[CP Story] Stat Hack: Is David Rittich the Flames Weakness?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

As bad as it is to say, the goalie I'd target is Talbot. It's hard to play for a team like Edmonton. Imagine him playing behind an nhl level defense.

I don't think that is bad at all. Judging goalies in Edmonton is drought with all sorts of unavoidable handicaps, and Talbot was good enough even while playing in that tire fire to get consideration for the Vezina. I think he would be cheap, and the potential dividends would be huge.

[Hoop27]

Originally Posted by Hoop27

Then I'll throw something together for you to read today/tonight DeluxeMustache. Wish I could just strap on my gear and show it in photos but you know stroke, left side buggered, etc.

Sorry for the delay. Nap time is important


So this is going to explain some goaltending theory and you'll have to visualize it in your head as I can't show you myself but it should make sense..


What I have seen in the past year or so is Flames goaltenders 'lunging' at pucks coming in low, and the idea is the same as a goaltender challenging the shooter. You want to put as much of you further ahead as possible to close the distance between your body and the shooter.


This idea really got popular a few years back with the increase in size of the upper body piece and the pants. Or the 'core' area of the body. (This will be important) I even tried it myself as I was a bit of a mad scientist when it came to goaltending and I would try any idea that looked like it could help. Now I'm the same size as Smith and played very much the same style. (Especially handling the puck) So I started to experiment with the idea of lunging at lower to mid height shots for that reason.


The problem is and this is a bit of a goalie secret, but when a shot comes at you from 30-60 feet you are not generally making a reaction save when it's coming in at you at 90-100mph. What you are doing is reading the puck coming off the stick and from that data you visually see your brain makes the calculation of where the shot is going and you go into whatever position you need to make a stop instinctually. For most goaltenders anything that requires less than about 2/10 of a second will be a positional save, or a instinct save. Which is why a deflection is so problematic. You have already begun moving to the spot you think you need to be.


What lunging did was increase the amount of you that was in the way when you got your arms down lower. We're all good! At least in theory. I believe this is something being pushed by the goaltender coach as I noticed Smith start really doing this early in the year and Rittich doing it a LOT more in the past 8 weeks.


The problem comes in that you don't think about is that when you thrust out your upper body down a bit more the 'core' of your body moves backwards to compensate. You can do this sitting in a chair by thrusting forward and low (please don't hurt yourself!) and you will feel your core slide back to compensate.


It doesn't move back much but that along with the tighter fitting equipment opens up cracks at the pant and stomach area.They aren't very big but it doesn't take much when a puck is moving that fast to squeeze through. If you think of a lot of the bad goals they seem to be going in at that part of the body.


Another problem is when you are wound up to push forward like that your blocker hand will just inch forward a little bit changing the 'levelness' of your stick at the five hole along the ice so pucks have a tiny little area to squeeze through even though you could swear you were in perfect butterfly position.


In doing this I was running into the exact same problems Smith was having with shots squeezing through in a spot you could swear is covered, and if the shot changed directions (especially down) it was game over. To compensate you would try and get even lower in the lunge, and it may hit you but on the rebound you end up on your stomach way too easily, and then again you're screwed.


Even Rittich is having this happen to him a bit more recently which leads me to believe this technique adjustment is coming from a coach.


The solution for me was to go back to a slightly more traditional style of letting the puck come to me staying a little more upright in the butterfly or kicking out a pad which I suppose in theory leaves a fraction more room on the sides, but my glove should compensate for that on the left, on the right well there is that perfect shot that can go just over the pad and under the blocker. If he makes that shot with traffic all over him you just have to tip your cap to him assuming it goes fast enough where I don't have that 2/10 of a second to adjust a little more.


I also gave up a couple more pad rebounds (nothing too dramatic) but because I was more upright I would be able to make that rebound stretch save a little easier because I was balanced.


In conclusion (sorry it was so long winded) I believe the lunging style has caused more problems because it just isn't traditionally natural. I also don't teach it when I work with kids especially because of the balance issues and shots around the core issues it caused. I have to think Sigalet is pushing this as he is the right age to have experimented with it and he may be one of those insane athletic freaks that can keep his balance while moving his core. Most goalies I've played with and coached just can't.


I think this style issue can be fixed for both guys and hopefully will, but everyone has a different read on goaltending and one size does not fit all but this is what I am seeing. I hope it made some sense.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ thanks, appreciate you sharing. I was wondering if you were going to bring up the lunging forward.

When some people have been talking here about the room over a goalie’s shoulder, I have tried to share with them considering not what you can see on TV, but if the puck had eyes, what it would see.

I was thinking maybe Sigalet was teaching them to push forward, glove at least, with the intent to take away the vertical angle in close. Lots of people on CP have commented on the frequent resulting belly flops with Smith, and that would make sense.

For me, on occasion I will try to push the glove forward when a guy is set up in front and has a shot he may tip. Only a bit though so as not to screw up the balance.

[Hoop27]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ thanks, appreciate you sharing. I was wondering if you were going to bring up the lunging forward.

When some people have been talking here about the room over a goalie’s shoulder, I have tried to share with them considering not what you can see on TV, but if the puck had eyes, what it would see. I assumed Sigalet was teaching them to push forward, glove at least, with the intent to take away the vertical angle in close.

For me, on occasion I will try to push the glove forward when a guy is set up in front and has a shot he may tip. Only a bit though so as not to screw up the balance.

Yup. That's correct. In tight you're fine closing distance like you said. It's that shot from 40 feet out which is driving me nutty.

[red '00]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

His last ten games he's gone:

10 GP

4W, 4L, 2 OTL, 0.899 SV% and a 3.16 GAA.

Edit:

I lied, those are Pekka Rinne's stats. Last year's Vezina winner.

BSD:

10 GP

7W, 2OTL, 1ND, 0.904 SV%, 2.89 GAA.

People need to chill out and put things in context. Take what we have so far this year and be thankful. Without Rittich, this team is on the bubble, or outside looking in, instead of fighting for top spot in the West and an outside shot at the President's trophy.

Love the Rinne stats tossed out there for some perspective, haha.


I completely agree with you here. The "sky is falling" attitude towards goaltending the last little while has been extreme. Even listening to so called experts discuss the situation has been frustrating.


I'm far more supportive of the idea that we stick with Rittich, but we need to grab another option behind him in case he goes into another slump or needs some rest.


It's Smith who makes me uneasy as far as goaltending goes... Rittich got us here, he's slumping a bit but should bounce back, the question is: why can't we rely on our back-up when our starter is having a rough patch? Why haven't we been able to truly rely on Smith all season? If he's going to step it up and prove to the fans and his teammates he holds some value, it would be now while Dave finds his game again. All goalies go through slumps, it's a good back-ups job to fill in well when they happen.


People should lay off the Rittich criticism, take a deep breath, and ask themselves why the team is losing when their young goaltender is having a bit of a bad stretch to his otherwise fairly remarkable standards so far this year. Where is our veteran back-up who was supposed to be the starter? Why can't the rest of the team step it up? Rittich is not the weakness.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think he's likely not as good as his all world stats before Christmas, and not as bad as his stats since the team came back.

Before Xmas Break
.923 in 20 appearances - top ten starter

After Xmas Break
.896 in 14 appearances - bottom tier backup

We do have to keep in mind that nearly every goalie goes through spurts where it doesn't go their way during season.

Lehner - 887 save percentage in November
Andersen - 903 save percentage in December
Murray - 850 save percentage in November
Price - 886 save percentage in November
Gibson - 822 save percentage so far in February
Rask 904 save percentage in December
Hellybuck - 900 save percentage in November
Rinne has been around .900 each month since December

There are some guys who have been consistent - Bishop, Vasilevskiy month to month, but for the most part goalies go hot and cold.

If Rittich stays in the tank for a couple of more weeks then I will worry.

Those stats above are true - but if you put the same table one week earlier - Rittich would be at a .910 save percentage since the Christmas break.

He's tanked three games in a row which have crushed his stats (dropped 7 points in save percentage) - you can then use small sample sizes to show he's been below average for a month when he was fine for a month and then had 3 bad games in a row.

[manwiches]

Wasn't sure where to post this, but is anybody listening to Round Table right now?

Derek and Ryan going OFF on each other regarding Rittich/Smith.

Like borderline uncomfortable. lol

Derek calling Ryan out, by saying Ryan poops all over Smith every time they talk. Give him a chance, be more open minded.

Ryan not backing down either.

Derek sounds like he's in a crabby mood though too. haha

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by manwiches

Wasn't sure where to post this, but is anybody listening to Round Table right now?

Derek and Ryan going OFF on each other regarding Rittich/Smith.

Like borderline uncomfortable. lol

Derek calling Ryan out, by saying Ryan poops all over Smith every time they talk. Give him a chance, be more open minded.

Ryan not backing down either.

Derek sounds like he's in a crabby mood though too. haha

That was hilarious.

I tend to agree with Wills about Pinder's own bias against Smith, but both of them are ridiculous. Wills seems to go out of his own way to make appear as though Smith has been better than he has played, while Pinder likewise is eager to forgive Rittich for most of his errors.

Towards the end there Wills sounded like he might be on the verge of tears. I really get the sense that these two just simply do not like each other.

[transplant99]

Putting this here as well as the other thread cause it spurns fireworks.

Since November 25th

Rittich 12-3 2.99 GAA .901 save%

Smith 11-4 2.73 GAA .905 save%

[GreenLantern2814]

Since the radio thread is probably not the best place to hijack the goalie debate, I'll leave something as well.

34 GP 20-5-5 with a 2.66 GAA and a .911 save percentage.

vs

34 GP 15-9-3 2.60 GAA and a .912 save percentage.

1st is Rittich right now, and the 2nd guy is Karri Ramo in 2014-15.

Rittich is more Ramo than Kipper, which is still decent, yet not enough.

We all hoped Rittich was the answer. Maybe he still is. But from where I'm sitting, the main issue facing the Flames, as has been the case for six years, is still in the crease. Resources should be devoted to shoring that up; you won't find a 10-year starter at the deadline, so don't try. But in the summer, get a goalie you can put in for 55 starts a year in ink.

[Kipper_3434]

Originally Posted by Hoop27

Sorry for the delay. Nap time is important


So this is going to explain some goaltending theory and you'll have to visualize it in your head as I can't show you myself but it should make sense..


What I have seen in the past year or so is Flames goaltenders 'lunging' at pucks coming in low, and the idea is the same as a goaltender challenging the shooter. You want to put as much of you further ahead as possible to close the distance between your body and the shooter.


This idea really got popular a few years back with the increase in size of the upper body piece and the pants. Or the 'core' area of the body. (This will be important) I even tried it myself as I was a bit of a mad scientist when it came to goaltending and I would try any idea that looked like it could help. Now I'm the same size as Smith and played very much the same style. (Especially handling the puck) So I started to experiment with the idea of lunging at lower to mid height shots for that reason.


The problem is and this is a bit of a goalie secret, but when a shot comes at you from 30-60 feet you are not generally making a reaction save when it's coming in at you at 90-100mph. What you are doing is reading the puck coming off the stick and from that data you visually see your brain makes the calculation of where the shot is going and you go into whatever position you need to make a stop instinctually. For most goaltenders anything that requires less than about 2/10 of a second will be a positional save, or a instinct save. Which is why a deflection is so problematic. You have already begun moving to the spot you think you need to be.


What lunging did was increase the amount of you that was in the way when you got your arms down lower. We're all good! At least in theory. I believe this is something being pushed by the goaltender coach as I noticed Smith start really doing this early in the year and Rittich doing it a LOT more in the past 8 weeks.


The problem comes in that you don't think about is that when you thrust out your upper body down a bit more the 'core' of your body moves backwards to compensate. You can do this sitting in a chair by thrusting forward and low (please don't hurt yourself!) and you will feel your core slide back to compensate.


It doesn't move back much but that along with the tighter fitting equipment opens up cracks at the pant and stomach area.They aren't very big but it doesn't take much when a puck is moving that fast to squeeze through. If you think of a lot of the bad goals they seem to be going in at that part of the body.


Another problem is when you are wound up to push forward like that your blocker hand will just inch forward a little bit changing the 'levelness' of your stick at the five hole along the ice so pucks have a tiny little area to squeeze through even though you could swear you were in perfect butterfly position.


In doing this I was running into the exact same problems Smith was having with shots squeezing through in a spot you could swear is covered, and if the shot changed directions (especially down) it was game over. To compensate you would try and get even lower in the lunge, and it may hit you but on the rebound you end up on your stomach way too easily, and then again you're screwed.


Even Rittich is having this happen to him a bit more recently which leads me to believe this technique adjustment is coming from a coach.


The solution for me was to go back to a slightly more traditional style of letting the puck come to me staying a little more upright in the butterfly or kicking out a pad which I suppose in theory leaves a fraction more room on the sides, but my glove should compensate for that on the left, on the right well there is that perfect shot that can go just over the pad and under the blocker. If he makes that shot with traffic all over him you just have to tip your cap to him assuming it goes fast enough where I don't have that 2/10 of a second to adjust a little more.


I also gave up a couple more pad rebounds (nothing too dramatic) but because I was more upright I would be able to make that rebound stretch save a little easier because I was balanced.


In conclusion (sorry it was so long winded) I believe the lunging style has caused more problems because it just isn't traditionally natural. I also don't teach it when I work with kids especially because of the balance issues and shots around the core issues it caused. I have to think Sigalet is pushing this as he is the right age to have experimented with it and he may be one of those insane athletic freaks that can keep his balance while moving his core. Most goalies I've played with and coached just can't.


I think this style issue can be fixed for both guys and hopefully will, but everyone has a different read on goaltending and one size does not fit all but this is what I am seeing. I hope it made some sense.

Was also a goalie and was also taught to use the lunge technique. What I found was pretty much the same issues. It just feels awkward too. An upright butterfly and a good stance with your legs "charged" and weight balanced on the balls of the feet works way way way better in my experience and it isn't even close.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Putting this here as well as the other thread cause it spurns fireworks.

Since November 25th

Rittich 12-3 2.99 GAA .901 save%

Smith 11-4 2.73 GAA .905 save%

So Tampa tonight once again scored 5, for the sixth time in their last 7, and 27th time in 61 games. That’s 44 percent of the time. (And scored 4 another 11 times.) That is deadly. TB much more often than not scores 4+.

In fact, they only scored 5+ in 5 of their first 20. So if you buy the narrative that a team is settling in for the first 20, they have scored 5+ over 50 percent of the time since then. That is simply nuts.

(For comparisons sake, Arizona has scored 5 goals 8 times in 60. Calgary 19 times in 59)

Rittich in 31 starts has let in more than 4 goals a total of 5 times.
Twice in regulation: 5 vs SJ and 6 vs TB.
The other three times, he has let in the 4th goal in OT.

Smith has let in 4 or more 11 times in 28 starts (3 of his last 5, 5 of his last 10)

I’m glad the team is getting Smith starts and that he is winning. There are stats you can pick that tell the story in different ways.

I know Wills and Hrudey are pulling for Smitty. I kind of like when he is in guys’ faces, he has some fire left in him.

The are still a lot of games to go. They are working on getting Smith comfortable. I’m intrigued.

[Itse]

Thanks and props Hoop27 for the analysis.

It's reaffirming for me personally, as even though I've mostly tried to steer away from the goalie discussion lately, there's been a growing voice in my head saying "Rittich looks technically worse than before". I didn't want to talk about it because all I could have said was "I think there might be something wrong with his coaching lately, because his balance looks off and that doesn't seem like something that's part of the normal ebbs and flows". Would have sounded ridiculous coming from me.

So yeah.

We really might have to get back to the discussion of "how about we give another goalie coach a chance"?

And no, I don't really want to have that discussion, because most of us fans can't really say much anything of value about it.

Except the basic fact that goalies under him generally seem much more likely to regress than improve. With Rittichs good start to the season being possibly the only real exception so far?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Since the radio thread is probably not the best place to hijack the goalie debate, I'll leave something as well.

34 GP 20-5-5 with a 2.66 GAA and a .911 save percentage.

vs

34 GP 15-9-3 2.60 GAA and a .912 save percentage.

1st is Rittich right now, and the 2nd guy is Karri Ramo in 2014-15.

Rittich is more Ramo than Kipper, which is still decent, yet not enough.

We all hoped Rittich was the answer. Maybe he still is. But from where I'm sitting, the main issue facing the Flames, as has been the case for six years, is still in the crease. Resources should be devoted to shoring that up; you won't find a 10-year starter at the deadline, so don't try. But in the summer, get a goalie you can put in for 55 starts a year in ink.

Different league now.

14-15 - average save percentage = 915, average GAA 2.52
18-19 - average save percentage = 908, average GAA 2.86

Ramo was below the averages, Rittich is above.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Putting this here as well as the other thread cause it spurns fireworks.

Since November 25th

Rittich 12-3 2.99 GAA .901 save%

Smith 11-4 2.73 GAA .905 save%

As mentioned - this is all driven by Rittich's last three games and then using small sample sizes so they have a big enough impact.

Its possible Rittich has permanetly cooled off or its possible he just had a bad week.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Putting this here as well as the other thread cause it spurns fireworks.

Since November 25th

Rittich 12-3 2.99 GAA .901 save%

Smith 11-4 2.73 GAA .905 save%

Those stats don't tell the whole story though. Rittich's quality of competition has been vastly more difficult mostly due to Smith's untrustworthy play. He was getting a lot of easy starts as a result which padded his stats whereas Rittich has seen the Tampa Bay's and San Jose's of the world which has resulted in poorer numbers.

Outside of those games, I actually haven't had an issue with Rittich's game. To Smith's credit, this is is a solid stretch he's had, but we need to see more games like the Florida start last week where he looked like an absolute wall. The leaky 6 and 7 hole goals also needs to be tested and passed before I'd say I'm 100% confident in Smith.

[Itse]

When comparing stats from previous years, you have to remember that scoring is up this year and sv% are down.

So the same sv% now actually implies a better goalie.