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Old 09-19-2020, 09:35 AM   #61
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Nice strawman with the bolded part, as it doesn't remotely resemble what I said.

I'm not aware of evidence that people are spending less time watching television or streaming. Ratings for some sports are up. And have you tried buying a bike or fitness equipment this summer? Or been on a golf course.

Here are some stats on the uptick in outdoor activities.

https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/u...-5-activities/

It's not a surprise that US viewers are apathetic towards ice hockey in the summer. It's not due to the very serious issue of depression.
So more people are doing things outside when lots of people are still out of work, absolutely shocking.
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Old 09-19-2020, 10:02 AM   #62
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Yeah, I don't agree that people's mental health is what's making an impact on the ratings. It's more so the combination of the game atmosphere and timing of the year; with the last one being the big one in light of covid. People want to be outside more often rather than stuck indoors watching a sport/matchup they may not be that interested in watching. If anything, apathy is valid for drop in ratings, because many are more focused on being out of the house, and socializing with friends/family when they can.

The fall/winter numbers, when the weather is cooler, and people aren't as incline to be outside as much, will be interesting if/when physical distancing is still mandatory when the new season resumes.

I feel like hockey goes into the summer season too late as it is right now on a regular June ending schedule. So restarting literally right in the middle of the summer season, was already setting the NHL behind in interest.
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Old 09-19-2020, 11:56 AM   #63
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The revenue almost certainly exceeded the expenses for these bubble playoffs; otherwise they wouldn't have done it. If they projected a marginal break-even, they probably wouldn't have done it, since there was always a risk that it failed/shut-down early.


How this works for the upcoming season, I don't know. It seems like a far more marginal and risky proposition, especially with anything resembling a normal travel schedule.
My sense is that these playoffs were played because otherwise big dollars would be paid back to Rogers for not delivering a Stanley cup tournament. So I’m sure taking a loss on the costs to run the bubble was considered a necessity.
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Old 09-19-2020, 12:18 PM   #64
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I think there will be regional bubbles to start the season. Canada will be a regional bubble and you're playing each Canadian team 3 or 4 times in that bubble (a 6 to 8 weeks or so total in the bubble).

That way TV interest will be up so Sportsnet and teams can try and sell advertising based on rivalry team games.

Then they'd hope by early next year they can get fans into buildings as travel and group restrictions eased.

If not able to that yet they'd have to do a bubble format with other regions, again packing games into a two or three week bubble, then leaving a few weeks in between switching bubbles and allow to see family.

Maybe the season is only 55 games or so, playing the other Canadian teams 4x each, then teams in one other regional bubble 4x or so. Then playoffs from there.

The bubble format for Covid safety has been an unqualified success. Sure some isolation grumbling in earlier rounds. So I think in theory they can make it work.

That's all fine for schedule making and to a degree for TV, but for teams that need revenue from suites and seats and local advertising contracts, it doesnt really help economically.

It's going to be pretty ugly.

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Old 09-19-2020, 02:14 PM   #65
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I think there will be regional bubbles to start the season. Canada will be a regional bubble and you're playing each Canadian team 3 or 4 times in that bubble (a 6 to 8 weeks or so total in the bubble).

That way TV interest will be up so Sportsnet and teams can try and sell advertising based on rivalry team games.

Then they'd hope by early next year they can get fans into buildings as travel and group restrictions eased.

If not able to that yet they'd have to do a bubble format with other regions, again packing games into a two or three week bubble, then leaving a few weeks in between switching bubbles and allow to see family.

Maybe the season is only 55 games or so, playing the other Canadian teams 4x each, then teams in one other regional bubble 4x or so. Then playoffs from there.

The bubble format for Covid safety has been an unqualified success. Sure some isolation grumbling in earlier rounds. So I think in theory they can make it work.

That's all fine for schedule making and to a degree for TV, but for teams that need revenue from suites and seats and local advertising contracts, it doesnt really help economically.

It's going to be pretty ugly.
And yet the NHL owners are giving out HUGE contracts that are not justified by any foreseeable increase in revenue.

The cap should be 63M (without Ticket sales revenue) with the players writing off 20% to escrow which they will never get. The actual cap would be closer to 50 M with the players being paid what their contracts call for.

The 81.5 CAP will weed out the weaker franchises... defeating the whole idea of the CAP being good for the overall league.

If the the bulk of the teams spend 75-81 M on salaries we come back to the pre CBA days where the rich owners eat their losses and/or rely on non-hockey revenue to cover them and the Flames, Oilers and Jets will move to a smaller internal cap and sell off their better players in an effort to curtail the losses.

The economic climate in Alberta does not bode well for government support and tax relief.

The TV networks are not going to give a HUGE long term deal for a league in trouble.
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Old 09-19-2020, 03:39 PM   #66
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To me it’s very simple.

They’ve stripped the game of physicality. Thus the passion has been stripped somewhat. Thus it’s boring. Plus having two southern belt teams nobody cares about winning.

The sport itself is really not that interesting to watch anymore. The NHL has basically made it subpar. Like it’s still kinda watchable kinda.... but really only if your team is in it. Agree with the added weight of summer start up.
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Old 09-19-2020, 04:22 PM   #67
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And yet the NHL owners are giving out HUGE contracts that are not justified by any foreseeable increase in revenue.

The cap should be 63M (without Ticket sales revenue) with the players writing off 20% to escrow which they will never get. The actual cap would be closer to 50 M with the players being paid what their contracts call for.

The 81.5 CAP will weed out the weaker franchises... defeating the whole idea of the CAP being good for the overall league.

If the the bulk of the teams spend 75-81 M on salaries we come back to the pre CBA days where the rich owners eat their losses and/or rely on non-hockey revenue to cover them and the Flames, Oilers and Jets will move to a smaller internal cap and sell off their better players in an effort to curtail the losses.

The economic climate in Alberta does not bode well for government support and tax relief.

The TV networks are not going to give a HUGE long term deal for a league in trouble.
The owners agreed to the CBA extension, too. They are paying out more now, but will pay less in the back half of the extension to even out.

A few franchises may be at risk no matter how the parties agreed to proceed. That won't be a surprise to any of them, and I'm sure they're already working to figure it out.


The whole inflating cap design has always been stupid, but the players were dumb enough to buy the idea that it meant more money for them than it ever did/does/will. The cap numbers themselves are arbitrary substitutions for %'s of %'s of %'s.

Players would have been better off with a consistent 90-110% (or 80-100%, even these numbers don't really matter) cap design because it would have forced them to do the 9th grade math and critical thinking to understand how it actually works instead of bemoaning how their take-home pay is so much lower than the number on the contract they signed (the same reality for all of us).
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Old 09-19-2020, 04:29 PM   #68
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I think there will be regional bubbles to start the season. Canada will be a regional bubble and you're playing each Canadian team 3 or 4 times in that bubble (a 6 to 8 weeks or so total in the bubble).

That way TV interest will be up so Sportsnet and teams can try and sell advertising based on rivalry team games.

Then they'd hope by early next year they can get fans into buildings as travel and group restrictions eased.

If not able to that yet they'd have to do a bubble format with other regions, again packing games into a two or three week bubble, then leaving a few weeks in between switching bubbles and allow to see family.

Maybe the season is only 55 games or so, playing the other Canadian teams 4x each, then teams in one other regional bubble 4x or so. Then playoffs from there.
"In his annual pre-Stanley Cup Final news conference, Bettman said Saturday there is still too much uncertainty to know what that season will look like. He wouldn’t address speculation about an all-Canadian division given the U.S.-Canada border closure to nonessential travel. The league has repeatedly said opening training camps Nov. 17 and beginning the season Dec. 1 were tentative targets. Bettman raised the possibility of the season starting later in December or in January. Asked about potentially not playing until the fall of 2021, Bettman anticipates a full, 82-game season and playoffs."

https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2020/09/19...er-or-january/
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Old 09-19-2020, 06:12 PM   #69
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Yeah, I don't agree that people's mental health is what's making an impact on the ratings.
It 100% affects ratings to a degree. As I stated it is not the only factor, but claiming it isn't is pure ignorance.
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Old 09-19-2020, 07:03 PM   #70
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"In his annual pre-Stanley Cup Final news conference, Bettman said Saturday there is still too much uncertainty to know what that season will look like. He wouldn’t address speculation about an all-Canadian division given the U.S.-Canada border closure to nonessential travel. The league has repeatedly said opening training camps Nov. 17 and beginning the season Dec. 1 were tentative targets. Bettman raised the possibility of the season starting later in December or in January. Asked about potentially not playing until the fall of 2021, Bettman anticipates a full, 82-game season and playoffs."

https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2020/09/19...er-or-january/

Uncertainty aka will Rogers pay for another year of this poor excuse for entertainment. Poor Gary. The empire he has built on the backs of Canadians is starting to crumble. All it took was a pandemic.

Kudos for doing the best you could in these circumstances. But this product isn’t worth hundreds of millions. Heck its not even worth 20 bucks per month to me. SN now cancelled
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Old 09-19-2020, 07:58 PM   #71
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Uncertainty aka will Rogers pay for another year of this poor excuse for entertainment. Poor Gary. The empire he has built on the backs of Canadians is starting to crumble. All it took was a pandemic.

Kudos for doing the best you could in these circumstances. But this product isn’t worth hundreds of millions. Heck its not even worth 20 bucks per month to me. SN now cancelled
For the last ####ing time, Rogers will not be getting out of the NHL TV deal. Just ####ing give it up already dude.
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Old 09-20-2020, 09:13 AM   #72
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The owners agreed to the CBA extension, too. They are paying out more now, but will pay less in the back half of the extension to even out.

A few franchises may be at risk no matter how the parties agreed to proceed. That won't be a surprise to any of them, and I'm sure they're already working to figure it out.


The whole inflating cap design has always been stupid, but the players were dumb enough to buy the idea that it meant more money for them than it ever did/does/will. The cap numbers themselves are arbitrary substitutions for %'s of %'s of %'s.

Players would have been better off with a consistent 90-110% (or 80-100%, even these numbers don't really matter) cap design because it would have forced them to do the 9th grade math and critical thinking to understand how it actually works instead of bemoaning how their take-home pay is so much lower than the number on the contract they signed (the same reality for all of us).
I am not sure that the Rangers, Habs, Leafs, Bruins, Hawks, Kings, Flyers owners sitting around a table trying to figure out how much of their revenue should be diverted to supporting Small Market Teams.

Are Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa big assets in working out a US TV contract... Or even a Canadian TV contract. How many less viewers would HNIC have with Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver as the Canadian teams in the package?

Their revenue and profits will go up if there is a contraction.

How did the small market owners agree to a 81.5 M cap when their break even point would be a 63M cap?

Really agree with you in the mess that escrow and now delayed escrow has on players salaries.

Maybe the NHL should move to paying players with NHL backed crypto currency that the owners control the value and utilization to make purchases.
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Old 09-20-2020, 09:24 AM   #73
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On escrow and delayed escrow..

Someone like Gio who has 2 big earning years left he gets at least 80% of the money in his contract and walks away. He is not going to pay back the extra 2 M he banked more than the terms of the CBA said he deserved.

He leaves Tkachuk and Mangiapane and Andersson and Lindholm paying off the owners for the next 5 years for over paying Gio by 15% for his last two years.
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Old 09-20-2020, 10:43 AM   #74
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I am not sure that the Rangers, Habs, Leafs, Bruins, Hawks, Kings, Flyers owners sitting around a table trying to figure out how much of their revenue should be diverted to supporting Small Market Teams.

Are Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa big assets in working out a US TV contract... Or even a Canadian TV contract. How many less viewers would HNIC have with Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver as the Canadian teams in the package?

Their revenue and profits will go up if there is a contraction.
I am not convinced of this—I suspect that contraction would be extremely messy and prohibitively expensive, and would likely bankrupt whatever was left of the Leaguenin the end.

But more to the point, individual teams are not "figuring out" their own revenue distributions to other teams because it is outside of their control. The Rangers, Habs, Leafs et al may not like the fact that portions of their profits are diverted to support the League, but there is not much they can do about it since they already signed off on the deal that enshrines various forms of revenue sharing and redistribution. TO or Montreal may be the wealthiest franchises in the NHL, but they still have only one vote each at the Board of Governors table, and they have already empowered the commissioner to make final decisions for the health of the ENTIRE LEAGUE, and not just the richest teams.

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How did the small market owners agree to a 81.5 M cap when their break even point would be a 63M cap?
Maybe not all of them did? It is entirely possible that some of the signees of the new CBA were more reluctant than others. But it's not like the owners sit around every year and debate the number at which the cap should be set. There is a formula that defines the cap; the formula is written into the CBA, which all the owners have already signed off on.

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Really agree with you in the mess that escrow and now delayed escrow has on players salaries.

Maybe the NHL should move to paying players with NHL backed crypto currency that the owners control the value and utilization to make purchases.
I read your weird post about "delayed escrow" and you are going to have to unpack some of this for me: Giordano will be banking $2.0 m "more than the terms of the CBA said he deserved"? How do you figure? Where does this number come from?

And then please explain to me how you get to five years of payments by three players to the owners for 15% of overpayment to Giordano. Or are these merely numbers that you are making up?
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Old 09-20-2020, 01:41 PM   #75
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It 100% affects ratings to a degree. As I stated it is not the only factor, but claiming it isn't is pure ignorance.
I would guess that if there is any influence of mental health affecting ratings, it's at an incredibly minimal level. Like 1%-5%. Sports viewers that were depressed before covid, still watched. So don't think that just because of covid, now depressed sports viewers aren't watching because of their depression primarily.

But it's all speculative on the beholder. Really can't say for certain unless a scientific study is done on this.
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Old 09-20-2020, 04:00 PM   #76
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I assume mass unemployment causes many people to cut down on non-essentials like subscriptions to sports channels.

Another issue is the mass protests and police violence going on. Kind of steals attention.

It's also hard to create a playoff buzz when sports bars are dead and you can't argue with co-workers when everyone is working at home (or not working).

I would also assume many people like to avoid watching stuff that reminds of the covid thing. Hockey with empty stands is not that.
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Old 09-22-2020, 02:36 AM   #77
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This wasn't completely uninteresting.

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Old 09-22-2020, 02:55 AM   #78
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Everyone's talking about missing the atmosphere without fans and I'm here thinking the game looks better on TV with the clean arenas, big projection screens and no monkeys standing in front of cameras or banging on the glass.
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Old 09-22-2020, 05:03 AM   #79
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I would guess that if there is any influence of mental health affecting ratings, it's at an incredibly minimal level. Like 1%-5%. Sports viewers that were depressed before covid, still watched. So don't think that just because of covid, now depressed sports viewers aren't watching because of their depression primarily.

But it's all speculative on the beholder. Really can't say for certain unless a scientific study is done on this.
It's easy to say this is the case because it's not previously depressed viewers not watching, it's newly depressed, newly anxious. Folks that have been adjusting to solitude.

Take the NFL. The are down a large chunk in viewership, during their regular playing period, more people home and not working, they even have some fans in the crowds. Why would they be down so much? Simple, apathy.

People that have never struggled with it, or are used to struggling with it seem to want to write it off but it is a thing. There is a reason AHS and such and been pumping out tons to do with mental health during the pandemic. And anxiety and depression absolutely impacts your viewing habits. Just me personally, I went from watching things live, to watching on a delay with many breaks because I couldn't focus as well as normal, I have other friends that were so apathetic they didn't even watch any playoffs.

So you claim 1-5% of people, yet it has impacted about half the people I know. Yes, it is a small sample size, but I really doubt my group of friends is that unique where the difference in what I see and what you claim is that staggering.

This comes off as typical uninformed crap about mental health and writing it off like it's not a thing.
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Old 09-22-2020, 07:27 AM   #80
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This comes off as typical uninformed crap about mental health and writing it off like it's not a thing.
If you’re arguing from a perspective of informed expertise, then no doubt you can present some evidence or data to back up your assertion.

Nobody is denying that we’re seeing an increase in depression due to Covid. What we’re challenging is your assertion that depression has led to decreased sports viewership. Why would this be the case when the pandemic has seen an increase in other streamed entertainment?

I’ve never seen any data showing depressed people stop watching TV and sports. Back if I’m misinformed, I’ll be happy to be educated on the matter.
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