Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[Shazam]

Somebody should really do a beta analysis on goalies.

Maybe Kent "I know or a thing or two about stats" Wilson.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

If you just use the last twelve games and ignore what the players have done over a much larger sample size then they’re basically the same player.

That’s his take in every thread. It’s total brain soup.

LOL.....

The team is 8th overall in GAA for the SEASON.

Brain soup indeed.

hahaha...that made me laugh.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by zamler

How many games into the season before we know who the starter is?

This is actually a very good question.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It's not exactly ideal that no true starter has emerged. Sometimes teams switch starters mid stream in the playoffs but they don't usually switch back and forth with much success IMO.

You'd rather have a goalie who you know can shrug off a loss or bad outing and follow it up with something better.

The last 4 SC winners all used 2 goalies during the playoffs IIRC.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by Kasi

I think people should realize that average goaltending does not mean always getting avg GAA and save percentage. It means averaging to that. Which Smith hasn’t done when taking while season into account. But since November his numbers have been serviceable. But yes he’s had stinkers. Every goalie does. Just look at our two division rivals. Martin Jones has had as many games where he’s lost a game similar to Smith. Even Fleury with his superior numbers has had his share of stinkers (he has 7 shutouts but overall middle of the pack numbers). Same with Hellebucyk.

This hypothetical goaltender that is average and has no variance doesn’t exist. The closest there probably is right now is the Lightning/Bruins/Islanders tandems but even they have bad games. So bad games will happen like last night. It sucks, but no more for us than it does for San Jose when Jones ####s the bed. The thing that matters more is just overall numbers over a large sample size. And that shows that our two goalies for a 3 month period have both been slightly below average goaltenders. I don’t think there was any goalie on the trade market that would have been a meaningful upgrade at a reasonable price. None of the ones available were long term solutions which likely weighed into the costs of acquiring them. Obviously it needs to be addressed in the off-season since with the talent here we should be capable of supporting a goalie with “good” average numbers. Maybe Rittich can be that guy eventually but he isn’t there now.

I just wish the forum would freak out a bit less over a bad start. Every goalie has them, even goalies much better than the 2 we have. It’s the overall trends that matter and I hope both of ours stay positive and that Smith bounces back from last night.

The problem is that the goals Smiths let in are often visibly terrible. When he’s off there’s no turning back. When he lets in one bad goal he rarely has a flawless game after it occurs. This is the last type of goalie you want to go into the playoffs with. Especially being so damn poor on home ice like Smith is. Rittich isn’t a perfect goalie but the goals he lets in are far less infuriating than the ones smith lets in, and are far less back breaking. Smith seems to let in these goals at such awful times in the games as well and so often he does it on home ice. The times Rittich has let in a stinker he seems to respond much better than Smith. With Smith everything goes to #### when he lets in a bad goal. I’ve never seen a goalie on a great team get as rattled as Smith does.


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[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by transplant99

LOL.....

The team is 8th overall in GAA for the SEASON.

Brain soup indeed.

hahaha...that made me laugh.

Oh yah, Mike Smith has been a major contributor to that, given that his GAA is literally higher than the teams average GAA. Ya, brain soup was pretty apt.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Beninho

The problem is that the goals Smiths let in are often visibly terrible. When he’s off there’s no turning back. When he lets in one bad goal he rarely has a flawless game after it occurs. This is the last type of goalie you want to go into the playoffs with. Especially being so damn poor on home ice like Smith is. Rittich isn’t a perfect goalie but the goals he lets in are far less infuriating than the ones smith lets in, and are far less back breaking. The times Rittich has let in a stick let he seems to respond much better than Smith. With Smith everything goes to #### when he lets in a bad goal. I’ve never seen a goalie on a great team get as rattled as Smith does.


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Have you seen Jones play this year? I don’t think Smith is much different from him. I think there is a bit too much armchair psychology with how posters view Smiths mental state. However I do agree Rittich is lower variation and with a team this good it might be more valuable to have a goalie who doesn’t lose games more than a goalie who steals games. And obviously Rittich has more of a future with this team so I’m hoping he seizes the starting job again. But until he actually outplays him again over a long stretch they’re likely going to keep splitting it 50/50.

[Manhattanboy]

Save us obig save dave you’re our only hope.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Beninho

The problem is that the goals Smiths let in are often visibly terrible. When he’s off there’s no turning back. When he lets in one bad goal he rarely has a flawless game after it occurs. This is the last type of goalie you want to go into the playoffs with. Especially being so damn poor on home ice like Smith is. Rittich isn’t a perfect goalie but the goals he lets in are far less infuriating than the ones smith lets in, and are far less back breaking. Smith seems to let in these goals at such awful times in the games as well and so often he does it on home ice. The times Rittich has let in a stinker he seems to respond much better than Smith. With Smith everything goes to #### when he lets in a bad goal. I’ve never seen a goalie on a great team get as rattled as Smith does.


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It is like the Wild coach said, "he is either really good or really bad'. If that is how teams view Smith then they are going to try and exploit any weaknesses.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

anyone who thinks the Flames should've gotten Quick should know that he's been the second-worst goaltender in the entire NHL this year

Flames as a team are +46 Kings are -49 hard to expect any goalie to have good stats with that kind of team defense.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Beninho

This is the only place I’ve seen people who actually think Talbot is worth salvaging. He’s done too


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Button has said he needs rehabilitating but that he would take a crack at him.
You are welcome to come up with your own options.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Have you seen Jones play this year? I don’t think Smith is much different from him. I think there is a bit too much armchair psychology with how posters view Smiths mental state. However I do agree Rittich is lower variation and with a team this good it might be more valuable to have a goalie who doesn’t lose games more than a goalie who steals games. And obviously Rittich has more of a future with this team so I’m hoping he seizes the starting job again. But until he actually outplays him again over a long stretch they’re likely going to keep splitting it 50/50.

I’m not trying to dissect the mental state of Mike Smith, just that I see a goalie who lets mistakes compound after one occurs. He doesn’t seem to do a good job putting the error behind him and usually in his bad games he will have one really bad blunder and then a weak goal or two that may be excusable but aren’t after his first gaffe. I just have zero faith that smith has the composure to lead this team deep in the playoffs, he’s one of the least composed goalies I’ve seen on this team since I’ve been a fan.


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[Shazam]

Originally Posted by DazzlinDino

It is like the Wild coach said, "he is either really good or really bad'. If that is how teams view Smith then they are going to try and exploit any weaknesses.

If he is that volatile, and he is, then the correct strategy is to apply pressure on him all the time. He's bound to make a bad mistake then every once in a while.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by DazzlinDino

It is like the Wild coach said, "he is either really good or really bad'. If that is how teams view Smith then they are going to try and exploit any weaknesses.

This is so true. I can hear Boudreau’s usual four letter pre-game pep talk going something like they got a pos goalie who sits back in his net and gets rattled easily. Get a softie on him and the flood gates open.

No way I start Smith in the playoffs where everthing is magnified 1000x.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Have you seen Jones play this year? I don’t think Smith is much different from him. I think there is a bit too much armchair psychology with how posters view Smiths mental state. However I do agree Rittich is lower variation and with a team this good it might be more valuable to have a goalie who doesn’t lose games more than a goalie who steals games. And obviously Rittich has more of a future with this team so I’m hoping he seizes the starting job again. But until he actually outplays him again over a long stretch they’re likely going to keep splitting it 50/50.

Agreed.

I posted the numbers above of how they compare since Jan.1...which apparently one is not allowed to do because its arbitrary. Rittich has had chances to seize the net and simply hasn't done so.

If you look post all-star break after a getaway and a re-set, the numbers are even more eye popping and the whole "strength of opponent" really doesnt come into play at all.

Since Feb 1.

Rittich has started 6 games going 3-1-1 (and getting pulled once against SJ)
He was .884 save% and 3.02 GAA
He played against Carolina, San Jose, Vancouver, TB, Ottawa and NJ 3 playoff teams.

Smith has started 8 times going 5-3-1 (and taking the SJ loss)
He was '911 save% and a 2.61 GAA
He played Washington, SJ, Florida Pitt. AZ, NYI x2, Anaheim and Minny. 6 playoff teams.

Bolded are all playoff teams at this moment.

Those are just the cold hard numbers of the two guys since the break.

[FlamesAddiction]

Maybe this is confirmation bias on my part because I admittedly hated the Smith acquisition from day one, but he just seems to let in goals at the worst time, particularly early in a game. It doesn't matter if he is great the rest of the game since playing from behind for 55:00+ minutes is a completely different game and more taxing on the players. It also forces them to open up more exposing the defense.

I am not sure if there is a fancy stat for it somewhere, but I would bet that Smith lets in the first goal and early goals, more often per game played than any goalie in the NHL this season, and maybe even the past few seasons.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by transplant99

What about reducing the wear and tear on the defensmens bodies?

No benefit there through a long season not taking 10 or so hits a game they otherwise would?

Not enough of one to bother? Does it matter what those guys say about it?

Cause that's the reasoning from the players, coaches, and management.

I honestly doubt Smith's stick handling is worth even 1 or 2 fewer hits per game on average. But flip that script: Is it worth the extra wear and tear on a 36-year-old goalie who's had nagging injuries while with the Flames already?

What about the extra wear and tear on the team given they had to try to battle back from a 3-1 deficit instead of a 1-1 tie? What about the wear on seeing that same goalie throw those efforts away with another joke of a goal against after you battled to get back to within one?

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

This is so true. I can hear Boudreau’s usual four letter pre-game pep talk going something like they got a pos goalie who sits back in his net and gets rattled easily. Get a softie on him and the flood gates open.

No way I start Smith in the playoffs where everthing is magnified 1000x.

^I said this exact same thing a few posts back. It's like the 3 headed monster in that it leaves too much of a distraction, or question mark. The team is going to play better if they know they got a guy back there who is going hold the fort.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I honestly doubt Smith's stick handling is worth even 1 or 2 fewer hits per game on average. But flip that script: Is it worth the extra wear and tear on a 36-year-old goalie who's had nagging injuries while with the Flames already?

What about the extra wear and tear on the team given they had to try to battle back from a 3-1 deficit instead of a 1-1 tie? What about the wear on seeing that same goalie throw those efforts away with another joke of a goal against after you battled to get back to within one?

Again......just going with the teams narrative.

I do tend to believe them when they say it is a positive overall for them. And I really believe the opposing team when they say it was a major reason why they couldn't produce more.

I don't think there is enough information to make a definitive decision on a spread sheet though, that's for sure.

[jg13]

Not sure if it was shown on tv but after Smith let in the 2nd goal about a minute later he physically responded to a Bronx cheer by lifting his arms up. That to me shows a goalie that is a bit fragile mentally. You can't react to that, just keep your focus. Then he let in another softie shortly after.

Mike Smith is short on confidence and or lack of focus. Both things a goalie needs.