The Lion King is going to be outrageously big. I do a box office pool at work and everyone is underestimating it aside from me. Like, really? You guys know they did the same thing with Jungle Book which has maybe 10% the popularity The Lion King does and it made almost $400M. Beauty and the Beast made $500M and isn't as popular as The Lion King. And it's the last big summer release of the year, mid-July, it could own the box office for three months. It's going to be BIG.
The Lion King looks amazing. This could easily beat all the other live action films.
I just do not understand the motivation to release 2 other live action films within 6 months of the Lion King though. I don't think that Dumbo or Aladdin will interfere with the Lion King's success though.
TIL there is such thing as a box office pool, and that there are places people work that enough people care about it to actually participate. People will bet on anytime, it seems.
Yeah there seems to be a lot of people on CP that are FLABBERGASTED anyone would care about how much money something makes any time box office comes up.
Then they jump back into Fire on Ice to debate about hockey contracts and attendance and team valuations.
Really the teaser didn't look bad outside of the Genie. And that probably will still be huge internationally in other markets and think it will still do well domestically as long as the full trailer looks good.
People had the same concerns about Beauty and the Beast when the first teaser trailer for that movie came out...it did $1.2B worldwide.
Yeah looking at it more closely and $8B is probably conservative for Disney this year.
As you mentioned Toy Story, Aladdin, and Lion King will be a licence to print money due to nostalgia and them being some of the most popular Disney franchises ever. Even Dumbo which I am concerned by the release date could overachieve because of the trailer looking really good, and Tim Burton having a pretty good following.
Plus I actually didn't realize how well Alice in Wonderland, Beauty and the Beast, Maleficent and Jungle Book live action movies had performed either, for some reason thought they were a disappointment but they all did at least $800M worldwide.
If Dumbo, Lion King, and Aladdin can perform to expectations of the previous live action remakes then Disney probably has a shot at $10B worldwide box office for movies released in 2019.
Looking at the closest proxy for each movie that's releasing this year:
Captain Marvel > Ant Man & Wasp - $700M
Dumbo > Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland - $1000M
Avengers > Infinity War - $2000M
Aladdin > Beauty & The Beast - $1200M
Toy Story 4 > Toy Story 3 - $1100M
Lion King > Beauty and the Beast - $1200M
Artemis Fowl > Tomorrowland - $200M
Frozen 2 > Frozen - $1300M
Star Wars 9 > Last Jedi - $1300M
That's $10B right there and those totals probably aren't that aggressive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube
Yeah there seems to be a lot of people on CP that are FLABBERGASTED anyone would care about how much money something makes any time box office comes up.
Then they jump back into Fire on Ice to debate about hockey contracts and attendance and team valuations.
Look...I hate the Box Office BS because its a flawed metric to determine the quality of movies. A movie that made a lot of money isnt necessarily any good. Spiderman 3 You know it. I see you reading this.
But that list of Disney films? They'd have to try really hard to screw those up.
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Yeah there seems to be a lot of people on CP that are FLABBERGASTED anyone would care about how much money something makes any time box office comes up.
Then they jump back into Fire on Ice to debate about hockey contracts and attendance and team valuations.
Right, but CP is a concentration of people with those interests. It has self-selected for that. I don't doubt you could find an internet forum to chat and bet on box office revenues as well, I'm just shocked there are enough people in an office to do it.
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This didn't seem to give away much, which is about right for a teaser trailer. I eventually saw Frozen and enjoyed it, I'll probably eventually see Frozen 2 as well - maybe with a less of a wait.
The Lion King looks amazing. This could easily beat all the other live action films.
I just do not understand the motivation to release 2 other live action films within 6 months of the Lion King though. I don't think that Dumbo or Aladdin will interfere with the Lion King's success though.
Dumbo looks really good. I think I made a comment earlier, but that trailer had me cutting onions. i showed my wife and she started bawling.
I think Disney will love their 2019, but resent the return on Aladdin...
As for Will Smith's Aladdin...yikes, that looks bad. Way to crap all over Robin Williams' legacy. I've said this before, but I think Jim Carrey is probably the only guy who could have done this movie justice.
TIL there is such thing as a box office pool, and that there are places people work that enough people care about it to actually participate. People will bet on anytime, it seems.
