[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Off the top of my head, I'm having a hard time thinking of a team that won a trade where they traded the best player in the deal in an attempt to improve team culture.

Colorado Avalanche, Matt Duchene, 2017.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by AC

This is the epitome of advanced stats guys who must not actually watch the games. His conclusions seem lazy frankly.

Implied in his calculation is the argument that coaching has no impact on success.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

None of the advanced stats bloggers were going to like the Flames off-season.

They all love Hamilton, see him as at worst a top 20 d-man in the league. Plus they seem to be down on Hanifin because he was a bit sheltered last season - forgetting that he's only 21 and came into the league at 18.

Don't think it means they are not credible, just that the advanced stats community as a whole really loved Dougie Hamilton.

Pretty good assessment. A lot of these same people believed the Flames results were a fluke as their advanced stats should have yielded a better record.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Off the top of my head, I'm having a hard time thinking of a team that won a trade where they traded the best player in the deal in an attempt to improve team culture. Usually the team seeking "intangibles" and "desire to win" comes out on the losing end.

Normally I would agree with you and to be honest when I first heard of the trade I hated it.

But the reality is that we traded for a 21 year old and a 23 year old who are both high picks with a number of successful seasons already.

We opened our window to win a lot wider with the move and should be a better overall team this upcoming season over last.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Off the top of my head, I'm having a hard time thinking of a team that won a trade where they traded the best player in the deal in an attempt to improve team culture. Usually the team seeking "intangibles" and "desire to win" comes out on the losing end.

Off the top of my head...

Bobby Ryan to the Sens.
Evander Kane to the Sabres.
Duchene to the Sens.
Drouin the Habs.

Going way back... Lindros to the Flyers.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

Off the top of my head...

Bobby Ryan to the Sens.
Evander Kane to the Sabres.
Duchene to the Sens.
Drouin the Habs.

Going way back... Lindros to the Flyers.

And going way, way, waaaaay back, Kent Nilsson to the North Stars.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

Off the top of my head...

Bobby Ryan to the Sens.
Evander Kane to the Sabres.
Duchene to the Sens.
Drouin the Habs.

Going way back... Lindros to the Flyers.

Bobby Ryan is a good example but wasn't traded because the Ducks wanted a culture change. Likewise, the Lightning didn't trade Drouin because they needed players who wanted to win more...they more wanted to take advantage of Bergevin making horrible deals.

Kane qualifies but there were lots of big names in that trade and not too sure either side came out way ahead. Duchene is a good example though - mainly caused the Sens crapped out badly once they made the trade.

[GreenLantern2814]

Carter for Voracek was a pretty big win for the Flyers.

Ultimately, Calgary traded Dougie for the same reason Nashville is going to trade Subban. It's too much money on the back end, especially when the organizational strength of your team is defense (allegedly).

If you can get similar production from Gio-Brodie (and history suggests you can), you have turned a guy who is more than worth $5.75M (who might not be worth it at $8 or $9M - another debate) into a skilled top-6 forward who'll be with you for six more years AND a 22 year old defenseman with 3 seasons of NHL hockey under his belt.

And all of this is done with a negligible impact on the cap.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Bobby Ryan is a good example but wasn't traded because the Ducks wanted a culture change. Likewise, the Lightning didn't trade Drouin because they needed players who wanted to win more...they more wanted to take advantage of Bergevin making horrible deals.

Kane qualifies but there were lots of big names in that trade and not too sure either side came out way ahead. Duchene is a good example though - mainly caused the Sens crapped out badly once they made the trade.

Drouin wanted out. I think he qualifies.

Kane trade was a win for the Jets. Getting Myers is a win. And Kane was traded in spite of his talent. He was a cancer in the room, very well documented.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Carter for Voracek was a pretty big win for the Flyers.

Ultimately, Calgary traded Dougie for the same reason Nashville is going to trade Subban. It's too much money on the back end, especially when the organizational strength of your team is defense (allegedly).

If you can get similar production from Gio-Brodie (and history suggests you can), you have turned a guy who is more than worth $5.75M (who might not be worth it at $8 or $9M - another debate) into a skilled top-6 forward who'll be with you for six more years AND a 22 year old defenseman with 3 seasons of NHL hockey under his belt.

And all of this is done with a negligible impact on the cap.

Carter was for Voracek AND Couturier. I didn't include that one because at the time the deal looked bad for the Flyers. It was a win in the long run, but it took some time.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Carter for Voracek was a pretty big win for the Flyers.

Ultimately, Calgary traded Dougie for the same reason Nashville is going to trade Subban. It's too much money on the back end, especially when the organizational strength of your team is defense (allegedly)...

Except that the Nashville Predators are very good at everything, and for that reason I highly doubt they are in a hurry to trade away their top scoring defenseman.

I agree with your assessment of Hamilton, but don't see how that has anything to do with what is happening in Nashville.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Off the top of my head, I'm having a hard time thinking of a team that won a trade where they traded the best player in the deal in an attempt to improve team culture. Usually the team seeking "intangibles" and "desire to win" comes out on the losing end.

Lots of examples given already to refute your point, but I don't think the entire - or primary - reason to trade Hamilton was culture change.

Too many penalties, lazy in his own zone, too many defensive turnovers, leaving the heavy lifting to Giordano...

IMO, the return more than warranted what we moved out, just for results on the ice, the structure of the team, and the future potential. We don't need to add the culture change narrative to justify the trade.

[Flash Walken]

Colour me as someone who was just never that impressed with Hamilton

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Lots of examples given already to refute your point, but I don't think the entire - or primary - reason to trade Hamilton was culture change.

Too many penalties, lazy in his own zone, too many defensive turnovers, leaving the heavy lifting to Giordano...

IMO, the return more than warranted what we moved out, just for results on the ice, the structure of the team, and the future potential. We don't need to add the culture change narrative to justify the trade.

One metric that contradicts some of what you're saying is goals above replacement (GAR) (https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...-sprigings-nhl), which tries to take into account contextual factors such as the level of teammates one plays with and the level of competition.

GAR says Hamilton was the Flames best defenceman in 2017-2018. League-wide, he was 99th percentile for overall play, 99th percentile for 5v5 offence, 92nd percentile for 5v5 defence and 82nd percentile for the power play. However, GAR does say he struggles in terms of taking penalties (9th percentile) and drawing penalties (26th percentile).

I think a pretty good comparable for Hamilton is Seth Jones. In 2017-2018, Jones was better on the power play and much better in terms of taking penalties and drawing penalties while Hamilton was better at 5v5 offence and 5v5 defence.

If you look back to 2015-16 and 2016-17, Hamilton was 80th percentile and 95th percentile for overall play, while Jones was 84th percentile and 79th percentile for overall play.

Over three seasons Hamilton and Jones are neck and neck in terms of overall play.

I think in evaluating the trade it is important to understand the kind of player the Flames gave up. They gave up a monster.

On the positive side of things, GAR says Hanifin is a great young defenceman. In 2017-18, he was 79th percentile for overall play, 86th percentile for 5v5 offence and 32nd percentile for 5v5 defence. This is similar to what Hamilton and Jones were in 2015-2016. It'll be interesting to see if Hanifin grows to become a dominant player like those two. I think the potential is there.

[Vinny01]

The Hamilton trade is going to be debated likely for a long time.

At the end of the day the Flames gave up a players that were
1- 3 years away from UFA
2- 1 year away from UFA
3- 2 years away from UFA

They acquired 2 RFA’s and signed one to a 6 year deal already and will either go long term or bridge the other.

I think the Flames taking a step back last year had Treliving subtlety pumping the brakes opposed to putting his foot on the gas last summer. He gave up the best player but this player also was 2 years away from being extension eligible and he is certainly on pace for a $8-10M per deal. The Flames acquired Dougie after surprisingly winning a round in the playoffs but haven’t won a playoff game since halfway through his contract. Now they get a younger Dman and likely are not faced paying one of their own players $10M per season until Johnny is up.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Lots of examples given already to refute your point, but I don't think the entire - or primary - reason to trade Hamilton was culture change.

Too many penalties, lazy in his own zone, too many defensive turnovers, leaving the heavy lifting to Giordano...

IMO, the return more than warranted what we moved out, just for results on the ice, the structure of the team, and the future potential. We don't need to add the culture change narrative to justify the trade.

This ...

There are issues for sure. If a guy skips the team exit meetings there's a problem and it's not just being an odd duck.

But this off season was always about trading a defenseman for a forward, and Hamilton was my pick from the beginning and not because I didn't like the player, or that I came even close to predicting the return. He had value, and they were top heavy on the blueline. Trading Giordano was unlikely, and I don't think Hamonic, Stone or even Brodie were going to alter the forward core that much.

Getting two young core pieces for another core piece that wasn't quite fitting in is a good trade. Made especially true with Fox refusing to come to Calgary and potentially refusing to sign anywhere until he comes out of school a UFA

[Calgary4LIfe]

The way I saw the Flames the last few seasons was a defense-heavy team that absolutely NEEDED the defence to contribute to the score-sheet more than most teams.


Now this team is a more traditionally balanced team, with the bonus that Hanifin + a possible resurgence by Brodie may replace all that was lost in terms of Hamilton's offensive contributions, not even including Giordano who I think will focus more on his two-way game again.


It was infuriating that Gulutzan didn't see this with the team composition. Now the Flames are rather flush with goal scoring/play making ability up front without taking too much of a hit on the back-end.



I don't think this team will miss Hamilton. I like Brodie more on the top pairing as I feel he is much more dynamic, with the caveat being that he regains some of his confidence. I do think that Hanifin is a bigger downgrade TODAY than most are giving credit for, BUT there is a good bet to be made that Hanifin will grow his game immensely in the next couple of seasons.


This is one of those articles that you just want to bookmark for future reference (i.e. giggles). I really think it is rather lazy articles like these contribute to negative feelings towards the analytics community as a whole. There are lots of really good insights to be gained, and many writers actually put forth an honest effort and really enlighten us, then there are others who are lazy, seemingly look only at the numbers and not the whole picture, and make too bold of proclamations.


I, for one, look forward to a lot more goals scored from this team, and I bet the defence contribute more as a while than they did last season too, based on systems change alone.



Oh, and Giordano continues to be criminally underrated. If anyone watches the Flames play, I don't see how you can come up with the assertion that Hamilton was the Flames best defensmen. It is Giordano by a mile.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Pretty good assessment. A lot of these same people believed the Flames results were a fluke as their advanced stats should have yielded a better record.

And that's the brilliance of fancy stats. They can use them to say, almost at the same time, that a team should both be better than it was or worse than it was, depending on what narrative they want to push.

[Bingo]

I honestly think you guys have a way too Machiavellian sense of advanced stats. They're literally just counting events that should bring more clarity to a game that has traditionally not gone much beyond shots on goals to determine anything beyond the final score of the game.

Models like Manny's or Dom's in this case go one step further in that they attempt to weight certain factors in order to come up with the equivelancy of WAR in baseball. When weighting comes into it it's a different thing as they will come under attack for the choices they make in their models.

Sure it's possible that a model maker could just change his parameters because his favourite team doesn't look good under his assumptions, but that wouldn't last long against a look from the masses.

[FlamesAddiction]

I am not even sure Hamilton will be the best player involved in the trade within a few years. This is one of those ones that will have to be evaluated once we see the pieces develop. All the players involved are relatively young and possibly have their best ahead of them (Hamilton included, even though he is the oldest and closest to revealing what his top form will be).