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Old 01-20-2022, 07:13 PM   #3381
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Hopefully, the prices continue trending down for better valuations.
From an investment perspective why do you want this?
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Old 01-20-2022, 07:17 PM   #3382
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From an investment perspective why do you want this?
I won't speak for the person you quoted, but my view would be what the collective "we" know is how to value a company based on earnings. With all the easy money injected into the market, it's distorted those traditional tools to evaluate the performance of companies and their stocks.

Nothing has happened in the past two years to justify that a re-rate of the S&P 500 that would make a P/E ratio of 50x be the new normal.
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Old 01-20-2022, 07:22 PM   #3383
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This guy's predicting a 50% S&P crash.

Jeremy Grantham, the legendary investor who has predicted the last three market bubbles, foresees the S&P 500 crashing almost 50% after the fourth "superbubble" the US has ever seen bursts — even with multiple efforts underway to prevent it.

His advice to investors?

Avoid US equities, invest in value stocks of emerging markets and several cheaper developed countries such as Japan. Plus, have some cash for flexibility, as well as a little gold and silver.
And as for crypto, that asset class leaves him "increasingly feeling like the boy watching the naked emperor passing in procession," he said.


https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-gmo-50-2022-1
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Old 01-20-2022, 07:46 PM   #3384
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From an investment perspective why do you want this?

Cash heavy, probably.
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Old 01-20-2022, 09:54 PM   #3385
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I think people need to be careful with that kind of comparison though. It depends on your risk tolerance, and risk-adjusted return, not purely “did you beat the market?”

I also think that in Canada we have a somewhat unique challenge in that regard. Specifically, which market? Is the goal to beat the TSX?
I've never managed other people's money except as a trader for extremely sophisticated clients. But every time I did so we discussed what the benchmark was in advance. I've turned down someone who wanted a low volatility merger arb strategy that wanted to benchmark it to the S&P500, because that's completely unreasonable.

If the manager and a client aren't using the same benchmark that seems 100% likely to result in conflict/disappointment.
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Old 01-20-2022, 09:55 PM   #3386
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From an investment perspective why do you want this?
I think things are quite expensive right now which will reduce returns. I don’t plan to use my savings for about 15 years so I’d like to accumulate shares at better valuations. If I needed the money now, I’d hate a market decline.
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Old 01-20-2022, 10:17 PM   #3387
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Cash heavy, probably.
No, I have about 8% sitting in cash which isn’t ideal but dividends and contributions have been accumulating for awhile now. Like another poster said regarding PE ratios of say 50, that is not a company I want to buy just as I wouldn't buy a private company where it would take 40 or 50 years of earnings to get my initial investment back. I plan to invest some capital soon to bring my cash down to ~ 5% and the current pullback is making that more attractive.


Regarding Jeremy Grantham, he has been talking about a crash for years. Sometime he will be right.
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Old 01-20-2022, 10:36 PM   #3388
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I've never managed other people's money except as a trader for extremely sophisticated clients. But every time I did so we discussed what the benchmark was in advance. I've turned down someone who wanted a low volatility merger arb strategy that wanted to benchmark it to the S&P500, because that's completely unreasonable.

If the manager and a client aren't using the same benchmark that seems 100% likely to result in conflict/disappointment.
Yeah, and that’s definitely the case. But all the “beat the market” talk is largely ignoring that. I’ve seen largely Canadian mutual funds compare themselves to the TSX when they’re ~40% US stocks and gleefully showing a graph about their outperformance. It cuts both ways, for sure. Improper benchmarks are just like any other chart crime, only more difficult to spot because the reader doesn’t always have the information.
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Old 01-21-2022, 12:36 PM   #3389
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Bought LSPD @ 87.5... am I ####ed?
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Old 01-21-2022, 03:39 PM   #3390
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Maybe. Either sell and be happy with the scraps or hold hold and hold some more.
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Old 01-21-2022, 04:03 PM   #3391
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Weird twilight zone where the market is tanking but energy stocks are strong. Feels like energy and dividends are the safest stocks at the moment.
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Old 01-21-2022, 05:12 PM   #3392
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$85 oil. Might as well pile it all into energy now.
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Old 01-21-2022, 07:40 PM   #3393
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I'm working for free for the rest of the month.

I literally lost an entire paycheque in the market today.

I wish I was in risky stuff like crypto but I'm far more basic than that.
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Old 01-21-2022, 08:04 PM   #3394
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$85 oil. Might as well pile it all into energy now.
I’m going all in on subway.
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Old 01-21-2022, 08:38 PM   #3395
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I'm working for free for the rest of the month.

I literally lost an entire paycheque in the market today.

I wish I was in risky stuff like crypto but I'm far more basic than that.

Same - even worse over the course of a week or so. I strictly hold:
BNS
BMO
TD
CBDT (garbage)
AMZN


Amazon in particular I've taken large hits on but none have gone unscathed. Rough. I have about 50% cash, and suspect there may be a little bit more hurt coming, but I believe in the above aside from CBDT. Thank goodness I took my tax loss on LSPD and PATH at year end because those have sunk. I don't think the markets are particularly rationale right now, as suddenly people don't come to these rationalizations that things ran up too far. Seems to be little bit more panic each day. Frankly I'm shocked bank stocks have taken a hit considering they'll be doing better in a higher interest rate market. So odd.
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Old 01-21-2022, 08:52 PM   #3396
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I have trouble seeing the likes of Apple and Amazon as growth stocks how high can a company valuation go? The massive growth is already built in.
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Old 01-21-2022, 08:56 PM   #3397
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Same - even worse over the course of a week or so. I strictly hold:
BNS
BMO
TD
CBDT (garbage)
AMZN


Amazon in particular I've taken large hits on but none have gone unscathed. Rough. I have about 50% cash, and suspect there may be a little bit more hurt coming, but I believe in the above aside from CBDT. Thank goodness I took my tax loss on LSPD and PATH at year end because those have sunk. I don't think the markets are particularly rationale right now, as suddenly people don't come to these rationalizations that things ran up too far. Seems to be little bit more panic each day. Frankly I'm shocked bank stocks have taken a hit considering they'll be doing better in a higher interest rate market. So odd.
Woah - that's a huge amount of cash - market crash would be a jackpot for you right now

I just last week finished paying down the margin debt I accumulated in 2020
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Old 01-21-2022, 09:10 PM   #3398
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Originally Posted by fleury View Post
Same - even worse over the course of a week or so. I strictly hold:
BNS
BMO
TD
CBDT (garbage)
AMZN


Amazon in particular I've taken large hits on but none have gone unscathed. Rough. I have about 50% cash, and suspect there may be a little bit more hurt coming, but I believe in the above aside from CBDT. Thank goodness I took my tax loss on LSPD and PATH at year end because those have sunk. I don't think the markets are particularly rationale right now, as suddenly people don't come to these rationalizations that things ran up too far. Seems to be little bit more panic each day. Frankly I'm shocked bank stocks have taken a hit considering they'll be doing better in a higher interest rate market. So odd.
Depending on how long you’ve held and what you bought for, the Canadian banks probably have you in a profitable position. Amazon has been dead money since basically August 2020, but this week and today was not good for them.
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Old 01-21-2022, 09:22 PM   #3399
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A correction is inevitable. Don’t panic sell. I don’t care if my ETFs go down 50% because they’ll eventually come back up, whether it’s 6 months, 2 years or 5 years. Just set it and forget it.
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Old 01-22-2022, 06:22 PM   #3400
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Originally Posted by fleury View Post
Same - even worse over the course of a week or so. I strictly hold:
BNS
BMO
TD
CBDT (garbage)
AMZN


Amazon in particular I've taken large hits on but none have gone unscathed. Rough. I have about 50% cash, and suspect there may be a little bit more hurt coming, but I believe in the above aside from CBDT. Thank goodness I took my tax loss on LSPD and PATH at year end because those have sunk. I don't think the markets are particularly rationale right now, as suddenly people don't come to these rationalizations that things ran up too far. Seems to be little bit more panic each day. Frankly I'm shocked bank stocks have taken a hit considering they'll be doing better in a higher interest rate market. So odd.
Things don't go straight up, they ebb and flow. Higher interest rates MAY be good for the banks, but they may also be disaster (if they result in significant bankruptcies). Regardless, stock prices won't just keep going up and up and up without dips.

And the banks just enjoyed about a 15% jump in about a month. This 'sell-off' has brought us all the back down to prices not seen since about Jan 12th!

What exactly are you expecting?
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