Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I’ve been putting Hanifin in my trade proposals for quite some time now because I always knew Kylington could replace him in a pinch. Now that Oliver has actually surpassed him (in my opinion), the. it makes Hanifin expendable. If Hanifin’s contract needs to be moved out in order to pay for Mangiapane and Kylington’s new contracts, then I have absolutely no problem shipping Noah out.

I get that people look at his age and his draft position and think “potential, potential, potential!” But all I see is a $5M player who can skate, but is vanilla in every other aspect of the game. With Gio gone, I figured the increased opportunity would actually elevate his offensive production, but that hasn’t happened at all. I don’t think his current 3 assists would be that hard to replace at all. There are plenty of left shot vanilla defensemen who can defend relatively well and will come at a fraction of the price in the open market.

Hanifin has developed into a very solid shutdown Dman and there is not a replacement in place. I am so happy Kylington has done what he has done but it has been 15 games.

This is a thin blueline. So much junk up front I don’t agree they can trade a top pairing Dman right now just not expendable. Is Zadorov or Valimaki now in the top 4? Kylington goes from press box to number 1 LHD in 15 games?

I am not with you there when I see so many worse contracts contributing less.

I would prefer to buy out Monahan next summer then ship Hanifin out unless we see leaps and bounds improvement from Valimaki

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Darryl's system is the reason why the team's GAA sits where it sits. Check his history, 2003-2006 Flames, tops in the league in GAA and 2012-2018 Kings, tops in the league in GAA. Darryl's system is essentially plug and play. His system doesn't require expensive defensemen like Hanifin to function. Actually, upon Darryl's hiring last season, Gio was subsequently moved to the top shutdown pair with Tanev which resulted in a Hanifin demotion.

To me, it's pretty simple, Hanifin does not provide this team enough value for what he's paid. He's the team's highest paid defenseman and is expected to provide this team offense from the back end which he does not. He also doesn't drive the play for any pairing he's a part of and he needs to with that kind of contract. Treliving may not have a choice but to move him this coming summer with the cap crunch because he might have the easiest big contract to move. He has no trade protection, but still has some draft pedigree.

Maybe, he isn't paid like a guy who puts up a ton of points

[GreenLantern2814]

A tale of two players.

Player 1 is a left-shooting RW who made his NHL debut at 23. He doesn't achieve a PPG season until he's 28, and goes on to do this five more times. In addition, he has three seasons that miss out on PPG by fewer than 5 points, the last of which comes at age 38 when he misses by 1 point. He played 74+ games 12 times, and all 48 of a lockout-shortened season.

When his career finally ends, Player 1 is a 5x All-Star with a Stanley Cup, Hart, Pearson, 2x Art Ross, 3x Byng, over 1100 GP, 0.91 career PPG with over 1000 points and a spot in the Hall of Fame.

He stood 5 ft 8 (generously listed).

Johnny Gaudreau is also generously listed at 5 ft 9.

He is already a 5x All-Star, 1x Byng winner, has 2 PPG seasons before turning 28, missed PPG by < 5 points once, and has a career PPG of 0.95. He has played 79 games or more (Or every regular season game available) 6 times, and has not missed a game since 2018.

Player 1 is Marty St-Louis.

Players who can dominate in the NHL at the size of Johnny and Marty aren't doing it via overwhelming physical gifts. They're doing it because they're elite skaters with elite hockey IQ who are nearly impossible to hit.

Griffin Reinhart described trying to hit Johnny at the World Juniors as 'trying to hit fog'. The best shot I've ever seen him take was delivered by Pavel Datsyuk, another hockey genius.

He is as durable a player as you could ever hope to find. He doesn't get hit. He's fast, but he doesn't rely on being fast the way McDavid does - he beats guys by being able to change directions better than 99% of the sport.

Gaudreau is exactly the sort of player you gamble on being able to play at an elite level well into his 30s.

If he goes, there's zero sense in committing more money to this group - it needs to be nuked from orbit so civilization can begin anew.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

No, they look at their team and are honest about it. Hanifin won't be here in 2 years and is on a good contract and lots of teams in win now mode would give up a lot for him especially if there is term left. Seems like a perfect opportunity to cash in and get some assets and build for the future while remaining competitive.

You are talking like the guy is a pending free agent. He has 2.75 years left or 3 playoff runs. I don’t understand the need to ship him out. Players I would move before Hanifin

1. Monahan - 6.375
2. Lucic - 5.25
3. Coleman - 4.9
4. Zadorov - 3.75
5. Backlund - 5.35
6. Tanev- 4.5

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Darryl's system is the reason why the team's GAA sits where it sits. Check his history, 2003-2006 Flames, tops in the league in GAA and 2012-2018 Kings, tops in the league in GAA. Darryl's system is essentially plug and play. His system doesn't require expensive defensemen like Hanifin to function. Actually, upon Darryl's hiring last season, Gio was subsequently moved to the top shutdown pair with Tanev which resulted in a Hanifin demotion.

To me, it's pretty simple, Hanifin does not provide this team enough value for what he's paid. He's the team's highest paid defenseman and is expected to provide this team offense from the back end which he does not. He also doesn't drive the play for any pairing he's a part of and he needs to with that kind of contract. Treliving may not have a choice but to move him this coming summer with the cap crunch because he might have the easiest big contract to move. He has no trade protection, but still has some draft pedigree.

That's not really fair though, is it. He's paid under $5M, nowhere near what top offensive Dmen are paid. He's paid similar to Tanev, Oleksiak, Sanheim, Brodie, Pulock, etc.

He's paid according to what he is - a minute eating all purpose defenceman who can defend and move the puck. Who is 23. He's going to be more of a Tanev than a Gio IMO.

[Kipper_3434]

Gotta love how this board flipped from Johnny is only worth 7.5-8m a year on his next contract. To he will get over 10m . I have said 8.75-9m on an 8 year contract since summer. Very much a "what have you done for me lately" league.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

If he goes, there's zero sense in committing more money to this group - it needs to be nuked from orbit so civilization can begin anew.

If this team fails to make the playoffs or win a round shouldn’t they be really considering a tear down rebuild vs signing a 29 year old player to a 8 year deal at over $10M per?

[DJones]

Hanifin has a good contract for what he is. Not sure what these people are thinking they'll get to replace him without spending more money.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

So you wanted him signed at an unreasonable deal.

It strikes me that though you say you don't know what the variables were, there's no situation in which you'd say Treliving made a good choice. Either he trades into a market that may be soft, signs for an unreasonable price back then (actually he can't legally extend until this year anyway) or waits on the soft promises of Johnny.

I have no idea what his choices were, so I cannot comment on whether he made good choices or not. Maybe one of his choices was to trade into a market that was not soft. The fact that you used the word "may" suggests that there was a further choices.

And where did I say that he wanted him signed at an unreasonable price?

I have simply listed some of the available choices that may have been available to Treliving. But my very wording, it was never intended to be an exhaustive list. In fact, we don't know what his choices were.

We do know that Johnny continues to be unsigned, the clock is ticking, Johnny is playing very well, and he has all the leverage.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If this team fails to make the playoffs or win a round shouldn’t they be really considering a tear down rebuild vs signing a 29 year old player to a 8 year deal at over $10M per?

Likely they will need to choose on the latter before they know the former.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I have no idea what his choices were, so I cannot comment on whether he made good choices or not. Maybe one of his choices was to trade into a market that was not soft. The fact that you used the word "may" suggests that there was a further choices.

And where did I say that he wanted him signed at an unreasonable price?

I have simply listed some of the available choices that may have been available to Treliving. But my very wording, it was never intended to be an exhaustive list. In fact, we don't know what his choices were.

We do know that Johnny continues to be unsigned, the clock is ticking, Johnny is playing very well, and he has all the leverage.

That was the only choice left. Process of deduction.

Averall, I agree, we can't know all the details. That's why saying "losing him is 100% on Treliving" is a huge overstatement.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If this team fails to make the playoffs or win a round shouldn’t they be really considering a tear down rebuild vs signing a 29 year old player to a 8 year deal at over $10M per?

Probably. But we're the Calgary Flames, and the goal is always to make the playoffs, regardless of whether or not that makes any sense.

It's why it was so imperative they take the gamble on Eichel. That would've given them a direction.

They're not going to get better when Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk and Mangiapane cost them $35-$38M instead of $21M

[SuperMatt18]

My guess is if the Flames are willing to go $9 or $9.5M for 7 or 8 years that this gets done with Gaudreau.

But I think they are trying for low $8M range.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That was the only choice left. Process of deduction.

Averall, I agree, we can't know all the details. That's why saying "losing him is 100% on Treliving" is a huge overstatement.

What do you consider an unreasonable deal?

If Johnny goes to UFA, someone will give him 7x$11.25-11.75M.

I would give him the extra year at the same rate as he's being offered in UFA. It doesn't matter - you're not going to be able to do anything with the extra $1.5M or whatever it ends up being that replaces what Johnny Gaudreau brings.

[Heavy Jack]

If it’s 9 to 9.5 then just pull the trigger already Treliving. If we lose Johnny just ahead of the arena being built it would be supremely disappointing; he’s been putting fans in seats for years and despite not sporting a letter has been the face for Calgary along side Gio for years and years. With Gio going I see him as the current face of the franchise and under Sutter I think this is the most complete Gaudreau we have seen to date. It would be a shame to let him walk for nothing and he has beyond earned a contract that pays him in that range so please just get it done Tre.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

What do you consider an unreasonable deal?

If Johnny goes to UFA, someone will give him 7x$11.25-11.75M.

I would give him the extra year at the same rate as he's being offered in UFA. It doesn't matter - you're not going to be able to do anything with the extra $1.5M or whatever it ends up being that replaces what Johnny Gaudreau brings.

Well, first of all, it would have been illegal to extend him until the beginning of this year, but have a look at the estimates in the off season. None of them started with an 11.

I'd be hard pressed to give him that right now. 4th highest player in the league? I didn't think Panarin was worth what he got and still don't. But I'd need to know more about the cap projections. I'll admit he has looked 100X better than last year, when I was leery of something starting with 9. That's Kucherov money. And he's not better than Kucherov.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, first of all, it would have been illegal to extend him until the beginning of this year, but have a look at the estimates in the off season. None of them started with an 11.

I'd be hard pressed to give him that right now. 4th highest player in the league? I didn't think Panarin was worth what he got and still don't. But I'd need to know more about the cap projections. I'll admit he has looked 100X better than last year, when I was leery of something starting with 9. That's Kucherov money. And he's not better than Kucherov.

Kucherov would get $11M if he didn't play in Florida.

And regardless of whether Panarin is worth it or not, a franchise player who brings fans to the arena is going to get paid on the open market.

Gaudreau is a franchise player who brings fans to the arena.

Someone is going to pay him. And I don't feel like losing him over $1M, or $2M, or even $3M.

Philadelphia has $15M coming off the books just in Giroux, Ristolainen and Braun - I think they might be willing to go 7x$11.6M for the hometown kid who sets the building on fire every time he plays there. It might not even take that much for them.

It will take that much for us.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Probably. But we're the Calgary Flames, and the goal is always to make the playoffs, regardless of whether or not that makes any sense.

It's why it was so imperative they take the gamble on Eichel. That would've given them a direction.

They're not going to get better when Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk and Mangiapane cost them $35-$38M instead of $21M

I am with you 100% there. I am still disappointed Treliving didn’t make Eichel happen and if the result was an overpay I would have been cool with that because the potential for Eichel was/is so high. I felt that deal opens up a 5 year window. If he is permanently injured it would have crippled the team but I prefer they take the risk instead of staying the course.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Probably. But we're the Calgary Flames, and the goal is always to make the playoffs, regardless of whether or not that makes any sense.

It's why it was so imperative they take the gamble on Eichel. That would've given them a direction.

They're not going to get better when Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk and Mangiapane cost them $35-$38M instead of $21M

How would those players even come close to $35-38million? Even if Tkachuk and Gaudreau both get $10 million you think Mangiapane would get $10 million as well?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

How would those players even come close to $35-38million? Even if Tkachuk and Gaudreau both get $10 million you think Mangiapane would get $10 million as well?

$11 for Johnny, $10 for Matthew, $8.5 for Lindholm, $5M for Mangiapane = $34.5M