The forward depth: what gives?

[TheScorpion]

It's no secret that the Flames are currently playing excellent hockey. They're receiving contributions from all four lines and new coach Geoff Ward seems to be able to put anyone in the lineup anywhere without missing a beat. Even renowned fighter Zac Rinaldo is showing hitherto undreamt-of offensive flair under the current system.

That said, the Flames are soon to face a puzzling conundrum, albeit a good one to have. Simply put, this team has too many forwards and only 12 regular spots for them. Right now, with Sam Bennett and Austin Czarnik at varying levels of recuperation from injuries, the Flames have been able to give ample playing time to overachieving depth characters. But with Bennett and Czarnik seemingly soon to return, the Flames need to trim the roster down.

Of course, some guys have more security than others. The following players can be readily assumed as locks to remain with the big club, largely due to salary considerations and their established roles on the team:

- Mikael Backlund
- Sam Bennett
- Johnny Gaudreau
- Elias Lindholm
- Milan Lucic
- Andrew Mangiapane
- Sean Monahan
- Derek Ryan
- Matthew Tkachuk

Those are nine forwards. Three lines. But when it comes to the remaining three slots (plus an extra or two), things get a bit more complex, with the following players all vying for placement:

- Austin Czarnik
- Dillon Dube
- Michael Frolik
- Mark Jankowski
- Matthew Phillips
- Tobias Rieder
- Zac Rinaldo

At least two of these players have to be sent down. Cap considerations will likely force the reassignment of three. But which ones?

Let's break it down.

Matthew Phillips

The diminutive forward has lit up the American Hockey League this season, pacing Stockton and ranking seventh among AHL skaters with 25 points in 22 games. Recalled on Tuesday, Phillips didn't draw into Calgary's contest against Arizona later that night. It remains to be seen whether he'll play against Toronto on Thursday, or if he'll even be around the team by then.

Phillips is the easiest player for the Flames to send down. He hasn't played any games, and he doesn't require waivers to be sent back to Stockton. The organization will hope to avoid losing any of its depth if possible, and placing players on waivers opens up that risk.

He could get into a game or two if Matthew Tkachuk remains sidelined for an extended duration of time, but Phillips is likely Stockton-bound before long.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 5%

Zac Rinaldo

This one is so, so tricky. Rinaldo has been something of a revelation in Calgary since his recall. He's fast, has a good shot, and has managed to find some chemistry with Michael Frolik on the fourth line. He also has a bit of crazy in him that can spark a team and make a real difference in a tight-checking hockey game.

But... he's 29. He's been around for a decade. While he has been a buzzsaw for the Flames, is that likely to last? He has 40 career points in over 350 NHL games. And, from an asset valuation standpoint, are NHL GMs going to be lining up to claim him off waivers?

Rinaldo has made a real difference on the Flames, and sending him down would be more of a casualty of the business side of the game more than anything. But he might also be the type of player who is better in small doses, only used sporadically -- but at the right times. Even if he's sent down, he'll be back.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 20%

Austin Czarnik

With 184 career AHL games played, Austin Czarnik is no stranger to the American Hockey League. In fact, he's there right now on a temporary conditioning stint, and he just scored the game-winning goal in overtime for the Stockton Heat in their 3-2 win over the Ontario Reign.

Czarnik has scored eight goals in 62 games with the Flames. He's fast but small, skilled but inconsistent, cheap but perhaps not cheap enough. He was playing some of his best hockey as a Flame before suffering an injury in October, but even at his best, does he provide as much value for his $1.25 million salary as a similar player in the minors (or Tobias Rieder) might provide at the league minimum?

Of course, Czarnik is not waivers exempt, and there's a decent chance that he wouldn't pass through if the team wanted to assign him to Stockton. And he's a good piece to have around: he can score on the powerplay, has good hands and vision, and (most of all) has speed to burn. But the Flames would stand to save $1.075 million of Czarnik's $1.25 million cap hit if he cleared waivers, and that could help to open up critical breathing room that might enable GM Brad Treliving to make a move at the trade deadline.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 45%

Mark Jankowski

Jankowski is another player whose salary likely exceeds his value. But while Czarnik has played some of his best hockey as a Flame this season, Jankowski has played his worst: he has yet to record a single goal or primary assist through 29 games.

Jankowski has a $1.675 million cap hit, which was more than reasonable when he scored 14 goals and 32 points in 2018-19. Now, it feels almost like an anchor. That said, Jankowski has always been a project for the Flames organization, and while his counting stats rank among the league's worst this season, his overwhelmingly defensive deployment hasn't done him many favours in that regard. His mainstay status on the Flames' penalty-killing units also helps his cause.

Most of Austin Czarnik's salary can be buried in the AHL, while demoting Jankowski gives the Flames a $600,000 dead weight. While Czarnik is certainly the more versatile of the two players, with his ability to play both wing and centre, Jankowski has proven more at the NHL level and is a fixture on special teams. He also has a slightly higher chance of maintaining a long-term role in the organization, something that the Flames might try to avoid jeopardizing outright through a waiver claim.

Trade speculation? Well, that's a discussion for another day...

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 60%

Tobias Rieder

Rieder has generally been a good presence for the Flames. He's fast and versatile, two qualities that help players endear themselves easily to NHL coaches. He's also dirt cheap, at $700,000.

Why send him down, then? Well, his entire salary can be buried, and he's already passed through waivers once before this season. That was before his recent three-game point streak and increased role on the penalty-kill. It's entirely possible that another team would pounce on Rieder if he were to be made available again.

It's more likely than not that Rieder is here to stay. That's a good thing, provided he maintains his current level of performance.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 85%

Michael Frolik

Frolik hasn't been bad this season, but he hasn't been particularly good, either. Up until his back-to-back goal-scoring performances against Colorado and Arizona, Frolik had recorded a single goal over his first 29 games and had twice been made a healthy scratch. Plus, he's pretty expensive, boasting a $4.3 million salary-cap hit. Generally speaking, it's not a good look to waive or demote guys making that much money.

And why do it? Despite his limited production, Frolik is still a quality veteran player with the ability to play either wing and on almost any line. If the circumstances required it, Geoff Ward could stick him with Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund and the trio would likely register decent, if not good, results. Frolik also kills penalties with regularity and success.

Unless a trade partner comes along who is willing to absorb all of his salary without sending a similarly costly player in return, it's hard to envision Frolik not playing out the final year of his contract with the Flames.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 90%

Dillon Dube

Who am I kidding? Dube is here to stay. Sure, he's exempt from waivers. That doesn't change that he's been fantastic since his recall. Dube looks like he could be a quality top-six forward in the making, and with the way he's rolling along in Calgary, the Flames would need to have a very good reason to sacrifice his momentum in favour of a reassignment to Stockton.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 99%

16 forwards enter. 13 stay. My picks to leave are Phillips, Rinaldo, and Czarnik. It's not an easy choice for me to make, though -- I can't imagine how difficult it'll be for the guy actually paid to make that call.

Interested to hear what you all think.

[868904]

I think you take things one game at a time. If the Flames play like crap next game and all the bubble guys don’t play well, there’s really not much to worry about.

From an asset and cap management perspective, I think if Frolik can rebuild any value, you try and move him. What he brings can be replaced by Rieder who is significantly cheaper.

The other players I think you consider moving are Janko and Czarnik. Janko is looking less and less likely to be a top 6 centre and as a bottom 6, he just doesn’t have enough jam. Czarnik is a UFA and his game is too similar to Mangiapane, Dube and Phillips, all of whom have higher upside.

Rinaldo bringns something this team is missing, a physical presence and forecheck. I really want to see him in the lineup every game and I want to see him on an energy / momentum line with Bennett.

[Groot]

Phillips is gone as soon as Tkachuk is back, and while I want to see what Phillips has at an NHL level I hope that is tomorrow.

Czarnik is one of the players that I really think will benefit playing under Ward vs Peters and I'm really excited to see what he has back in the lineup once his conditioning stint is over.

Rinaldo brings a different element to the 4th line but he's better served as a replacement forward and rotated in when necessary given the opponent. Not gonna be high on any teams waiver watch.

Frolik isn't going to the AHL so unless hes traded, hes gonna be taking the spot of someone else that I'd likely rather see on the team but he won't be here next year. Would love a trade but I imagine he's here till the end of the season. He fights for a spot with Czarnik, the two rotating the press box.

Dube looks like he belongs and seems to thrive under Ward as well, he stays 100%.

Jankowski is like Frolik, would love to see a trade as I don't see him being sent to the AHL, but his PK role also helps keep him up.

Reider has been solid but I think that everything he does can be replaced, so he'll be sent down and recalled as needed through the season. Like Rinaldo, I dont think he's high on any teams waiver watch.

(When healthy)
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Gaudreau - Monahan - Backlund
Lucic - Ryan - Dube
Bennett - Jankoswki - Czarnik
Frolik

Sent to AHL
Phillips, Reider, Rinaldo

[SeanCharles]

Gaudreau-Monahan-Backlund
Tkachuk-Lindholm-Mangiapane
Lucic-Ryan-Dube
_____-Bennett-Frolik

Rotate a 4th line spot between Jankowski, Czarnik and Reider.

Send Rinaldo and Phillips down.

Is there enough space for this?

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

Gaudreau-Monahan-Backlund
Tkachuk-Lindholm-Mangiapane
Lucic-Ryan-Dube
_____-Bennett-Frolik

Rotate a 4th line spot between Jankowski, Czarnik and Reider.

Send Rinaldo and Phillips down.

Is there enough space for this?

Yes, but it precludes the Flames from accumulating any cap space for the trade deadline. With Valimaki on the LTIR, the Flames will exceed the salary cap by $623,375 with your proposed active roster. That's ok, since Valimaki on the LTIR allows the Flames to exceed the salary cap by $894,166. However, since cap space is calculated daily, and LTIR usage prevents teams from accruing daily cap space, the Flames would sacrifice their ability to gain cap space for future use with that arrangement.

I'm 99.9% sure I'm explaining LTIR right, btw.

[Enoch Root]

The depth is fantastic, and is the strength of the team. We knew - or at least believed - this going into the season, but the entire team started off in a funk, clouding the talent level and our ability to assess it. But now the team is playing better, more to its potential, and we can see what we have.

You (OP) talk about 16 forwards, but I don't think we should include Phillips, because he hasn't played a game and thus hasn't proven that he is an NHLer, and also, someone has to go down, and he is an obvious candidate. So let's look at the 15.

First, I would add Dube to the first list, as I think he has firmly established himself as not only an NHLer, but a top 9er. There are so many ways to line them up, but this is my way:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Backlund (Backs on RW solidifies the lines so much)
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane (a very deep and solid top 6)

For the bottom 6, there are all kinds of possibilities, which speaks to the depth. And all 9 remaining guys can slot in. And the nice thing about depth is that you can slot guys in depending on what attributes you think you need for the next game: speed, grit, goal scoring, whatever (like the Habs under Scotty Bowman). So I think the bottom 6 should be looked at in 2 parts, the everyday guys, and the role players for the game du jour. Everyday guys:

Ryan
Bennett
Dube
Lucic

and then sprinkle in two guys from the role player bench:

Frolik
Rieder
Jankowski
Rinaldo
Czarnik
(and you can add Phillips to the list as an offensive guy you could plug in if needed)

so from that, we can create the bottom 6 in lots of ways, but we essentially have 3 more lines:

Bennett - Ryan - Dube
Lucic - Rieder - Frolik
Rinaldo - Jankowski - Czarnik

Really solid.

Personally, I would love to see:

Bennett - Dube - Lucic (this line would be fun to watch)
XXX - Ryan - Frolik (insert LW as required)

Gaudreau - Monahan - Backlund
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Bennett - Dube - Lucic
Rieder - Ryan - Frolik

is a really, really solid set of lines - one offensive, 2 that are two-way, and one defensive

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Yes, but it precludes the Flames from accumulating any cap space for the trade deadline. With Valimaki on the LTIR, the Flames will exceed the salary cap by $623,375 with your proposed active roster. That's ok, since Valimaki on the LTIR allows the Flames to exceed the salary cap by $894,166. However, since cap space is calculated daily, and LTIR usage prevents teams from accruing daily cap space, the Flames would sacrifice their ability to gain cap space for future use with that arrangement.

I'm 99.9% sure I'm explaining LTIR right, btw.

okay, but what do you suggest?

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The depth is fantastic, and is the strength of the team. We knew - or at least believed
- this going into the season, but the entire team started off in a funk, clouding the talent level and our ability to assess it. But now the team is playing better, more to its potential, and we can see what we have.

You (OP) talk about 16 forwards, but I don't think we should include Phillips, because he hasn't played a game and thus hasn't proven that he is an NHLer, and also, someone has to go down, and he is an obvious candidate. So let's look at the 15.

First, I would add Dube to the first list, as I think he has firmly established himself as not only an NHLer, but a top 9er. There are so many ways to line them up, but this is my way:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Backlund (Backs on RW solidifies the lines so much)
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane (a very deep and solid top 6)

For the bottom 6, there are all kinds of possibilities, which speaks to the depth. And all 9 remaining guys can slot in. And the nice thing about depth is that you can slot guys in depending on what attributes you think you need for the next game: speed, grit, goal scoring, whatever (like the Habs under Scotty Bowman). So I think the bottom 6 should be looked at in 2 parts, the everyday guys, and the role players for the game du jour. Everyday guys:

Ryan
Bennett
Dube
Lucic

and then sprinkle in two guys from the role player bench:

Frolik
Rieder
Jankowski
Rinaldo
Czarnik
(and you can add Phillips to the list as an offensive guy you could plug in if needed)

so from that, we can create the bottom 6 in lots of ways, but we essentially have 3 more lines:

Bennett - Ryan - Dube
Lucic - Rieder - Frolik
Rinaldo - Jankowski - Czarnik

Really solid.

Personally, I would love to see:

Bennett - Dube - Lucic (this line would be fun to watch)
XXX - Ryan - Frolik (insert LW as required)

Gaudreau - Monahan - Backlund
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Bennett - Dube - Lucic
Rieder - Ryan - Frolik

is a really, really solid set of lines - one offensive, 2 that are two-way, and one defensive

I think Lucic and Ryan will be a pairing all season long.

You hear how well Lucic plays with RH centres all the time, from the coaching staff, so I don’t see it not being a thing.

[Zulu29]

I’d send down Phillips, Jankowski and Rinaldo. Jankowski has been completely useless this season and there are better options for his role.

[burn_this_city]

Send down Phillips, Janko, and Reider. Rinaldo brings a physical element we are missing and seems to be playing well.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

I think Lucic and Ryan will be a pairing all season long.

You hear how well Lucic plays with RH centres all the time, from the coaching staff, so I don’t see it not being a thing.

Yeah they talk about that a lot, but is there any evidence to back it up? (not arguing with you, just questioning the assessment) I mean, Ryan is a really solid player, so he is going to make guys look good, regardless of handedness.

On its own, I am totally fine with Ryan and Lucic- they have been great together. The challenge is that one of Ryan, Bennett or Dube gets pushed to the 4th line. And none of them deserve it.

(Bennett - Ryan - Dube would be a hell of a line)

But when I look at those guys, the one that I feel can still function just as well on the 4th line is Ryan - he makes anyone he plays with better. Which is why I like Bennett - Dube - Lucic, leaving Ryan to carry the 4th line with Frolik.

Anyway, the great thing about all this depth is lots and lots of options

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yeah they talk about that a lot, but is there any evidence to back it up?

+1

Lucic had strong seasons in LA (Kopitar) and the 2017 Oilers (McDavid / Hopkins) who are all left shots. His game falling apart probably had more to do with Edmonton's brutal blueline once Klefbom became a perennial IR candidate and Davidson got hurt.

[Gaskal]

With the way Rinaldo's playing I believe he stays - he doesn't necessarily have to get points to be an impact player and so he might be a better fit in a bottom six role. Reider goes down, might get claimed. Bennett is activated - I'd stick him with Frolik and Rinaldo as the new 4th line.

Jankowski gets waived and clears. Czarnik is recalled.

Phillips is sent back after the weekend. Might actually see him against Toronto and Carolina because they're home games and he's a born & raised Calgarian with probably a ton of family & friends. It would be a very Wardo thing to do as he dressed Reider, Rinaldo and Stone vs their former team.

Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Gaudreau - Monahan - Backlund
Lucic - Ryan - Dube
Rinaldo - Bennett - Frolik
Czarnik

[flambers]

I would think Phillips has already been sent down, with Tkachuk playing tonight.

Tough part is when Bennett & Czarnik are removed from the LTIR.

Flames will need to make two more moves.

[bax]

Jankowski won't be waived because of his role on the PK. He's also been a victim of bad luck, but it looks like it's finally turning. Ward played him more than Monahan last game

[dissentowner]

Given our depth this is our chance to really go for it by acquiring a legit top 6 threat to fill out thr roster. You use Backlund + picks and or prospects to make it happen. I am not in favour of getting Taylor Hall but as an example Backlund, Kylington, 2020 1st with another conditional first if he re-signs for Hall.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Given our depth this is our chance to really go for it by acquiring a legit top 6 threat to fill out thr roster. You use Backlund + picks and or prospects to make it happen. I am not in favour of getting Taylor Hall but as an example Backlund, Kylington, 2020 1st with another conditional first if he re-signs for Hall.

So Monahan, Lindholm and Ryan as our top 3 centres...I like it.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

okay, but what do you suggest?

Well, I think it's important that they bank cap space for the future. I made my suggestions in the OP -- send Czarnik, Phillips, and Rinaldo to Stockton if no trade suitors can be found for the more expensive guys.

That leaves you with a forward group like this:

Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Gaudreau - Monahan - Backlund
Lucic - Ryan - Dube
Rieder - Bennett - Frolik
Extra: Jankowski

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Sorry but the Flames won’t be waiving and sending down Jankowski, that’s completely unrealistic.

As much as fans are down on him you don’t give away 6’4 centres who have skill and skating. If his value isn’t higher than his upside then it makes the most sense to keep him and see if he can realize his upside.

I could certainly see BT cashing in and trading him at some point but those suggesting sending him down are being silly. You don’t give away assets for nothing.

[Roof-Daddy]

Hopefully Frolik being somewhat revitalized from the coaching change can entice somebody to trade for him. He's too expensive for his role here, and can maybe do better in a bigger role elsewhere.

Pretty much making him a rental, even though the Flames are hopefully going to be a playoff team. Normally a playoff team wouldn't trade away veteran depth like that, but as outlined in the OP, the Flames have a lot of forward depth on the roster, and also some prospects excelling in the AHL.

Of course there aren't many teams with the cap space to absorb that, so I don't see it happening.