Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well Pinder is undeniably right, but the other moving parts the Flames are dealing with complicate things. The Flames can offer absolute max money and 8 years. No team could match that. But the Flames would probably have to wave bye to Tkachuk to do so.

Why do the Flames have to say goodbye to Tkachuk to sign Gaudreau for 8 years?

If the Flames get rid of Monahan and Lucic, they'll have more than enough room. They'll have to give up some assets to make that happen, but that's probably preferable to losing either player.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

He has realized he has failed at running Gaudreau out of town and is now turning to Tkachuk. Exactly what I said would happen.

and somewhere D'Ohboy is nodding in approval

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Why do the Flames have to say goodbye to Tkachuk to sign Gaudreau for 8 years?

If the Flames get rid of Monahan and Lucic, they'll have more than enough room. They'll have to give up some assets to make that happen, but that's probably preferable to losing either player.

8 years at max. dollar, whatever that value is.

I think Gio's point is that if we boil it down to just dollars, the Flames can offer more money than any other team. they can go max term (8 years), max dollars. Any other team can only offer 7 years.

[Vinny01]

Regarding Francis he is a very easy to dislike the way he carry’s himself and nothing more annoying when he arrogantly stakes a claim like it is fact when it is just his near worthless opinion. He is such an easy person to dislike and it would be cool if Sportsnet moved on and he retires from sports writing.


Regarding Johnny I think it is fair to say he is looking for an 8 year deal to stay here and if he moves on he will be signing for 7 years wherever that may be. I do think there is loyalty to the organization for drafting him and there is certainly a love for the fanbase and city that stretches to his family as well as himself. $10.5x8 is the same money as $12x7 so I hope a long playoff run and solid performance for Johnny locks him up as a Flames for life where he can take a legit run at all the franchise records for forwards and bring a Cup back to the city.

Tkachuk is interesting. I do think there is a sense of loyalty for him as well being the team that drafted him and the chance to be one of the all time franchise greats and next captain of the team. His Dad was a captain, his brother is a captain and I am sure he wants to be one as well. I do wonder if he looks at the potential cap rising in 2-3 years and considers a shorter term extension? Get a $10Mx3 deal and see what is out there in 3 years. Takes away some long term security but also opens up flexibility for him to earn more and move on in the future? 7x3 followed by 10x3 would have been the equivalent of 6x 8.5M which the team likely would have loved to sign after the 2019 season.

If Johnny signs it will almost certainly be 8 years but I could see Tkachuk doing anything from 1-8 years.

[Bourque's Twin]

Tre said they're going to move "heaven" and "earth"

Heaven = Lucic
Earth = Monahan

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by TOfan

8 years at max. dollar, whatever that value is.

I think Gio's point is that if we boil it down to just dollars, the Flames can offer more money than any other team. they can go max term (8 years), max dollars. Any other team can only offer 7 years.

Max dollars? Huh?

Max dollars is over $16 million AAV. Gaudreau is not getting that and no team is offering that, for 7 or 8 years.

[SuperMatt18]

To me the biggest thing is that it appears this group really wants to try to win together.

If they didn't I don't think they would have been as receptive to having Sutter as coach as it appears they have been.

I think we might see Gaudreau sign 8 years, and I honestly think Tkachuk might sign for 3 years to try to cash in even more then once the cup goes up post the COVID cap restrictions.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Max dollars? Huh?

Max dollars is over $16 million AAV. Gaudreau is not getting that and no team is offering that, for 7 or 8 years.

No one said he is. The point was only that Pinder was correct, but that it was a superficial correctness.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Why do the Flames have to say goodbye to Tkachuk to sign Gaudreau for 8 years?

If the Flames get rid of Monahan and Lucic, they'll have more than enough room. They'll have to give up some assets to make that happen, but that's probably preferable to losing either player.

They'd have to say goodbye in order to give Gaudreau max dollars in my hypothetical. You are kind of missing the point, which was only about Pinder's tweet.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

No one said he is. The point was only that Pinder was correct, but that it was a superficial correctness.

It's not superficial correctness. The Flames will undoubtedly offer him the most expensive contract come July 18. The most realistic contract. In order for other teams to match them on a total dollar value basis, they would have to offer $12.5 million AAV+.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

It's not superficial correctness. The Flames will undoubtedly offer him the most expensive contract come July 18. The most realistic contract. In order for other teams to match them on a total dollar value basis, they would have to offer $12.5 million AAV+.

It totally is a meaningless statement. I can't see how anyone can say "undoubtedly" the the Flames will offer the "most expensive contract", even 7 years versus 8.

The Flames might, for example, offer $9.5 over 8 because that's all they can afford and still keep Tkachuk and Mangiapane long term. $11M x 7 beats that even before taxes.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It totally is a meaningless statement. I can't see how anyone can say "undoubtedly" the the Flames will offer the "most expensive contract", even 7 years versus 8.

The Flames might, for example, offer $9.5 over 8 because that's all they can afford and still keep Tkachuk and Mangiapane long term. $11M x 7 beats that even before taxes.

Because it seems you didn't listen to the morning show, I will try to explain what Pinder is saying in this tweet.

He thinks the Flames will try to get a contract around $88 million over 8 years. This results in an AAV of $11 million.

In order for another team to match that $88 million, a 7 year contract would result in a $12.57 million AAV.

I really don't see how this is is a superficial point. It seems really unlikely that another team would offer Gaudreau a $12.57 million AAV contract.

[Jay Random]

As I think I've mentioned earlier in this thread, the 8th year also gives the Flames the option to front-load the contract so that Gaudreau isn't leaving money on the table in the first few years. For example, if we're looking at an AAV of $11m, they could offer six years at 12, followed by 9 and 7. Leave off that last year, as any other team would have to do, and the AAV jumps to $11.57m.

It's a significant advantage, given that the chances are very small Gaudreau will be able to command top dollar in a new contract at age 35.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Because it seems you didn't listen to the morning show, I will try to explain what Pinder is saying in this tweet.

He thinks the Flames will try to get a contract around $88 million over 8 years. This results in an AAV of $11 million.

In order for another team to match that $88 million, a 7 year contract would result in a $12.57 million AAV.

I really don't see how this is is a superficial point. It seems really unlikely that another team would offer Gaudreau a $12.57 million AAV contract.

Pinder’s tweet is not necessarily about the morning show. And he’s certainly not an insider when it comes to the Flames. So his guesswork doesn’t = “undoubtedly the most money”.

I happen to think they will offer the highest total gross value of any team. But it’s not a certainty. And that’s gross, not net, which could pose an issue, though I don’t think any of the teams who’d be in the mix are in low tax states.

[Ashasx]

ok

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

To me the biggest thing is that it appears this group really wants to try to win together.

If they didn't I don't think they would have been as receptive to having Sutter as coach as it appears they have been.

I think we might see Gaudreau sign 8 years, and I honestly think Tkachuk might sign for 3 years to try to cash in even more then once the cup goes up post the COVID cap restrictions.

This is a good point. Tkachuk is a great player, but Johnny is his meal ticket. Does he even get 80 points working with a lesser player?

He's going to get 100 points this year. That's a big-money year. But 3 or 4 hundred point years? That's max AAV baby. And being on Gaudreau's line is his best bet.

[agulati]

Originally Posted by BigRed

This is a good point. Tkachuk is a great player, but Johnny is his meal ticket. Does he even get 80 points working with a lesser player?

He's going to get 100 points this year. That's a big-money year. But 3 or 4 hundred point years? That's max AAV baby. And being on Gaudreau's line is his best bet.

Tkachuk did have 77 points on Backlund’s wing back in 2018-19. Though he probably did see PP time with Johnny

[GioforPM]

IIRC there’s now a courting period before FA day. Which means Johnny could hear what the offers are going to be like before the Flames lose their 8th year advantage. I imagine that’s what happened with Landeskog causing him to re-sign the day before he hit UFA.

[agulati]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

IIRC there’s now a courting period before FA day. Which means Johnny could hear what the offers are going to be like before the Flames lose their 8th year advantage. I imagine that’s what happened with Landeskog causing him to re-sign the day before he hit UFA.

I believe they did away with that in the last CBA signed in 2020.

[MegaErtz]

What would it take to get Monahan's contract off the books? A first round pick?