[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Crosby just dropped 94 points at age 36.

Arguably he could have got to 100 points as he only played 50 games with Guentzel.

Going into his Age 37 season, he just said he wants a several year extension.

So I think it is VERY likely that McDavid is dropping 100 point seasons at his age and then by and large give Draisaitl 90% of that.

Prior to Age 35, I think Drai will hit 100 points on a per game basis each year simply due to McDavid and the PP.

So he's worth the contract as I've said numerous times. I don't think there is a cliff to come that many are expecting here.

Im not sure that anyone said he wasnt worth it. its equal to 16x7 which is what someone would pay him on the open market.
the contract might even look good for a year or 3 too.

just dont think you can compare him to Crosby in any aspect and I believe the bigger issue here is that you are so vehemently defending "Drai" here while pretending not to wear Oiler PJ's

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

you are so vehemently defending "Drai" here while pretending not to wear Oiler PJ's

Elite player is elite. I'm not just going to hate on him because he plays for the rivals. You just have to shrug it off. There's nothing else to do. He's trending to 1,600+ career points. That will put him top 10 in history.

Same with McDavid. He's probably going to go down as the best ever. The prematurity of that in the first 2-3 years was over the top but he's about to pass 1,000 points at age 27. Very likely he will hit 2,000+ points in his career.

What's there to be sour about? It is such a negative way of life. We got dealt a ####ty hand as Flames fans. Now I am just hoping we get our own players at that level.

We are literally at halfway point of their careers or just short of it. That just sucks to me more as a Flames fan that we have to watch these guys for 10+ more years. Waiting for their "demise" doesn't make me feel better.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Elite player is elite. I'm not just going to hate on him because he plays for the rivals. You just have to shrug it off. There's nothing else to do. He's trending to 1,600+ career points. That will put him top 10 in history.

Same with McDavid. He's probably going to go down as the best ever. The prematurity of that in the first 2-3 years was over the top but he's about to pass 1,000 points at age 27. Very likely he will hit 2,000+ points in his career.

What's there to be sour about? It is such a negative way of life. We got dealt a ####ty hand as Flames fans. Now I am just hoping we get our own players at that level.

We are literally at halfway point of their careers or just short of it. That just sucks to me more as a Flames fan that we have to watch these guys for 10+ more years. Waiting for their "demise" doesn't make me feel better.

Woah!!!
Calm down there Lynx, youve shown your cards

[McG]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Elite player is elite. I'm not just going to hate on him because he plays for the rivals. You just have to shrug it off. There's nothing else to do. He's trending to 1,600+ career points. That will put him top 10 in history.

Same with McDavid. He's probably going to go down as the best ever. The prematurity of that in the first 2-3 years was over the top but he's about to pass 1,000 points at age 27. Very likely he will hit 2,000+ points in his career.

What's there to be sour about? It is such a negative way of life. We got dealt a ####ty hand as Flames fans. Now I am just hoping we get our own players at that level.

We are literally at halfway point of their careers or just short of it. That just sucks to me more as a Flames fan that we have to watch these guys for 10+ more years. Waiting for their "demise" doesn't make me feel better.

So using Crosby as a single data point, you have now extrapolated that the oilers somehow managed to fluke out with these two players both playing as if they were in their 20s for another 10 years?

Surely you must recognize that with the announcements of various life threatening injuries that both players have suffered, it must have a negative impact on longevity. Pissy in particular …someone is going to retaliate for the dirty play. I think Mavi will post better numbers for longer, but you are saying that Mavi will average over 100 points per season for the next 10 years?

I don’t know any oilers fan that realistically thinks that what you are proposing is anything more than wishful thinking.

Perhaps you have heard of Father Time? Undefeated.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by McG

……….I don’t know any oilers fan that realistically thinks that what you are proposing is anything more than wishful thinking…….

Except for the one that you are responding to of course

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by McG

So using Crosby as a single data point.

that Mavi will average over 100 points per season for the next 10 years?

I don’t know any oilers fan that realistically thinks that what you are proposing is anything more than wishful thinking.

Perhaps you have heard of Father Time? Undefeated.

Yes - I am using Crosby as a single data point.

Both players are looking good for top 10 in NHL History for career points. They're not just "exceptional" - they are some of the best ever statistically and this bus is driven by McDavid.

I don't care what Oilers fans think or not. This is my belief. You don't need to be an "Oilers fan" to think that McDavid and Draisaitl will average 100 points over the next 10 years. The only condition being that they play together during that time.

[All In Good Time]

Comparing draisaitl to Crosby is like comparing edmonton to Good

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Yes - I am using Crosby as a single data point.

Both players are looking good for top 10 in NHL History for career points. They're not just "exceptional" - they are some of the best ever statistically and this bus is driven by McDavid.

I don't care what Oilers fans think or not. This is my belief. You don't need to be an "Oilers fan" to think that McDavid and Draisaitl will average 100 points over the next 10 years. The only condition being that they play together during that time.

No, only the "Oilers fans" think that McDavid and Draisaitl will average 100 points over the next 10 years.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Yes - I am using Crosby as a single data point.

Both players are looking good for top 10 in NHL History for career points. They're not just "exceptional" - they are some of the best ever statistically and this bus is driven by McDavid.

I don't care what Oilers fans think or not. This is my belief. You don't need to be an "Oilers fan" to think that McDavid and Draisaitl will average 100 points over the next 10 years. The only condition being that they play together during that time.

Are you still going on about the Oilers being great lol...its been over a week guy give it a rest. Besides Drai barely hit 100 last year for christ sake, he isn't averaging 100 points the next 10 years get real.

[Enoch Root]

Here are the top 10 scorers of all time, and the number of seasons they hit 100 points, after turning 30:

Gretzky: 4
Jagr: 1
Messier: 1
Howe: 1
Francis: 2
Dionne: 3
Lemieux: 1
Sakic: 2
Crosby: 1

but 'Flames fan' InternationalVillager is here to tell us uneducated fans that McDavid and Draisaitl are both going to "average 100 points over the next 10 years", which would make them the first two players in NHL history to do it - seems reasonable!

[dino7c]

Even Wayne was under PPG let alone 100 points by 38

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Even Wayne was under PPG let alone 100 points by 38

I don’t think there’s a single oilers fan worried about the contract at the age of 38. Not because it might not be bad, but because it’s not the focus. Either this bet pays off, a cup ensues and these guys play out their career here talking about the cup. Or there’s no cups and then there’s 2 scenarios. One is these guys are boat anchors and it’s a sad decline into misery near the end and a rebuild starts. Or they ask for a trade to try to collect their chip and the rebuild starts.

The gamble is the only thing the franchise could do. Still may never win the cup but sure as heck don’t win one without Drai and Mcdavid. Time will tell.

[Calgary]

Dre seems like a guy who will be elite into his late 30's. As a Flames fan I would take his contract over Huberdau's all day.

[My2Cents]

Originally Posted by Calgary

Dre seems like a guy who will be elite into his late 30's. As a Flames fan I would take his contract over Huberdau's all day.

Comparing Drai's contract to Huby's doesn't instill a lot of confidence... Huby's contract is widely considered the worst contract in the league. Of course we would make that trade.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Here are the top 10 scorers of all time, and the number of seasons they hit 100 points, after turning 30:

Gretzky: 4
Jagr: 1
Messier: 1
Howe: 1
Francis: 2
Dionne: 3
Lemieux: 1
Sakic: 2
Crosby: 1

but 'Flames fan' InternationalVillager is here to tell us uneducated fans that McDavid and Draisaitl are both going to "average 100 points over the next 10 years", which would make them the first two players in NHL history to do it - seems reasonable!

Yeah Draisaitl is 30-37 on his next deal, McDavid will be 29-36.

Gretzky from 29-36: 1.43 P/GP, 816 points
Crosby from 29-36: 1.16 P/GP, 658 points

So hypothetically Gretzky did "average" 100 points per season in that 8 season stretch, Crosby who is the best modern comparison is 95 points per 82.

But it's also important to remember that these point production is about 1.0 P/GP lower than Gretzky's highest output too (2.65 & 2.69 P/GP in his highest seasons).

Gretzky from 18-28: 2.34 P/GP, 1979 points in 847 games
Gretzky from 29-36: 1.43 P/GP, 816 points in 570 games

So more missed games due to injury (and lockout) and much lower point per game (61% of prime production)

And for Crosby:

Crosby from 17-28: 1.33 P/GP, 938 points in 707 games
Crosby from 29-36: 1.16 P/GP, 658 points in 565 games

So for Crosby it was not nearly as big a drop as Gretzky but still was 0.87% of his peak production. But Crosby's peak was also a bit deflated due to his injury issues from 2010-2013 that probably robbed us of his real "peak".

So if you look at Gretzky and Crosby and if you consider the improvement of goaltending and defense in the 90s probably made Gretzky's numbers reduce more drastically then maybe you can adjust that to an estimate that they will reduce to 80% of peak production.

Career to Date:

McDavid: 1.52 P/GP; 124 points per 82
Draisaitl: 1.18 P/GP; 97 point per 82

So if you were to adjust those points per game to 80% of their early career production:

McDavid: 1.21 P/GP; 99 points per 82
Draisaitl: 0.94 P/GP: 77 points per 82

But as they get older they become much less likely to play full 82 games seasons too. If McDavid averages around 90 points per season, and Draisaitl around 75 points per season over the course of each of their 8 year contracts that would be much more in line with history and expectations.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

And for Crosby:

Crosby from 17-28: 1.33 P/GP, 938 points in 707 games
Crosby from 29-36: 1.16 P/GP, 658 points in 565 games

So for Crosby it was not nearly as big a drop as Gretzky but still was 0.87% of his peak production. But Crosby's peak was also a bit deflated due to his injury issues from 2010-2013 that probably robbed us of his real "peak".

.

geez Crosby find a new quirk

[Redrum]

The thing is they will have to maintain that 1.5 PPG with depth getting even worse because of their cap hit, zero prospects, and brutal defense. Basically they will have to redline it all the time and keep the stars aligned perfectly for any success at all.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Redrum

The thing is they will have to maintain that 1.5 PPG with depth getting even worse because of their cap hit, zero prospects, and brutal defense. Basically they will have to redline it all the time and keep the stars aligned perfectly for any success at all.

Yeah. The point is.... they won't.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Whynotnow

I don’t think there’s a single oilers fan worried about the contract at the age of 38. Not because it might not be bad, but because it’s not the focus. Either this bet pays off, a cup ensues and these guys play out their career here talking about the cup. Or there’s no cups and then there’s 2 scenarios. One is these guys are boat anchors and it’s a sad decline into misery near the end and a rebuild starts. Or they ask for a trade to try to collect their chip and the rebuild starts.

The gamble is the only thing the franchise could do. Still may never win the cup but sure as heck don’t win one without Drai and Mcdavid. Time will tell.

There is another scenario that could play out. The age and contracts handcuff the oilers for the next 8-10 years.... but the team is too good to rebuild and draft high in the draft. After next year, this option is more likely to play out than a cup or being at the bottom and rebuilding. Also, very unlikely these guys get traded in the next 6-7 years. Could be a 3rd place team or wildcard team for many years.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Hackey

If you were GM of the Oilers what direction would you have taken? Trade him? Let him play out the deal and walk? Trade him for a vet and try to still compete? Trade him for prospects and try and retool?

It would be a choice between trading him, doing nothing, or a short term deal.

Trading would have given them premium picks and prospects, the likes of which are rarely available. It also would have cleared the deck for a Bouchard deal who actually is at an age where a long term offer can be considered. Drafting star players and turning them into younger players (hopefully future stars) instead of funding their decline is a good idea.

Doing nothing would have given them the exact same shot at this year that they already have - without hitching their wagon to Draisaitl's decline. He also would have no reason to relax in a contract year where everyone would be watching.

A 1-3 year deal would have made sense for the Oilers and would be something I'd see if their camp was interested in. If that was a non-starter, it would boil down to the first two options.

What they did gives them the same thing as doing nothing, plus signing him to a negative value contract. If Draisaitl had been FA at age 29 (instead of 30) and the options were 1x$8.5 or 9x$13.4, which one would you be interested in? The former is doing nothing, and the latter is what the Oilers chose.