Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Gaudreau 8 years / 62M (7.75M AAV) other teams would have to offer 8.86M AAV over 7 years to meet that total. Fair number for both sides and a contract comparable to Sean Couturier.

Tkachuk 6 years / 51M (8.5M AAV) - this pays him appropriately and takes him to 31 years old where he can still cash in and finish his career wherever he deems fit. He get's slightly more than his brother and both become UFA's the same summer.

That's only an extra 2.5M in capspace compared to this season.

I’d not think either player would take those offers. Especially with how they are playing right now. To sign both players, the flames will likely have to offer them max term and $.

For tkachuk to maximize his earnings, he’ll either want a deal that makes him a UFA next year, when he’s 28 (maybe), or when he’s 33/34. So that means the flames will have to sign him to a max term or to a 1 year deal.

The extra year that the flames can offer him will likely be used as an incentive for him to sign. If the flames offer him an AAV that’s below the market value, that negates the incentive of the extra year. Using your example, Gaudreau would want the $8.86 M AAV for 8 years. That gives him the incentive to sign with the flames over anyone else. Offering him $7.75 million for 8 years doesn’t help if he could make the same amount of money over 7 years as he could over 8 years.


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[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Gaudreau 8 years / 62M (7.75M AAV) other teams would have to offer 8.86M AAV over 7 years to meet that total. Fair number for both sides and a contract comparable to Sean Couturier.

Tkachuk 6 years / 51M (8.5M AAV) - this pays him appropriately and takes him to 31 years old where he can still cash in and finish his career wherever he deems fit. He get's slightly more than his brother and both become UFA's the same summer.

That's only an extra 2.5M in capspace compared to this season.

I personally love these contracts, but I think Johnny's is probably needing an 8 at minimum, regardless of 8 or 7 years. IMO 8.5 x 8 is realistic.

Tkachuk i think is very close. Might say 5 years instead, as I think both he and Brady are putting a very high value on young age+UFA status. So ending at 30 might be significantly more desirable to him.

[GreenLantern2814]

Johnny at $8.5x 8 means he’s making $250k more than Brady Tkachuk, as a pending UFA, and vastly superior player.

If we can get him at even $9.75, it’s a bargain.

[Classic_Sniper]

Hope the 2 sign for matching deals and we can call it a day. The new top line has been crushing it since they were formed. They're scoring, winning, playing lots of minutes and having fun at the same time. Not sure why either would want to leave right now.

I definitely believe Johnny when he says he wants to stay. Elliotte Friedman asked his agent Lewis Gross and even he acknowledged as much. I use to think Johnny would likely bolt to Philly when he became a free agent (Eric Francis), but after looking at Philly's cap situation next season. I'm starting to think that won't be the case.

Also, Johnny knows the guys on this team, they went to his wedding this past summer, he's mentioned before that they're a tight knit group. He's also married now and his wife probably knows the other player's wives at this point. So perhaps, going to a new team, in a new situation with a new coach and new players he doesn't know might not be ideal. I think if this organization puts the right dollar figure in front of him, I think he signs.

[Hack&Lube]

The best way to keep both players (I also feel like it is unlikely) is for us to have a great season, create some winning culture, create positive bonds, and make a situation where the player wants to come back to this team again next year, versus going to an American market team that might have locker room issues and other unknowns.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Johnny at $8.5x 8 means he’s making $250k more than Brady Tkachuk, as a pending UFA, and vastly superior player.

If we can get him at even $9.75, it’s a bargain.

Yah, I would fully agree with this. He could get a 100 this year while playing far better defensively. The last two years he's not been the player he was in 2018/19, but he sure is now if not better.

Matthew is better than Brady. He'll want more than his brother. Both Tkachuk and Gaudreau will be high 9's or 10's AAV. If not, colour me impressed with Treliving.

[dino7c]

Who is the last player above PPG that went UFA?

I think Gaudreau will finish the season over a PPG

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Yah, I would fully agree with this. He could get a 100 this year while playing far better defensively. The last two years he's not been the player he was in 2018/19, but he sure is now if not better.

Matthew is better than Brady. He'll want more than his brother. Both Tkachuk and Gaudreau will be high 9's or 10's AAV. If not, colour me impressed with Treliving.

Yeah I can’t see Matthew signing for $250k more than his brother. The only thing Brady has ever done better at than Matthew is get drafted, and he probably has his brother to thank for that.

Matthew is the better player in every way that matters.

If Treliving manages to retain both of them, period, it’ll be impressive by Treliving standards.

Originally Posted by dino7c

Who is the last player above PPG that went UFA?

I think Gaudreau will finish the season over a PPG

Panarin.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Who is the last player above PPG that went UFA?

I think Gaudreau will finish the season over a PPG

Panarin @ $11,642,857?

[stemit14]

With the season that these players are having and the leverage that they have in their negotiations, this is what I see for both players:

Great deal for the flames: $8-9 million AAV
Fair deal for both sides: $9-10 million AAV
Great deal for the player: >= $10 million AAV

I’m assuming an 8 year deal for both players with no-move clauses for each. If the flames do sign both/either of them to long-term deals, I would predict something in the $9-10 million dollar range. Had the flames acquired eichel, I think Gaudreau and/or tkachuk may have accepted a little less ($8-9 million) to make room for him but I don’t think that incentive to sign a team-friendly deal will be there any more now.

[Groot]

According to Capfriendly, the Flames have $28.453 million in cap space next year. Assuming the 1 million increase is accurate, that leaves $29.453 million for next season.

Major contracts to sign;
Tkachuk
Gaudreau
Mangiapane
Kylington

That would give the Flames 17 players on their roster, needing 3 D and 3 F.

Start at $9 million per for Tkachuk and Gaudreau, or $18 million total. Kylington probably takes a smaller bridge deal, let's say $3.5 million. Mangiapane comes in at $6 million. That's $27.5 million, leaving $2.453 million in cap space. Not enough at all.

I imagine they look to move Monahan's final year of his contract, which would bring the available cap space to $8.828 million, which is more than enough for the last 6 roster players, or to increase the amounts given to the 4 key players above.

Ideally, Milan Lucic is offered a $2 million per year brand ambassador contract with Boston Pizza which convinces him to retire, then the team has more then enough space to also bring in some bigger UFA.

TL/DR - Trading Monahan gives the Flames plenty of cap space next year to re-sign Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Kylington, Mangiapane and complete the roster. Finding a way to move on from Lucic's contract through trade or retirement allows the above plus additional upgrades.

[Vinny01]

Treliving obviously didn’t give much here in his interview on the FAN. Made comments about Johnny wanting to be here and the team wanting to keep him and being aware of his contract status.

Still feels like this will get done eventually.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Treliving obviously didn’t give much here in his interview on the FAN. Made comments about Johnny wanting to be here and the team wanting to keep him and being aware of his contract status.

Still feels like this will get done eventually.

Maybe confirmation bias, but I felt the same coming from the interview. Of course, it was a nothingburger answer, but at least it didn't feel like bad news per se. I got the sense the GM and the agent are talking, but Johnny chose to remove himself from the process and focus on hockey. A lot better than waiting till the end of the season to talk.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Gaudreau 8 years / 62M (7.75M AAV) other teams would have to offer 8.86M AAV over 7 years to meet that total. Fair number for both sides and a contract comparable to Sean Couturier.

Tkachuk 6 years / 51M (8.5M AAV) - this pays him appropriately and takes him to 31 years old where he can still cash in and finish his career wherever he deems fit. He get's slightly more than his brother and both become UFA's the same summer.

That's only an extra 2.5M in cap space compared to this season.

A player with Tkachuk's style generally doesn't age well. I think he'll want max salary on his next contact as it will be by far his biggest payday.

I would bet the farm on him not taking 6y/51m. not a Tkachuk.

I would also be shocked if Gaudreau signed for only 7.75. That to me is under market value for him, and someone would easily pay him a million more per year. So That's the number the flames would have to be at.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

A player with Tkachuk's style generally doesn't age well. I think he'll want max salary on his next contact as it will be by far his biggest payday.

I would bet the farm on him not taking 6y/51m. not a Tkachuk.

I would also be shocked if Gaudreau signed for only 7.75. That to me is under market value for him, and someone would easily pay him a million more per year. So That's the number the flames would have to be at.

I know I am in the minority here but I just don't see teams backing up the brinks truck for Johhny long term - I can only imagine that his size and lack of playoff success are still mitigating and concerning factors for teams. I certainly don't think a 62M dollar retirement contract that takes him to 37 years old is undervaluing him. This is a player who has comfortably been under a point a game the past two seasons - which does factor in to these negotiations. You can certainly make the argument that he is a 9m dollar player today, but it's not realistic to expect that he will live up to that AAV or level of production in years 5+.

Regardless - personally you would hope that a player is willing to take a "fair contract" for an organization that is willing to commit what would be 16 years and over a 100M dollars into them. Panarin was coming off back to back point a game+ seasons, signed prior to the pandemic, was 27 years old, and could only be offered a 7 year deal as a UFA. I still maintain that the Couturier and Landeskog contracts are more comparable given the past three years.

In terms of Tkachuk. I would tend to agree with you. I think that projection was on the optimistic side simply due to the difficulty that the Tkachuk's have shown in the past in contract negotiations. They certainly don't put the team first. I maintain that as the player he is today that 8.5M is more than fair for what he provides (if not an overpayment), but we all know what that family prioritizes, and you can't blame them for that. I think Tkachuk will age just fine. He is not a player that relies on his speed or skating ability. He is a pure skill player at heart and processes the game at a very high level.

If you need to go 500k-750k more on the AAV for each player that is something you obviously have to do but I think there should be some give and take from both sides.

[Mr.Coffee]

Given Johnny’s start if I was him I’d be looking to sign now at around $10MM/year. I would think Calgary might entertain it. To not sign means taking on the injury risk factor and potentially lose an insane amount of money. His hot start has justified the big AAV. If we waits and gets injured he could be pretty regretful.

I would be so tempted to take the massive guaranteed cash. One game could end a career. Strikes me as crazy risky, but that’s a personal opinion for sure.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

A player with Tkachuk's style generally doesn't age well. I think he'll want max salary on his next contact as it will be by far his biggest payday.

I would bet the farm on him not taking 6y/51m. not a Tkachuk.

I would also be shocked if Gaudreau signed for only 7.75. That to me is under market value for him, and someone would easily pay him a million more per year. So That's the number the flames would have to be at.

Based on how the negotiations went with Brady and how involved Matthew was. I wouldn't be surprised if Matthew wanted an 8 figure cap hit for all UFA years. Matthew's next round of negotiations could be a scary one here. Throw in Gaudreau's camp which will want something comparable, this could very well be Treliving's toughest task ahead of him.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Given Johnny’s start if I was him I’d be looking to sign now at around $10MM/year. I would think Calgary might entertain it. To not sign means taking on the injury risk factor and potentially lose an insane amount of money. His hot start has justified the big AAV. If we waits and gets injured he could be pretty regretful.

I would be so tempted to take the massive guaranteed cash. One game could end a career. Strikes me as crazy risky, but that’s a personal opinion for sure.

Yeah I'm with you. I wouldn't be surprised to see Matthew and Johnny's next cap hit starting with a 10 in front of it. Some of the numbers i'm seeing thrown out here like 7.xx here is just unrealistic. We're talking about a player who's sitting 3rd in even strength scoring right now. Other teams in this league will pay for that and Lewis Gross knows that.

Whatever the amount ends up being, it'll probably be worth it because the top line is driving the team right now. Thank goodness for Lindholm's bargain contract, because that'll cushion the blow somewhat.

Treliving is supremely good with contract extensions and using leverage. But he won't have much leverage this coming summer, so, sadly, his penny pinching ways may actually come back to bite him in the rear end. Had he signed Mangiapane or Tkachuk to a long term contract like I had hoped years ago, the looming cap crunch would likely not sting as much.

[PeteMoss]

$10m seems steep to me. 13 players have that kind of cap hit now. Would seem a bit much to get either guy to that level.

[FlamesAddiction]

Who are the potential free agent forwards that will be competing with Gaudreau for contacts in 2022? I can't see too many and he stands to benefit from supply and demand in that respect. Of course, we also have to consider how many teams will have the cap or budget space.