzky.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

As both Gretzky and Ovechkin get older, they became more one dimensional. Gretzky became exclusively a playmaker and Ovechkin becoming primarily a sniper. His stat line this year is Cy Young-esque.

Three straight seasons from age 27-29 are hilarious. 154 goals, 77 helpers.

[Kovaz]

I think the main determinant for Ovechkin passing Gretzky is how long he can keep scoring ~50. If he finishes out this year at his current pace (57 goals), then averages 50 the next two, he's sitting at 815 going into his age 37 season and I think he'll be able to crank in 25-30 goals a season until he's 50 if he wants to as a PP specialist.

But if he drops off sooner it gets exponentially more difficult.

[FlamingHabs Fan]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

I think the main determinant for Ovechkin passing Gretzky is how long he can keep scoring ~50. If he finishes out this year at his current pace (57 goals), then averages 50 the next two, he's sitting at 815 going into his age 37 season and I think he'll be able to crank in 25-30 goals a season until he's 50 if he wants to as a PP specialist.

But if he drops off sooner it gets exponentially more difficult.

That's the thing, if he has two or three more 50 goal season, Gretzky is easy pickings. I think he wants 1,000 goals tbh, his game style and ability to stay healthy say it is possible if he plays into his 40s.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by FlamingHabs Fan

That's the thing, if he has two or three more 50 goal season, Gretzky is easy pickings. I think he wants 1,000 goals tbh, his game style and ability to stay healthy say it is possible if he plays into his 40s.

No. It's really not.

Ovechkin would need the equivalent of SIX more 50-goal seasons to score 1,000. The greatest goal scorer of all time is on his way to his ninth in 15 years. I could see two more, because Ovechkin is just that good. But six? No chance in hell even the Great 8 is capable of that.

Let's say Ovechkin has another seven years, which would take him to 41-years old. In his last seven seasons Ovechkin has scored 329 goals. He is not going to replicate that over the next seven.

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[CroFlames]

I think this is all in his own hands. He appears to have super-human durability to go along with his super-human talent.

If he chooses to play till 40 or 41, the record is his.

If he chooses to hang em up to focus on other things, he will still go down as the GOAT goal scorer but not reaching the record will allow for debate around that point.

[FlamingHabs Fan]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

No. It's really not.

Ovechkin would need the equivalent of SIX more 50-goal seasons to score 1,000. The greatest goal scorer of all time is on his way to his ninth in 15 years. I could see two more, because Ovechkin is just that good. But six? No chance in hell even the Great 8 is capable of that.

Let's say Ovechkin has another seven years, which would take him to 41-years old. In his last seven seasons Ovechkin has scored 329 goals. He is not going to replicate that over the next seven.

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The problem with your analysis is that he is increasing his goals per season if he stays on pace for the current year, so who really knows what is going to happen.

I agree it's a lot but give it 4 years and see where he sits.
Howe had 975 WHA & NHL combined, I think he wants that and then a 1,000 is right there.

Also Howe has 1071, Gretzky has 1072 total all-time NHL, WHA + playoffs for both leagues.
Ovi has 765 total right now (so 65 playoff goals), so he does 1,000 regular reason he for sure has total goals all-time, regular season, postseason total because I am sure he will get at least 8 playoff goals by the end of his career. He does have 55 + 2 postseason from Russia so he could add that in, but I think it wants it in NA leagues.

Bottom line, if the guy plays well into his 40s it is totally doable.