Pronman's 2020 Farm System Rankings

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I wouldn't call lists like this random.

I think subjective is a better word.

He has clear cut offs for age, so players exit based on a flat formula. Then he groups players into tiers, and applies the total by tier into a weighting to rank the organizations.

Just one guy's opinion, but clearly he likes the free agent signings, and maybe has more upside for a player or two on the Flames list.

Plus he puts a higher weight or emphasis on his opinion of elite-level skill/potential.

Going back through some of this previous assessments there are some major whiffs. But you are right, one guy's opinion, he's doing his job, we're discussing it. If he was extremely astute he wouldn't be working in the media and some team would hire him.

[Boreal]

One of the things that rarely gets mentioned when it comes to college or overage free agent signings is how the draft went from 9 to 7 rounds after the lockout. That's 60 players who previously would have been picked left to mature outside of team control.

With Vegas and now Seattle the number will be down to 46 players who would have been selected in a 9 round draft.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah, the Mackey signing went a bit unheralded due to when it was signed (...doomsday and all that), but he was THE college UFA this year.

Frank Seravalli's take is here

This kid will be in the NHL next season, and I don't think it's crazy to think it will be full-time.

I know very little about this player but would love to see him blossom. Here's hoping the Flames don't over invest in the blue line again.

If you intend to keep trading picks for d-men rentals at the deadline each year, I'd be OK with taking some risks at the start of the season with a young blueline supplemented by a journeyman or two on cheap one year deals.

[The Professor]

Down to 13 still no Flames. Maybe he forgot us?

[Enoch Root]

Can someone please update the list so far?

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Can someone please update the list so far?

And now for the rankings:

13. Los Angeles Kings

14. Chicago Blackhawks

15. Minnesota Wild

16. Winnipeg Jets

17. Dallas Stars

18. Detroit Red Wings

19. Columbus Blue Jackets

20. St. Louis Blues

21. Anaheim Ducks

22. Florida Panthers

23. Boston Bruins

24. Vegas Golden Knights

25. Tampa Bay Lightning

26. Edmonton Oilers

27. New York Islanders

28. San Jose Sharks

29. Nashville Predators

30. Pittsburgh Penguins

31. Washington Capitals

[The Professor]

Caps
Pens
Preds
Sharks
Islanders
Oilers
Lightning
Knights
Bruins
Panthers
Ducks
Blues
Jackets
Wings
Stars
Jets
Wild
Blackhawks
Kings

[Enoch Root]

The team that really jumps out of that list for me (other than the Oilers, lol) is Detroit. It feels like they have sucked for a long time. But here are their recent seasons in reverse order (which shows how long it takes to truely suck):

2019: 31st
2018: 28th
2017: 26th
2016: 25th
2015: 16th

So it has taken them 5 years to get all the way to the bottom.

However, that doesn't explain their place on this list. What's weird is that, despite those bottom 5 finishes in the last 4 years, they have picked 6th, 6th, 9th and 20th. Combination of really bad luck in the lottery, plus maybe trading away a pick or two?

And where will they pick this year? 2nd?

[agulati]

The draft lottery wasn’t kind to them at all. They are picking 4th, albeit in a strong draft, but missing out on the top 3 is rough for the franchise and their fans

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by agulati

The draft lottery wasn’t kind to them at all. They are picking 4th, albeit in a strong draft, but missing out on the top 3 is rough for the franchise and their fans

I don't feel sorry for them as they had an incredible run of making the playoffs.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by agulati

The draft lottery wasn’t kind to them at all. They are picking 4th, albeit in a strong draft, but missing out on the top 3 is rough for the franchise and their fans

I think the lottery is overdone as a compensation to the luck of the morons to the north. A team should not be able to drop 3 spots. Detroit was clearly and obviously the worst team in the league. They should be no lower than 2nd. You can still have a multiple-pick lottery if you want, but the "no more than 1 pick drop" principle should override the result.

[agulati]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't feel sorry for them as they had an incredible run of making the playoffs.

That's fair.

I'd rather Red Wings though, than the teams that have tanked regularly to pick top 3 (Looks north)

[TheScorpion]

It's genuinely puzzling that the Flames are ahead of Chicago and LA.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

It's genuinely puzzling that the Flames are ahead of Chicago and LA.

I really don't think it is based on how well the 2016 draft went for the Flames.

IMO, Tkachuk is still criminally underrated on this board.

He's the best player on the team.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

The lottery system set up as it does offers the potential for a team to be like the Rangers and luck their way into being a likely cup contender. They really didn't have many bad years, at least not bad like the Senators or the Red Wings, and then they have been able to get back to back top 2 picks in the draft. Combined with some good drafting at other positions and a defenseman who would only sign with them and they really have had better luck to propel them forward.

The Oilers/Sabres tanking and general awful play for a decade has really made it worse for truly bad teams to improve as their odds of getting a top pick have dropped as a result.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The team that really jumps out of that list for me (other than the Oilers, lol) is Detroit. It feels like they have sucked for a long time. But here are their recent seasons in reverse order (which shows how long it takes to truely suck):

2019: 31st
2018: 28th
2017: 26th
2016: 25th
2015: 16th

So it has taken them 5 years to get all the way to the bottom.

However, that doesn't explain their place on this list. What's weird is that, despite those bottom 5 finishes in the last 4 years, they have picked 6th, 6th, 9th and 20th. Combination of really bad luck in the lottery, plus maybe trading away a pick or two?

And where will they pick this year? 2nd?

Detroit has done some really awkward drafting. Passing on Quinn Hughes for Zadina and then reaching for a D-man the following year. Yeah, Zadina will probably end up a pretty good goal scorer and that German d-man is apparently pretty good too but they had the kid in their back yard. They saw him more than anyone and couldn't see this coming? A solid goal-scoring winger can be pretty easy to find in the draft, but a #1 dman is usually much harder to land.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Detroit has done some really awkward drafting. Passing on Quinn Hughes for Zadina and then reaching for a D-man the following year. Yeah, Zadina will probably end up a pretty good goal scorer and that German d-man is apparently pretty good too but they had the kid in their back yard. They saw him more than anyone and couldn't see this coming? A solid goal-scoring winger can be pretty easy to find in the draft, but a #1 dman is usually much harder to land.

IIRC there was a decent contingent of the fan base who was lamenting this as soon as it happened.

On the other hand, Zadina seemed like he was slipping a bit from his top 3 position in the draft. I wonder if he's going on a similar trajectory to Puljujarvi?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

I think the lottery is overdone as a compensation to the luck of the morons to the north. A team should not be able to drop 3 spots. Detroit was clearly and obviously the worst team in the league. They should be no lower than 2nd. You can still have a multiple-pick lottery if you want, but the "no more than 1 pick drop" principle should override the result.

Disagree. A guaranteed top-2 pick is a huge incentive to shoot for last place.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by SebC

Disagree. A guaranteed top-2 pick is a huge incentive to shoot for last place.

Let them shoot for last place. The draft is meant to ensure competitiveness - they have gone too far the other way. I would rather have a rule that a team can't win the lottery in consecutive years, or whatever similar, to deal with the Oilers/Rangers scenarios...

[SebC]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

Let them shoot for last place. The draft is meant to ensure competitiveness - they have gone too far the other way. I would rather have a rule that a team can't win the lottery in consecutive years, or whatever similar, to deal with the Oilers/Rangers scenarios...

We also have the cap to ensure competitiveness, so weakening the draft as a control mechanism makes sense. It should not be so strong that teams compete to be the biggest loser.

My ideal system has a lot of math involved and would require a lot of data analysis to factor probably (and the factors would change as new data comes in). It would account for prior draft positions, so the effect would be similar to banning consecutive wins. However, given a choice between the current system, and the current system but with a one position drop max, I take the current system as is.