Sam Bennett contract negotiations.

[zuluking]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

What about Tangible points.

I thought these stats were about "tangible" points?

Goals60 - 84th (3rd line)
PrimaryA60 - 39th (2nd line)

Or what do you mean by "tangible"?

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Finally ...

Filtered NHL forwards down to the top ten teams (points wise, seemed the most fair way to draw a contender line).

Sam Bennetts rankings out of 135 forwards on these teams

Individual
Goals60 - 84th (3rd line)
PrimaryA60 - 39th (2nd line)
Shots60 - 63rd (3rd line)
ExpGoals60 - 28th (1st line)
IndividualCF60 - 49th (2nd line)
IndividualSCF60 - 22nd (1st line)
IndividualHDCF60 - 16th (1st line)

So yeah ... let the fourth line thing go.

Interesting.

Am I interpreting this correctly, in that the above essentially normalizes for differences in ice time?

If that's the case, why are we even talking about needing to get a Zucker? Let's give Sam some actual ice time and let him turn the normalized numbers into actual numbers.

[IliketoPuck]

Sam needs to work on his shot this summer. If he can start averaging 3 shots per game, his numbers are going to go way up.

[neo45]

I don’t think the production is there to justify over 3m unless he is giving up his prime years, which would be great for the team but stupid from Bennett’s perspective to bet against himself


Expect 2-3 years at around 2.5-2.75 AAV

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

He scored 33% of his points in 24% of his icetime with Backlund and Tkachuk.

Outside of that, he produced at a 4th line rate and there were 3 players on the Flames roster who were statistically better in basically every offensive category getting the same rough minutes.

For the love of god stop talking about his high danger scoring chances and talk about his actual, tangible offense.

For the love of god, stop getting hung up on the notion that a player playing with better linemates tends to produce more than when he plays with two guys that literally don't produce at all.

I literally just produced close to 30 metrics to describe the player, none of them come into the 4th line range in NHL forwards.

I couldn't be any more straight forward about this. I've agreed he's not a top six guy, I've agreed they need to upgrade the top six without inserting Bennett.

So you're literally hanging on to the fourth line designation without a single thing to back it up.

Becoming a big weird my dude.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by zuluking

I thought these stats were about "tangible" points?

Goals60 - 84th (3rd line)
PrimaryA60 - 39th (2nd line)

Or what do you mean by "tangible"?

So, the argument from Bingo here is that Bennett is an above average 3rd liner.

You would think if that was the case he would be producing goals per 60 at an above average rate, considering he played 24% of his minutes with the 2nd line on the 2nd best offensive team in the league.

Primary assists per 60 is higher than I expected, but it's tough to gauge without seeing the players that surround him on that list from other teams.

Just as a cursory glance, Bennett would've been 10th on the Sharks in points and i'm assuming points per 60 based on Sorenson scoring more in less average minutes.

He would've finished 7th on the bruins in points but i'm not sure of his point per 60 finish.

He would've finished 9th on Winnipeg between Copp and Lowry.

He would've finished behind Burakovsky for 10th on the caps. Roslovic would be right there with him despite averaging a couple minutes less per game.

Are all these guys above average 3rd liners?

I just don't see it. I see a guy getting ample opportunity and not producing as much as guys given lesser opportunity.

The Flames were the 2nd highest scoring team in the league this year, so how does Bennett compare to his own teammates?

Transplant's point about him being not great defensively is a big factor. How many guys can legitimately be considered above average 3rd line players and not kill penalties? Why doesn't he kill penalties? Because there are better bottom 6 options to do it? That there are actually at least 3 better bottom 6 options to kill penalties than bennett? Is that a notch in the 'above average' column?

Is it even possible to be an above average third liner if you don't play a single second of short handed icetime over the final 40 games of the season?

Frozen tools says Bennett scores the same goals per 60 as jankowski, scores less assists per 60 than Janko, less points per 60 than Janko but more shots per 60.

Does that mean Jankowski is also an above average 3rd liner? Jankowski also kills penalties.

In my opinion, of course Jankowski isn't an above average 3rd liner, and he's not better than Bennett. So what's Bennett?

Take out Quine and Bennett was the 10th best forward in points per 60 on the Flames this year at 1.7. Czarnik was 1.8.

Tied for 9th with Hathaway in goals per 60. 11th in Assists per 60, behind Dube.

These do not scream above average 3rd liner to me. The suggest an excellent 4th liner though. Tied for 9th in goals per 60 with Hathaway again does not scream above average third liner. Suggests perhaps a top tier 4th liner though. We all can acknowledge Hathaway is a 4th line player, right?

If you gave Roslovic 13 minutes a game instead of 10, he'd be right there with Bennett. I don't think Roslovic is an above average 3rd liner.

You could probably convince me that Bennett is a 3rd line player on a contending roster in a good year.

But if you can't trust him defensively, and he can't kill penalties, just how good of a 3rd liner could he possibly be?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Interesting.

Am I interpreting this correctly, in that the above essentially normalizes for differences in ice time?

If that's the case, why are we even talking about needing to get a Zucker? Let's give Sam some actual ice time and let him turn the normalized numbers into actual numbers.

His goal metrics say third line though. He can't finish.

It's interesting that he was good on primary assists, but lagged on secondary assists as that's a stat that swing season to season. Some more "unearned" points and nobody is talking about a stagnant Bennett. He has 35 points and a better progression.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Bingo

His goal metrics say third line though. He can't finish.

It's interesting that he was good on primary assists, but lagged on secondary assists as that's a stat that swing season to season. Some more "unearned" points and nobody is talking about a stagnant Bennett. He has 35 points and a better progression.

Would you have Elias Lindholm's goal metrics prior to this season that you could show?

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Sam needs to work on his shot this summer. If he can start averaging 3 shots per game, his numbers are going to go way up.

This. He gets scoring chances, but memorable moments where we recall him leaning into a good wrist shot? not often.

His muffin shot probably has something to do with those damn pullups.

[Flash Walken]

Who is the highest paid player between 22-25 that scores 30 points or less?

Is it Miles Wood at 2.75 for 19 goals?

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by neo45

I don’t think the production is there to justify over 3m unless he is giving up his prime years, which would be great for the team but stupid from Bennett’s perspective to bet against himself


Expect 2-3 years at around 2.5-2.75 AAV

I wouldn't go so far to say it would be stupid for Bennett to sign a 3-4 year deal at all. There's a lot to be said about security. NHL contracts are guaranteed. If I was in his shoes and you can get 10-12 million over four years, that's a pretty good deal and hard to say 'no' to, unless your looking to get out.

Look, Bennett signed a bridge deal two years ago likely thinking he needed two big years to put himself in a position to sign a long term big money contract. It didn't happen. If he's being honest with himself, he likely understands he's now going to have to put up multiple years of statistical improvements to even start a conversation about getting paid top six dollar figures (which I would consider starting at 4.5 per).

Signing another two year deal does nothing for Bennett. He would literally be in the same situation two years from now. Another contract negotiation with a team that owns your rights. Can you recall any player who signed two bridge deals in a row and saw his stock rise dramatically on the second deal? I can't.

His best bet is to sign a 3-4 year deal that gets him into UFA status. He should be thinking about that and making sure he's improving for each of those years. If that happens, he's likely a top six winger looking to sign long term for big dough. That's the best case scenario for Bennett.

I think the Flames like Bennett and have him in their plans, at least for the short-mid term. If they didn't believe in him, he'd likely be gone by now.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Would you have Elias Lindholm's goal metrics prior to this season that you could show?

Lindholm's three combined seasons prior to coming to Calgary had him ranked

310th in Goals60 (fourth line)
77th in PrimaryAssists60 (1st line)

Those three years had Bennett at

167th in Goals60 (2nd line)
208th PrimaryAssists60 (3rd line)

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Who is the highest paid player between 22-25 that scores 30 points or less?

Is it Miles Wood at 2.75 for 19 goals?

This past season? William Nylander

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Toonage

This past season? William Nylander

Lowest give a #### meter in the league.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

So, the argument from Bingo here is that Bennett is an above average 3rd liner.

You would think if that was the case he would be producing goals per 60 at an above average rate, considering he played 24% of his minutes with the 2nd line on the 2nd best offensive team in the league.

Primary assists per 60 is higher than I expected, but it's tough to gauge without seeing the players that surround him on that list from other teams.

Just as a cursory glance, Bennett would've been 10th on the Sharks in points and i'm assuming points per 60 based on Sorenson scoring more in less average minutes.

He would've finished 7th on the bruins in points but i'm not sure of his point per 60 finish.

He would've finished 9th on Winnipeg between Copp and Lowry.

He would've finished behind Burakovsky for 10th on the caps. Roslovic would be right there with him despite averaging a couple minutes less per game.

Are all these guys above average 3rd liners?

I just don't see it. I see a guy getting ample opportunity and not producing as much as guys given lesser opportunity.

The Flames were the 2nd highest scoring team in the league this year, so how does Bennett compare to his own teammates?

Transplant's point about him being not great defensively is a big factor. How many guys can legitimately be considered above average 3rd line players and not kill penalties? Why doesn't he kill penalties? Because there are better bottom 6 options to do it? That there are actually at least 3 better bottom 6 options to kill penalties than bennett? Is that a notch in the 'above average' column?

Is it even possible to be an above average third liner if you don't play a single second of short handed icetime over the final 40 games of the season?

Frozen tools says Bennett scores the same goals per 60 as jankowski, scores less assists per 60 than Janko, less points per 60 than Janko but more shots per 60.

Does that mean Jankowski is also an above average 3rd liner? Jankowski also kills penalties.

In my opinion, of course Jankowski isn't an above average 3rd liner, and he's not better than Bennett. So what's Bennett?

Take out Quine and Bennett was the 10th best forward in points per 60 on the Flames this year at 1.7. Czarnik was 1.8.

Tied for 9th with Hathaway in goals per 60. 11th in Assists per 60, behind Dube.

These do not scream above average 3rd liner to me. The suggest an excellent 4th liner though. Tied for 9th in goals per 60 with Hathaway again does not scream above average third liner. Suggests perhaps a top tier 4th liner though. We all can acknowledge Hathaway is a 4th line player, right?

If you gave Roslovic 13 minutes a game instead of 10, he'd be right there with Bennett. I don't think Roslovic is an above average 3rd liner.

You could probably convince me that Bennett is a 3rd line player on a contending roster in a good year.

But if you can't trust him defensively, and he can't kill penalties, just how good of a 3rd liner could he possibly be?

So you're willing to just ignore straight math and type out a monster post naming glamorous third liners?

What's the point.

I've dug into every stat you suggested and he keeps coming up third line plus. I stripped away the bottom 21 teams and he comes up third line plus.

You're like the guy dropping a pencil on the floor over and over again and screaming you don't believe in gravity.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Sam needs to work on his shot this summer. If he can start averaging 3 shots per game, his numbers are going to go way up.

Bennett definitely needs to work on his release. Fairly often he seems to take quite a bit of time to get his shot off to the point where he's either firing it off some plugs shin pad or the goalie is easily set up to make the save.

Hopefully he can get away from trying to fire it through a defender whose also providing a screen from 40ft out. He's not Ovechkin.

I wavers impressed with Lindholm's release. Not sure if Bennett can develop that skill, but it would go a long way for him.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Sam needs to work on his shot this summer. If he can start averaging 3 shots per game, his numbers are going to go way up.

Double post

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So you're willing to just ignore straight math and type out a monster post naming glamorous third liners?

What's the point.

I've dug into every stat you suggested and he keeps coming up third line plus. I stripped away the bottom 21 teams and he comes up third line plus.

You're like the guy dropping a pencil on the floor over and over again and screaming you don't believe in gravity.

Let me make it simple for you then, provide context for your numbers.

Run thr same comparison on goals assists danger chances etc etc for janko, Ryan, Hathaway, dube, Czar, mangiapane frolik and let us see where Bennett ranks among his teammates.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Let me make it simple for you then, provide context for your numbers.

Run thr same comparison on goals assists danger chances etc etc for janko, Ryan, Hathaway, dube, Czar, mangiapane frolik and let us see where Bennett ranks among his teammates.

How much more context do you need than to pull 372 forwards from a season, and simply rank them in terms of production.

It's complete context.

Then when you suggested the average shouldn't count as you'd need to look at contenders, I stripped away 21 teams and looked at how he ranked in simple math for 125 forwards.

You don't need to make it any more simple as I've answered every request and suggestion you've made.

[Bingo]

On the team Bennett's rankings ... (forwards)

Goals60 - 10th (4th line)
PrimaryA60 - 5th (2nd line)
Shots60 - 8th (3rd line)
ExpGoals60 - 2nd (1st line)
IndCF60 - 7th (3rd line)
IndSCF60 - 2nd (1st line)
IndHDCF60 - 1st (1st line)

Once again ... not going to have much luck making that fourth line case.