Seven Days in Kabul

[Locke]

Afghanistan is effectively a 'Failed State.'

There would be a better chance for them by just starting over.

[rubecube]

Hang another predictable L on the U.S. military's post-WWII record.

[zamler]

There are roads that lead away, use them and never go back. How many decades of interventionist failures are needed to prove the whole racket doesn't work?

[Baron von Kriterium]

Mazar-i-Sharif has fallen apparently. The Taliban almost completely controls northern Afghanistan now. So much for the legend of "General" Dostum who arrived on 10 Aug to lead the defense. The defending troops have surrendered or fled to Uzbekistan. It's not known if Dostum is still in Afghanistan or if he, too, fled to Uzbekistan. This is the same bridge the Soviets crossed in 1989 when they left Afghanistan.



The only major city (outside of Kabul) the government controls is Jalalabad - ironically located in a major Taliban hotbed.

It is assumed that 50 to 70% of all military equipment, weapons and ammunition supplied by the United States to the Afghan army has fallen into Taliban hands. Roughly speaking, the Taliban will have enough to retrofit 100-150 thousand people.

The Afghan ANDSF - numbering 300,000 in the Spring - is about 40-50,000 now.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Hang another predictable L on the U.S. military's post-WWII record.

While they were In-Country they should have been busy building a Wall.

Just a giant wall around Afghanistan that could be locked from the outside.

Or they could have been proactive and clever. What they should have done is just purchased Toyota and stopped selling the Taliban trucks.

Its a much more challenging prospect to operate an insurgency in Mazda Miatas.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Hang another predictable L on the U.S. military's post-WWII record.

Probably an unfair comment.

Hang another predicable L on the US politicians is a better statement.

There is no doubt in my mind that if the Military was able to wage the war they wanted the result would have been different, of course that would also be dependant upon the public’s acceptance of bodybags coming home at a greater rate.

[FlamesAddiction]

The Taliban seems so well organized compared to what it used to be. Is this something they have learned over the past 20 years of occupation, or did they receive foreign logistical support? Maybe a combination of both.

It's hard to believe that Afghanistan today is the same country that used to be a main destination on the Hippie Trail.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The Taliban seems so well organized compared to what it used to be. Is this something they have learned over the past 20 years of occupation, or did they receive foreign logistical support? Maybe a combination of both.

The Taliban receives assistance from Pakistan's ISI. They've shown some strategic acumen, but their success has more to do with several other factors. Namely: corruption in the Afghan National Army (ANA); total disconnect between Kabul and battlefield commanders; lack of American air support; and the deep political divide in Kabul itself. There really isn't much worth fighting for if you're a common grunt in the ANA.

In parallel, the Taliban had been secretly reaching out for months, through tribal connections and family ties, offering a deal: don’t fight us and you will be spared.

************
US now sending 5000 troops.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1426635329595924482

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Probably an unfair comment.

Hang another predicable L on the US politicians is a better statement.

There is no doubt in my mind that if the Military was able to wage the war they wanted the result would have been different, of course that would also be dependant upon the public’s acceptance of bodybags coming home at a greater rate.

The US generals must field a lot of the blame because they were the ones BSing the politicians. These guys were architects of failure - with goals of the next promotion and a board seat at Lockheed Martin.

But General Miller could do a muscle up. General Mcchrystal woke early to run. General Mattis read books. General Petraeus could do pushups and talk about tribes. And all the other BS we’ve been fed for years that distracted us from the schittshow fantasies on the ground.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Coalition did a lot of good but it was obvious that it would all be erased the moment they left.

Shame, but also, anyone that assisted the coalition is a target , we need to get those people out of there. Make them Canadian citizens

If they had been willing to put the kind of reconstruction effort in like they did in South Korea, or Japan, things would probably have turned out differently.

[8 Ball]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

If they had been willing to put the kind of reconstruction effort in like they did in South Korea, or Japan, things would probably have turned out differently.

I think they tried but failed. Japan had a educated population along with Korea. Different situations IMO

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Probably an unfair comment.

Hang another predicable L on the US politicians is a better statement.

There is no doubt in my mind that if the Military was able to wage the war they wanted the result would have been different, of course that would also be dependant upon the public’s acceptance of bodybags coming home at a greater rate.

The only war that would have worked was one where the military killed hundreds of thousands of Afghans, demolished every church and reacted to any resistance with nazi like brutality, killing the whole village for the one IED, and that would only work with a permanent presence in country, it does nothing to 'grow democracy' though.

The nature of the country and the Taliban means no military solution can 'defeat' them as they just go back to their villages or across the mountains to Pakistan and wait you out, the military did defeat the Taliban, they took the country, the Taliban faded into the population and waited until we got bored

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by 8 Ball

I think they tried but failed. Japan had a educated population along with Korea. Different situations IMO

Japan had an Emperor who the Japanese revered as a God who told them that they had lost and that he wanted them to cooperate with the Americans, it was as if Mohamed had told the Taliban they needed to disarm and do as they were told, and they have also stayed in Korea permanently

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

If they had been willing to put the kind of reconstruction effort in like they did in South Korea, or Japan, things would probably have turned out differently.

Um the reconstruction effort and efforts were attempted, 24 billion in economic aid, more the 50 billion in construction.



The argument above is good, you had buy in with South Korea and Japan after the war and a completely different focus by those governments to basically bury their past and move into a more modern form of government. In Afghanistan you never had competent or ethical government, and you had constant infighting between war lords and regional governments, and a lot of that money was frittered away.



The only way this would have worked properly is to not allow self governance in Afghanistan, but to install a government who's sole job was not only managing reconstruction, but also staying there with a large military force and trying to drag the region forward a few hundred years.



But the Taliban as fanatical, and hateful and crazy as they are, knew the allies wouldn't have the guts for a 50 year in country exclusion and they waited and intimidate.


Now we're going back to seeing woman and children executed brutally probably by the thousands as the Taliban enacts religious reform.

[8 Ball]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Japan had an Emperor who the Japanese revered as a God who told them that they had lost and that he wanted them to cooperate with the Americans, it was as if Mohamed had told the Taliban they needed to disarm and do as they were told, and they have also stayed in Korea permanently

Agreed. There is a pretty good documentary on BBC prime about the Japanese indoctrination leading up to WW II.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1426737819905662978

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

Officials from the city of Gardez reportedly wanted to surrender but CIA-trained paramilitary forces have taken control instead.

It is confirmed that Gardez (Paktia province) fell today.

The Taliban have reached the police station in Jalalabad. The political leadership in Jalalabad negotiated a surrender with the Taliban However, an ANA unit refused to surrender and retreated to Kabul. All roads to Kabul are now cut-off. The only exit is the airport.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1426723223572516872



Taliban control 22 provinces and 25 capitals. Ten capitals, including the country's second largest city, fell to the Taliban over the course of 24 hours.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1426862933175308292

[KootenayFlamesFan]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1426862092427087872

[KootenayFlamesFan]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1426909754186739720