American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mull

My view remains the same, get COVID money out NOW!

Then discuss the minimum wage issue seperate so you can delay it longer to try to get more from Joe. Help people now with COVID

Regarding minimum wage, including state laws, the average minimum wage right now in the USA is $11.80

So, Joe's proposal still helps people, those who are in the 10% of states who are at the current federal minimum wage of $7.25

But not many...

Do they have bipartisan support for just Covid relief?

If not they only get to use reconciliation a limited number of times to pass things without getting filibustered. So using reconciliation on Covid relief may prevent other things from being implemented

[GGG]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

How long does it keep them there?

A UBI is a short term solution that doesn’t fix anything. As soon as the same people who are currently saying the minimum wage is too high start saying the same thing about UBI, and you know that would absolutely happen and be supported, inflation will erode any gains made by those relying on UBI until we’re right back to where we started, only at that point a minimum wage will have also likely been abolished.

Inflation only happens if you borrow to pay for UBI. If instead you tax to fund UBI then inflation will not be the result.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by GGG

Do they have bipartisan support for just Covid relief?

If not they only get to use reconciliation a limited number of times to pass things without getting filibustered. So using reconciliation on Covid relief may prevent other things from being implemented

Manchin may well be right that $15 min wage will cause problems in his state, and that just highlights how it needs to be regionally adjusted. The right policy has to be some percentage based on median income of a region. County level would probably be best, but state is better than national at least.

I'm curious to see how restaurants will fare. Min wage for tipped wages is $2 here in VA even with a move to $15 min state min wage and pretty much all restaurants pay that (they have to still make regular min wage with tips included). Restaurants are already reeling from COVID, and I can see a lot of independent restaurants just closing up shop if tips no longer count towards min wage.

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Manchin may well be right that $15 min wage will cause problems in his state, and that just highlights how it needs to be regionally adjusted. The right policy has to be some percentage based on median income of a region. County level would probably be best, but state is better than national at least.

I'm curious to see how restaurants will fare. Min wage for tipped wages is $2 here in VA even with a move to $15 min state min wage and pretty much all restaurants pay that (they have to still make regular min wage with tips included). Restaurants are already reeling from COVID, and I can see a lot of independent restaurants just closing up shop if tips no longer count towards min wage.

Curious what the real (as opposed to reported for tax purposes) hourly wage is for the average restaurant server who gets tips.

Going to a $15 minimum wage and no tips may end up being cheaper for the restaurant patron and result in more business for the restaurant, considering that paying $2 to servers and having them rely on tips just shifts costs from the employer to the eater.

[GirlySports]

If Manchin is concerned, can't they lower it to $13 or $14, or make the increase to $15 over a longer period. Say over 7 years instead of 5? Why is $15 the magic number.

As we know in Alberta, it went from $10 to 15 in 4 years, which may have been too steep too fast for some businesses

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by GGG

Inflation only happens if you borrow to pay for UBI. If instead you tax to fund UBI then inflation will not be the result.

GGG you don’t really believe that a UBI will be able to eliminate inflation do you?

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

GGG you don’t really believe that a UBI will be able to eliminate inflation do you?

That’s not the same thing. But a UBI can be funded without directly causing inflation.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

That’s not the same thing. But a UBI can be funded without directly causing inflation.

Potentially, but my original point wasn’t that inflation caused by UBI would hurt its value over the long run, rather inflation in general regardless of the source.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by GGG

Do they have bipartisan support for just Covid relief?

If not they only get to use reconciliation a limited number of times to pass things without getting filibustered. So using reconciliation on Covid relief may prevent other things from being implemented

This is a good point, thanks for that I don't know enough about it to answer to be honest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconc...ates_Congress)

Reconciliation bills can be passed on spending, revenue, and the federal debt limit, and the Senate can pass one bill per year affecting each subject. Congress can thus pass a maximum of three reconciliation bills per year, though in practice it has often passed a single reconciliation bill affecting both spending and revenue.[2] Policy changes that are extraneous to the budget are limited by the "Byrd Rule", which also prohibits reconciliation bills from increasing the federal deficit after a ten-year period or making changes to Social Security.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Potentially, but my original point wasn’t that inflation caused by UBI would hurt its value over the long run, rather inflation in general regardless of the source.

What I don't get is this argument that UBI would cause inflation, yet increasing the minimum wage to $15/hr somehow wouldn't.

If your goal is to get more money into the hands into people currently at the bottom of the pay scale, it seems that no matter how you do so, it's going to result in inflation. More money in the hands of consumers means higher demand for goods, which consequently means inflation...

Then you have the problem of small businesses not being able to afford the higher minimum wage for workers, meaning some of them go out of business. This means less competition in the market which in turn would puts upward pressure on prices...

The way I see it, inflation is an inevitable consequence of any measure taken to decrease inequality in society and improve the financial situation of the poor and lower-middle class.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

https://twitter.com/user/status/1364006998946242561

At the end of the day minimum wage rises don't really get rolled back, and if this lets them basically pass a giant package through quickly without a big fight, they should take it to the bank, run, and just push for the $15 increase on the next big legislation too.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Potentially, but my original point wasn’t that inflation caused by UBI would hurt its value over the long run, rather inflation in general regardless of the source.

I misread, I interpreted it as you saying UBI would cause inflation and therefore eliminate its benefits rather than inflation would erode the benefits.

The answer to that is simply index minimum wage / UBI / any other government benefit to inflation as part of its implementation.

Then you tax excess to take money out of the economy to prevent inflation.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Manchin is gonna be such a pain in the arse over these next couple of years. Dude basically holds all the power in the Senate right now.

This both true and inexplicable to me, he is right now basically a republican, his opposition to various cabinet members makes no sense to me, I get he is a conservative Democrat, or at least represents a conservative state but why the hell would he bother opposing cabinet picks that most of his voters would recognize if they fell on them?

I cannot see what the political advantage is to him just being a dick for being a dicks sake

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

This both true and inexplicable to me, he is right now basically a republican, his opposition to various cabinet members makes no sense to me, I get he is a conservative Democrat, or at least represents a conservative state but why the hell would he bother opposing cabinet picks that most of his voters would recognize if they fell on them?

I cannot see what the political advantage is to him just being a dick for being a dicks sake

It's a power play. He's showing his constituents that they can trust to vote him in again because he will exert his will over either party to ensure their best interests are kept. This is enormously attractive to a small population state like Manchin's, and is basically the same as McConnell's strategy for Kentucky. Outside chance IMO that he's also trying to position himself as a potential middle ground candidate for president in a future election.

[Mull]

People need to realize Joe is in a republican state.

Yes, power play tactics are likely at play, but he needs to pander to his base to keep his job. That may not be the morally correct idea, given many of us here would argue a higher than $11/hr minimum wage would benefits his base, but it gives context.

I think I recall someone saying that Joe had a study citing that an increase beyond $11/hr would hurt jobs in his state?

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

What I don't get is this argument that UBI would cause inflation, yet increasing the minimum wage to $15/hr somehow wouldn't.

If your goal is to get more money into the hands into people currently at the bottom of the pay scale, it seems that no matter how you do so, it's going to result in inflation. More money in the hands of consumers means higher demand for goods, which consequently means inflation...

Then you have the problem of small businesses not being able to afford the higher minimum wage for workers, meaning some of them go out of business. This means less competition in the market which in turn would puts upward pressure on prices...

The way I see it, inflation is an inevitable consequence of any measure taken to decrease inequality in society and improve the financial situation of the poor and lower-middle class.

Actually inflation isn't totally inevitable. The crux of the issue being credit.

Most people living in low income survive by supplementing their income with credit in order to afford their lifestyles. This isn't a flaw in our current system, its a benefit which positively affects the rich and negatively affects the poor, leading to the increased wealth gap. The increase in disparity and the increase in available and used personal credit have very similar growth you can trace back to the 80s.

This huge increase in revolving debt has allowed the average consumer to purchase items they never could before without saving (or something like lay-a-way). The cost of interest has drained the poor and inflated the rich while allowing the poor to live to a higher standard in the short term. People already have extra money in their hands for spending, they just don't realize it isn't theirs.

Increasing UBI or the minimum wage must also come with credit reform. Caps on interest rates, increased regulation to limit how much exposure we allow people to have. This allows wages to closer match the spending that is already happening. Joe can still buy his 50" TV, but instead is using the 24% Best Buy credit card, he now has an income to support it.

A higher minimum wage/UBI should not increase inflation very much because most of that spending is already happening. What it does is decreases profits from interest, which is something the wealthy would not like and thus you get a lot of push back.

Of course, generally, people will spend to what they have available so a UBI or increased minimum wage without credit reforms will totally result in inflation and only help in the short term.

[Flashpoint]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Shh Biden’s busy doing other stuff. We’ll get our Covid money when they’re good and goddamn ready.

Edit: and before one of the bootlickers comes flying in with their defence of daddy Biden I know it’s on Congress to pass it not Biden. He’s just not doing the stuff he promised as a candidate and we’re supposed to accept that and move on. But at least he’s not Trump so everything is fine better.

FYP.

It'll take a while to get to fine thanks to the GOP. Patience is important.

[Macman]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Manchin is gonna be such a pain in the arse over these next couple of years. Dude basically holds all the power in the Senate right now.

He's also against the Neera Tanden nomination along with Bernie Sanders and a few RINOs.

Why is this minimum wage bill in the covid package to begin with? Get covid aid out to the people already!

[rubecube]

Brutal.

https://www.dailyposter.com/p/dems-g...alth-insurance

Instead of enacting a universal Medicare for All health care system that would save the United States and its citizens hundreds of billions of dollars annually, temporarily expanding Medicare or championing a promised “public option,” Democrats are rallying behind a health care proposal that will funnel tens of billions of dollars to corporate health insurance companies even as they are already experiencing record profits and jacking up premiums, while continuing to deny claims.

Democrats’ current plan will lower people’s premiums, but only on a temporary basis. It will also not stop insurers from passing on huge out-of-pocket costs to enrollees if they need medical care, nor does it improve the quality of people’s health insurance. Indeed, it will push people onto state exchanges where one in six in-network medical claims were denied in 2019.

The proposal would be a boon for the health insurance industry, which has specifically lobbied for the new subsidies. Health insurers have already seen their profits skyrocket during the COVID-19 pandemic, since people have avoided going to the doctor, which means insurance companies are paying less to providers while collecting the same amount of premiums.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Macman

He's also against the Neera Tanden nomination along with Bernie Sanders and a few RINOs.

Why is this minimum wage bill in the covid package to begin with? Get covid aid out to the people already!

the only way they can pass the minimum wage is by putting it in with Covid