American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

To me it just looks like a bunch of American politicians who probably saw the political points that Pelosi scored at home for her visit and want a bit of the same for themselves. It's an easy win to make themselves look strong, brave, and freedom-loving to their voters while the only people who face any increased chance of negative consequences are the Taiwanese, not likely in terms of war but in terms of some economic retaliation from the country that is still their largest trading partner, and the American politicians don't care what happens to them.

The US does also want to send a message that they're still strong and relevant in the region, which this kind of does and which I guess is the dick swinging aspect of this that makes some giggle and cheer, but at the same time they've just committed $53B to funding onshoring of tech and developing domestic production capacity for semiconductor manufacturing that will compete directly with Taiwanese manufacturing and make Taiwan much less important to them.

It's pretty much Taiwan getting played as a pawn between bigger powers again.

It's also a bit concerning to see such a war-loving country as the US unnecessarily heightening tensions with a global competitor while calling that competitor the provocateur as if seeking a public moral justification for some kind of action against them.

I doubt it. This trip is getting no publicity and no one knows who is there. And Taiwan could easily tell them not to visit right now if they didn't want them to come.

And the reason for the funding of chips act is because of the risk China attacks Taiwan. And I'm sure you know China has blown a bucket loads of money on try to compete with Taiwan and Samsung on chips but failed for the most part.

[Fuzz]

It's not like anyone has to worry about China just unilaterally declaring somewhere under their control, and enforcing draconian rules that strip people of their rights, right? Totally without violence, too. They'd never do that.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

again.

It's also a bit concerning to see such a war-loving country as the US unnecessarily heightening tensions with a global competitor while calling that competitor the provocateur as if seeking a public moral justification for some kind of action against them.

The U.S. isn’t looking for justification for action against China. These moves are clearly a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and they’re intended to signal that just because the U.S. didn’t directly intervene in Ukraine that doesn’t mean they’ll stand by if allies like Taiwan are attacked.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

To me it just looks like a bunch of American politicians who probably saw the political points that Pelosi scored at home for her visit and want a bit of the same for themselves. It's an easy win to make themselves look strong, brave, and freedom-loving to their voters while the only people who face any increased chance of negative consequences are the Taiwanese, not likely in terms of war but in terms of some economic retaliation from the country that is still their largest trading partner, and the American politicians don't care what happens to them.

The US does also want to send a message that they're still strong and relevant in the region, which this kind of does and which I guess is the dick swinging aspect of this that makes some giggle and cheer, but at the same time they've just committed $53B to funding onshoring of tech and developing domestic production capacity for semiconductor manufacturing that will compete directly with Taiwanese manufacturing and make Taiwan much less important to them.

It's pretty much Taiwan getting played as a pawn between bigger powers again.

It's also a bit concerning to see such a war-loving country as the US unnecessarily heightening tensions with a global competitor while calling that competitor the provocateur as if seeking a public moral justification for some kind of action against them.

To me it looks like this-

US - we are sending a top member of congress to Taiwan

China - don’t you dare send anyone or there will be consequences.

Us - too bad

China- nothing consequence

US - oh cool let’s send more since this is what Taiwan now wants

China- better now speak out this time since we are afraid to escalate beyond our last “consequences “ that did nothing.


This trip is making the world laugh at China

[activeStick]

To me, the rah rah for actions that could potentially trigger a conflict that results in the deaths of innocent Taiwanese citizens is not something to laugh about.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by activeStick

To me, the rah rah for actions that could potentially trigger a conflict that results in the deaths of innocent Taiwanese citizens is not something to laugh about.

Taiwan government at least seems quite happy to have them there. I assume if it wasn't viewed popularly in Taiwan they wouldn't be there. Its not like they are forcing themselves on Taiwan.

[Monahammer]

It is naturally pushing China towards a breaking point.

Chinese culture also has a large premium placed on "face" and "shame". In this scenario, The CCP is losing enormous face by not being able to back up their threats or warnings. And shame that they are being shown to be liars about Taiwanese territorial control to their own population. Add this to quite frequent rumors of internal problems on the Chinese mainland (i.e. bank issues in Henan, real estate collapse, COVID lockdowns) and it could add to the CCP facing an enormous security threat internally. The other political intrigue is that this is all happening only months in advance of when Xi is set to confirm his grasp on the CCP and shove himself into a position unrivaled since Mao. October is when this meeting is set to take place. IMO it's no coincidence that these visits are happening RIGHT now.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Taiwan government at least seems quite happy to have them there. I assume if it wasn't viewed popularly in Taiwan they wouldn't be there. Its not like they are forcing themselves on Taiwan.

Taiwan and the citizens prefer status quo over conflict, where status quo would have been no visits at this time. They've been forced into a tough position where congress members are visiting and with Taiwan's close ties to the US, wouldn't be a good look to ask them to not come. As someone mentioned, Taiwan and their people are just being used as pawns for American presence in Asia.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by activeStick

To me, the rah rah for actions that could potentially trigger a conflict that results in the deaths of innocent Taiwanese citizens is not something to laugh about.

The Taiwan government literally publicly said they wanted Nancy there.

This crap that the US should ignore that and not go because they “know better” than Taiwan about what’s good for Taiwan is insulting

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Taiwan and the citizens prefer status quo over conflict, where status quo would have been no visits at this time. They've been forced into a tough position where congress members are visiting and with Taiwan's close ties to the US, wouldn't be a good look to ask them to not come. As someone mentioned, Taiwan and their people are just being used as pawns for American presence in Asia.

Or, crazy thought, the people in charge of Taiwan have the ability to tell America "no" but instead are having meetings with high level officials, like the Taiwanese president. Perhaps they are getting nervous given Chinese past actions, and don't really welcome the idea of going through what Hong Kong just did. Having themselves replaced with mainland toadies.

Is there any actual evidence Taiwan is not happy about these visits? Because if they were, I'd suspect they wouldn't be so open to these meetings...

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Or, crazy thought, the people in charge of Taiwan have the ability to tell America "no" but instead are having meetings with high level officials, like the Taiwanese president. Perhaps they are getting nervous given Chinese past actions, and don't really welcome the idea of going through what Hong Kong just did. Having themselves replaced with mainland toadies.

Is there any actual evidence Taiwan is not happy about these visits? Because if they were, I'd suspect they wouldn't be so open to these meetings...

I agree with your general sentiment, but I think it's more complicated than you're presenting.

As i mentioned above, the culture (shared between China and Taiwan) puts a heavy emphasis on face and shame. Also on honor and hosting. There are pretty complicated relationships at play here, and if the US house of representatives, putatively the representatives of Taiwan's largest military ally are requesting a visit, it's uniquely difficult for the Taiwanese to turn it down. Add to this that the story of them rejecting the visit would play extremely well within China and potentially extremely poorly among the hard anti-mainland portion of the taiwanese population.

Probably, Taiwan is somewhat of a willing pawn here, but it is hard to really know. I do absolutely think that they are being wielded in a larger global power play, but I am not sure it is unwilling.

[GirlySports]

Still it's just the legislative branch so far.
If a member of the executive branch goes, that's going to be big.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by activeStick

To me, the rah rah for actions that could potentially trigger a conflict that results in the deaths of innocent Taiwanese citizens is not something to laugh about.

I tend to think and hope the chances of armed conflict are still probably pretty low, but I totally agree that actions increasing the chance of conflict and needless suffering are not a positive regardless of whether that suffering is via armed conflict or economic measures. This congressional visit itself isn't really a big deal, but the Pelosi one was and following up with this is just continuing to stir the pot in a way that doesn't seem to serve anyone's interests but the Americans in their projection of power in the region, and the people who clearly have the most to lose are the Taiwanese.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by activeStick

To me, the rah rah for actions that could potentially trigger a conflict that results in the deaths of innocent Taiwanese citizens is not something to laugh about.

It is indeed a serious matter, but I think showing weakness is a more likely trigger than showing strength.

[rubecube]

This seems like it's probably not legal.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559241009275486209

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by SebC

It is indeed a serious matter, but I think showing weakness is a more likely trigger than showing strength.

A much more likely trigger is any action that suggests America is changing it's position on the one-China policy. If the US adopts a position that looks very much like they no longer recognize the one-China policy and they view Taiwan as an independent and sovereign nation, that would signal an end to the status-quo, and it would dramatically increase the chances of armed conflict.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

A much more likely trigger is any action that suggests America is changing it's position on the one-China policy. If the US adopts a position that looks very much like they no longer recognize the one-China policy and they view Taiwan as an independent and sovereign nation, that would signal an end to the status-quo, and it would dramatically increase the chances of armed conflict.

Yes, I am somewhat worried that they're backing the Chinese too far into the corner as well. But, we have to trust that this administration wouldn't take these steps without the intel provided by the world's best intelligence services driving every play. Maybe they would! But I don't think they've shown they would so far.

[photon]

Originally Posted by rubecube

This seems like it's probably not legal.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559241009275486209

Manafort admitted to giving polling data to Russians too in an interview recently.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by rubecube

This seems like it's probably not legal.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1559241009275486209

Illegality of this I think remains in question. The article references that Trump won some sort of case that did give him limited access to inspect a machine in a specific county. But, it does seem like the legal team engaged in far broader activities to try and secure additional data. This seems to be what generated the split with Barr, as reported in the article that he thought this was amateurish and that Trump would have to be detached from reality to believe in the findings of the report. Well, Trump went on to use that report as the basis of his crusade against the election very publicly.

Edit: Also, should point out the outrageous irony that of course Trump's team could claim that the voting systems were breached-- They breached them!

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by photon

Manafort admitted to giving polling data to Russians too in an interview recently.

Rudy G now back in the spotlight as well