PC Leadership Race Predictions

[RedHot25]

A bit of clarity as to who is already out. All of the below I have read have said no:

-Dave Hancock - Long-time Edmonton Tory won't run in leadership race following Alison Redford's resignation
Hancock said he didn’t think he was the best long-term choice for a party that says it wants to turn over a new page. “If we’re going to show the party as moving forward, I’m probably not the guy who epitomizes that.” http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03...s-resignation/

-Gary Marr - Former AB cabinet minister Gary Mar tells #cbc , he's not going to dive into the leadership race this time #yeg

-Doug Griffiths -Others were ruling out a run at the top spot: service Alberta Minister Doug Griffiths, who ran in the 2011 leadership race that Redford won, said he isn’t interested in doing that again. He said he has family considerations that need his attention. http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03...s-resignation/

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Rathji

If the PCs elect a leader who can't win in Calgary against a growing WRP base, then they don't stand a chance. For example, someone from Edmonton with even a slight left lean and it is game over for the PC party. They pick a fiscal conservative, and/or someone with a strong base in Calgary and they might stand a chance.

I agree somewhat. Calgary is going to be interesting though because there seemed to be an indication last time out that people were moving Wildrose or Liberal, depending on which way they leaned. The PC's still had strong support overall, of course, but if they continue to slide, there is definitely a higher probability of three-way toss-ups in Calgary than I think everywhere else.

[I-Hate-Hulse]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Jim Prentice would be interesting. It could steal a lot of support from the Wildrose, a lot of whom are involved with the Federal Conservative party.

LOL, Prentice is a Sr EVP at CIBC. Why the hell would he give up a high paying job at one of the largest Canadian corporations wielding considerable influence to take a job in lunch pail politics where a $45,000 flight is scandulous. $45K is probably his lunch budget for a few months.

This is why we get crap candidates in politics for the most part - the qualified, educated, an experienced stay in the private sector. They're smart enough to do so. The few that do it out of some altruistic reason are ground into the pavement by silly politics and pettiness.

[calgarywinning]

Originally Posted by Bunk

What I mean is - no matter who becomes leader, are the PCs still just DOA in the next election?

Personally, I think they'll need an outsider to have any chance of resurrecting themselves. But I'm not sure even that will stave off the collapse of the dynasty.

It's funny, because sometimes leadership can make all the difference. Wouldn't you say that the mayor has provided his mandate, his style of leadership that i separate from the mostly incumbent council? Even if certain people dislike it.

What happens in this type of leadership changeover is a total house cleaning and new people come into power positions, whether or not the incumbents survive.

So leadership is an important issue unless you fumble it badly, and you are not a good leader.

[Tinordi]

Conservatives are the center party that occupies any polity.

They move as the center moves and have progressively become more liberal over the last 30 years as Alberta's urban centers have become more liberal due to a growing economy that has brought in immigrants and out of province Canadians which has changed the cities into more cosmopolitan centers.

The Wild Rose is a reaction to that change in an almost definitionally conservative response, resisting the change underfoot and restoring the roots and traditional values of a conservative heartland.

That median voter, the one right on the center is still a "conservative" in their stated identity but their actual preferences are much more discombobulated. There's a deep cognitive dissonance in this voter that speaks to the appeal of and the success of modern conservative political slogans. That movement has ratcheted down support for taxation by inflinchingly and persistently repeating the ideology that any new taxes are bad and that we're already over taxed. This has been the true and lasting success of conservative political ideology over the past 30 years.

The concept of paying for government services with taxes is just not in the politics. So any government whether Wild Rose or Conservative faces almost an existential problem with voters based on this dilemma. We're growing older, we want more services and we don't want to pay for them and we don't want you to go into deficit to pay for them. How exactly the WRP connect the dots will remain to be seen. They'll most likely continue to construct straw dogs and boogey men just as the Harper Conservatives have to explain why they were never able to implement their agenda. Civil servants, unions, the oil market, welfare bums will all be trotted out in some form or another, a slab of red meat to a base that only wants to hear those excuses is frankly good enough.

Meanwhile the median voters will continue to sit by. They're likely baby boomers that have grown comfortable with the welfare state but is uncomfortable paying for the benefits that they don't enjoy. They listen to and agree vigorously with the concept of only paying for as much as you can afford and have been coddled from a self interested perspective to believe that paying money to the commons is a waste.

Whatever happens in the next election will be simply more continuations of this very tenuous line that modern political jurisdictions are wrestling with.

[darklord700]

Ken Hughes is now the first one in the leadership race. For a person who couldn't even win his riding's nomination in 2012, him winning will continue PC's decline. Wildrose could breath a sigh of relief with him at the PC helm.

[SebC]

Is politics the only profession where you stop doing your job in order to apply for a promotion?

[Jacks]

Might as well bump this now that Prentice appears to be running, no point in discussing it in the Redford thread. If he does run it won't be much of a contest.

If he runs I think that pretty much kills any thoughts he had of being PM one day. He would miss the window to run for leader when Harper steps down in the next 2-4 years. I actually thought he would make a good federal leader.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by SebC

Is politics the only profession where you stop doing your job in order to apply for a promotion?

Here you go. SebC and I agree on something for a change.

[The Goon]

I think Prentice is running because he figures PMSH isn't leaving any time soon.