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Old 09-12-2019, 06:09 PM   #1
DeluxeMoustache
 
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Default Salary cap and top contracts (year over year)

We all know that everyone is watching the pack of RFAs. I know that everyone is talking about market value for top talent.

I thought it would be interesting to look at how we got here, and the impact of bad GMs like Chiarelli and Kyle Dumbass in breaking the RFA market.

Here is a table that shows, by year, salary cap, the average of the top 10 contracts in the NHL, and the change year over year. These generally paced close to one another until the last 2 seasons.


Year - Cap - Avg top 10 - YOY Cap - YOY Top 10
2013 - 64.3 / 8.28
2014 - 69 / 8.66 / +7.3% / +4.6%
2015 - 71.4 / 9.14 / +3.5% / +5.5%
2016 - 73 / 9.34 / +2.2% / +2.2%
2017 - 75 / 9.44 / +2.7% / +1.1 %
2018 - 79.5 / 10.4 / +6% / +10.5 %
2019 - 81.5 / 11.1 / +2.5% / +6.3%



2013 - top 10 contracts at the time
Ovechkin 9.538
Crosby 8.7
Malkin 8.7
Perry 8.625
Getzlaf 8.25
Staal 8.25
Weber 7.857
Nash 7.8
Parise 7.538
Suter 7.538

New contracts by year in top 10

2014 -
Malkin 9.5
Subban 9
Lundqvist 8.5
Giroux 8.275
Kessel 8

2015 -
Toews 10.5
Kane 10.5

2016 -
Kopitar 10
Stamkos 8.5

2017 -
Benn 9.5

2018 -
McDavid 12.5
Tavares 11
Price 10.5
Nylander 10.2 (because of pro rating)
Eichel 10

2019 -
Panarin 11.642
Matthews 11.634
Karlsson 11.5
Doughty 11


You can see that the growth in top salaries is outpacing the growth in the cap the last 2 years. I am sure that a lot of players are seeing these salaries and getting excited. But as the new RFA class all try to get slotted in there, that means less money for the middle and lower classes.

The end result of this is effectively the redistribution of wealth. HRR is fixed, and escrow will distribute so that the salaries end up being the agreed upon amount of HRR .

The crop of RFAs that are negotiating concurrently to maximize their own personal incomes are taking money away from all of their teammates.

It is funny because you hear Captain serious getting all hot and bothered about how escrow means contracts arenít honoured. Yet the agents of top players are pushing for contracts that are clearly outpacing HRR and cap growth.

I wonder how much of this the players actually consider as they watch the RFA standoffs.
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Old 09-12-2019, 06:29 PM   #2
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I guess what I was thinking as well is how many of these contracts, in hindsight, are good contracts.

10.5 set the bar for the NHL, first contracts higher than Ovechkin. For each of Toews and Kane was it good, as a reward, or did it really limit Chicago’s competitiveness?
Was McJesus worth spending $2 million more than players who had shown they have what it takes to win s Cup? As a RFA?!?
Now you have point per game players who have accomplished nothing slotting in around 10-11. As RFAs (ex. Matthews, Eichel).
Does that make sense?
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Old 09-12-2019, 06:34 PM   #3
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I think it was in the Athletic that I read that NHL players might be starting to learn from other sports by sighing short-term deals in order to keep cashing in. McDavid will be underpaid soon, and in the meantime Matthews is lined up nicely to hit UFA.



Signing one or two year deals is riskier, but for the players, it's probably worth it - or at least the top end guys.
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Old 09-12-2019, 06:34 PM   #4
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Most of the top paid players a few years ago had accomplished something. Cups, major awards, etc.

This new class of RFA's want to get paid the big bucks but haven't won anything yet.
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Old 09-12-2019, 06:38 PM   #5
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Quote:
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...2017 -
Benn 9.5...
I think Draisaitl is missing, no? I see him listed as the #10 highest cap-hit @ $8.5 m in 2017 when he signed his extension.

Edmonton is no good.
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Old 09-12-2019, 06:41 PM   #6
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I think Draisaitl is missing, no? I see him listed as the #10 highest cap-hit @ $8.5 m in 2017 when he signed his extension.

Edmonton is no good.
Tied w/ Stamkos and Lundqvist at that point, I think. I just picked one of the 10 slot guys in a given year

Probably should have selected him to reinforce that Edmonton is no good
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Old 09-12-2019, 08:01 PM   #7
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Would be a lot easier to show top contracts as % of cap:

2013 - 12.9%
2014 - 12.9%
2015 - 12.8%
2016 - 12.8%
2017 - 12.6%
2018 - 13.1%
2019 - 13.6%
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Old 09-13-2019, 08:35 AM   #8
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Tied w/ Stamkos and Lundqvist at that point, I think. I just picked one of the 10 slot guys in a given year

Probably should have selected him to reinforce that Edmonton is no good
You wouldnít take Drai at 8.5?
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Old 09-13-2019, 08:57 AM   #9
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You wouldnít take Drai at 8.5?
Itís interesting. I will say that it is not among the more controversial contracts in terms of % of cap, being only 10.6%

A lot of the contracts up there are over 11.6%

Now compared to the great contracts Tre has with Gaudreau, Monahan and Lindholm, of course I take those any day of the week. Obviously not all GMs are equal !
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Old 09-13-2019, 09:01 AM   #10
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You wouldnít take Drai at 8.5?
Itís hard to say since we have no idea what Draisaitl is away from his McHappy Meal(ticket). Is he still a 90-point winger? Is he a centre? I am betting not on both accounts.


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Old 09-13-2019, 09:36 AM   #11
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Whether Drai's contract seems good now or not means nothing. At the time of signing his peers, who were/are better than him, were signing in the 6-7M range. MacKinnon, Gaudreau, Pastrnak, etc were decent deals then Edm overpays badly and inflates the market as usual. They have a long history of screwing up the RFA process with all the 6x6's and the ridiculous offer sheets to Penner and Vanek. Tor is just as much to blame, after the fact, with the contracts to Nylander and Matthews.
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Old 09-13-2019, 09:41 AM   #12
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Isn't Nylanders just pro-rated for that one season? Should you not put the AAV their for the entire contract instead?
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:06 AM   #13
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Isn't Nylanders just pro-rated for that one season? Should you not put the AAV their for the entire contract instead?
Yeah thatís the only outlier, and why I noted it. There were other 10 M cap hits that year so it doesnít make a big difference
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:22 AM   #14
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Whether Drai's contract seems good now or not means nothing. At the time of signing his peers, who were/are better than him, were signing in the 6-7M range. MacKinnon, Gaudreau, Pastrnak, etc were decent deals then Edm overpays badly and inflates the market as usual. They have a long history of screwing up the RFA process with all the 6x6's and the ridiculous offer sheets to Penner and Vanek. Tor is just as much to blame, after the fact, with the contracts to Nylander and Matthews.
I donít buy it. Mackinnon and Gaudreau were signed the year before Gaudreau for 6 years and Nate for 7. So shorter terms and less UFA years.

Pastrnak signed around the same time for 2 years less and had a close season but was still less productive then Drai. Again oilers got 2 more UFA years.
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:31 AM   #15
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I donít buy it. Mackinnon and Gaudreau were signed the year before Gaudreau for 6 years and Nate for 7. So shorter terms and less UFA years.

Pastrnak signed around the same time for 2 years less and had a close season but was still less productive then Drai. Again oilers got 2 more UFA years.
Gaudreau and Mackinnon were signed the previous year all right. And therefore should have been the precedent the Oilers were using. I don't recall any significant contracts between those and Draisaitl's.

Pasternak and Draisaitl had virtually identical years before they signed. Draisaitl signed first. Pasternak then signed for way less and then outproduced Draisaitl the next year. Plus he's good defensively. And a RH RW which is not exactly a common commodity.

The only reason Draisaitl even looks like an OK signing is McDavid. Without that factor, he's what he was when he signed - a 70ish point guy. He's paid like a centre and plays LH LW, which is not a rare position at all. He's due for a huge regression this year.
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Old 09-13-2019, 03:42 PM   #16
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I donít buy it. Mackinnon and Gaudreau were signed the year before Gaudreau for 6 years and Nate for 7. So shorter terms and less UFA years.

Pastrnak signed around the same time for 2 years less and had a close season but was still less productive then Drai. Again oilers got 2 more UFA years.
There is a thread from the signing that can be bumped. At the time, there were comparisons made with all of those guys - Gaudreau, MacKinnon, Scheifele, etc., comparing their production and their contracts. It was a surprisingly linear and well-proportioned list. With one major outlier - Draisitl was at least $1M above the line.

The fast that the market has since caught up to him (barely), does not change the fact that his contract was way too much.
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Old 09-13-2019, 08:13 PM   #17
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The fast that the market has since caught up to him (barely), does not change the fact that his contract was way too much.
And it can be argued that the market went up because of contracts like his. Vastly overpaying for future potential, that's the oiler way. Sometimes the bean grows a stalk, sometime the bean doesn't, derp.
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:34 PM   #18
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There is a thread from the signing that can be bumped. At the time, there were comparisons made with all of those guys - Gaudreau, MacKinnon, Scheifele, etc., comparing their production and their contracts. It was a surprisingly linear and well-proportioned list. With one major outlier - Draisitl was at least $1M above the line.

The fast that the market has since caught up to him (barely), does not change the fact that his contract was way too much.
Again those guys signed the year before, then the cap went up, so the percentage wasnít as bad. And he signed for 2 extra UFA years then them that counts for something
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Old 09-13-2019, 11:17 PM   #19
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Again those guys signed the year before, then the cap went up, so the percentage wasnít as bad. And he signed for 2 extra UFA years then them that counts for something
The comparisons were pretty straight-forward, and the cap didn't jump enough to justify his contract being that much higher.

All that is needed to be said is that Draisaitl's contract doesn't look bad now. Meanwhile, all those other players are absolute steals now.
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Old 09-14-2019, 12:50 PM   #20
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Here is a bit more detail around the contracts that were in the top 10 AAV as of 2013 (current CBA), (plus Ovechkin and Crosby, who had some quite long contracts coming in to the renegotiated CBA - also Weber, Parise and Suter with super long terms), plus those added between then and now, that made it in to the top 10 contracts at the given year.

They are sorted by % of cap at the time of signing. For some, I have made a little comment about context / what the player had accomplished prior to signing.

Some of these contracts were reasonable at the time, some of them set new bars with good reason, some raised the bar with no good reason, and some are head scratching.

There were a couple of second contracts for RFAs who were very special players (Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin), however these were signed prior to 2013.

(Any way I look at this, at the end of the day, Chiarelli and Dubas are idiots. Dubas actually seems to have raised the bar there for sure)


Player ___ Salary Year _ Cap __ %ofCap Pos Age Term Comment
Ovechkin___9.538_ 2008 _ 56.7 _ 16.8% _ W _ 23 _ 13 _ 3 seasons averaging 54 goals, 102 points
McDavid____12.5__ 2018 _ 79.5 _ 15.7% _ C _ 21 _ 8 _ Signed extension at 20 before ELC lapsed. Lots of points?
Crosby_____8.7___ 2008 _ 56.7 _ 15.3% _ C _ 21 _ 5 _ Season >1.5 PPG, Cup final
Malkin_____8.7___ 2009 _ 56.8 _ 15.3% _ C _ 23 _ 5 _ 2 seasons > 100 points, SCF, Cup
Toews______10.5__ 2015 _ 71.4 _ 14.7% _ C _ 27 _ 8 _ 3 cups
Kane_______10.5__ 2015 _ 71.4 _ 14.7% _ W _ 26 _ 8 _ 3 cups
Panarin____11.642 2019 _ 81.5 _ 14.3% _ W _ 27 _ 8 _ UFA - point per game player career + up year
Matthews___11.634 2019 _ 81.5 _ 14.3% _ C _ 21 _ 5 _ RFA - career ~point per game center, 40 goal scorer
Karlsson___11.5__ 2019 _ 81.5 _ 14.1% _ D _ 29 _ 8 _ Career .8 point per game defenseman, 2 Norris
Tavares____11____ 2018 _ 79.5 _ 13.8% _ C _ 27 _ 7 _ Generally a point per game player (~35G/45A ballpark)
Malkin_____9.5___ 2014 _ 69.0__ 13.8% _ C _ 28 _ 8 _ 3 seasons > 100 points, cups
Kopitar____10____ 2016 _ 73.0__ 13.7% _ C _ 28 _ 8 _ 2014 cup
Crosby_____8.7___ 2013 _ 64.3 _ 13.5% _ C _ 26 _ 12 _ best all around player in the game
Doughty____11____ 2019 _ 81.5 _ 13.5% _ D _ 28 _ 8 _ 45-60 point D man, 2014 Stanley cup, 2016 Norris.
Marner_____10.893 2019 _ 81.5 _ 13.4% _ W _ 22 _ 6
Perry______8.625_ 2013 _ 64.3 _ 13.4% _ W _ 28 _ 8 _ Cup in 2007, 50 goals in the past
Price______10.5__ 2018 _ 79.5 _ 13.2% _ G _ 29 _ 8
Subban_____9_____ 2014 _ 69.0__ 13.0% _ D _ 25 _ 8 _ 2013 Norris, had a season w. 38 pts in 42 GP
Getzlaf____8.25__ 2013 _ 64.3 _ 12.8% _ C _ 28 _ 8 _ 1.1 PPG, 2007 cup
Staal______8.25__ 2010 _ 64.3 _ 12.8% _ C _ 28 _ 7 _ ~ppg player
Benn_______9.5___ 2017 _ 75.0__ 12.7% _ W _ 27 _ 8 _ ~35-40 G, PPG
Eichel_____10____ 2018 _ 79.5 _ 12.6% _ C _ 20 _ 8 _ Point per game player around 20 yrs old
Lundqvist__8.5___ 2014 _ 69.0__ 12.3% _ G _ 32 _ 7
Weber______7.857_ 2013 _ 64.3 _ 12.2% _ D _ 27 _ 14 _ 4 yrs @ 50 pt pace, barely lost norris to lidstrom, finalist again
Nash_______7.8___ 2011 _ 64.3 _ 12.1% _ W _ 26 _ 8 _ Several consecutive 30 goal seasons
Giroux_____8.275_ 2014 _ 69.0__ 12.0% _ C _ 26 _ 8 _ 3 yrs >1 PPG, SCF 09-10, >PPG in playoffs
Parise_____7.538_ 2013 _ 64.3 _ 11.7% _ W _ 29 _ 13 _ 2 seasons > 1 ppg, 5 x30 goal seasons
Suter______7.538_ 2013 _ 64.3 _ 11.7% _ D _ 27 _ 13 _ Solid 45 point D man
Stamkos____8.5___ 2016 _ 73.0__ 11.6% _ W _ 26 _ 8 _ several years 50 goal pace
Kessel_____8_____ 2014 _ 69.0__ 11.6% _ W _ 26 _ 8 _ 6 yrs above 35 g pace, 3 yrs ppg

Last edited by DeluxeMoustache; 09-14-2019 at 12:52 PM.
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