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Old 11-01-2018, 08:01 AM   #1
GranteedEV
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Default Sam Bennett at center - Why I Do Not Believe It Was A Failure

Something has nagged away at me for the last year and that's the fact that the Flames abandoned Bennett as a center and decided to make him a full time winger. The reason this is the case is because my eyes keep telling me that Bennett was not only a solid two-way center, but easily one of the three best on this roster (not including Lindholm, who obviously hasn't been here for long).

The obvious argument against Bennett as a center is that he didn't put up enough points at the position, and there are many visual anecdotes as for why, usually talking about "not utilizing linemates". But my rebuttal is as follows:

Is outscoring the opponent 3:2 less valuable than outscoring the opponent 3:2 if the latter just means more goals for everyone?

That is to say, if a center is making "safer" plays, and the grand result is that the Flames are outscoring the opponent when his line is on the ice, why must this be scrutinized more than if he were making scoring plays that result in more goals for, but even more goals against? Below I've attached the results of the two winger pairs, along with all of the centers who saw at least 100 minutes of ice time between those wingers pairs whenever multiple centers did so. All statistics are score-adjusted. Obtained From Corsica.Hockey.

Legend
TOI - time on ice (5v5 minutes)
GF% - Goals For Percentage
xGF% - expected Goals For Percentage
Rel - performance relative to how the team was performing in those same games
ZSR - Faceoff Zone Start Ration



That's not... a whole lot of difference. At the very least, to me it doesn't seem like the kind of difference that makes one player a failed center while the other two are career centers.

So why did it look that way to the eye test?

Because Bennett spent more time with Versteeg and Brouwer than the other centers did over that two year span. Even though all five of these lines were outscoring opponents, the actual scoring opportunities themselves weren't there whenever Brouwer was involved. Meanwhile, Gaudreau and Monahan and the 3M line were all attached to the hip, leaving Bennett with the extras.

But let's set that aside for a moment and get to what I really want to talk about:

Sam Bennett's defensive play. To me, centers are most effective when they:

- support their defensemen below the hash marks, including the net front area
- support all four skaters by creating passing lanes for clean breakouts
- pressure the puck to help clog the neutral zone
- get the puck out of forechecking pressure without throwing it away

And my visual observation was always that Bennett did these things not just well, but especially well. He made it possible for the team to employ guys like Matt Bartkowski because he covered for their shortcomings in the defensive zone. None of these areas have much to do with offensive production. How can you ever use points to evaluate these things? Yes - The Flames played very low event hockey when Bennett was on the ice and this hurt his statistics - but it kept games within reach and I believe played a part in our playoff push even the goals and assists weren't coming.

The problem the Flames ran into in 2017-18 was that the third line wasn't scoring. Brouwer had worn out his top nine opportunity, Versteeg gave the puck away in the offensive zone multiple times per game before he was finally shut down, Jagr's hands had left him behind, and Bennett's puck luck hit career lows. The solution to this was obvious - call up Mark Jankowski. I do not disagree this was supposed to help the third line because it added a mobile, skilled forward to a line that needed one.

The problem? I believe Jankowski is inferior to Bennett in the defensive areas I outlined above. This manifested in a third line that was no longer playing a tight checking game but instead reliant on making the most of its offensive zone time. Bennett's edges, puck skills, and general ability to dominate away from the puck - both physically and with positioning - were both limited on the wing and Jankowski struggled with the responsibilities inherent to the position. Even though the Flames upgraded notably from Bartkowski to Kulak around the seventh or eighth game of the season, they threw away any advantage that might have brought by forcing Jankowski to play as the 3C. At least, that's my assertion. Do the numbers back up what my eyes told me?

Perhaps the easiest way to confirm or deny that is by looking at expected goals against rates. It's easy to have a control because Stajan, Backlund, and Monahan were the 1, 2, and 4 centers in both 2017-18 and 2016-17.



So between the two years:

Backlund's xGA was somehow identical.
Stajan's chance suppression improved.
Monahan's chance suppression got worse by -0.25. A pretty big drop off.

The switch from Bennett to Jankowski though? That was a drop of expected goals of -0.4 - the most significant dropoff and while it doesn't outright confirm what my eyes told me, I think it's worth considering - because I didn't know the numbers before right now. Maybe that's just confirmation bias but I do contend the 2017-18 Flames as a team didn't play the tight checking neutral zone game they were capable of, and this felt to my eyes the main reason why.

Either way, it's my opinion that Sam Bennett is a solid two-way center. Even if he were to not score at greater than a third line rate, that's acceptable because he won't give much up defensively if he's at center. He can't impact the game the same way at wing, and I do not believe Jankowski can impact the same way as 3C. From what I have observed, Ryan is also not as strong or impactful defensively. Czarnik might be a good center but he was outright signed to be a winger. Dube is a rookie. Of these five players, it's insane we haven't tried Bennett down the middle as the third line center. He's hardly scoring as a winger so that's not much of an excuse either.

Additionally, and I acknowledge it's a minor point, but while Bennett hasn't played center regularly for almost a year, he's actually improved on the faceoff dot to 55.3% the last season and this whereas he was sitting at 46.1% in his first two years. He may be a guy you want taking faceoffs now, which may have caused his line to struggle in the offensive zone more earlier in his career ( I don't believe it affected his defensive play, though). Bennett has even won 11 of 16 faceoffs he's taken this year and many of them have been clean wins - in the last game Rick Ball was quite surprised at Bennett's win but if that's something you can begin to depend on, he may even be the best option on the left circle faceoff during the penalty kill and power play - as great as Backlund is he tends to lose those draws.

Finally, I want to remind everyone of how he was arguably our best 5 on 5 player in the 2016-17 playoffs. Treliving even said this in an interview. How can a player be a failed center if he's going head to head against a guy like Ryan Kesler successfully?

I want to see any of the following third lines be tried:

Czarnik-Bennett-Neal
Frolik-Bennett-Neal
Jankowski-Bennett-Neal (it's different from Bennett-Jankowski-Neal even though it's the same players)
Dube-Bennett-Neal (likewise)
Ryan-Bennett-Neal (likewise)

These are five third line combinations that could help us not only improve game-to-game, but possibly become a 2B line as right now our third line's weakest link is consistently the center. The Czarnik option is especially appealing. We've scratched him because he, dube and ryan would be too undersized together. This option keeps him in the top 9 (where he probably belongs), and it keeps him in games (where he definitely belongs).
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Old 11-01-2018, 08:38 AM   #2
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I always give GranteedEV a hard time about this. He's been beating this horse for a long time now. I've always said that, imo, Bennett plays a W game. To me, he's not a fit at C. Still, I appreciate all the work and research in the OP's post.
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Old 11-01-2018, 08:42 AM   #3
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Honestly I've never really liked Bennett at center. However with Janko and Ryan both playing like 4Cs I would be willing to give him another look at 3c. Really unfortunate that Janko hasn't looked good this year.
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Old 11-01-2018, 08:47 AM   #4
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See, I think it is a good analysis. Unfortunate for Bennett that he was drafted a year after Monahan because their first years were comparable. Monahan in his second year got paired up with Gaudreau (an elite talent), while Bennett as a rookie played with Backlund and Frolik. The next year Hudler played with the top line and they were great, they put Tkachuk with Backlund and Frolik and put Sam in the 3rd line blender.

Nice to see some stats that help try to analyze independent of the impression you get from a season long set of ice time with a wildly different opportunity

Even now, it seems Peters has been searching for the right linemates. Interestingly, usually coaches run with pairs, and usually those pairs are C-wing, but in Bennett’s case he has been paired 60 pct of the time with Neal, and with those two a mix of Jankowski, Ryan, Backlund and Dube. I don’t think Peters knows if he wants Sam at C or W and is trying to make up his mind

We need to remember as well his age in the sense that he has been maturing physically, and players who play a physical game benefit from that. He has been one of the most noticeable players night in and night out and that is nice to see.

I like the kid and Jankowski has struggled so far. Also Lindholm is a capable C, but then again isxdeadly as a winger. And the coach loves Ryan.

Nice problem to have as the Flames, with more guys who can play C than they can possibly use.
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Old 11-01-2018, 08:50 AM   #5
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Bennett just isn't a smart hockey player. He's a bang and crash and pray you get a dirty rebound goal type of player. You want smart, responsible, cerebral people a C. For that reason alone, I much prefer him on the wing. It's nice that he can win faceoffs. Have him do that on his strong hand in the offensive zone, and then swap back to wing after the draw.
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Old 11-01-2018, 08:59 AM   #6
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^ I think Bennett is a guy that plays well at a high pace, and with players who can play at a high pace.
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:01 AM   #7
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Well thought out ...

add in the fact that he's good on draws too (best centerman last year).

This year he's better in his own zone as well, overall awareness seems to have improved. I almost wonder if he had that click moment where the pace of play at the NHL level has slowed down in his mind enough where he can start doing some of the things he did at the junior level again.
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:03 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
^ I think Bennett is a guy that plays well at a high pace, and with players who can play at a high pace.
Dube and Czarnik? That saddles Bennett with two rookies but Dube at least exhibits a high hockey IQ and Czarnik is a burner. It's also a pretty lightweight line, though both Bennett and Dube are pretty fearless.
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:07 AM   #9
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Well done write up, I appreciate the time and effort put into this and so I thank you for that.

I've always been a Bennett fan, I think to some extent GG "oilered" his development and really set us back a few years.

With that being said I'd still like to see Calgary go with:

Tkachuk - Bennett - Neal

And let it ride for a few games, not just a few shifts. Perhaps nothing comes of it, but I feel a line made-up of those 3 gentleman would at the very least be extremely hard to play against, 2 pests and a guy who has no issue laying the body and dropping the gloves if need be.

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Old 11-01-2018, 09:14 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache View Post
^ I think Bennett is a guy that plays well at a high pace, and with players who can play at a high pace.
I agree with this. While he may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, I think his biggest difficulty in his first few years was playing with slow players. He needs someone else who can make plays at speed.

As far as being a centre, I think it's worth continuing to investigate. Seeing how Peters likes to experiment I won't be surprised if we see it at some point.

As a fan, Peters has eliminated line-ups as something we fans can gets our knickers in a knot about. We've settling into more or less set lines, but he's never afraid to mix it up. Not that we can't discuss it, because it's always interesting. But I do laugh when people get all worked up about it. (Not that the OP was)
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:16 AM   #11
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Dube and Czarnik? That saddles Bennett with two rookies but Dube at least exhibits a high hockey IQ and Czarnik is a burner. It's also a pretty lightweight line, though both Bennett and Dube are pretty fearless.
In terms of makeup (Grinder center, two speedy wingers) that would kind of remind me of Guentzel-Crosby-Sheary from the 2016-17 Penguins. I recall that line having a lot of difficulty clearing the D zone but definitely burned opponents on the rush.
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:18 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyler View Post
Bennett just isn't a smart hockey player. He's a bang and crash and pray you get a dirty rebound goal type of player. You want smart, responsible, cerebral people a C. For that reason alone, I much prefer him on the wing. It's nice that he can win faceoffs. Have him do that on his strong hand in the offensive zone, and then swap back to wing after the draw.
Hate to say it but this is more or less true.
A lot of the job of a center is to dish the puck, Bennett can't do that at the NHL level.
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:30 AM   #13
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Hate to say it but this is more or less true.
A lot of the job of a center is to dish the puck, Bennett can't do that at the NHL level.
This season he is though.

How many times do we see him take the line on the left side, delay and then whip the puck to a trailer creating a scoring chance.

His vision is up this year. The pace is slowing down for him.
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:44 AM   #14
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This season he is though.

How many times do we see him take the line on the left side, delay and then whip the puck to a trailer creating a scoring chance.

His vision is up this year. The pace is slowing down for him.
I've been happy with his play this year overall but I can only recall a handful of plays you are describing. He still struggles to consistently create or finish plays off in the offensive zone and I think fans are just going to have to live with that.

For me, he's a solid third line energy guy who can fill in the top 6 when needed and play special teams. Nothing to slouch at based on where he's come from the last two years.
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:48 AM   #15
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As bingo said, bennett has looked a lot better this year because the pace of game is slowing down for him and this is encouraging. I believe this is especially true of his game on the rush and backcheck.

However, his defensive zone play is still off and he has trouble knowing where to be and has trouble successfully breaking out of the defensive zone. And his offensive zone cycle game is still off. I think this continues to be because he still has trouble knowing where to be on the ice. This makes it harder for him to use his linemates as many say. What goes unsaid is that it also makes it harder for his linemates to use him. Does this stem from not knowing how to play as a winger?? I think that's part of it.

And these two points is why I think EV is right - put him back at center. Because, if he was good at center before and the pace has slowed down for him, then perhaps he'll be an even better centre now. And if the only thing holding him back now is positioning, then maybe putting him back to the center position allows him to take that final step he needs to take to become a very good nhl player.
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:49 AM   #16
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I've been happy with his play this year overall but I can only recall a handful of plays you are describing. He still struggles to consistently create or finish plays off in the offensive zone and I think fans are just going to have to live with that.

For me, he's a solid third line energy guy who can fill in the top 6 when needed and play special teams. Nothing to slouch at based on where he's come from the last two years.
Literally every game of late ... 10 in a row?

But overall I don't disagree. I don't think a turnaround now resets the clock back to 2014 and he becomes elite again.

Last year he stopped the skid, but you had to dig deep to see it. This year he has a coach that likes him and is awarding "jam" which has bought him time to find his confidence again.

With that said he's off probation, but he's not top six bound until he starts producing.
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Old 11-01-2018, 09:56 AM   #17
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This season he is though.

How many times do we see him take the line on the left side, delay and then whip the puck to a trailer creating a scoring chance.

His vision is up this year. The pace is slowing down for him.
I think this is what I've noticed most of all. Seems like he's put on some weight, and is flying around the ice and doesn't seem like he's arriving late to the play like it sometimes looked in the past.

The highlight videos on CP in the offseason really demonstrated that his play along the boards has seriously improved over his career, to the point that I think he and Thachuk are our two best wingers at retrieving and winning battles along the boards at this point.

That ability and the way he is able to now dish the puck and get to scoring areas from the wing are the reasons I like him on the wing and I would be really interested to see the same stats breakdown with him on a line as the LW versus other guys.


The problem with Bennett on the wing is his Ice time will always be limited behind Thachuk and Gaudreau but perhaps at 3C he sees more ice?

I haven't really been impressed with Frolik and if there was a way to get either Bennett or Thachuk comfortable on the right side I think that a Backlund, Chuckie, Bennett line would be great and it would give the team a second faceoff option on that line.

I don't think peters wants to do that, and I believe he is leaving Bennett with Neal in the hopes that he can get neal going somehow, as Bennett has been very effective so far this season and maybe it'll rub off on Neal eventually.
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Old 11-01-2018, 10:05 AM   #18
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I've been happy with his play this year overall but I can only recall a handful of plays you are describing. He still struggles to consistently create or finish plays off in the offensive zone and I think fans are just going to have to live with that.
He's not Gaudreau, but you're selling him short. He creates quite a bit. However:

1) He lacks confidence as a passer which I believe has a lot to do with his role in offensive situations such as the PP being so limited (he was a more confident passer up until halfway into his second year, when he was taken off the PP and he hasn't recovered). When he's confident (not only in himself, but the pass receiver) he's making passes like this:



and this:



When he's not confident, he is playing a banal, safe cycle game along the boards until he or his linemates inevitably cough it up because cycling along the boards is not what it used to be in the days of the Sedins and Getzlaf/Perry.

But that won't change whether he's a center or a winger, because once you're set up in the offensive zone positional role mean little outside of who is going to be the F3 (and yes, someone like Frolik would be a superior F3 than Bennett, as is the case on the 3M line even though Backlund is the C)

2) His linemates haven't had much finish so far. Neal's had a plethora of scoring chances that he's flubbed. Jankowski and Hanifin have had some grade A setups by Bennett that should have been in the back of the net. Dube is still looking for his first goal and not for a lack of trying.

3) His ice time is so, so limited. Both at ES and Power Play. Can't create if you're not there. Remember when Hartley had him on the power play(for real, not the way he's been used the last year and a half), he was able to make plays like this:



I don't see any of those plays as outliers, although I can see why some might think they are. Whenever AC releases Bennett videos they're way too full of nice plays to just say he doesn't create consistently.

BTW - Bennett played center in each of the three games above. I suspect that as a center he touches the puck more (not including the Brouwer era) and that might also help his confidence in his creativity going forward.
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Old 11-01-2018, 10:13 AM   #19
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To me Bennett this year seems to be more confident and have better control of his play. Where last year his opponents usually handled him with ease, this year he seems to be more equipped to handle his opponent.

Also his willingness to be tough on his opponents seems to be a spark plug for the team. In addition I think his defensive play is becoming much more effective.

All in all, although he isn't the scoring centre we thought we were getting, I think he is gradually becoming a more important part of our team.
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Old 11-01-2018, 10:25 AM   #20
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Most of Bennett's struggles seem to be mental. If moving him to the wing is what it took to get him his confidence back, then maybe once he's really rolling later in the year we'll see him back at centre.
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