Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

I get they clearly dislike Tesla but $90 is just goofy, so low it makes them seem worse than the stock they're trying to discredit

Is it? It would put the valuation back down in the realm of reality. I'm not sure you can blame them for the irrationality being displayed in the markets right now.

[Azure]

No doubt.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1460632550406246403

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Is it? It would put the valuation back down in the realm of reality.

Which reality is this? Actual, or one you imagine it should be?

I'm not sure you can blame them for the irrationality being displayed in the markets right now.

Of course you can blame them, their job is to predict market realities. They came up with a price based on wish fulfillment, the same general sentiment we see in this thread over and over. Go back and read this thread from the beginning there are some spicy hot takes.

So now we have TSLA, RIVN and LCID and others all vastly outpacing legacy auto in valuation. Not fair? I think it is, look at the growth of Tesla vs. for example Toyota. The market expectation is projected onto other EV makers, yes some will fail but overall electric vehicles are one of the biggest (or maybe biggest) industry disruptions ever.

I've been saying this for years.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

Which reality is this? Actual, or one you imagine it should be?

Of course you can blame them, their job is to predict market realities. They came up with a price based on wish fulfillment, the same general sentiment we see in this thread over and over. Go back and read this thread from the beginning there are some spicy hot takes.

So now we have TSLA, RIVN and LCID and others all vastly outpacing legacy auto in valuation. Not fair? I think it is, look at the growth of Tesla vs. for example Toyota. The market expectation is projected onto other EV makers, yes some will fail but overall electric vehicles are one of the biggest (or maybe biggest) industry disruptions ever.

I've been saying this for years.

Does this make logical sense to you? Will Tesla just overtake every other automaker on the planet while they all implode? Or do you think maybe they will manage to adapt and retain some market share? These are massive, massive businesses we are talking about here. There is no logic in the current valuation. I'd buy some of the future value arguments, but not to this scale.





But ya, everything is just where it should be. The markets are incredibly irrational right now. They will correct one day.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Does this make logical sense to you? Will Tesla just overtake every other automaker on the planet while they all implode? Or do you think maybe they will manage to adapt and retain some market share?

I've made my thoughts on this crystal clear, what do you think will happen?

There is no logic in the current valuation.

There is, you just refuse to accept it.

But ya, everything is just where it should be. The markets are incredibly irrational right now. They will correct one day.

Don't stop believin'

BTW, for some odd reason people think TSLA is some out of nowhere growth story, it's not. The stock did nothing for years, at times got a massive haircut.

[Fuzz]

There are no shortage of experts looking at the stock agreeing with my opinion, this is a good read.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/446...ill-overvalued

[Azure]

Even Musk says the stock is too high and is doing his best to get it down.

Not sure why there is an argument here Zamler, and I see upside to the Tesla value as well, but its way too high.

[zamler]

I think TSLA is under valued and we'll look back on the current price and think, wow that was so cheap. Or I could be a raving mad man and be totally wrong.

Originally Posted by Fuzz

There are no shortage of experts looking at the stock agreeing with my opinion, this is a good read.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/446...ill-overvalued

Haha, another one. October 25, if you had listened to them back then you would have sold and lost a whole bunch of money.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

I think TSLA is under valued and we'll look back on the current price and think, wow that was so cheap. Or I could be a raving mad man and be totally wrong.

Haha, another one. October 25, if you had listened to them back then you would have sold and lost a whole bunch of money.

Not that it matters, but if you had sold on the 25th you would have felt really bad when it went to $1233, but you'd be fine with where it is now, because it's essentially the same stock price.

I think the disconnect here is between what it is logically worth based on all real factors used to evaluate share prices, and what it is emotionally worth like Bitcoin. Tesla's stock price is clearly currently based on an emotional reality, not a fundamental one.

Could it go up 10x? Sure, people invest in tulips stocks all the time. There is no shortage of charts climbing at exponential levels, just to collapse back down to reality. There are far far fewer that rise like Tesla's has, and stay there.

[zamler]

Is that your investment strategy? Short the stock because TSLA will come back down to reality?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

Is that your investment strategy? Short the stock because TSLA will come back down to reality?

No, I'm not going to short anything. That would depend on people acting rationally, which they clearly don't.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

No, I'm not going to short anything. That would depend on people acting rationally, which they clearly don't.

Never? Or just with Tesla. So what company and stock do you think accurately reflects reality and will grow going forward based on said reality.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

Never? Or just with Tesla. So what company and stock do you think accurately reflects reality and will grow going forward based on said reality.

No, I don't short. I'm not that sophisticated an investor, and all I know about shorting is it can be incredibly risky.


You want me to list stocks that has a valuation based on reality? Geez, I dunno, Royal Bank? Like I said, there are no shortage of experts who think Tesla's valuation is not based on reality. Rivian just joined that list. Anyway, this conversation isn't going anywhere because we are both just guessing at future stock performance.

[zamler]

I'm not guessing. I came up with my valuation and outlook based on tech, cash on hand, debt, margins, demand etc. if you took the time to look you'd realize Tesla is in a very good place. In 3 years Tesla went from $3 billion cash on hand to $15 billion. Last I checked Tesla's D/E was 2x better than Toyota.

This is all before Texas and Germany have produced a single car.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Does this make logical sense to you? Will Tesla just overtake every other automaker on the planet while they all implode? Or do you think maybe they will manage to adapt and retain some market share? [/IMG]


But ya, everything is just where it should be. The markets are incredibly irrational right now. They will correct one day.

Not disagreeing with you necessarily but I just wanted to point out that Tesla isn't just an automaker. They're an electronic company, and some of their more lucrative ventures are in areas like solar storage as well as their actual EV charging network (which non-Tesla drivers will likely be using heavily in the future via the use of adaptors.)

[ken0042]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

I rented a Tesla Model 3 recently so I'll share my experience

What did the rental company do about charging? Was it like a gas powered car where you had to return it "full" or else pay a high amount?

[Calgary14]

Originally Posted by ken0042

What did the rental company do about charging? Was it like a gas powered car where you had to return it "full" or else pay a high amount?

Neither. It was through Turo, so the owner just asked I charge it overnight. I returned it at about 60% so it wasnt like it was near 0%

[Erick Estrada]

I may get an EV in 2022. I may even get a Tesla but the one thing keeping me away (outside of their laughable build quality and penny pinching lack of features) is being associated with Elon Musk fanboys. I have been a part of Ford forums and dealt with the blue oval lifers, Honda fanboys, Subaru fanboys, ect but I have never in 20+ years of being on numerous automobile forums seen anything like the Elon Musk fanboys. It's by far the most toxic of all automobile fandoms and tarnishes anything good the brand actually accomplishes. There's no reasoning with these people and some of them are so toxic they send death threats to owners of other EV's. They aren't enthusiasts, they are lunatics.

[Hack&Lube]

What I really need is not a primary EV but a small Smart Car EV alternative that is affordable and not a ugly econo box like a Nissan Leaf for 30K. I literally need a golf cart that doesn't look dorky when driving it.

Where are the options for that?

I just need a small EV to save me gas on my commutes to work and shopping inside the city. I'm still going to keep my Diesel SUV for long hauls, people moving, furniture moving, and trips to the mountains.

[Aarongavey]

As someone who owns an EV, I think the problem for gas is once you buy an EV it is hard to imagine going back to gas. The savings you have over 6-8 years means it is a money saving purchase. The convenience of being able to fuel up at home means you rarely have to leave your house to charge up. It would just be hard for me to imagine buying gas again. Not sure what that means for stock valuation, but I do think that gas will be getting a rapidly decreasing market share over the next 5-7 years.