The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by New Era

National service is a fantastic idea. It would give the youth of the nation some idea of responsibility and working for a greater good instead of being the obnoxious self-centered goobers so many of them are today.

Ok boomer.

And no, it doesn’t mean the poor end up in the military and the rich skate by. There are all sorts of interests that both can do that would apply. The most important thing is working for the common good, and getting perspective of what it is like for others in this country we share.

This is such a perfectly empty platitude that it could have come from Pete himself.

[CaptainCrunch]

Biden is pretty much done, he just doesn't have the good sense to drop out.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

I actually have come around to the staunch belief that Bernie is going to be the next President. He'll get out the young people and progressives in the swing states enough to carry them. Polls show he's the strongest Democratic candidate in those states that matter.

What a crazy time. Orange goblin followed by 60s era socialist (if I'm right). At least one is a really good person, even if some of his ideas are a bit whack.

I wish I could share your optimism, I have a vision of Bernie on stage with Trump trying to sell his plan with facts, statistics and a reasoned argument while Trump insults and berates him, the average voter will think Trump looks strong and a leader while Bernie looks like a confused old man, Trump will win with another thin lead.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I wish I could share your optimism, I have a vision of Bernie on stage with Trump trying to sell his plan with facts, statistics and a reasoned argument while Trump insults and berates him, the average voter will think Trump looks strong and a leader while Bernie looks like a confused old man, Trump will win with another thin lead.

Bernie is not nearly as boring as you think he is. He's got a very sharp wit and would humiliate Trump on a debate stage. I have no idea if he can win states like Florida and Ohio to beat Trump, but if he loses it won't be due to lack of personality

[Ark2]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I wish I could share your optimism, I have a delusion of Bernie on stage with Trump trying to sell his plan with facts, statistics and a reasoned argument

fixed that for ya

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Biden is pretty much done, he just doesn't have the good sense to drop out.

I think he will in a reasonable amount of time. Going into last week, he was still polling pretty well overall. He has just never been too strong in Iowa or NH. I think if his showing is underwhelming again tomorrow and his general poll numbers free fall, that it won't be too long he stays.

(I guess I could see a scenario where he stays in for a while so he can continue to take the heat from Trump and keep the light off of others a bit longer, maybe)

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Bernie is not nearly as boring as you think he is. He's got a very sharp wit and would humiliate Trump on a debate stage. I have no idea if he can win states like Florida and Ohio to beat Trump, but if he loses it won't be due to lack of personality

Trump doesn't debate, he berates, I have watched Bernie for the last 2 cycles and he is neither quick on his feet or funny, he's not stupid but he isn't really much of a public speaker, there isn't a chance he would humiliate Trump as Trump doesn't play the game that way, Bernie is utterly wedded to selling ideas that most neither really understand or care about, Trump sells himself

[powderjunkie]

Pretty sure everyone in the state of Kansas is happy right now, even if they are sick or in jail, because their team just won the superbowl.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Trump doesn't debate, he berates, I have watched Bernie for the last 2 cycles and he is neither quick on his feet or funny, he's not stupid but he isn't really much of a public speaker, there isn't a chance he would humiliate Trump as Trump doesn't play the game that way, Bernie is utterly wedded to selling ideas that most neither really understand or care about, Trump sells himself

Plus Trump would dominate him physically. Big tall bombastic New York billionaire with (fake) hair vs diminutive, wispy white haired Vermont crunchy granola socialist. Bernie even got bullied by Elizabeth Warren, he could only respond with incoherent babble to her charge of calling her a liar on TV and the mics weren't even live to the audience. That guy is your champion to stand up to Trump? Maybe you'd have a Nixon v JFK situation where the people who only hear on the radio would think Bernie won but most people who watch on TV are going to come away with the impression that Bernie is weak.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The debates are kinda irrelevant with Trump. It was universally viewed that Trump lost all of them and came off as a creep several times, but it didn't matter obviously.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The debates are kinda irrelevant with Trump. It was universally viewed that Trump lost all of them and came off as a creep several times, but it didn't matter obviously.

Because you don't need to watch debates or even read political platforms to be able to vote. Be 18 years of age and over, and have US citizenship. You can vote.

Put on a red hat, have a catchy slogan that all Americans can relate to, and that is all the debating needed.




I can bet you Trump will make a new red hat this election stating "Keep America Great!", and the rest will fall in place. Debates are for losers, America is the best ever under Trump.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by dobbles

I think he will in a reasonable amount of time. Going into last week, he was still polling pretty well overall. He has just never been too strong in Iowa or NH. I think if his showing is underwhelming again tomorrow and his general poll numbers free fall, that it won't be too long he stays.

(I guess I could see a scenario where he stays in for a while so he can continue to take the heat from Trump and keep the light off of others a bit longer, maybe)

South Carolina is where Biden has his so-called "firewall" due to his support with African-Americans. If he doesn't run away with South Carolina he knows he's in big trouble.

[Bunk]

If he places 4th or 5th in NH, and worse than 2nd in Nevada, he'll continue to drop nationally and probably in SC, as his whole narrative around electability against Trump disintegrates if he can't even beat dem rivals in any elections. I'd say he muddles along to SC, but doesn't win there and drops out the next day.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

I honestly believe the only path the Democrats have is hoping the economy tanks. Gay/Leftist/whatever identity aside, if the American economy continues at this pace come November I simply cannot see people voting to take a risk by voting social over economy.

Remember first time Obama won we just entered the Great Recession. Republicans were in charge for 8 years and fairly blamed. When Clinton won we were in a recession.

I still firmly believe America votes on economy over anything else. So Dems better hope for a crippling recession soon.

So we're all on Team Coronavirus then?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I would think that he has to stick around until ST at least, no? Just to preserve some kingmaking capacity even if he doesn't win?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The debates are kinda irrelevant with Trump. It was universally viewed that Trump lost all of them and came off as a creep several times, but it didn't matter obviously.

I don't think they are totally irrelevant, as there are a lot of people who didn't like Trump in the debates last time, and then eventually decided they couldn't stomach voting for Hillary either and chose to simply not vote. Reinforcing that Trump is still unqualified and uninformed (despite being the incumbent) is important. The people who voted for Trump despite his awful debates will mostly still vote for him, but it's the 2016 non-voters you need to reach during the debate.

I'm concerned there's too many ways that someone can talk themselves out of voting for Bernie and simply not vote. I think he can win, but he makes it tougher than it needs to be. I don't think Warren has a chance right now based on the polling (unless Biden drops out before Super Tuesday, which would really open things up), but I think she would have fairly easily captured pretty-much everyone who voted for Clinton, some Trump voters who were drawn in by the outsider populist message and now see him as a supporter of 'swamp' politics, and a lot of people who didn't vote and regretted it, plus the majority of young, first-time-eligible voters. There will be some moderates who won't be able to buy into the most progressive candidate possible in Sanders, but would have bought into 'progressive, but not as progressive as Sanders'.

[PsYcNeT]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1226963301143326725

Is there a stronger word than "Fremdschämen" for this?

[FlameOn]

Biden is a joke and a tainted candidate at this point. Too many optics issues, too many avenues for attack by the GOP Senators/Ukrane issues, which the MAGA crowd and the non-political Joe six pack is going to latch onto.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The easiest way to run against Bernie is "he's openly anti-business at a time where the economy is strong". I think Bernie's only real shot is the economy collapsing, but if it doesn't and he's a nominee, I suspect it ends even more lopsided than when Hillary lost. Truth be told the DNC should be begging Michelle to get in, no doubt she wins in a walk. But the Dems have only losers I think. Pete might be their best shot now amazingly enough.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The easiest way to run against Bernie is "he's openly anti-business at a time where the economy is strong". I think Bernie's only real shot is the economy collapsing, but if it doesn't and he's a nominee, I suspect it ends even more lopsided than when Hillary lost. Truth be told the DNC should be begging Michelle to get in, no doubt she wins in a walk. But the Dems have only losers I think. Pete might be their best shot now amazingly enough.

Chances are extremely high (>70%) that this will happen in the next 6 months. Multiple studies including the recent MIT one have basically been point to this to happen at any point now.
https://www.etftrends.com/core-etf-c...next-6-months/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/70pe...eet-finds.html

I suspect the GOP knows this and are trying to delay the recession till after the election. Sanders doesn't look that bad among the other candidates... I'd personally prefer Yang's stances, but he doesn't really have a shot.

I don't understand the hate for Sanders from Americans when most of his ideas are very mainstream in Canada. Given the massive tax cuts the rich have received during Trump, as well as this new 8% proposed cut to education, do Americans think a reversal of these policies be so terribly bad under Sanders?