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Old 05-18-2019, 12:51 PM   #301
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Is there a team in the league that would realistically surrender a 1st round pick for Bennett?

If so, the Flames should be all over that deal hoping that club doesnt finish high in the standings.

It still feels like 2.75 is way more than what he provides, but in reality that is probably what it will take. I dont care about buying UFA years either as IMO he wont be anything more than a mediocre role player from here on out and those are guys you do not "buy" years of so they wont be lost.
I hear you.

Maybe he comes in cheaper.

But if you just look at production it's $2M based on last year's contracts and given where salaries are going you know it's upward.

Add in intangibles, metrics that suggest he has more in him, and an age that doesn't say he's peaked and it's hard not to see it approaching mid $2s at least.
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Old 05-18-2019, 01:07 PM   #302
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Quote:
Originally Posted by transplant99 View Post
Is there a team in the league that would realistically surrender a 1st round pick for Bennett?

If so, the Flames should be all over that deal hoping that club doesnt finish high in the standings.

It still feels like 2.75 is way more than what he provides, but in reality that is probably what it will take. I dont care about buying UFA years either as IMO he wont be anything more than a mediocre role player from here on out and those are guys you do not "buy" years of so they wont be lost.
I could see a team trading a pick in the 20’s for this draft for Bennett. I would want the Flames to steer clear of that. We already have the 26th pick and based on the Flames drafting history there is a much better chance that Bennett improves significantly from where he is now than that pick turning into a better player than Bennett is.

Look at the last 15 years.
Chucko, Pelech, Irving, Niemiz, Erixon, Poirier, Klimchuk
The only 2 NHLers in that time frame were Backlund and Jankowski who took 5+years to make a difference and Jankowski is hardly a difference maker.

I take the chance that Bennett becomes a 50pt winger before the Flames drafting a comparable player that will help this core.
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Old 05-18-2019, 01:08 PM   #303
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I think the baseline is nick ritchie at ~1.7 and the ceiling is Wood at 2.75.

Maybe his playoff performance pushed him to 2.75, but we're talking about a sub 30 point player here.

I'm guessing 2.25 x 2 or 2.5 x 3 if management pays him for blood spilled along the way.
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Old 05-18-2019, 01:12 PM   #304
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I'm crazy. I think that Bennett has a long arc trajectory to a 40-50 point guy. I just hope the Flames play it out instead of letting move on to another team.
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Old 05-18-2019, 01:21 PM   #305
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Originally Posted by Vinny01 View Post
I could see a team trading a pick in the 20’s for this draft for Bennett. I would want the Flames to steer clear of that. We already have the 26th pick and based on the Flames drafting history there is a much better chance that Bennett improves significantly from where he is now than that pick turning into a better player than Bennett is.

Look at the last 15 years.
Chucko, Pelech, Irving, Niemiz, Erixon, Poirier, Klimchuk
The only 2 NHLers in that time frame were Backlund and Jankowski who took 5+years to make a difference and Jankowski is hardly a difference maker.

I take the chance that Bennett becomes a 50pt winger before the Flames drafting a comparable player that will help this core.
I wasn't really referring to this draft but more so to next season. If you are offered a 1st by a team like the Canes (as example) i think you jump on it and hope they take strides backwards and try and get a 1-15 type pick.

I dont understand why the last 15 ears has much to do with anything though since BT has only been here for 4 and its pretty clear that Button and company are pretty decent at identifying players who have a real shot later in the draft.
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Old 05-18-2019, 01:24 PM   #306
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I'm crazy. I think that Bennett has a long arc trajectory to a 40-50 point guy. I just hope the Flames play it out instead of letting move on to another team.
How long do they wait? And more to the point, what do you pay him while you are waiting? That is really the crux of things here as he needs a new deal right now....it seems pretty straight forward to me, but i have no doubt the Bennett camp sees it much differently.

I think 2.5 X 2 is perfect and im not going any higher unless forced by an offer sheet.

That allows him time to break out into this unlikely 50 point guy so many believe he is, while not hurting the existing pay scale and also being an affordable piece to move should you deem him no longer part of the plan after this upcoming season.
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Old 05-18-2019, 02:00 PM   #307
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I think the baseline is nick ritchie at ~1.7 and the ceiling is Wood at 2.75.

Maybe his playoff performance pushed him to 2.75, but we're talking about a sub 30 point player here.

I'm guessing 2.25 x 2 or 2.5 x 3 if management pays him for blood spilled along the way.
You think he's a fourth liner, you should be demanding they roll him back to $750K
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Old 05-18-2019, 02:41 PM   #308
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High bar: 6 x 4.5
Low bar: 2 x 2.9

My guess: 1 x 3
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Old 05-18-2019, 03:04 PM   #309
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How long do they wait? And more to the point, what do you pay him while you are waiting? That is really the crux of things here as he needs a new deal right now....it seems pretty straight forward to me, but i have no doubt the Bennett camp sees it much differently.

I think 2.5 X 2 is perfect and im not going any higher unless forced by an offer sheet.

That allows him time to break out into this unlikely 50 point guy so many believe he is, while not hurting the existing pay scale and also being an affordable piece to move should you deem him no longer part of the plan after this upcoming season.

They can wait as long as need be. End of the day, where Bennett plays on the depth chart isn't hurting them any. As it has been pointed out already. And if we are honest here Bennett has not really earned a raise beyond current market inflation. But I think 3 years is the minimum deal they have to get him signed to. And regardless of the yearly cap hit. If at any time they do get impatient and trade him, he will be a middle of the road asset to move. Ultimately it's up to Bennett to go out and break his glass ceiling, and I think he can, just going to take a little longer than usual.

I dont know I get the skepticism but he does a lot for this team and really comes alive in crunch time.

Either way, I figure Bennett is a Flame for a few years yet.
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Old 05-18-2019, 03:36 PM   #310
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They can wait as long as need be.

Well...no they cant. At some point you have to make a decision on any player in your organization and ae tey part of things going forward.


Quote:
End of the day, where Bennett plays on the depth chart isn't hurting them any. As it has been pointed out already
.


Welll, and again...no. It has been pointed out, quite clearly, he is a 3rd liner. So that is where he needs to be. Now itsabout how much you pay him, how much you think he gives you in the future, and ultimately is he the best at that spot in the lineup you can have? Slotting is of utmost importance.



Quote:
And if we are honest here Bennett has not really earned a raise beyond current market inflation. But I think 3 years is the minimum deal they have to get him signed to.
3 years is the maximum for me....depending on dollars as always. 3 years gets him to UFA though, so its why i suspect a 2 year deal is what happens

Quote:
And regardless of the yearly cap hit. If at any time they do get impatient and trade him, he will be a middle of the road asset to move. Ultimately it's up to Bennett to go out and break his glass ceiling, and I think he can, just going to take a little longer than usual.
It cant just be "regardless of the cap hit"...thats how teams get into real trouble putting together complete rosters. Cap hit is becoming just about as big a part of contracts for the role and lower end players as their abilities are.

Its just no way to run things.

Quote:
Either way, I figure Bennett is a Flame for a few years yet.
I hope he is a Flame for life. I love his style of play and it is something this team lacks as it is.

But for that to happen 1 of 2 things needs to happen.

He is what he is and has to be paid that way at a bit higher than he makes now which is what the 2-2.75 represents in most of the posts previous to this

or

He actually does take the next step and produces offensively and gets paid more....but cant be paid for doing so until he actually shows he can do it. Hence the short term of 2 years right now.

Also if he has to be part of a package that actually upgrades the role he is expected to play in managements mind, then that has to be part of things as well.

Is that egregious in any way?
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Old 05-18-2019, 06:22 PM   #311
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You think he's a fourth liner, you should be demanding they roll him back to $750K
lol
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Old 05-18-2019, 07:08 PM   #312
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So some comparables might be

Athanasiou who signed for 3mx2 deal at 23 after seasons of 29 and 33 points.

Zack Hyman signed for 2.25x4 after a 28 point season and solid first round playoff series.

Bjorkstrand signed 2.5x3 after a 40 point breakout season at 22.

Frank Vatrano just signed for 2.53 after scoring 24 goals this year.

Onderj Kase signed for 2.6 after scoring 20g/18a.

Faksa signed 3 years ago for 2.2 after scoring 33 points.

Devin Shore signed 2.3 after a 32 point season.

Burakovsky signed for 3mx2 after a 35 point season.

Marcus Foligno signed for 2.875 after scoring 23 points.

Based on this list of comparables it wouldn't shock me if Bennett actually went with term over short term AAV.

4 year contract looking more likely in my opinion.
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Old 05-18-2019, 07:45 PM   #313
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^ excellent post. Think Hyman is another great comparable
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Old 05-19-2019, 12:06 AM   #314
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So some comparables might be

Athanasiou who signed for 3mx2 deal at 23 after seasons of 29 and 33 points.

Zack Hyman signed for 2.25x4 after a 28 point season and solid first round playoff series.

Bjorkstrand signed 2.5x3 after a 40 point breakout season at 22.

Frank Vatrano just signed for 2.53 after scoring 24 goals this year.

Onderj Kase signed for 2.6 after scoring 20g/18a.

Faksa signed 3 years ago for 2.2 after scoring 33 points.

Devin Shore signed 2.3 after a 32 point season.

Burakovsky signed for 3mx2 after a 35 point season.

Marcus Foligno signed for 2.875 after scoring 23 points.

Based on this list of comparables it wouldn't shock me if Bennett actually went with term over short term AAV.

4 year contract looking more likely in my opinion.
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2.75 x 4 years. Pay the little extra to get an extra year or two.
Pretty much aligns with what I think will happen.
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Old 05-19-2019, 01:22 PM   #315
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So some comparables might be

Athanasiou who signed for 3mx2 deal at 23 after seasons of 29 and 33 points.

Zack Hyman signed for 2.25x4 after a 28 point season and solid first round playoff series.

Bjorkstrand signed 2.5x3 after a 40 point breakout season at 22.

Frank Vatrano just signed for 2.53 after scoring 24 goals this year.

Onderj Kase signed for 2.6 after scoring 20g/18a.

Faksa signed 3 years ago for 2.2 after scoring 33 points.

Devin Shore signed 2.3 after a 32 point season.

Burakovsky signed for 3mx2 after a 35 point season.

Marcus Foligno signed for 2.875 after scoring 23 points.

Based on this list of comparables it wouldn't shock me if Bennett actually went with term over short term AAV.

4 year contract looking more likely in my opinion.


I guess time will tell, as I think it’s extremely unlikely Bennett signs for more than 2 years, unless Calgary pays way more than everyone thinks is reasonable.


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Old 05-19-2019, 02:43 PM   #316
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If they believe he's going to pop (not saying they do), then you go term and pay a bit more and expect to be rewarded.

I think the Flames did this with Hanifin and Linholm and it's off to a good start.

Monahan and Gaudreau look like bargains, but that was a market correction and good fortune.

If they don't, then play hard ball and keep him on show me contracts.
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Old 05-20-2019, 03:51 AM   #317
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I’d like some term, 3-5 years.

I still think he will evolve in to a solid, gritty and two way 40p player. He hasn’t got the highest on ice IQ, but it’s good enough and more experience will help him get all the tools together.

Giving him 3m for 4-5 years isn’t going to break the cap structure.
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Old 05-20-2019, 11:41 AM   #318
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Kent Wilson with a good article about Bennett at the Athletic today. Some interesting stats and charts as usual from Kent. My takeaway from his article is that Sam is exactly what most are saying here - a bottom 6 player. Perhaps a very good bottom 6 player but not more. When playing with Bennett, guys like Jankowski, Czarnik, Neal and Ryan saw an increase to their possession numbers. On the flip side, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Monahan and Lindholm all saw their CF% drop and in Monahan and Gaudreau's case, it dropped significantly. Smaller sample size, though.

This is not to say that Bennett can't fill in on the top lines when needed but in terms of where he looks to fit the best, where he can actually drive the play, I'd say he should probably live on the 3rd line with spot duty on other lines as required.

https://theathletic.com/984048/2019/...the-next-step/
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Old 05-20-2019, 11:47 AM   #319
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I’d like some term, 3-5 years.

I still think he will evolve in to a solid, gritty and two way 40p player. He hasn’t got the highest on ice IQ, but it’s good enough and more experience will help him get all the tools together.

Giving him 3m for 4-5 years isn’t going to break the cap structure.


There is just no reasonable reason Bennett does this. It would be him betting against himself.


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Old 05-20-2019, 11:49 AM   #320
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I think 2.5M-3M/3yr is about what he'll seek and what he'll get.
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