Poland is NATO so I sure hope Russia doesn't invade. Despite their military incompetency, they still posses the ability to launch nukes on major western centers, including N America. An an invasion of a NATO country will surely lead to nuke strikes.
I learned 2 things that stuck out in my mind when I lived in Poland recently:
1 - Living under a crazy Jesus government is absolute insanity and very cartoon-like
2 - Poland is 100% ready to destroy any Orcs that come waddling through uninvited
I'm not a military strategist or all that thoroughly knowledgeable about the military state of all European countries, but the only mistake bigger than invading Poland would be invading Germany.
And if Russia were to invade Poland a number of things would happen, but most likely it would be kicking off World War 3.
Unless the Poles decided to say something like: "Hey NATO, no worries, you boys can sit this one out on the Bench to avoid escalation. We got this."
Based on their performance in Ukraine, Poland would take Russia out behind the woodshed and whoop it like a disobedient child.
__________________ The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!
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I was just making a quip that this conflict would not last long considering how Russia is faring against Ukraine.
That being said, NATO would be defending Poland rather than attacking Russia. This should not be a surprise for Russia, if they did attack. Also, if they were to launch nukes at all members, that is it for us. Means they had a death wish.
If NATO attacked Russia, you can bet they would launch nukes on Berlin, London, Paris, NYC etc. If that isn't a World War than I don't know what is.
Best if Russia just didn't invade Poland and we didn't have to think of these things.
Is Russia even capable of attempting to invade Poland? They seem pretty maxed out in the Ukraine. They're going to need many years to replenish their troops and equipment to even make it across the border.
Invading Poland also would not be like invading south eastern Ukraine, where you have a large pro Russian population already. It's going to take far more standing army to pacify any single Polish city.
Is Russia even capable of attempting to invade Poland? They seem pretty maxed out in the Ukraine. They're going to need many years to replenish their troops and equipment to even make it across the border.
Invading Poland also would not be like invading south eastern Ukraine, where you have a large pro Russian population already. It's going to take far more standing army to pacify any single Polish city.
No, you don't. There was no "large pro-Russian population" in Ukraine, which is one of the reasons why the initial attack was such a complete failure. Maybe in 2014 this might have been the case, back when the legitimacy of the Kiev government was genuinely under question, but since then Russia has beem very successful in making clear to Ukrainians that even a crappy Kiev government is better than anything Moscow does.
The biggest city in South Eastern Ukraine is (was?) Mariupol and they certainly didn't make Russians feel welcome.
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No, you don't. There was no "large pro-Russian population" in Ukraine, which is one of the reasons why the initial attack was such a complete failure. Maybe in 2014 this might have been the case, back when the legitimacy of the Kiev government was genuinely under question, but since then Russia has beem very successful in making clear to Ukrainians that even a crappy Kiev government is better than anything Moscow does.
The biggest city in South Eastern Ukraine is (was?) Mariupol and they certainly didn't make Russians feel welcome.
Oh I don’t agree with the matter of fact of this from my deep understand of Ukraine history … I have taken an interest in recently ha (ie I don’t have a deep understanding)
Anyway when mayors of major cities like Odessa and smaller places like Kherson were pro Russian before Feb 2022 (or at least the internet told me that) I think there was a lot more pro Russian views in Ukraine post 2014 then you think
Crazy how all we've been taught is that USSR/Russia have done nothing but build up arms stockpiles since 1945 in anticipation of another land war in Europe against a Superpower + allies.
Yet here they are getting their asses whooped by a single country and its NOT named China or the USA.
I wonder how badly a middle power country like Iran could whip their ass if they felt inclined?
Russia did build up a huge stockpile of weapons.... In 1945. Over the last thirty years, not so much.
No, you don't. There was no "large pro-Russian population" in Ukraine, which is one of the reasons why the initial attack was such a complete failure. Maybe in 2014 this might have been the case, back when the legitimacy of the Kiev government was genuinely under question, but since then Russia has beem very successful in making clear to Ukrainians that even a crappy Kiev government is better than anything Moscow does.
The biggest city in South Eastern Ukraine is (was?) Mariupol and they certainly didn't make Russians feel welcome.
I'm more referring to the invasions of the Crimea and parts of the Dondas. There definitely was a fair bit of pro Russian sentiment in those areas, with many people being ethnically Russian. Russia also already had a military presence in the eastern Ukraine before this latest conflict started.
MH17 war criminal and Novorossiya diehard Igor Girkin/Strelkov was reportedly detained by Russian authorities crossing into Ukraine. Perhaps all his doom posting and crapping on RuAF and Shoigu finally caught up with him.
Another super informative video from Perun on the state of the Ukrainian army, with some comparisons to Russian forces.
There was a really interesting line in there claiming that the US is already training Ukrainian pilots for US jets.
It's uncharacteristically for Perun a very throwaway line, but obviously the implications are significant, and he doesn't strike me as a guy that would drop something like that without knowing what he's talking about.
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Yeah I don’t know how you don’t consider an entire nation worth of people having to commit fraud to get credit card access a pretty dire situation.
It's not fraud. It's perfectly legal to own a card issued by another country. I had Wells Fargo card issued in USA about 7 years ago. It's not like sanctions deny Russian citizens to use foreign cards either.
I don't notice him saying Russia is about to collapse, only that Russia should be starting to "feel that seriously". Unless I'm mistaken?
That's roughly in line with many other predictions, and fairly uncontroversial.
There was always going to be a lag between the sanctions coming into effect and those effects showing up in people's lives.
I was referring to his quote below and so far it's not happening. While there seems to be a consensus among the west that Russia will feel effects of sanctions at some point, that point does not seem to be by late August or September. It also could be that western experts are just telling western people that sanctions hurt Russia badly because this is what the west wants to hear.
Quote:
The economic situation is deteriorating and we will begin feeling that seriously by late August or September. It’s a gradual process. One company closes, people have to look for new jobs, then another closes, and so on. Certain goods are disappearing, but not everything
Last edited by Pointman; 08-15-2022 at 01:03 AM.
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The Russian economy shrank 4% this quarter according to the Russian Central bank. Expectations were 10% down, so those expectations were beat.
The Russian Central bank expects further contraction next year.
That's not collapse, but 4yrs of progress have been deleted. Also commodities are inelastic in the short term, over longer periods sources of commodities can be replaced and demand destruction occurs.
The IEA is also estimating Russian oil production will begin to fall without access to western tech/expertise.
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