Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[GGG]

http://alternativeenergy.procon.org/...-1-31-2014.pdf

This is a link to the state department review of keystone XL. Page 40 compared pipeline vs rail transport And pipeline vs rail/tanker to Texas.

Also look at spill volumes per year on page 41

[CaptainCrunch]

Am I reading page 40 right that pipelines have a much lower GHG emission MTCO/year? both over road and rail by between 27 and 41%?

And the spill possibilities for pipelines were dramatically less?

Wow. no wonder the State department weren't friends of Obama.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Am I reading page 40 right that pipelines have a much lower GHG emission MTCO/year? both over road and rail by between 27 and 41%?

And the spill possibilities for pipelines were dramatically less?

Wow. no wonder the State department weren't friends of Obama.

Correct. Pipelines are a safer, more energy efficient and greener way of transporting oil from point A to point B.

Hey, if there's one silver lining in this crash is that it seems to have pushed the pipeline conversation into the national conversation. It's nice seeing it on front pages, even if it isn't all positive (e.g. the Montreal mayor).

[puckedoff]

Can't wait for the upstream/downstream GHG review of the new aircraft Bombardier plans to build, prior to receiving their bailout funds.

I would have to think a plane burns more fuel than a peice of steel underground, no?

[para transit fellow]

Originally Posted by puckedoff

Can't wait for the upstream/downstream GHG review of the new aircraft Bombardier plans to build, prior to receiving their bailout funds.

I would have to think a plane burns more fuel than a peice of steel underground, no?

I am not seeing a strong comparison here.

Are we going to use the pipeline to travel to Montreal???

(since the pipeline is single direction.. how do we get back home?)

[karl262]

Bombardier should apply for the social licence right away.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Why? If it's going through their territory then they have every right to be consulted on it in a meaningful manner. Putting a time constraint on it and planning to ram it through regardless of their concerns isn't meaningful consultation. The narrative that we have the right to demand FN communities accept our pipelines is completely colonialist.

I just wanted to touch on this point from a few pages back, because this is sort of my first chance at it, but I really think this is an often overlooked and huge problem facing the nation due to this pipeline debate.

I'm going to tread carefully here, due to my line of work, and I'm going to try to be as moderate and fair as possible in my comments based on my experience. But First Nations' consultation in BC has become a very difficult if not impossible task for pipelines. This would be because of the lack of treaties in BC causing claims on traditional territory that may not be anywhere remotely close to where a FN group is. Basically, if a pipeline has to go across the province to the coast (LNG facility), there's a chance every FN group will demand consultation. It's pretty disingenuous. What results strikingly resembles extortion of both producers and pipeline companies, as ongoing "consultations" start to unravel and the truth comes out for many FN groups simply looking for cash payments when not truly warranted. If payments aren't made, projects are held up.

Now, of course, there are some bands that have legitimate consultation requirements. Those groups who's lands are actually impacted by the pipeline, not some group living over 1,000km away but claiming that 2,000 years ago their ancestors may have walked around where the pipeline may go. No government is willing to address this very delicate issue because ultimately it would end up in the supreme court. I recall hearing some pretty crazy stories from some folks that worked on some larger BC pipeline projects. Consultation ended up being around 16 bands and taking 5-6 years, and it still wasn't resolved. There also was the issue that one band didn't like the other and therefore would never agree to a project that band supported, and vice versa.

How is any business supposed to get done (not even efficiently, just done in general) with that kind of red tape, bureaucracy and hold ups? A few years ago, so much East Asian capital was invested in the WCSB. The FN consultation process and environmental regulatory regime in BC has effectively blocked that entire province from shipping hydrocarbons anywhere else in the world. And for what? What are we REALLY trying to achieve here? What are the bands trying to achieve? Now all that Asian capital is drying up and as has been mentioned by several experts over the last couple years, the window for the Canadian LNG business is slowly but surely closing and a massive economic benefit to BC likely lost. There are some pretty disappointed international investors now who realize that there's zero chance for egress off the western Canadian coast. That might not be bad, but that might not be good either. This does impact Canada's reputation world wide.

It's all about money, at the end of the day, and the reality is that many bands were starting to get funded by international interests to hold up Canada because Canada was ahead of the game originally. FN bands were being paid to block the pipelines and projects. Now look at Oregon, and the US, and we see that indeed their LNG projects are on pace or ahead of ours.

So in the end, was it really about "consultation"? Or was it about politics, competition, and international access to the LNG market and capitalizing on that market?

[Resolute 14]

It was always about stifling Canadian interests in favour of American. The FNs became willing puppets for those American interests.

[Izzle]

Any predictions for the Royalty Review to be released today?

I honestly dont know what to expect in terms of specifics. But, I have a feeling that its going to be 'book cover' good, but get down to the nitty-gritty, its still going to be a slap in the face of the O&G industry.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Izzle

Any predictions for the Royalty Review to be released today?

I honestly dont know what to expect in terms of specifics. But, I have a feeling that its going to be 'book cover' good, but get down to the nitty-gritty, its still going to be a slap in the face of the O&G industry.

If it wasn't politicized the group doing will have a plan to maximize revenue for Albertans with good understaning of investment drivers.

I fear that these delays were the NDP not liking the results and sending in back to be "fixed"

[CampbellsTransgressions]

Or they delays were to adjust for the December oil dip

[CaptainCrunch]

Well today will either allow the NDP to breath, and get out of the shadows a little bit.

Or it will be a blood bath.

[foshizzle11]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Well today will either allow the NDP to breath, and get out of the shadows a little bit.

Or it will be a blood bath.

I am fully predicting a blood bath. Pitch forks, mullets and sweat pants in Edmonton this afternoon.

[heep223]

I think it will be simplified but with no major changes. After they've been flapping their gums about Albertans not getting their fair share and all that, after actually looking at the royalty structure they've come to realize that for the most part it provides significant benefit to Albertans already.

The removal of this uncertainty on its own will be positive.

[IliketoPuck]

I'm cautiously optimistic that it will be a reasonable outcome.

Tertzakian is a very experienced and intelligent man, his inclusion on this panel gives me hope.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Optimism? I sense optimism? I wish I could join you. I guess we'll see soon.

[Buster]

when is the announcement?

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by GGG

If it wasn't politicized the group doing will have a plan to maximize revenue for Albertans with good understaning of investment drivers.

I fear that these delays were the NDP not liking the results and sending in back to be "fixed"

It has to become obvious to even the most hard core ideologue that Oil isn't a golden cow anymore. Sure even a year ago some people were rubbing their hands thinking the Oil companies while down were still doing very well.

If she has seen what she has, and ignores it to juice a down and out industry, she can enjoy losing the province. The fallout would all but ensure the NDP will go back to the Edmonton party.

Although I think she started out idealistic, I think even she has seen the light. My guess is it actually reduces royalties at the low end and cranks at the higher end.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by buster

when is the announcement?

11:00

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Optimism? I sense optimism? I wish I could join you. I guess we'll see soon.

This is Notley's Waterloo. If she drops the ball, the NDP won't recover.

If the review is released and it is clear that it is thoughtful and fair, then the NDP have a chance at slowing down the negative momentum they've been building up.