[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by dino7c

It hasn't worked for the first half of their careers but it will totally work in the 2nd half with much higher salaries
Really time will tell...lets wait and see I guess

You can continue to be smug but in a relatively short amount of time I bet the Oilers are wishing they went another direction here. Chicago without the cups is what to me seems like the most likely outcome.

They made it to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals .

It is still there best chance to win

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's impossible to guess what might be on the table in a hypothetical Draisaitl trade, but it would eclipse the Tkachuk / Eichel values for sure.

If I had to guess what potential pieces could have been available in a trade I could have seen something like.

New York: Chytil, Kakko, Lafreniere, K.Miller, Schneider

Carolina: Jarvis, Necas, Kotkaniemi, Nikishin

New Jersey: Mercer, Nemec, Hischier

Buffalo: Power, Byram, Benson, Peterka,

Los Angeles: Byfield, Clarke, Lafferiere, Kaliyev,

Could you have gotten 2 of those "win now" pieces and additional picks/prospects from these teams...I could see it.

Not a lot of star D in those lists ……

And downgrade on forwards . And most likely makes the team worse the next 2 years which is all they care about because you need McDavid to stay

Im also not sure how much ++ you’re getting with Laf or Byfield - but those are prob the two team Drais would be willing to resign with .

So you downgrade short term for long term (hopefully) success by making those trades . But oh wait - there’s a guy named McDavid only signed for the next 2 years !

If you trade Drais you are effectively losing McDavid and starting over .

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Not a lot of star D in those lists ……

And downgrade on forwards . And most likely makes the team worse the next 2 years which is all they care about because you need McDavid to stay

If you trade Drais you are effectively losing McDavid and starting over .

This is it. I get some love the potential of players on those lists and long term they would be great adds, but why does McDavid care about that? They sell and waste another year of his career, he's gone.

What team sells when they are a threat to win? None would actually throw it away and none would with a player as good as Leon. You can't blame the Oilers for keeping him, just blame them for failing to get it done before he gets the raise and laugh at the situation they will be in once the raise kicks in. It's all the other crap around these 2 that has gone wrong.

I was on the trade Leon bandwagon for years as the best way to fix the Oilers...they waited too long and now they were stuck. No way they trade Leon and improve in less than a year.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Here are the top 10 scorers of all time, and the number of seasons they hit 100 points, after turning 30:

Gretzky: 4
Jagr: 1
Messier: 1
Howe: 1
Francis: 2
Dionne: 3
Lemieux: 1
Sakic: 2
Crosby: 1

but 'Flames fan' InternationalVillager is here to tell us uneducated fans that McDavid and Draisaitl are both going to "average 100 points over the next 10 years", which would make them the first two players in NHL history to do it - seems reasonable!

These historical numbers are meaningless.

The game has completely changed in the post lockout era + especially these last few years. Look at how much scoring is up.

It's a powerplay happy league now and that's the way the NHL wants it. Oilers are also converting at historical levels on the powerplay and that is directly as a result of McDavid, Draisaitl and now Bouchard.

As long as those 3 are round, that powerplay is going to convert at relatively high levels and is hardly impacted as much by age.

Unless you think their even strength scoring is going to slow down by 50% or so- they're goint to hit ~100 points.

For those that think that Draisaitl barely hit 100 points last year, I would say he underperformed last year. He only had 39 PPP last year vs 62 PPP the year prior. He wasn't shooting as much and his ice time was actually the lowest since the 2018-19 season.

But yes- like I said right at the top. Keep throwing out useless historical figures to state your case when the league has completely changed.

And for the 1000th time, I don't really care how the Oilers do - I'm just telling you this meltdown of these two players isn't happening. I'm sticking to that analysis and projection as long as the league remains an offensive minded league wanting scoring to be higher and powerplay rates remain consistent.

They will be the outliers. Oh boy- either way this will make a very bump friendly post in the future.

[InternationalVillager]

Also- Nikita Kucherov just dropped 144 points in his Age 30 season.

You think he is magically going to fall off a cliff because he is Age 31 this season?

NHL record books are going to be re-written in this upcoming decade starting with Ovechkin surpassing Gretzky's career goal total.

10 years from today- you will look back with hindsight and see how much the comparative numbers have changed for top players between Age 31-40.

Nathan Mackinnon is also another player that will be part of this "new" trend of NHL scoring for elite players. He just turned 29.

So I am not saying this is exclusive to just Draisaitl and McDavid. This is going to be the NEW NEW.

[dino7c]

This all hinges on this season...I mean some of you are talking like McDavid deal is done. If they have an early exit (probably the most likely scenario) Why does he stay again? Next offseason they will be shedding salary. You don't think McDavid sees the writing on the wall. If McDavid leaves you are stuck with an overpaid Drai. Even if he stays you have the privilege of paying over 30M to two players that haven't got it done.

Some of you will be shocked on how quickly this turns. Sure you can say they went to game 7 of the finals...they also had incredible forture that is unlikely to repeat.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

These historical numbers are meaningless.

The game has completely changed in the post lockout era + especially these last few years. Look at how much scoring is up.

It's a powerplay happy league now and that's the way the NHL wants it. Oilers are also converting at historical levels on the powerplay and that is directly as a result of McDavid, Draisaitl and now Bouchard.

As long as those 3 are round, that powerplay is going to convert at relatively high levels and is hardly impacted as much by age.

Unless you think their even strength scoring is going to slow down by 50% or so- they're goint to hit ~100 points.

For those that think that Draisaitl barely hit 100 points last year, I would say he underperformed last year. He only had 39 PPP last year vs 62 PPP the year prior. He wasn't shooting as much and his ice time was actually the lowest since the 2018-19 season.

But yes- like I said right at the top. Keep throwing out useless historical figures to state your case when the league has completely changed.

And for the 1000th time, I don't really care how the Oilers do - I'm just telling you this meltdown of these two players isn't happening. I'm sticking to that analysis and projection as long as the league remains an offensive minded league wanting scoring to be higher and powerplay rates remain consistent.

They will be the outliers. Oh boy- either way this will make a very bump friendly post in the future.

Drai isn't averaging 100 points the next 10 seasons...I get your Oiler bias but this is just ridiculous

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Also- Nikita Kucherov just dropped 144 points in his Age 30 season.

You think he is magically going to fall off a cliff because he is Age 31 this season?

NHL record books are going to be re-written in this upcoming decade starting with Ovechkin surpassing Gretzky's career goal total.

10 years from today- you will look back with hindsight and see how much the comparative numbers have changed for top players between Age 31-40.

Kuch is a shifty player and extremely smart. He passes extremely quickly and tends to avoid contact. He's a much better player than Draisaitl. But he too will drop off at some point in the not distant future.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Kuch is a shifty player and extremely smart. He passes extremely quickly and tends to avoid contact. He's a much better player than Draisaitl. But he too will drop off at some point in the not distant future.

I don't know what the definition of "drop off" is.

But ATLEAST for the next 5 years, Kucherov will be a continuous threat for 100 points as long as Point, Guentzel and Hedman are around.

This is the new NHL. It's all about the powerplay.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

I don't know what the definition of "drop off" is.

But ATLEAST for the next 5 years, Kucherov will be a continuous threat for 100 points.

This is the new NHL.

I mean he is 31 and gotten 100+ points 4 times in his career. I don't think you grasp how unlikely your statements are

Drai is not averaging 100 points a year for the next decade

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I mean he is 31 and gotten 100+ points 4 times in his career. I don't think you grasp how unlikely your statements are

I know math = hard.

He's been 100+ points/GP pace for the last 6 years.

Nice try to cherry pick though.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

I know math = hard.

He's been 100+ points/GP pace for the last 6 years.

Nice try to cherry pick though.

Its not cherry pick...YOU are the one saying Drai will average 100+ points per year. He won't. Him being old and injury prone doesn't give you an out either...that is kinda the point. According you you Oiler homers he nearly dies and plays with one leg every playoffs. Guy has a lot of miles on him already.

If its a shortened season or something you can use points/GP but not if its injuries from being older

[InternationalVillager]

If you ignore Draisaitl's rookie year.

He has averaged ~101-102 points pace for his career.

What changed? What allowed him to take the next step?

Look no further than PP% of his total point share.

If you continue to get something like 35-50 points per season on the powerplay. Getting/maintaining 100 point pace becomes a straight-forward exercise.

Game's changed. If your team has an elite powerplay - you will make the playoffs at the minimum. Powerplay driven league produces Powerplay driven statistics. More elite skillset players = scoring higher for longer.

This is why Zayne Parekh is going to be a legend.

This is why Cale Makar is so damn good.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

If you ignore Draisaitl's rookie year.

He has averaged ~101-102 points pace for his career.

What changed? What allowed him to take the next step?

Look no further than PP% of his total point share.

If you continue to get something like 35-50 points per season on the powerplay. Getting/maintaining 100 point pace becomes a straight-forward exercise.

Game's changed. If your team has an elite powerplay - you will make the playoffs at the minimum. Powerplay driven league produces Powerplay driven statistics. More elite skillset players = scoring higher for longer.

you are already using * and can barely get him over 100 points for the first half of his career. GL with the 2nd half.

If I actually thought you would be around CP after this all blows up in the Oilers face I would bet you haha.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

I know math = hard.

He's been 100+ points/GP pace for the last 6 years.

Nice try to cherry pick though.

That's kinda the point - he's WAY better than Draisaitl and doesn't rely on a power game at all. And aside from the surgery year has been incredibly durable for a smaller guy.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Also- Nikita Kucherov just dropped 144 points in his Age 30 season.

You think he is magically going to fall off a cliff because he is Age 31 this season?

NHL record books are going to be re-written in this upcoming decade starting with Ovechkin surpassing Gretzky's career goal total.

10 years from today- you will look back with hindsight and see how much the comparative numbers have changed for top players between Age 31-40.

Nathan Mackinnon is also another player that will be part of this "new" trend of NHL scoring for elite players. He just turned 29.

So I am not saying this is exclusive to just Draisaitl and McDavid. This is going to be the NEW NEW.

LoL. Father time remains undefeated. You can't outrun the body deteriorating, hand eye diminishing, general health etc whether you are relying on PP points or not.

As the game speeds up and so does skill and scoring, so to does the prime age of elite players. You can't have your cake and eat it too. Drysaddle will break like everyone else and break hard when he does. Whether it is at 31, 32 or 33 he is going to fall back at some point sooner than later.

[dino7c]

At some point he won't be able to handle the ridiculous minutes...entire power plays, double shifting, ect. In fact you are already seeing him start break down late season every year. Last 3 playoffs he has looked visibly injured by the end of their run.

There is fair, more than fair debate that this was the best option for the Oilers and I welcome the back and forth but saying things like "he will average 100 points a season for the next decade" is beyond ridiculous and deserves major push back.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

If you ignore Draisaitl's rookie year.

He has averaged ~101-102 points pace for his career.

What changed? What allowed him to take the next step?

Look no further than PP% of his total point share.

If you continue to get something like 35-50 points per season on the powerplay. Getting/maintaining 100 point pace becomes a straight-forward exercise.

I wonder about that Oilers PP...maybe I'm being optimistic but I think at some point it will get figured out.

At 5v5 I think there is an argument that Drai's production has already peaked and over the last 2 seasons he's become more dependent on McDavid for keeping that production above 0.60 P/GP as his with or without you splits have taken a hit.

17-18: 0.55 P/GP; 6:23 w/97
18-19: 0.72 P/GP; 10:19 w/97
19-20: 0.79 P/GP ; 8:38 w/97
20-21: 0.71 P/GP; 6:07 w/97
21-22: 0.68 P/GP ; 3:42 w/97
22-23: 0.64 P /GP; 5:51 w/97
23-24: 0.68 P/GP; 6:08 w/97

The PP has helped mask that for sure but in reality 22/23 was probably a bit of an outlier with that team having the best PP season ever.

17-18: 0.14 P/GP
18-19: 0.35 P/GP
19-20: 0.63 P/GP
20-21: 0.59 P/GP
21-22: 0.52 P/GP
22-23: 0.78 P /GP
23-24: 0.49 P/GP

Now if he can put up about a 0.5 P /GP PP pace, and a 0.68 5V5 pace then he's still going to be in that 1.18 P/GP pace that puts him more in that 95-99 point range.

But that's also expecting no further decline, which is destined to happen, especially at 5v5 production.

Maybe his production see's no decline, especially if they shift him back to McDavid's wing full time and hope the two of them can outscore the rest of the roster's problems. But then the problem becomes that you're paying him $14M to be 97's sidekick.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

And for the 1000th time, I don't really care how the Oilers do

Clearly

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

They made it to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals .

It is still there best chance to win

Recency bias summed up pretty well.