01-07-2019, 03:13 PM
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#221
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Backup Goalie
Join Date: Aug 2005
Exp:
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Nexoptic (NXO) has developed a new binocular device called DoubleTake using their flat lens technology. It's still in the development stage but states the product will be on sale this year in Q3.
They're at the Las Vegas Tech show and their product is listed as one of the "cool new products". It's #7 on the list.
https://www.cnet.com/pictures/all-th...s-at-ces-2019/
The stock is trading at $0.74 and in my opinion is a bargain.
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01-07-2019, 04:08 PM
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#222
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linecook
Nexoptic (NXO) has developed a new binocular device called DoubleTake using their flat lens technology. It's still in the development stage but states the product will be on sale this year in Q3.
They're at the Las Vegas Tech show and their product is listed as one of the "cool new products". It's #7 on the list.
https://www.cnet.com/pictures/all-th...s-at-ces-2019/
The stock is trading at $0.74 and in my opinion is a bargain.
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Wow, you've held on to them this long since they shot up over a year ago and then came crashing down?
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01-08-2019, 08:07 AM
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#223
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Backup Goalie
Join Date: Aug 2005
Exp:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by username
Wow, you've held on to them this long since they shot up over a year ago and then came crashing down?
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I've bought and sold, but for the most part been holding long and accumulating.
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01-09-2019, 02:07 PM
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#224
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Scoring Winger
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Looks like the bear market might be losing its grip.
These large caps have recently crossed the 200 day SMA, and are currently over the EMA on the 180-day chart. Might be ripe for the picking:
V
MA
AMZN
also, MSFT and WMT are about to cross the 200 day SMA, and over the EMA
of course, the orange clown in the WH can still crap all over the market with his stupid comments or decisions.
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01-09-2019, 03:11 PM
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#225
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Franchise Player
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The meeting with Powell, Yellin and Bernanke last week was really the turning point for the bear market. The word "patient" with future rate decisions was the key to this rally.
I meant to ask last time...what's the "High Yield Master II Option Adjusted Spread"? It looks important.
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01-09-2019, 03:28 PM
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#226
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!
The meeting with Powell, Yellin and Bernanke last week was really the turning point for the bear market. The word "patient" with future rate decisions was the key to this rally.
I meant to ask last time...what's the "High Yield Master II Option Adjusted Spread"? It looks important.
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Spread between junk and govt bond yields, which directly correlates to bull/bear markets
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01-09-2019, 03:32 PM
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#227
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffporfirio
Spread between junk and govt bond yields, which directly correlates to bull/bear markets
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I dont understand why that is.. And Google is being obtuse again. Mind explaining it for dummies? Seems interesting and worth watching.
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01-09-2019, 03:42 PM
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#228
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Scoring Winger
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Reposting
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffporfirio
Wanted to share.
I read today an article on the Globe and Mail that stated that the end of the bull market could be predicted by the widening spread of the yields between junk bonds and government bonds, and that this has worked 8 of the last 9 times.
Here is the article:
https://goo.gl/LJWqgk
Currently, the spread is narrow, so we might be in a steady bull market for the short term.
Here is a nice chart:
https://goo.gl/gQShSx
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01-10-2019, 06:37 AM
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#229
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!
I dont understand why that is.. And Google is being obtuse again. Mind explaining it for dummies? Seems interesting and worth watching.
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The article doesn’t explain why that is either, just that it worked 8/9 times. That might be 8/10 times now, but we don’t really know. There’s an old joke that the stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions, which I think gives you some idea of the accuracy of these predictions in general!
The truth is that no one knows though. People’s predictions and sentiments change with the wind, and that’s not a knock on anyone individually. It’s basically a statement of fact for humans, unfortunately.
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01-10-2019, 06:58 AM
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#230
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Franchise Player
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This article explains it a bit better...
https://bullmarkets.co/study-how-is-...-stock-market/
I don't think it's predictive in the short term. They seem to talk about 10 month patterns and longer time frames. I just like learning about this stuff. Smart money in bonds. Dumb money in stocks. I wonder though if that is fundamentally changing.
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01-10-2019, 07:10 PM
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#231
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Toronto, Ontario
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I agree that nobody knows. It's hilariously annoying to hear every analyst claiming the economy will go bad when it's in a downturn, and that it's going to keep going up, up and up when it's in an upswing. Nobody does know, and half of those analysts are wrong. I'm sure technical indicators work to some degree, but it's all emotion for the most part (barring something economically catastrophic) so why listen to the bigwigs who play it off like they knew what was happening? Personally, I'm waiting for another 3% overall gain (this week was a good recovery), and I'm going to call it quits for the next year, more or less. If that happens I'd be at about a 4% loss for the year which I'm comfortable with at this point. When peoples' emotions are thrown for a wack as has happened this past month, it really makes the market swing wildly, and personally while I don't worry or stress, I do get annoyed those days when I check in first thing in the morning and see a 3% loss. It personally gets me pissy for a few hours and I don't like it. So once this China deal comes, and if it doesn't come with a bunch of false positives along the way, it should amount to a nice pop. Hopefully it's in the next month and I can just pull out.
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01-10-2019, 07:24 PM
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#232
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Memento Mori
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The inverted yield curve and a recession following is a recent discovery (post-2008). That is, maybe other people knew about it but it was not as well known as it is now.
It could just be coincidence.
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01-11-2019, 06:34 AM
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#233
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shazam
The inverted yield curve and a recession following is a recent discovery (post-2008). That is, maybe other people knew about it but it was not as well known as it is now.
It could just be coincidence.
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I disagree though. The inverted yield curve isn’t new at all, and the curve has inverted and we haven’t fallen into recession every time. To me if you get false positives, it’s virtually useless, because there’s no point. You’re back to having to decide based on other things anyway.
I find these “indicators” or whatever really interesting. There are the seasonal methods with the most well known being “sell in May and go away”, the January Effect. One guy wrote a book called the October Method and the list goes on. Then you have the lipstick indicator, white paint, ladies hems and of course the Superbowl indicator. I’m definitely missing some, and as interesting as they all can be and fun to check out, none work. I’ve read some scholarly research on these topics (which I mainly read thinking “they got paid to check this?!) and the conclusions were basically that sometimes it works, and maybe a majority of the time but not always.
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01-11-2019, 06:52 AM
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#234
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Memento Mori
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Just saying what Scott Barlow said:
Quote:
The yield curve also retains its reputation as an effective predictor of U.S. economic recessions. A curve inversion – when the 10-year yield falls below the two-year yield – has preceded all recent U.S. recessions.
Importantly, the yield curve was not as widely followed by strategists and investors when it last signalled a recession ahead of the financial crisis. There has historically been a 14-month average delay between a curve inversion and a recession, but with more market participants following the yield curve now, markets are likely to react much more strongly if it does invert.
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If you don't pass this sig to ten of your friends, you will become an Oilers fan.
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01-11-2019, 08:39 AM
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#235
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shazam
Just saying what Scott Barlow said:
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Yeah and I read his stuff all the time as well. To be clear, I just like discussing these things and I'm not attacking you or anyone else on these things (in case it comes across that way).
But let's pretend that Barlow is right in that article (which I remember reading back in the fall sometime?). I'm not sure what you do with that information? Like if we have a recession and let's pretend its September 2019...what does that mean for today? I think that selling everything today and sitting on the sidelines would be questionable for a few reasons. What if you're wrong? What if all we had here is a routine, healthy pullback and the fed stepped in and made sure that everything was decent and we saw a recovery and "business as usual"? And if you're right, you've foregone basically 3 quarters worth of dividends and whatever gains you would have had for the next 9 months. But just as importantly, what if you're right that the recession is coming and that winds up being a 20% decline from the peak...which still leaves you significantly above where you bought in to begin with? I'm just not sure that selling and trying to time a reentry is the right course of action for a long term investor.
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01-16-2019, 05:54 PM
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#236
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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I don’t know if many around here care, particularly, but RIP Jack Bogle. A true legend and innovator in finance passed away at 89 today.
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01-17-2019, 08:24 AM
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#237
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
I don’t know if many around here care, particularly, but RIP Jack Bogle. A true legend and innovator in finance passed away at 89 today.
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Big loss, in terms of humanity losing a thoroughly decent person. From all reports, Jack Bogle was an incredibly humble yet super-smart man.
His legacy, however, will continue to live on (perhaps not so much in this thread). Low cost index fund investing long-term to build wealth and general financial planning should be thought in high school as much as any of the sciences, IMO.
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01-18-2019, 04:07 PM
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#238
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Franchise Player
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The biggest thing people don't know about Jack Bogle is that he intentionally made Vanguard a mutual. So the vanguard fund management business is actually owned by the investors in the vanguard mutual funds. Any profits go back to the fund holders.
He could have easily made Vanguard a for-profit owned by himself, and his low-cost indexing approach would have still taken off. He would easily have been a multi-billionaire, but chose to give that up to make his funds even lower cost. He basically gave those billions to his customers.
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04-11-2019, 10:37 AM
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#239
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: N/A
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I have some cash I am looking to invest, what is looking good out there right now?
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04-11-2019, 10:59 AM
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#240
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Memento Mori
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
Yeah and I read his stuff all the time as well. To be clear, I just like discussing these things and I'm not attacking you or anyone else on these things (in case it comes across that way).
But let's pretend that Barlow is right in that article (which I remember reading back in the fall sometime?). I'm not sure what you do with that information? Like if we have a recession and let's pretend its September 2019...what does that mean for today? I think that selling everything today and sitting on the sidelines would be questionable for a few reasons. What if you're wrong? What if all we had here is a routine, healthy pullback and the fed stepped in and made sure that everything was decent and we saw a recovery and "business as usual"? And if you're right, you've foregone basically 3 quarters worth of dividends and whatever gains you would have had for the next 9 months. But just as importantly, what if you're right that the recession is coming and that winds up being a 20% decline from the peak...which still leaves you significantly above where you bought in to begin with? I'm just not sure that selling and trying to time a reentry is the right course of action for a long term investor.
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Oh, um, nothing at all, really. There really is no timing the market.
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If you don't pass this sig to ten of your friends, you will become an Oilers fan.
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